US Afghan Pullout: Any Spillover of Possible Afghan Civil War into Pakistan?

[RiazHaq]

US Afghan Pullout: Any Spillover of Possible Afghan Civil War into Pakistan?

Many fear the return to civil war in Afghanistan after the US pull-out . Are these fears well-founded? If so, who will be the main combatan...

www.southasiainvestor.com

Many fear the return to civil war in Afghanistan after the US pull-out. Are these fears well-founded? If so, who will be the main combatants in such a civil war? The Afghan Taliban? Or notorious warlords of yesteryears like Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Ismael Khan, Abdur Rashid Dostum and progeny of Ahmad Shah Masood? Or terror groups like ISIS, TTP, ETIM, IMU, etc etc.?


Can the Northern Alliance, made up mainly of Tajiks and Uzbeks, reconstitute itself? Who will back them? Will India back them? Russia, China and Iran are already seriously talking with the Afghan Taliban.
Can the Afghan Taliban quickly prevail over other groups to stabilize Afghanistan? Will China and Russia help?
How's Pakistan's geo-economic pivot working out? Will Chinese investment in CPEC and Russian involvement in Karachi-Lahore gas pipeline help build Pakistan's geo-economic strategy? Will both of them help Pakistan if India attempts to disrupt these projects with covert attacks via proxies?
How does the creation of US-led QUAD with Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan help Pakistan's geo-strategic pivot? Will it help bring stability to Afghanistan?
How's US-China technology war unfolding? Is the US succeeding in denying supply chain inputs to the Chinese semiconductor industry?
Please watch this video for a discussion of the above questions:

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

US CIA Drone Warfare in Afghanistan and Pakistan

What if Pakistan Had Said No to US After 911?

Husain Haqqani vs Riaz Haq on India vs Pakistan

Impact of Trump's Top Picks on Pakistan

Husain Haqqani Advising Trump on Pakistan Policy?

Gall-Haqqani-Paul Narrative on Pakistan

Pakistan-China-Russia vs India-US-Japan

Robert Gates' Straight Talk on Pakistan's "Lies and Deceit"

Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel

US Afghan Pullout: Any Spillover of Possible Afghan Civil War into Pakistan?

Many fear the return to civil war in Afghanistan after the US pull-out . Are these fears well-founded? If so, who will be the main combatan...

www.southasiainvestor.com

 

[maverick1977]

nope, wont happen

 

[RiazHaq]

#China, #Pakistan to take joint actions to tackle terrorist spillover from #Afghanistan. #CPEC #dasu - Global Times https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1229542.shtml#.YP44znbbOsw.twitter

As Afghan-Taliban peace talks failed to reach breakthrough and security threats remain high, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a meeting with Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi in China on Saturday. They have both agreed to take joint actions to tackle the spillover effect from the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan.

China and Pakistan are facing a direct effect from the worsening situation in Afghanistan, and it is one of the important agendas of Qureshi's visit to China to enhance cooperation and deal with the situation, Wang said.

China and Pakistan will pursue the hope for peace in an attempt to prevent a civil war in Afghanistan, and mediate for negotiations between the Afghans, Wang said.

China and Pakistan will jointly combat terrorism, push all major forces in Afghanistan to draw a clear line with terrorism, resolutely crack down on terrorist forces such as the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), and prevent Afghanistan from falling again into being a hotbed for terrorism, Wang said. He stressed that there should be a push for cooperation between Afghanistan's neighboring countries to bring peace and stability in Afghanistan.

The meeting was arranged amid "very important and sensitive" time, as the Afghan government and the Taliban failed to reach an agreement, and turbulence within the country is yet to be subdued and is spilling over to neighboring regions, Qian Feng, director of the research department at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University, told the Global Times on Sunday.

On July 14, a terrorist attack on a bus in Pakistan claimed the lives of nine Chinese nationals who worked at the Dasu hydropower station, a joint program between the two countries. Although no organization has claimed responsibility yet, Chinese experts believed that terrorist groups such as Pakistani Taliban or the ETIM were behind the attack.

