Rabiya_Khan
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The effects of environmental degradation and poor management of available water resources have made water one of the scarcest resources in many economies. Pakistan and India are going through the Water Crisis since Independence, scarce resources and the desire for control of water becomes a ground for breeding conflicts among these agrarian economies. The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was signed in 1960 after nine years of negotiations as a Tri-Partite Treaty between India, Pak and the World Bank which serves as a Statutory Arbitrator of the Treaty.
IWT is seen as one of the most successful international treaties, as it survived frequent tensions, conflicts, and has provided a framework for irrigation and hydropower development for more than half a century. Recently, the grievances of contracting parties, lead to the possibility that the present cooperation may turn into a future conflict. Since the hardliner BJP government came into being the relations between India and Pakistan are passing through a very rough patch. Recently PM Modi the leader of staunch Hindutva supporters stated that “Blood and water cannot flow together”. His statement that “Water that belongs to India cannot be allowed to go to Pakistan” represents how this water issue is intensely politicized in India because hawks in India are publically demanding for abrogating the treaty without realizing the side effects or rationality of their demand. Narendra Modi fails to realize that his statement is an attempt of pushing both countries to the brink of war as the treaty cannot be scraped unilaterally as the World Bank is the Mediator while certain restrictions are implemented on both Parties in case of violating treaty on the basis of Article 9. India’s over dramatic staunch leader needs to understand that exploiting Pakistan’s source of survival will bring both countries at a brink of war.
India is playing moves that ensure blocking Pakistan water from all sides. At one side India is building Kishanganga Dam in Jammu and Kashmir that is designed to divert water from the Kishanganga River known as Neelum River in Pakistan to a power plant in the Jhelum River basin. Pakistan protested against this due to which the construction was halted since 2011 till 2013 on the orders of Hague's Permanent Court of Arbitration (CoA). But in May 2018 PM Narendra Modi inaugurated the project barely meters away from the Line of Control in the disputed Kashmir region with the aim of generating 1,713 million units of electricity per year.
Not only this, India is also playing dirty politics by leaving no stone unturned in choking Pakistan’s water flow by assisting Afghanistan in building $236 million Shahtoot Dam project on the Kabul River which is expected to be completed in three years’ time. This Dam will not just reduce water flow into Pakistan but could further erode already fraying relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Like Afghanistan, Pakistan is a water-stressed country and the overwhelming majority of its people depend on agriculture to earn a living. Kabul River is significant mostly for the Northern part of Pakistan which comprise of 2 million residents. Pakistanis fear that the benefits they draw from the Kabul River would be jeopardized if Afghanistan builds 12 hydropower projects that store 4,7 MAF water for Afghanistan. This will adversely impact Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and decrease in water flow there will reduce crop productivity in the three currently fertile districts of Peshawar, Nowshera, and Charsada. Not only Pakistan but Iran as well is blaming Afghanistan for mounting tensions over water due to its “aggressive dam building” and unwillingness to negotiate over river sharing.
Although this recent Water politics by India has evoked concern in the lower riparian country, Pakistan but India fails to realize that it stands at Middle Riparian geographical location vis-a-vis China and Pak. Both Indus and Sutlej flow from China through India into Pak. China has already signaled its possible role in case a conflict arises with respect to Indus and its tributaries and India does not have any agreement or treaty which regulates the sharing or flow of water from China. India must not forget that its Jugular Artery of Brahmaputra River originates from the Tibet Territory of China and flows through India into Bangladesh. Being a time tested ally of Pak, China will imperatively intervene in a situation where India plans to choke water supply to Pakistan, and make India have a taste of its own medicine.
India cannot look forward to drying Pak without having run the risk of drowning many of its own cities. India’s capacity to hold, store and regulate water even on the rivers, it legally owns, is highly despicable. The same is evident from floods that wreak havoc in IoK and parts of Eastern Punjab on a regular basis. In case India also intends to mingle with the flow of the rivers it neither has any claim over nor any experience of handling severe natural calamities are lying in wait for much of northern India.
IWT is seen as one of the most successful international treaties, as it survived frequent tensions, conflicts, and has provided a framework for irrigation and hydropower development for more than half a century. Recently, the grievances of contracting parties, lead to the possibility that the present cooperation may turn into a future conflict. Since the hardliner BJP government came into being the relations between India and Pakistan are passing through a very rough patch. Recently PM Modi the leader of staunch Hindutva supporters stated that “Blood and water cannot flow together”. His statement that “Water that belongs to India cannot be allowed to go to Pakistan” represents how this water issue is intensely politicized in India because hawks in India are publically demanding for abrogating the treaty without realizing the side effects or rationality of their demand. Narendra Modi fails to realize that his statement is an attempt of pushing both countries to the brink of war as the treaty cannot be scraped unilaterally as the World Bank is the Mediator while certain restrictions are implemented on both Parties in case of violating treaty on the basis of Article 9. India’s over dramatic staunch leader needs to understand that exploiting Pakistan’s source of survival will bring both countries at a brink of war.
India is playing moves that ensure blocking Pakistan water from all sides. At one side India is building Kishanganga Dam in Jammu and Kashmir that is designed to divert water from the Kishanganga River known as Neelum River in Pakistan to a power plant in the Jhelum River basin. Pakistan protested against this due to which the construction was halted since 2011 till 2013 on the orders of Hague's Permanent Court of Arbitration (CoA). But in May 2018 PM Narendra Modi inaugurated the project barely meters away from the Line of Control in the disputed Kashmir region with the aim of generating 1,713 million units of electricity per year.
Not only this, India is also playing dirty politics by leaving no stone unturned in choking Pakistan’s water flow by assisting Afghanistan in building $236 million Shahtoot Dam project on the Kabul River which is expected to be completed in three years’ time. This Dam will not just reduce water flow into Pakistan but could further erode already fraying relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Like Afghanistan, Pakistan is a water-stressed country and the overwhelming majority of its people depend on agriculture to earn a living. Kabul River is significant mostly for the Northern part of Pakistan which comprise of 2 million residents. Pakistanis fear that the benefits they draw from the Kabul River would be jeopardized if Afghanistan builds 12 hydropower projects that store 4,7 MAF water for Afghanistan. This will adversely impact Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and decrease in water flow there will reduce crop productivity in the three currently fertile districts of Peshawar, Nowshera, and Charsada. Not only Pakistan but Iran as well is blaming Afghanistan for mounting tensions over water due to its “aggressive dam building” and unwillingness to negotiate over river sharing.
Although this recent Water politics by India has evoked concern in the lower riparian country, Pakistan but India fails to realize that it stands at Middle Riparian geographical location vis-a-vis China and Pak. Both Indus and Sutlej flow from China through India into Pak. China has already signaled its possible role in case a conflict arises with respect to Indus and its tributaries and India does not have any agreement or treaty which regulates the sharing or flow of water from China. India must not forget that its Jugular Artery of Brahmaputra River originates from the Tibet Territory of China and flows through India into Bangladesh. Being a time tested ally of Pak, China will imperatively intervene in a situation where India plans to choke water supply to Pakistan, and make India have a taste of its own medicine.
India cannot look forward to drying Pak without having run the risk of drowning many of its own cities. India’s capacity to hold, store and regulate water even on the rivers, it legally owns, is highly despicable. The same is evident from floods that wreak havoc in IoK and parts of Eastern Punjab on a regular basis. In case India also intends to mingle with the flow of the rivers it neither has any claim over nor any experience of handling severe natural calamities are lying in wait for much of northern India.
