Ukraine begins Special Military Operation to demilitarize Russia after taking back Crimea and Donbas

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

This war is not started 5 days ago, it started 7 months ago.

War started in 2014 shortly after Euro Maidan. Ukraine lost Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk in 2014. Ukraine didn't lose Kherson until 2022.

 

[kankan326]

This war is not started 5 days ago, it started 7 months ago.

If Russia can do anything, they would have already been able to do it by now.

Again, I will forgive your ignorant on military issue, but if you have any military knowledge, you will know losing Izyum and Kupiansk is highly likely no turning back, because that mean for Russia to support their entire effort in the East, they will need to build a Railway Network system in Rostov by Winter, which is less than a month away. Otherwise any troop left East of Izyum will be out of supplies and freeze during the winter.

You don't really know how significant Russia loss in this counter offensive. It would be lucky if they can hold on to Crimea by the end of this year...

Compared to 1943 Kharkiv war, the loss of Russia army this time is nothing

 

[PakFactor]

I have seen a lot of nutcases in this forum lately.


Wehrmacht with its millions of troops could not do pull of such a stunt and Ukraine will??

It seems Ukrainians are getting too overconfident, not realizing without western supply efforts and intel, they wouldn't have come out of this as they did. They hungry to a eat a nuke.

 

[jhungary]

Compared to 1943 Kharkiv war, the loss of Russia army this time is nothing

This is not 1943, nor WW2, nor Russia is Soviet Union, nor was it under attacks.......

 

[F-22Raptor]

This war is not started 5 days ago, it started 7 months ago.

If Russia can do anything, they would have already been able to do it by now.

Again, I will forgive your ignorant on military issue, but if you have any military knowledge, you will know losing Izyum and Kupiansk is highly likely no turning back, because that mean for Russia to support their entire effort in the East, they will need to build a Railway Network system in Rostov by Winter, which is less than a month away. Otherwise any troop left East of Izyum will be out of supplies and freeze during the winter.

You don't really know how significant Russia loss in this counter offensive. It would be lucky if they can hold on to Crimea by the end of this year...

Need to split the Southern and Eastern fronts. Vuhledar to Mauripol. Need to take most of the northern Luhansk from Svatove to Starobilsk. The Russians apparently did not build fortifications here. Drive them back to their 2014
lines. Destroy their Kherson front and drive them to Crimea. Sweep East to West from Mauripol and North to South from Vasilivka to Melitopol. Then only 2014 front and Crimea remains.

 

[kankan326]

This is not 1943, nor WW2, nor Russia is Soviet Union, nor was it under attacks.......

Ukraine is not Germany either. Ukraine has mobilized most of its human resources for the war. Russia has not.

 

[jhungary]

Need to split the Southern and Eastern fronts. Vuhledar to Mauripol. Need to take most of the northern Luhansk from Svatove to Starobilsk. The Russians apparently did not build fortifications here. Drive them back to their 2014
lines. Destroy their Kherson front and drive them to Crimea. Sweep East to West from Mauripol and North to South from Vasilivka to Melitopol. Then only 2014 front and Crimea remains.

It's quite obvious the Russian retreated to the Eastern Bank of Oskil, hoping the river will stop the Ukrainian counter attack. But then they don't have any fortification on the Eastern bank, which mean when Ukraine take Lyman (days away), they will be able to cross the Oskil river and pursuit the Russian.

There are no PLF (Permanent Line of Fortification) anywhere in Eastern Donbas all the way until Pre-Invasion LNR/DNR border, and there is no way the Russian would have enough stock and supplies to fight the Ukrainian now Kupiansk and Izyum is taken by them. It would most likely be month, if not weeks, to roll the Russian back to Pre-2022 invasion border. Then what to do is up to them.

And you know what, the Russian scotch earth policy means they level EVERY city and their fortification before they occupied those cities, a thing they really need now to stop the Ukrainian counterattack. So, in a way, they actually helped The Ukrainian from retaking those cities.