Due to a changing environment in Afghanistan, the ETIM terrorists may have fled to Pakistan where they collaborated with the Pakistani Taliban to launch an attack on China, some experts have said. But they also warned that if the situation in Afghanistan further deteriorates, Pakistan as well as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will be in danger.

Qian said that China, Pakistan and Afghanistan are all important members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), thus the joint action is a way to unite other regional and relevant countries to provide solution for the Afghan situation. "Since a significant solution needs time to put forward, such a small step may serve as a kick starter."

The US' hasty troop withdrawal from Afghanistan neither achieved the anti-terrorism goal, nor brought peace to the country, but created a new security black hole there, Wang said during his meeting with Qureshi.

US President Joe Biden on Friday authorized up to $100 million from an emergency fund to meet "unexpected urgent" refugee needs stemming from the situation in Afghanistan, and allocated $3.3 billion for the security forces of Afghanistan.

In recent days, the US has launched several airstrikes targeting Taliban positions in support of faltering Afghan government forces.

Apparently, the US doesn't want to facilitate stability in the country, as Washington's financial support for the Afghan government will further escalate the country's turmoil, Diao Daming, an associate professor at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, told the Global Times.

Diao also said that if the US is looking for a solution to a stable Middle East, it should unite with Afghanistan's neighboring countries, promote a peaceful reconciliation via dialogue and negotiation.

 

[RiazHaq]

#US ‘really messed it up’ in #Afghanistan...they (#Americans) tried to look for a military solution in Afghanistan, when there never was one", says #Pakistan Prime Minister #ImranKhan in an interview with @JudyWoodruff of @NewsHour. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/u...istan-says-pakistan-prime-minister-imran-khan

Judy Woodruff:

I hear that message.

At the same time, do you expect that, if the Taliban does succeed in Afghanistan, you're going to have a country next door where women, for one thing, are not allowed to have an education after the age of 8, that you're going to have a country run by a group of terrorists, in effect?

Imran Khan:

But, Judy, what are we supposed to do about it?

I mean, here were the U.S. for two decades in Afghanistan trying to force a military solution. The reason why we are in this position now is because the military solution failed. Now, what choices have we got? The best choice is that somehow we have a political settlement in Afghanistan where it is, as I repeat, an inclusive government.

So, Taliban sit down with the other side and they form an inclusive government. This is the best outcome. There is no other outcome, because the military solution has failed.

Judy Woodruff:

Are you prepared to accept Taliban victory next door? You're saying, in essence, there's nothing you — nothing more Pakistan can do.

Imran Khan:

Absolutely, there's nothing more we can do, except push them as much as we can for a political settlement. That's all.

But what happens in Afghanistan, we can only pray that the people of Afghanistan decide what government they want. And so we hope that that's what will happen in the end; they will form some sort of an inclusive government.

But that's for people of Afghanistan. As far as Pakistan is concerned, we have done what we can.

Judy Woodruff:

Last thing.

I do want to ask you, just take just a moment to ask you about a comment you made about the role of women in your country. You said in an interview last month that women themselves bear a large part of the responsibility for the concerning rise in the number of rape cases in Pakistan.

I want to ask you if you truly believe that. I mean, you're someone, you have lived in the West. You have traveled widely around the world. Do you believe women bear a large part of the responsibility for this?



Imran Khan:

Look, Judy, anyone who commits rape, solely and solely, that person is responsible. So let's be clear about that.

No matter whatever — how much ever a woman is provocative or whatever she wears, the person who commits rape, he is fully responsible. Never is the victim responsible.

My comments were completely taken out of context. They were simply talking about Pakistan society, where we are having a rise, a sharp rise in sex crimes. And sex crime does not include just women. More than rape are child abuse, which is going through the roof.

 

[FuturePAF]

#US ‘really messed it up’ in #Afghanistan...they (#Americans) tried to look for a military solution in Afghanistan, when there never was one", says #Pakistan Prime Minister #ImranKhan in an interview with @JudyWoodruff of @NewsHour. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/u...istan-says-pakistan-prime-minister-imran-khan

Judy Woodruff:

I hear that message.

