The West badly needs a land-based corridor to the Central Asia

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Thanks to the Ukrainan War, the West is planning how to leverage the growing disillusionment and disfranchising of the CA Republics vis-a-vis Russia. Kazakhstan leads the pack for they understand after Ukraine it's their turn to be a part of the "Make Russia Great Again" plan of Putin. They want to break away from these Imperialist Russians for they deem it better as the children of that geography and history....

No wonder the West is extending its hand, may be a velvet one, to these CA republics. But, how to bell the cat? They badly need a safe and secured land route to these far away deeply continental lands. The first option is a land corridor through Armenia and Turkey etc. But it's too close to the clutches of the Russian Bear. Another route is via the Af-Pak. Now, the folks might understand the reasons behind the renewed interest of the USA on Pak.....

In this video presentation the Turkish strategic analyst, Ardan Zenturk, is discussing about a recent meeting in Berlin where five CA republic leaders met together with the Western authorities. They also met with President Biden during the UN meeting last month. They no longer want to portray themselves as the extension of the Russian Empire, and want an independent trade & investment route to the external world. It's a good news for Turkey as well for it means the Western support behind opening of the Zengezur corridor...

China is of course a major player here. And, Pak is again one of the vital centers (previously it was the British India) in this 21st century return match of the Great Game....

 

[Haldorss]

Turkey should be concerned. East flank of Turkey is now shut down if they get away with splitting ME.

 

[prothought]

It was so foolish on the part of the western countries to oppose CPEC just in the name of blocking or containing a rising China. They thought it would benefit China's global trade and thus promote strategic Chinese reach and strengthen Chinese clout. In reality, the CPEC is a huge project for global trade and, if successful, ultimately would benefit the whole world one way or the other. Once the CEC infrastructure is in place and functional, the same infrastructure can be used to provide multiple trade routes to the CARs too. Reliable, short, smooth, and safe trade routes to CARs will be more benificial to Europe and USA than anyone else because Western companies can invest, develop, and tap the vast natural resources in the CARs and use them for their own benefit. let's hope the sanity prevails in the wstern capitals and they strug off their undue bias against China in order to promote global cooperation rather than brewing enimosity and blocking or containing someone's progress and prsperity. Let's also hope that western powers (including USA) help in eleiminating terrorism in Balochistan by arresting the terrorists kingpims currently residing in those countries and also call a spade a spade, i.e. declaring India a terrorist state and taking global actions against the terrorist Hindu government in New Dehli which is actively using terrorism as a state policy to weaken the regional states. India, as a nation, has been the biggest source of instability for this region.

 

[protean]

It was so foolish on the part of the western countries to oppose CPEC just in the name of blocking or containing a rising China. They thought it would benefit China's global trade and thus promote strategic Chinese reach and strengthen Chinese clout. In reality, the CPEC is a huge project for global trade and, if successful, ultimately would benefit the whole world one way or the other. Once the CEC infrastructure is in place and functional, the same infrastructure can be used to provide multiple trade routes to the CARs too. Reliable, short, smooth, and safe trade routes to CARs will be more benificial to Europe and USA than anyone else because Western companies can invest, develop, and tap the vast natural resources in the CARs and use them for their own benefit. let's hope the sanity prevails in the wstern capitals and they strug off their undue bias against China in order to promote global cooperation rather than brewing enimosity and blocking or containing someone's progress and prsperity. Let's also hope that western powers (including USA) help in eleiminating terrorism in Balochistan by arresting the terrorists kingpims currently residing in those countries and also call a spade a spade, i.e. declaring India a terrorist state and taking global actions against the terrorist Hindu government in New Dehli which is actively using terrorism as a state policy to weaken the regional states. India, as a nation, has been the biggest source of instability for this region.

I mean beggars having big dreams. Lol.

 

[nahtanbob]

Thanks to the Ukrainan War, the West is planning how to leverage the growing disillusionment and disfranchising of the CA Republics vis-a-vis Russia. Kazakhstan leads the pack for they understand after Ukraine it's their turn to be a part of the "Make Russia Great Again" plan of Putin. They want to break away from these Imperialist Russians for they deem it better as the children of that geography and history....

No wonder the West is extending its hand, may be a velvet one, to these CA republics. But, how to bell the cat? They badly need a safe and secured land route to these far away deeply continental lands. The first option is a land corridor through Armenia and Turkey etc. But it's too close to the clutches of the Russian Bear. Another route is via the Af-Pak. Now, the folks might understand the reasons behind the renewed interest of the USA on Pak.....

In this video presentation the Turkish strategic analyst, Ardan Zenturk, is discussing about a recent meeting in Berlin where five CA republic leaders met together with the Western authorities. They also met with President Biden during the UN meeting last month. They no longer want to portray themselves as the extension of the Russian Empire, and want an independent trade & investment route to the external world. It's a good news for Turkey as well for it means the Western support behind opening of the Zengezur corridor...

