Turkey records nearly 1.2M live births in 2019 Total fertility rate was 1.88 last year, below popula

[T-123456]

No you can't.
The Turks living in Germany and Holland I seen myself. They been there for generations , and look more local than Turkish.
Don't think they will immigrate to Turkiye that easy?

Yes we can.
Most of those Turks(70%) do not include themselves to the societies of the countries they live in.
The "Muslim" terrorism caused Populism which caused discrimination and exclusion for many Muslims in Europe.
Most Turks see their future in Türkiye and thanks to Erdogan(the defender of Muslims) the populist from the other side,they feel close to the "home'' country.
Specially the third and fourth generation.
Why do you think the AKP got over 70% of the votes in Europe?
Next time you see them,ask them but only the ''normal guy'',not the higher education or academics.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

India's TFR has been dropping too.

View attachment 632450

India will be the most populated country in the world by 2025.
Falling rate will only help you if it sustain this for next 20-30 years.

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

It will hit 2.1 nationally in 2021 I think.

It should stabilise at 2.0, maybe 1.9. I would not want it going further down than that because there is not enough economic development boom for supporting older population (later down road) sustainably and fairly....it will need to be gentler fall of TFR compared to china for sure.

We already seeing some negative dependency ratio+aging effects happening in South where TFRs in some states have reached 1.6 and look to drop to even to 1.4. For some period of time we can balance this with higher TFR of centre and north etc (migrations + integration basically)...but thats already causing problems too in social frictions and north will soon be in low 2 TFR zone as well. We have to think about this sustainably and fairly and start a goal of every state being as close to 2.1 as possible and held there.... China will be suffering shortly by its huge draconian absolute push for example.

Well the part is China has done something to get employment for her citizens through any means even though it may be illegal. It has probably 200m people working directly or indirectly in different manufacturing sectors anyway. The problem is India doesn't have too many labor intensive sectors to take advantage of democratic dividend. And a reason why India is having Protectionism in some sectors cos if we open up we will be losing a lots of jobs. China started her growth during 90's and it took 25 years to reach where it is now. Even are we ready to wait 15 more years to take advantage of population dividend? Cos if we are not, then we have a large scale of unskilled population.

I understand some states have low population TFR. But to be honest even TN with a population of 8.5 crore is too much for her land size. I mean Canadian population is 4 crore and her land size is 3 times of India. This migrant issue has actually blown the cover of Tamil nationalist parties and their supporters. It has actually shown without north labour economic activities will come to a standstill.

With the increase of automation in the coming decades I think the days of economic migration will be numbered also mix in anti migrant fevour it will be the end as for folks like you and me who are sons of migrants unless Pakistan becomes a ecnomic and political juggernaut the generations after me and you will lose connection to Pakistan which will be sad


No more boobs and vagene

I seriously didn't get that.

 

[AUz]

Bro, as someone with a strong interest in demography its funny seeing people disagree with you as yours is the common stance in the field now. They think you are advocating overpopulation when there is a difference between overpopulation/underpopulation and ideal demographics.

Most of these guys are casuals who grew up listening to over-population narrative etc. They are still stuck in 1960's and 70's.....while the entire field of demography has moved on, have developed more sophisticated methods, and have established a much more nuanced view of human population growth than the false dichotomy of "over-population" vs "economic development"

The only place where there is a serious over-population, under-development problem going on is sub-Saharan Africa---which is still stuck at 5+ kids per woman with extreme poverty.

Everywhere else, the world has transferred into ideal fertility vs low fertility paradigm where having babies is actually a good thing for development in the long term (given the population have babies within ideal range of fertility).

Hopefully, someone in Turkey is paying attention and working hard to reverse their falling fertility. I dont want Turkey to lose out on its potential due to bad demographics.

Btw, if you are still interested in demographics....read up the works of Lyman stone. His works and articles are easy to digest and SO relevant to this thread (and the ignorance being shown here lol)

 

[dani191]

Very bad news for Turkey and Turks. Once you fall below 1.9 TFR, it becomes almost impossible to come back at normal levels for a sustained period of time.

Moreover, look at the data....Turkish areas already have extremely lower 1.58 TFR as a whole---while Kurdish areas have ~3 TFR. Within a decade, Kurds will form a much larger percentage of Turkey's working-age population (could be up to 35%-40% depending on how things go in coming years).

Experts hoped may be its a temporary dip due to economic crisis in Turkey happening for past few years----but increasingly, it is looking like more and more permanent.