At the same time, do you expect that, if the Taliban does succeed in Afghanistan, you're going to have a country next door where women, for one thing, are not allowed to have an education after the age of 8, that you're going to have a country run by a group of terrorists, in effect?

Imran Khan:

But, Judy, what are we supposed to do about it?

I mean, here were the U.S. for two decades in Afghanistan trying to force a military solution. The reason why we are in this position now is because the military solution failed. Now, what choices have we got? The best choice is that somehow we have a political settlement in Afghanistan where it is, as I repeat, an inclusive government.

So, Taliban sit down with the other side and they form an inclusive government. This is the best outcome. There is no other outcome, because the military solution has failed.

Judy Woodruff:

Are you prepared to accept Taliban victory next door? You're saying, in essence, there's nothing you — nothing more Pakistan can do.

Imran Khan:

Absolutely, there's nothing more we can do, except push them as much as we can for a political settlement. That's all.

But what happens in Afghanistan, we can only pray that the people of Afghanistan decide what government they want. And so we hope that that's what will happen in the end; they will form some sort of an inclusive government.

But that's for people of Afghanistan. As far as Pakistan is concerned, we have done what we can.

Judy Woodruff:

Last thing.

I do want to ask you, just take just a moment to ask you about a comment you made about the role of women in your country. You said in an interview last month that women themselves bear a large part of the responsibility for the concerning rise in the number of rape cases in Pakistan.

I want to ask you if you truly believe that. I mean, you're someone, you have lived in the West. You have traveled widely around the world. Do you believe women bear a large part of the responsibility for this?



Imran Khan:

Look, Judy, anyone who commits rape, solely and solely, that person is responsible. So let's be clear about that.

No matter whatever — how much ever a woman is provocative or whatever she wears, the person who commits rape, he is fully responsible. Never is the victim responsible.

My comments were completely taken out of context. They were simply talking about Pakistan society, where we are having a rise, a sharp rise in sex crimes. And sex crime does not include just women. More than rape are child abuse, which is going through the roof.

Decent interview by the PM, especially clarifying the issue about Purdah. Hope he gets a few more talking points to flush out some detailed answers for the questions being asked. He could have said, more trade with Pakistan will help Pakistan be more stable which would have a stabilizing effect on Afghanistan. Perhaps, he is ok with keeping some statement vague because he knows the fewer the talking points, the more likely it is to get through to the targeted audience.

 

[RiazHaq]

#US, #India agree to expand multilateral security partnership to face #China's challenge & #Afghan situation. #Washington wants #Delhi to help isolate China. #Blinken talks of “shared values & democratic principles” #Afghanistan #Pakistan #QUAD https://apnews.com/article/governme...rus-pandemic-a79ada577ba8c1273f060681e980c7f6

The top diplomats of India and the United States pledged Wednesday to expand their multilateral security partnership, underscoring the deepening of ties between two countries concerned over China’s growing influence in the region.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met in New Delhi and sought to strengthen a regional front against Beijing’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and their cooperation in Afghanistan.

They also lauded each country’s help in fighting the coronavirus and said their vaccine partnership is an effort to end the pandemic.

“There are few relationships in the world that are more vital than one between the U.S. and India. We are the world’s two leading democracies and our diversity fuels our national strength,” Blinken said at a joint news conference.

Washington has made no secret of the U.S. desire for India’s help in isolating China. The two countries have steadily ramped up their military relationship and signed a string of defense deals.

The U.S. and India are part of the Quad regional alliance that also includes Japan and Australia and focuses on China’s growing economic and military strength. China has called the Quad an attempt to contain its ambitions.

Blinken’s India visit comes just days after the No. 2 U.S. diplomat, Wendy Sherman, was in China.

Blinken said he and Jaishankar also discussed regional security issues including Afghanistan, where the U.S. is expected to complete its military withdrawal in August. He called India’s contribution to the stability of Afghanistan “vital.”

