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Ukraine war: What support is China giving Russia?

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Ukraine war: What support is China giving Russia?​

Published Feb. 20 2023

BBC News

China has become an increasingly important trading partner for Russia as it seeks to soften the impact of economic sanctions imposed by some countries in response to its invasion of Ukraine.
The United States now says Beijing is considering supplying weapons and ammunition to Russia, allegations which China strongly denies.

Is China providing Russia with weapons?​

China has been expanding its military production capabilities and is now the world's fourth largest arms exporter.

"China's weapons are getting more advanced now," says Siemon Wezeman from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
"Its drones, for example, are one area that Russia would be very interested in."

The US says Chinese firms have already provided "non-lethal support" to Russia, and that it has new information suggesting Beijing could soon provide "lethal support".

Maria Shagina, an expert in economic sanctions at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, says China has not overtly supplied Russia with weapons but may be secretly selling it hi-tech products which could be used for military purposes.

"There is evidence that China is the biggest exporter of semiconductors - often through shell companies in Hong Kong and the UAE - to Russia," she says.

"Some Chinese companies are also supplying civilian drones, exploiting the grey space between military and civilian purposes."

The US-based Center for Advanced Defense Studies says Chinese companies may be sending Russia electronic parts for anti-aircraft missile radars.

The US has also imposed sanctions on a Chinese company which Washington says has provided satellite imagery in support of Russian mercenary forces fighting in Ukraine.

Russia's most important trading partner​

After Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, Western nations imposed strict sanctions on Russia - banning imports of oil and exports of hi-tech products.

Many Western firms cut their connections with Russia entirely, and its trade with the US, UK, and EU countries slumped over the course of 2022.

However, China's overall trade with Russia hit a record high level of $190bn in 2022 - a 30% increase on the year before.

_128696006_814080fc-f806-4119-a315-ce70f0704b7e-2-71.png.webp


Russian imports from China increased 13% to $76bn and its exports to China increased by 43% to $114bn.
As Russia's trade with Western countries plunged in 2022, China became, by far and away, its most important trading partner.

_128689876_28335e13-7b7c-4a25-bead-ae94ebac7d72-1-52.png.webp


How much oil and gas is China buying from Russia?​

Almost half of all the Russian government's annual revenues come from oil and gas, and its sales to EU countries has plummeted over the past year as sanctions bite.
A significant amount of this shortfall has been made up with increased sales to Asia.


Russia exported twice as much liquid petroleum gas (LPG) to China in 2022 than it did the year before. It also delivered 50% more natural gas via the Power of Siberia pipeline, and 10% more crude oil.
The G7 group of economically developed countries, along with the European Union and Australia, has tried to impose a worldwide cap on the price of Russian oil transported by sea, but China has refused to comply and buys Russian crude at market prices.

There are also longer term plans to expand energy ties.
The two countries have agreed to build a new gas pipeline (the Power of Siberia 2). The existing one began operation in 2019, under a 30-year contract worth more than $400bn.

 
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As I have been predicting for years. Chinese Russian cooperation is only a matter of time. Two behemoth powers joining forces is a nightmare scenario for the Western powers.
 
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Russia is the only country which makes China suffer huge trade deficit

Russian exports of oil to China hit record high

World’s second largest economy soaks up supplies shunned by the West

ByRachel Millard21 February 2023 • 3:26pm

China is importing record amounts of oil from Russia as the world’s second largest economy soaks up supplies shunned by the West.

The country imported 1.66 million barrels of crude and fuel oil from Russia each day on average in January, according to Kpler data reported by Bloomberg.

It was the highest level of imports since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a year ago, which triggered huge disruption to global oil markets.

The stepping up of purchases by China comes as its economy rebounds following the lifting of Covid restrictions at the end of last year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand to rise to 101.9 million barrels per day this year, largely driven by China.

Beijing is also taking advantage of the substantial discount on Russian oil following Western sanctions.

Russia’s flagship Urals grade for export averaged $49.48 (£40.96) per barrel in January, compared to $82 per barrel for Brent Crude.

The EU and the UK banned imports of Russian crude in December, while G7 countries have imposed a price cap.

The G7 price cap aims to limit the revenue Russia can earn from oil sales globally, while keeping Russian oil flowing because of its importance to the global market.

Moscow’s oil revenues fell 48pc in January even as exports ramped up. Russia exported 8.2 million barrels of oil per day to global markets in January, according to the IEA, an increase on the previous month.

China and India are now the largest buyers of Russian crude following the Western boycott.

In its monthly outlook report for February, the IEA said Russia’s output in January was only 160,000 barrels per day lower than pre-war levels.

Output has so far “held up relatively well despite sanctions”, according to the IEA.

Russia said earlier this month it would cut its production by about 500,000 barrels per day, or about 5pc of its output, in response to the price caps.

The IEA said: “Nearly a year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global oil markets are trading in relative calm.

“Oil prices are back to pre-war levels with the exception of diesel, though even these have drifted much lower from last summer’s historical highs.

“World oil supply looks set to exceed demand through the first half of 2023, but the balance could quickly shift to deficit as demand recovers and some Russian output is shut in.”

 
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China hasn't made up its mind yet, even on the Chinese internet I would say there is a 50/50 divide on this issue.
 
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At this stage, Russian goods are more favorable and advantageous, so of course imports will increase. However, it is undoubtedly certain that China will not provide weapons to the combat zone.
 
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If China want to keep USA and NATO away from Taiwan then keeping them busy in Ukraine is beneficial for them, keeping Europe on it's toes may push USA to have more presence in Europe then have more forces around China.
 
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China hasn't made up its mind yet, even on the Chinese internet I would say there is a 50/50 divide on this issue.

LOL! That's what good friends are for...

If China want to keep USA and NATO away from Taiwan then keeping them busy in Ukraine is beneficial for them, keeping Europe on it's toes may push USA to have more presence in Europe then have more forces around China.

No, it's going to make NATO get their acts together so we won't be the ones with soldiers there helping defending them from a country they previously wrote off as an insignificant threat of invading other European countries.
 
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