I understand that sending CBGs into China's back yard can be seen as threatening. I also understand that China has the right to intercept spy planes off of its coast.
The problem in this particular case, though, is our history. Remember the first Hainan Island incident. A Chinese fighter jet should have no reason to behave like this towards a slow, unarmed, unescorted plane. It should intercept and shadow, sure, but don't play chicken in the air. The first time a collision happens, tempers flare, but diplomacy can soothe the situation. The second time, I have no idea what would happen, but why would China risk this? I see zero payoff for China to send a mentally unstable (or incompetent) pilot to do this kind of patrol when we already saw what happened the last time China sent out a mentally unstable/incompetent pilot in 2001.
Compounding the problem is that China could have responded neutrally, saying something along the lines of "we take these allegations seriously, and will investigate.". You see? No apology, no loss of face, but simultaneously reassure the US that China is a rational actor, with a professional military--and most importantly, that the political echelon is actually in control of the military, which is quietly an open question here in the US. Instead, the Chinese government issued some internally inconsistent statement (to put it diplomatically) about international law, and China's rights. Of course, this is not evidence of a "responsible power" who respects and upholds the rules of the game, and of course it does not demonstrate "a new type of great power relationship.". If we don't know what to expect from China (since it doesn't follow "the rules") then we will be suspicious of China. If we are suspicious, next time we will send the plane with a fighter escort.
Now the US is sending spy planes with fighter escorts to gather intel on China. Naturally, tensions will rise. What has China gained by having its incompetent pilot harass our unarmed planes? Escalation. For a leadership that prides itself on pragmatism, this is a terrible blunder, and possibly a display of incompetence in itself (or again, possibly a sign that the political echelon does not control the military, which is terrifying).
Finally, the US has decades of experience with challenges to our territorial airspace by the USSR, so when Russia sent its Tu-95s within 50 miles of California, we didn't buzz them, barrel roll on top of them, or play chicken with them. We handled it professionally (just like Russia does with our patrols). Why shouldn't we expect the same of China? Chinese leaders and Chinese soldiers are not children who pull pranks. This is serious business, not the time to play games. The proportional response by China is to mirror our actions by sending patrols to the US, like the USSR used to do.
In short, I understand Chinese discomfort, but the Chinese reaction seems calculated to increase tensions, which will only increase the discomfort. What is China playing at, here?
2001 was a different time, what happened then was a defense of national pride rather than national security. 100 years of humiliation has left China ultra sensitive. China can be seen as a person with a chip on his shoulder, over thinking anything and everything.
I doubt China felt threatened at the time, but 5 years from the Strait crisis and add to the constant US pressure, especially regarding the harsh WTO conditions, which worked to our favor as it turned out, made China desperate to take a stand.
So while the incident seems innocent and isolated, but in reality it's resentment built up over years of tension.
The harsh truth right now is China lacks the efficiency and command structure to effectively tackle these situations, our military doctrine and command structure as well as other military ideologies are changing, but it's a slow process, the old timers need to be replaced first.
Give us 10 years, and we can more effectively handle these incidents, but today, we simply can't.
Side note, our pilots flying 200+ hours, they are on par with American pilots in terms of hours, maybe they lack experience in terms of international exercises, but they don't lack the skill the Americans have. So you have nothing to worry about. The days of us bumping planes is over. We are no longer that weak.
You must also consider, China isn't the USSR, USSR can never challenge US on the economy side of things, we will surpass US on total national strength by no later than 2023. Which means USSR had to deal with things in a way that saves them face while also not being able to do what Americans can.
We on the other hand could do what America could in time, so we want to leave that option open for the future. By 2020, even conservative estimates puts Chinese military spending at about 250 billion dollars a year, and that doesn't include quite a few things like R&D, nuclear and related projects. J-20 budget is not included in the budget, neither are any of our engine programs.
The Chinese end game and Russia is not the same, we are not trying to discourage such actions, we are holding firm until we can do the same. Remember 2000 years of imperial history makes us a very much imperial nation, it's just at present we can't. Not to worry, if history is any guide, we have withdrew into ourselves a few times, and each time, we came out swinging. One of the reasons we are not only the last remaining ancient civilization, but also bigger than ever.
Hawaii, Guam, Saipan, alliances with Japan and the Philippines--we are a Pacific power, and we are not going anywhere. China can recognize this, and work with us through clear and open lines of communication, and we both get richer and prosper. Or China can play chicken with us and see how many times it wins (remind me, what is China winning, exactly?), and what happens when it finally goes too far (remind me, how does China benefit from this outcome?). If buzzing an unarmed spy plane is not a mentally unstable act, you will be able to easily and clearly explain how China benefits from this, especially in the context of the Hainan Island incident. I am open minded and await your response.
China is benefitting immensely from the status quo. It's beyond me why China would prefer a tinderbox scenario to the status quo.
We are benefiting because we are going to go the distance, we are like a successful **** star, to use a bad analogy, we are willing to go further hence we are successful, but it's hardly a desirable situation.
America benefits far more in the current political system, than we do.
China being recognized will not only further us diplomatically and politically, but also economically.
We are not playing Chicken, this time it is you that is making more than it is. Yea it works both ways.
Hainan was a different time as I said, you can't use that time to judge today. Why? We grew 26 times our original size since 89, while America grew 3 times. We are a completely different nation every few years.
In terms of benefits, we don't really benefit, one of the draw backs of lack of experience.