Blinken said there was no “military solution” to the conflict in Afghanistan and that the country would turn into a “pariah state” if the Taliban takes control by force.

“We will continue to work together to sustain the gains of the Afghan people and support regional stability after the withdrawal of coalition forces from the country,” Blinken said.

Jaishankar said the world wishes to see an “independent, sovereign, democratic and stable Afghanistan at peace with itself and with its neighbors,” and cautioned that the country’s “independence and sovereignty will only be ensured if it is free from malign influences.”

New Delhi has often expressed concern that a Taliban takeover could lead to security threats against India.

India has provided Afghan security forces with operational training and military equipment, even though it has had no troops on the ground. It has also provided more than $2 billion in development aid to Afghanistan.

In June, India’s foreign ministry said it was in contact with “various stakeholders” in Afghanistan to discuss its future. More recently, officials from the two countries have increased mutual visits.

“New Delhi is clearly stepping up its game on the Afghanistan front,” said Micheal Kugelman of the Asia Program at the Washington-based Wilson Center. “Its decision to engage more in regional diplomacy on Afghanistan signifies a desire to be more of a player than it has in the past.”

In a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi later Wednesday, Blinken discussed the pandemic, security and defense cooperation, including Quad, and “shared values and democratic principles,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said.

Earlier during his visit, Blinken spoke to civil society leaders and said fundamental freedoms and rule of law are “tenets of democracies” like the U.S. and India.

 

[RiazHaq]

China's FM welcomes #Taliban leader Mullah Baradar in Tianjin. #Beijing is investing heavily in #CentralAsia in recent years through its Belt and Road Initiative (#BRI) and offered to extend the #China-#Pakistan Economic Corridor (#CPEC) into #Afghanistan. https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/29/china/china-taliban-tianjin-afghanistan-intl-hnk/index.html

China's Foreign Minister met with senior leaders of the Taliban in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin on Wednesday in the latest sign of warming ties between Beijing and the resurgent Islamist group.

During a meeting with Taliban's co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who heads the group's political committee, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi described the Taliban as an important military and political force in Afghanistan, and said he expected the Taliban to play an important role in the country's "peace, reconciliation and reconstruction process," according to China's Foreign Ministry.
Following the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban has rapidly expanded its presence -- and now controls large swathes of country. The speed at which Afghan security forces have lost control to the Taliban has shocked many, and led to concerns the capital Kabul could be next to fall. All foreign forces are expected to leave Afghanistan by August 31.
Wednesday's meeting, which was also attended by the heads of the Taliban's religious and publicity committees, is the latest move by the Chinese government to strengthen its relationship with the Islamist group.

Beijing has invested heavily in Central Asia in recent years through its Belt and Road trade and infrastructure scheme, and China's Foreign Ministry has previously discussed the possibility of extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan.
During Wednesday's meeting, Wang referred to Afghanistan as China's largest neighbor, and emphasized the fate of the country should be "in the hands of the Afghan people."
Wang said the withdrawal of American and NATO troops from Afghanistan under US President Joe Biden marked the "failure of the US' policy towards Afghanistan," as well as an opportunity for the country to stabilize and develop.
"(China) respects Afghanistan's sovereign independence and territorial integrity, (and) always insists on non-interference in Afghanistan's internal affairs," Wang said.
For its part, the Islamist group told the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post in early July that it considered China a "welcome friend."
Wang also mentioned the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) which he called an "international terrorist organization," and said the Taliban should "completely sever all ties" with the group to promote regional stability.
The Chinese government has regularly accused the ETIM of planning and undertaking terrorist attacks in Xinjiang, accusations it has used to justify its widespread crackdown in the Western region.
Speaking in India on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said both Washington and New Delhi had a "strong interest in a peaceful, secure and stable Afghanistan" and described the Taliban's military advances as "deeply troubling."
Blinken added that the US and its partners would continue to work together to "sustain the gains of the Afghan people and support regional stability after the withdrawal of coalition forces from the country."