Either way, What Ukraine free up from the 3 fronts (Kharkiv, Slovainsk and Sieversk, a lot of troops there in case you don't know) would be spared to go south and push Russia troop from Adviivka and Possibly pushed all the way to Mariupol and flank Crimea from both side...

Ukraine is not Germany either. Ukraine has mobilized most of its human resources for the war. Russia has not.

lol, how do you figure?

Ukraine has 6 million service age adult male they can mobilise. Current Ukraine Military and TDF strength is less than 800k.

On the other hand, what reason can Putin used to mobilise their people? You call people to invade another country? Russian will revolt if Putin mobilise in this war, that is the reason why he don't call this war a war, instead he call it a "Special Military Operation" because he know if he call this a war and mobilise people to serve in an invasion, he is going to be replace or killed faster than Ned Stark being replaced in Game of Throne.

You think he don't want to mobilise if he would have done so already? He was not in dire straight just now, he has been since he was beaten back from Kyiv in April.......

 

[kankan326]

lol, how do you figure?

Ukraine has 6 million service age adult male they can mobilise. Current Ukraine Military and TDF strength is less than 800k.

On the other hand, what reason can Putin used to mobilise their people? You call people to invade another country? Russian will revolt if Putin mobilise in this war, that is the reason why he don't call this war a war, instead he call it a "Special Military Operation" because he know if he call this a war and mobilise people to serve in an invasion, he is going to be replace or killed faster than Ned Stark being replaced in Game of Throne.

You think he don't want to mobilise if he would have done so already? He was not in dire straight just now, he has been since he was beaten back from Kyiv in April.......

800K is already very big number. Ukraine has 25-30m population now. Stalin's red army number at peak time is 10m, from 190m population. No country can mobilized its population to Soviet Union's level.

If Russia is going to lose the war, Russians will bet their nations future on it. They don't see this war as an ordinary one. Russians can not afford to lose it.

 

[jhungary]

800K is already very big number. Ukraine has 25-30m population now. Stalin's red army number at peak time is 10m, from 190m population. We all no country can mobilized its population to Soviet Union's level.

If Russia is going to lose the war, Russians will bet their nations future on it. They don't see this war as an ordinary one. Russians can not afford to lose it.

First of all, Russia is NOT Soviet Union. Ukraine contribute as much as Russia does in WW2 as part of Soviet Union.

Secondly, 800k is NOT really a big number, consider you will have a lot of troops sitting idle defending fronts that may or may not have got hot. There are 4 to 6 Brigade sitting in Kyiv at the moment with no war going on. There are 1.3 million troop in Russia, that does not mean Putin can pull them all from defending Russia to fight in Ukraine, the same with Ukrainian military.

Finally, Russia ALREADY lost this war in strategic term, their goal is to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and stop NATO from expanding. Instead, NATO have gained 2 new members, possibly another 2 (Georgia and Kosovo) And instead of Demilitarize Ukraine, Ukraine has just overtaken Israel as the world most Militarised country on earth. And I don't know how you can denazify Ukraine but seeing Russian won't be able to take the entire Ukraine, I don't think that's possible to denazifying them.

What Russia want now is a tactical victory so at least they said they have achieved something, but that tactical victory means Russia have to capture the entire Donbas (what they said), right now, even before this counter offensive, their force aren't going anywhere, they have been trying to take Siversky (9 miles from Lysychansk) and Bakhmut, and they still fighting on the outskirt even though Lysychansk felt in July. Now with this counter offensive and they lost Kupiansk and Izyum? The Entire Donbas is basically at the mercy of Ukrainian, because you don't have supply going in and out of the area now Kupiansk and Izyum is gone. Russia literally need to shift their entire focus on supporting the Operation in Ukraine from Belgorod to Rostov as you can no longer support the war from Belgorod as the rail line between it and Isyum was cut. And I don't think you need to serve in the military to know you cannot switch logistic base in just a month, and then winter comes, what supply can Russia use to fight during Winter??

 

[kankan326]

First of all, Russia is NOT Soviet Union. Ukraine contribute as much as Russia does in WW2 as part of Soviet Union.