China is of course a major player here. And, Pak is again one of the vital centers (previously it was the British India) in this 21st century return match of the Great Game....

When Russia joins the West who needs Central Asia

 

[Ali_Baba]

I never understood the value of the Central Asian Republics from an economic perspective - the total population of the Central Asian Republics is 76million only - and it is a GDP nominal of $446 billion only...

Central Asia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I guess the value would only be as a transport links for the neighbouring countries and more strategic from a military perspective only of the access it provides. The recent "re-interest" would be just to stick another finger in Russia's eye's at most.

 

[nahtanbob]

I never understood the value of the Central Asian Republics from an economic perspective - the total population of the Central Asian Republics is 76million only - and it is a GDP nominal of $446 billion only...

Central Asia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I guess the value would only be as a transport links for the neighbouring countries and more strategic from a military perspective only of the access it provides. The recent "re-interest" would be just to stick another finger in Russia's eye's at most.

it is 64 million to be more precise. there are plenty of fools willing to state Pakistan's salvation is based on access to those 64 million people

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

Its better if China is given a corridor to Central Asia, than USA.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Its better if China is given a corridor to Central Asia, than USA.

China has one - CAR is neighbours of China!

 

[FuturePAF]

I never understood the value of the Central Asian Republics from an economic perspective - the total population of the Central Asian Republics is 76million only - and it is a GDP nominal of $446 billion only...

Central Asia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I guess the value would only be as a transport links for the neighbouring countries and more strategic from a military perspective only of the access it provides. The recent "re-interest" would be just to stick another finger in Russia's eye's at most.

Central Asian governments are mostly stable (unlike parts of Africa) and they have large mineral reserves, which could be acquired by China on the cheap if there is no competition for them. Central Asia is also the Iranian, Russian, and Chinese underbelly, so a robust external political engagement will give these countries options for all kinds of development projects.

The Russians and Iranian will try to cut off the Caspian/Turkic route, so the only possible non-Iranian, Non-Russian, Non-Chinese route is via Pakistan/Afghanistan.

It’s lot the size of population, but the resources there and the geo-politics of alternative choices on most of Russia’s borders. European and Caucuses border regions have western influence, but not the central Asian border regions. The Caspian and Azerbaijani routes can be monitored but Russian-Iranian trade could go under the radar via Central Asia, especially when looking at re-supply of the Russians during this war in Ukraine. Western engagement in the CARs can help better tabs on movement of resupply.

The CARs need Pakistan and Afghanistan and Pakistan and Afghanistan need the CARs.

Btw, if the CARs want to get out of the clutches or the Russians, they should rebuild most if not all of their rail networks in the standard gauge, so Russian trains can’t move over them, but the tracks can link to the Chinese rail network for trade. At the same time the Afghans can build their Trans-Afghan railway in standard gauge, and Pakistan can also shift to standard gauge in rebuilding ML1. No need to change trains when shipping goods from China onwards to Pakistan (or even Iran via Baluchistan) and western companies can sell rolling stock in standard gauge. The CARs can then better transition to western equipment.



https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332221006606

 

[FuturePAF]

It was so foolish on the part of the western countries to oppose CPEC just in the name of blocking or containing a rising China. They thought it would benefit China's global trade and thus promote strategic Chinese reach and strengthen Chinese clout. In reality, the CPEC is a huge project for global trade and, if successful, ultimately would benefit the whole world one way or the other. Once the CEC infrastructure is in place and functional, the same infrastructure can be used to provide multiple trade routes to the CARs too. Reliable, short, smooth, and safe trade routes to CARs will be more benificial to Europe and USA than anyone else because Western companies can invest, develop, and tap the vast natural resources in the CARs and use them for their own benefit. let's hope the sanity prevails in the wstern capitals and they strug off their undue bias against China in order to promote global cooperation rather than brewing enimosity and blocking or containing someone's progress and prsperity. Let's also hope that western powers (including USA) help in eleiminating terrorism in Balochistan by arresting the terrorists kingpims currently residing in those countries and also call a spade a spade, i.e. declaring India a terrorist state and taking global actions against the terrorist Hindu government in New Dehli which is actively using terrorism as a state policy to weaken the regional states. India, as a nation, has been the biggest source of instability for this region.

The US won’t wade into the Indo-Pak conflict, amd until Pakistan can rebuild its relevance, its better they aren’t brought in because India is still viewed primarily as a large market, so the US will squarely focused on competing with China.

Infrastructure build in Pakistan is Pakistani infrastructure and can be used with any nation Pakistan desires to do business with. All the west should care about is if the infrastructure allows them access to the CARs to better contain Russia and Iran as well as better compete with China for mineral resources.

