Turkey experiencing ‘inflation-devaluation spiral’ as lira heads south
- May 25 2022 12:06 Gmt+3
- Last Updated On: May 25 2022 12:09 Gmt+3
The lira was trading down 1.5 percent at 16.34 per dollar at midday in Istanbul on Thursday. It has dropped by 19 percent in 2022 following a slump of 44 percent last year. The currency traded at 7.44 per dollar at the start of 2021.
The Turkish authorities have abandoned a recent policy of intervening in the currency markets and were now attempting to manage the lira lower, said Tim Ash, a senior emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London.
“With 70 percent inflation they need to constantly manage the lira weaker or face massive real appreciation,” Ash said. “They are in an inflation-devaluation spiral.”
The lira has weakened for 14 of the last 15 trading days.
The Turkish lira has dived against major currencies after the central bank, acting on orders from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, slashed interest rates late last year despite accelerating price increases. Erdoğan, who has sacked three central bank governors in three years, says higher interest rates are inflationary and also contradict with his Islamic beliefs.
Consumer price inflation extended a two-decade high to 69.97 percent in April. The central bank has indicated that it will not hike interest rate hikes to defend the lira and slow inflation -- Erdoğan opposes such a move. It has said it does not have to raise borrowing costs just because other central banks around the world were doing so to rein in inflation. Producer price inflation in Turkey stands at 122 percent.
Ash said the authorities may be managing a decline in the lira before setting a new level to defend it ahead of early elections. Turkey is due to hold presidential and parliamentary elections by June next year.
The central bank’s monetary policy committee is scheduled to hold a monthly meeting on interest rates on Thursday. Economists expect no change.
Turkey experiencing ‘inflation-devaluation spiral’ as lira heads south | Ahval
Turkey is finding itself in a vicious circle of surging inflation and a depreciating currency, said a leading emerging markets strategist, as the lira extended losses this year against the dollar.
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Erdogan is leading Turkey towards apocalypse!!!