Hi,
A war against pakistan and china is a reality at this moment for the U S----. The chance that the U S has now to neutralize these two countries at this time---may not be available after the next 5 to 10 years----.
This would also mean to drop pakistan totally as an ally and start up with a full time engagement with India to be the fulcrum of military action against these two nations.
Gwadar port and a naval base that the chinese may have full access to in the future, is a big challenge for the U S navy to keep its control in the arena. As it has full control over china in the south china seas---it can strangulate the chinese trade routes and oil shipments coming into china.
But Gwadar port brings out new issues and a change in power structure and power projection for the americans. As it links china thru a railhead----an oil pipeline that would reach into china----and the immediate presence of a chinese naval flotilla in the arena would bring many a headaches to the U S.
The U S navy that has controlled the area with impunity----since the second world war---will be facing fierce competition in power positioning.
So---just a few days ago---the U S fired the first round across the bough of pakistan---thru its secretary defense and the issue brought up was the short range pakistani nucs. Now---how and why did the short range pakistani nucs become a threat to the U S is unfathomable---but their concern of its usage in India Pakistan conflict seems to be un-acceptable to the americans at this stage or in the future----.
So---the thing what one needs to ask is---what are the americans trying to say---and what do the americans mean when they want pakistan to curtail the production of the short range nucs and also reduce their numbers or just totally demolish them.
Another issue is---why does the U S want pakistan to do that---why has the U S made this demand when it does not effect the U S in any way.
Does it want to pi-ss off pakistan---does it want pakistan to show any reaction---does it want to push pakistan into a corner---so that pakistan reacts and the U S finds a justification to strike.
This strike will basically neutralize pakistan's assets completely---which will put india in a much stronger position in the region---and as pakistan's legs get chopped off----that means that china's security is in question.
Now why do I think that the U S has a chance to succeed now than later----because pakistan military has failed to meet its obligation to strengthen the force in the given time.
The given time was between after 2001 till 2011---a 10 years time period---in the first part and then 2015 in the second part.
The bad decision of not getting the french aircraft between 2002---2005 is haunting them right now in the JF 17 program. With that handled---the JF17 program would have been in full swing and the upper and lower tier aircraft in place and military focused on other issues---. But tragically---the force is still bogged down even after 12 years.
The the second option that became available was earlier this year in the form of Yemen coalition---and we failed again at that as well.
Here is what Pakistan is----IT IS A NATION WITH THE BRAIN OF A LITTLE CHILD---BUT THE BODY OF A MONSTER----and the ability to rain destruction that a monster can---but as it is still a child brain---it does not comprehend the power of destruction that it has over other nations---and that has those other nations worried out of wits.
So---when this second God given opportunity came----pakistan floundered one more time out of habit----. It still was not able to comprehend what those monstrous dark clouds far out in the horizon were headed out towards----. It just could not understand that those clouds were headed its way.
The Yemen coalition was another chance for pakistan to have strengthened its military and economic might---. With a little adjustment here and a little adjustment there----moving of some fighter aircraft from one region to another---making mutual protection deal thru the resources of friendly GCC states and pakistan would have been in the driving seat one more time.
Enough funds to deploy troops---procure 5 to 8 sqdrns of frontline aircraft----navy frigates between 3500 tonnes to 8000 tonnes and create an additional force of 150 K troops---. Of those a 75 K troops deployed in yemen with at least 4 sqdrn's of aircraft and naval ship and subs---which would have given pakistan military a massive control and fire power in the region.
50---75000 troops spread around two to three bases in yemen with full military strength to keep peace in the arena and another 75---100000 troops based in saudi arabia and emirates---bahrain and qatar.
The naval flotilla would have seen another 4---6 F22 type ships---possibly 2 type 054 type frigate and possible 1 type 052 frigate. For the air force----we could see around 36 to 50 Rafale MS----4---6 division of tanks and other complimentary armor resource---the cargo fleet of the gulf countries would suffice to do the job and additons could be made.
Primary job of 50000 troops created in the first year and the total of 150000 in a 3 to 5 years time period---. Secondary jobs of over 300000 to 500000 would also had been created to cater to the needs of the troops---also money sent home in remittance would better the lifestyle of the families---who would be spending more on construction etc etc etc.
But---as pakistan has chosen to reject that offer---it is going to find itself on the brink of a dark and nasty hole of death---destruction---and mayhem.
The situation looks extremely grim for pakistan and china. The U S military has tried many a imes to provoke china in the south china seas---its partner australia alos has tried to provoke china in the recent days as the U S----and these provocations are not going to stop.
The ante will be upped slowly but surely---and at times rapidly for china to react. For pakistan---it will be put under immense pressure one more time---and this pressure that it is going to be put under---pakistan did not need to find itself in this place at this time.
For the folly of Yemen---pakistan may end up losing its source of power.
@Khafee @Indus Falcon @Irfan Baloch @Viper0011.
. The focal point of all national policies, decisions and initiatives will be in the direction of protecting PA
we are ridiculously stubborn