Below replacement fertility will be the biggest obstacle in Turkey's industrialization, economic rise, and innovative prowess. In industrialized countries---more population is linked with more innovation (as more young, educated people = faster innovation under right circumstances). That's why U.S took the lead over European competitors and that's why China is rising SO fast right now

@dani191 Why do you think Israel has such a healthy birth rate? Even discounting the Haredim (which are a deadweight of sorts and don't really count)---Israel's birth rate is 2.3-2.5 kids woman (Overall its 3 when you add Ultra-Orthodox Haredims too). Israelis aren't particularly religious---so what in your view contributes to this advantage of Israel?

well we have the relagion that have alot of children and secular have around 2.1 -2.2 and its can get down dont forget

 

[Ansu fati]

I am glad that @KediKesenFare has destroyed the myth/propaganda which is pushed by both internal and external factoes in Turkey
people around the world tend to believe that a state having 100+ million people will take its economy to next level standard or that those countries with failing fertility rates will face apocalypse or something like that(Italy and Japan are one of the best examples for debunking this belief)
Turkey has several ways how to counter this trend which happens in all countries with emerging&developed economies
Importing turks from central asia/muslims with strong pro-Turkey positions/using syrians and other middle eastern people as cheap labor... etc

 

[Type59]

Look at all the street kids around the world. They are born into a miserable existence. People who encourage massive population growth dont think about how many unfit parents out there.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Reis Erdo’an has to now raise it to 5 kids per couple now...

 

[Nilgiri]

Reis Erdo’an has to now raise it to 5 kids per couple now...

@T-123456 @xenon54 @-SINAN-

 

[xenon54 out]

Reis Erdo’an has to now raise it to 5 kids per couple now...

Just talked to my cousin in Turkey he and his wife are booth around 27 but dont want to make a child because people cant afford kids right now.
Reis has to do something about it instead of just asking for more kids.

 

[Constantin84]

Reis Erdo’an has to now raise it to 5 kids per couple now...

Wouldn't reis like to lower the 14 %unemployment rate (that's before corona v) and than demand that people have children?

 

[Nein]

Just talked to my cousin in Turkey he and his wife are booth around 27 but dont want to make a child because people cant afford kids right now.
Reis has to do something about it instead of just asking for more kids.

How the hell the do refugees and kurds afford children then it seems like a dumb excuse.

By this rate we are destined to be replaced then.

Most of these guys are casuals who grew up listening to over-population narrative etc. They are still stuck in 1960's and 70's.....while the entire field of demography has moved on, have developed more sophisticated methods, and have established a much more nuanced view of human population growth than the false dichotomy of "over-population" vs "economic development"

The only place where there is a serious over-population, under-development problem going on is sub-Saharan Africa---which is still stuck at 5+ kids per woman with extreme poverty.

Everywhere else, the world has transferred into ideal fertility vs low fertility paradigm where having babies is actually a good thing for development in the long term (given the population have babies within ideal range of fertility).

Hopefully, someone in Turkey is paying attention and working hard to reverse their falling fertility. I dont want Turkey to lose out on its potential due to bad demographics.

Btw, if you are still interested in demographics....read up the works of Lyman stone. His works and articles are easy to digest and SO relevant to this thread (and the ignorance being shown here lol)

The turks will a lot of them complain and whine and not do anything about it.

Speaking of darwinian theory by this rate we will be replaced. Australia has a garbage fertility too.

Its now the norm not to have kids mixed in with fag marriages and feminism.

Only way to fix the fertility rate if a gradual civilisation collapse happens and the hunters and gatherers alongside the Nomadic peoples inherit the earth is when things will get fixed.

Lets be realistic the drop in ferility rates are intevitable.

 

[dani191]

what is the reason that people in developed world and even not in developed world stop haveing kids?

 

[xenon54 out]

How the hell the do refugees and kurds afford children then it seems like a dumb excuse.

By this rate we are destined to be replaced then.

He showed me his salary and his expenses, he got 800 lira gas bill this month alone and only earns about avarage salary.
Have you ever had to pay bills or do you still live with your parents?

 

[Nein]

He showed me his salary and his expenses, he got 800 lira gas bill this month alone and only earns about avarage salary.
Have you ever had to pay bills or do you still live with your parents?

Yeah I pay bills even if I live with my parents I contribute.

I cant leave the house until I marry which seems like a rule my mum made. My brother thought about moving to an apartment which pissed her off. His getting married this year.