I already said it on here before several times. Vietnam cant be on two boats at the same time. At some crucial point, Vietnam will have to choose one side, and obviously if the VCP is smart enough, they will side with the U.S/west, since they can offer far more to Vietnam than a declining Russia can. Vietnam will have to think deeply on this, since Russia will NEVER support Vietnam in any conflict/issue with China, as they have FAR MORE crucial relationship/interests with the Chinese against the west/U.S than little Vietnam can ever offer. So Vietnam will have to be really dumb to continue relying on Moscow. If Vietnam wants to have any chance in having any upper hand in SCS dispute and maintaining its sovereignty then it will have to side with the U.S and forget about Russia(but still maintain commercial/trade relations with Russia). Vietnam should look at its long term interests, in this regard, it has two main options(though not exclusively):
- Either she tries and sort out a peaceful deal with China and other SCS parties, where the islands/resources in the spratlys islands and SCS can be shared between the negotiating parties, even if it means compromises might be made.
-Or she shouldshed its Russian patron reliance, and ally with the U.S/west, so she can have more weight in dealing with the Chinese/other contestants. Thats the only two options in see for Vietnam.
The only last other option i see, is just for Vietnam to try and maintain the current status quo as much as possible, which means avoiding any reckless beur like firing at other nations fishermen/boats etc who enter its disputed islands waters, which is something China, Taiwan and other stronger parties are waiting for.
So vietnam has to avoid making the same mistakes it made during the cold war when it choosed the wrong side, which made it suffer under sanctions/famine/wars for so long, hence the reason Vietnam still lag so much behind it other peers in SEA in living standards/development like Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and even Philippines. Hopefully the current leaders there wont make the same mistakes. Good luck to Vietnam.
I agree with the comment completely. What about you
@BoQ77 , what do you think? Vietnam should side with the U.S or Russia?
I know its a tough choice for you, but you have to choose at some point to be honest.
lool How will Vietnam go to hell??
Last time i checked, its not Russia who created Vietnam.lool
AHAHAHHA......you are actually one of the few Vietnamese member here(with Carlosa to some extent) who often make alot of insightful/valuable contributions. I agree with your post.