What actually develops of Chinese land based trade over the same railways will be its own category (limited to what is strategic or cost effective over normal seaborne shipping), but western mineral mining over the same railways can be huge and should be discussed independently and to the mutual benefit of the west and the 5 CARs, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

Also, if the west starts investing in the CARs, it’s possible GCC investors will join in once the poltical hurdles are cleared. Their connections with the Afghans should help them go where perhaps western investors maybe unable to do so. This can also feed into their desire to outcompete the Iranian in their strategic rear as well as diversify the economies of the GCC countries.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@FuturePAF

What are those resources that CA has and which the world covets? If you are talking about oil and gas it is available aplenty in the world- besides with growing renewable energy their importance is going to decline anyway.

I am not discounting them but they dont seem to be worth any more attention than the 76 million people and 400 billion GDP that Ali bhai (@Ali_Baba) speaks about.

Regards

 

[FuturePAF]

@FuturePAF

What are those resources that CA has and which the world covets? If you are talking about oil and gas it is available aplenty in the world- besides with growing renewable energy their importance is going to decline anyway.

I am not discounting them but they dont seem to be worth any more attention than the 76 million people and 400 billion GDP that Ali bhai (@Ali_Baba) speaks about.

Regards

I posted a link to the article two posts up, but to summarize:

Central Asia holds 38.6% of global manganese ore reserves, 30.07% of chromium, 20% of lead, 12.6% of zinc, 8.7% of titanium, 5.8% of aluminum, 5.3% of copper, 5.3% of cobalt, and 5.2% of molybdenum.

There are other resources, especially large amounts of Lithium in Afghanistan.

Pakistan has “excess” electricity generation that couldn’t be better used to process these minerals and develop them into value added products such as batteries or electrical equipment.

If the west is going to carry out the green energy transition it’s going to need all the resources it can get, and especially if it prevent China from getting these resources on the cheap.

Central Asia's minerals offer hope for the clean energy transition - Land and Climate Review

Roman Vakulchuk of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs discusses his research into untapped minerals in Central Asia that could be used for the global clean energy transition.

www.landclimate.org

The following is a 247 page report by the UN on Central Asia’s resources.

https://unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/energy/se/pdfs/UNFC/proj/unfc_ca/CA_synthesis_report.pdf

The following is a 59 page SIGAR report of the Afghan government failures in their mining sector, but also where the resources are located. Corruption, unregulated and illegal mining, and disruption/insecurity due to the insurgency all hindered those efforts, but now that there is a new government perhaps things will change.

https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/evaluations/SIGAR-23-10-IP.pdf

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@FuturePAF

Thanks, that was very useful. While they are important in themselves, do remember that large parts of the world are still to be fully explored for minerals. And the value of the minerals as mined is a very small % of the total value which is added. More money is to be made by acquiring and using tech than having raw materials.

Regards

 

[nahtanbob]

Central Asian governments are mostly stable (unlike parts of Africa) and they have large mineral reserves, which could be acquired by China on the cheap if there is no competition for them. Central Asia is also the Iranian, Russian, and Chinese underbelly, so a robust external political engagement will give these countries options for all kinds of development projects.

The Russians and Iranian will try to cut off the Caspian/Turkic route, so the only possible non-Iranian, Non-Russian, Non-Chinese route is via Pakistan/Afghanistan.

It’s lot the size of population, but the resources there and the geo-politics of alternative choices on most of Russia’s borders. European and Caucuses border regions have western influence, but not the central Asian border regions. The Caspian and Azerbaijani routes can be monitored but Russian-Iranian trade could go under the radar via Central Asia, especially when looking at re-supply of the Russians during this war in Ukraine. Western engagement in the CARs can help better tabs on movement of resupply.

The CARs need Pakistan and Afghanistan and Pakistan and Afghanistan need the CARs.

Btw, if the CARs want to get out of the clutches or the Russians, they should rebuild most if not all of their rail networks in the standard gauge, so Russian trains can’t move over them, but the tracks can link to the Chinese rail network for trade. At the same time the Afghans can build their Trans-Afghan railway in standard gauge, and Pakistan can also shift to standard gauge in rebuilding ML1. No need to change trains when shipping goods from China onwards to Pakistan (or even Iran via Baluchistan) and western companies can sell rolling stock in standard gauge. The CARs can then better transition to western equipment.



https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332221006606

There are lot of resources in Africa. No one is bidding against China in Africa either. The CAR elites are fine with the status quo. You describe it as being under the clutches of Russia and China. I doubt they will look at it that way

The Pakistan/Afghanistan transit option is great. Do not expect a penny to make it work. If interested the Pakistani elite & Taliban will have to sit at the table and figure out how to construct 2000 km highway on their own