Secondly, 800k is NOT really a big number, consider you will have a lot of troops sitting idle defending fronts that may or may not have got hot. There are 4 to 6 Brigade sitting in Kyiv at the moment with no war going on. There are 1.3 million troop in Russia, that does not mean Putin can pull them all from defending Russia to fight in Ukraine, the same with Ukrainian military.

Finally, Russia ALREADY lost this war in strategic term, their goal is to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and stop NATO from expanding. Instead, NATO have gained 2 new members, possibly another 2 (Georgia and Kosovo) And instead of Demilitarize Ukraine, Ukraine has just overtaken Israel as the world most Militarised country on earth. And I don't know how you can denazify Ukraine but seeing Russian won't be able to take the entire Ukraine, I don't think that's possible to denazifying them.

What Russia want now is a tactical victory so at least they said they have achieved something, but that tactical victory means Russia have to capture the entire Donbas (what they said), right now, even before this counter offensive, their force aren't going anywhere, they have been trying to take Siversky (9 miles from Lysychansk) and Bakhmut, and they still fighting on the outskirt even though Lysychansk felt in July. Now with this counter offensive and they lost Kupiansk and Izyum? The Entire Donbas is basically at the mercy of Ukrainian, because you don't have supply going in and out of the area now Kupiansk and Izyum is gone. Russia literally need to shift their entire focus on supporting the Operation in Ukraine from Belgorod to Rostov as you can no longer support the war from Belgorod as the rail line between it and Isyum was cut. And I don't think you need to serve in the military to know you cannot switch logistic base in just a month, and then winter comes, what supply can Russia use to fight during Winter??

Ukraine didn't lose the war when they lost all the lands you are talking about. How come Russia lost the war when it only lost 3% of Ukraine's occupied land? No need talk more. Let wait some days. We can come back by then and see who is right.

 

[jhungary]

Ukraine didn't lose the war when they lost all the lands you are talking about. How come Russia lost the war when it only lost 3% of Ukraine's occupied land? No need talk more. Let wait some days. We can come back by then and see who is right.

Dude, do you know the "Attacker/Defender" relationship??

A defender wins a war when not all of its land was occupied. An attacker on the other hand need to occupy all of the defender lands to win the war.

At this rate, IF, that's a very big if, Russia was able to take the Entire Donbass, it would have been 10+ years before they can do so, not in the next few days, as the Russian advance 1 km at most a day, before the Counter Offensive, and Ukraine just rolled 3000 km from Russia in the last 12 days.

 

[kankan326]

Dude, do you know the "Attacker/Defender" relationship??

A defender wins a war when not all of its land was occupied. An attacker on the other hand need to occupy all of the defender lands to win the war.

At this rate, IF, that's a very big if, Russia was able to take the Entire Donbass, it would have been 10+ years before they can do so, not in the next few days, as the Russian advance 1 km at most a day, before the Counter Offensive, and Ukraine just rolled 3000 km from Russia in the last 12 days.

Russia is a defender because most population in east Ukraine are Russians.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

A defender wins a war when not all of its land was occupied. An attacker on the other hand need to occupy all of the defender lands to win the war.

By your logic Syria, Libya, Yemen all won, because they kept their capital cities.

Syrian civil war - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Libyan civil war (2014–2020) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Yemeni civil war (2014–present) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[jhungary]

Russia is a defender because most population in east Ukraine are Russians.

lol, you tell yourself that......

A lot of People in Chinatown speak Chinese, does that make them Chinese?

Plus the war were EVERYWHRE except in the East. Kharkiv is in Northern Ukraine, Kherson is in Southern Ukraine.........

 

[kankan326]

lol, you tell yourself that......

A lot of People in Chinatown speak Chinese, does that make them Chinese?

Plus the war were EVERYWHRE except in the East. Kharkiv is in Northern Ukraine, Kherson is in Southern Ukraine.........

Obviously you forget Ukraine civil war has lasted for several years. East Ukrainians see Ukrainian army as invaders.

No more talks. Talk won't change anything. Let's wait some time.