The war between USA and China can be avoided, but the war between India and China is inevitable

[SecularNationalist]

Yes that's from a 2009 report, by NTI/ICNND. Some data in the report could from earlier times, China's data were from 1990.

China's 294 megatons of thermonuclear deterrence

A high-yield, low-warhead arsenal could also imply that the accuracy of Chinese ICBMs wasn't exactly all that impressive, at least at the time of this publication's release. Agree that's a trade off, on/before the time of this 2009 Report, the carrier China relied on was only silo-based ICBM...

defence.pk

http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/pdf/ICNND_Report-EliminatingNuclearThreats.pdf

India claiming to be a "nuke power" is like Somalia claiming to be "air force power" after buying a few jets, it's not just about "have" and "have not", it's about what one has. Even if India is insane enough to press the button, their total firepower tops 1 MT (smaller than half of a single PLA 1st gen thermonuclear warhead) at best can hurt China, if they are lucky, but that means total annihilation of 1.4 billion Indians, for sure.

That's why I think China-India war will be conventional, with a clear objective to change its anti-Asia regime, and actively anticipate/mitigate any possibilities that someone in India will press the "suicidal" nuke button.

As I've said in my post above . In nuclear or conventional war Indian defeat is imminent . There is no way India can win a war with china. We are talking about here the deterrents which avoids a war between India and china.
Even if indian nuke is less than 1MT that still means millions of chinese dead and few industrial cities gone which can put the economical progress on halt for few years. Is that a small price to pay for the chinese ?

 

[Bossman]

In case of joint China Pakistan multi-pronged operations in Ladakh/JK, IA’s collapse will be quicker than the Afghan National Army. India will not up the nuclear ante in case of a localized conflict in Ladakh/JK. For China it is not necessarily about land or sovereignty but rather about showing it dominance over India to the world, which has significant global implications. China will not allow India to become a credible counter weight.

 

[Shotgunner51]

As I've said in my post above . In nuclear or conventional war Indian defeat is imminent . There is no way India can win a war with china. We are talking about here the deterrents which avoids a war between India and china.
Even if indian nuke is less than 1MT that still means millions of chinese dead and few industrial cities gone which can put the economical progress on halt for few years. Is that a small price to pay for the chinese ?

Life is priceless so of course not even one should die for no reason, but as seen in history loss of life is inevitable in any war, sad but that's the hard reality.

Take a look at the simulation of a PLARF 2nd gen thermonuclear warhead on New Delhi, 5 MT brings total casualties 14 million, how much India's tiny firepower can do to China? Even assuming it get through China's ballistic missile defence? If China gets hurt, for sure all Indian cities will be eliminated at once, anything left cleared by conventional forces. This worst case scenario is of course not what China wants, but it is a calculated risk, when war is the only means to resolve the problem: India's anti-China/Pak populism and its servitude to the west. The region can only gain long term peace and prosperity after this problem is solved.

 

[Rollno21]

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSJVsN2bHYvgwz9E4JftXEOPZixtmPgMx6z4Q&usqp=CAU

India ,China, US are like the characters in the story were two cats fight over sharing a bread and the cat comes and help to divide the bread between cats.

We all know China is one of the cats ,how india or US will operate will determine who will be the monkey and who will be the cat.

 

[Rollno21]

Life is priceless so of course not even one should die for no reason, but as seen in history loss of life is inevitable in any war, sad but that's the hard reality.

Take a look at the simulation of a PLARF 2nd gen thermonuclear warhead on New Delhi, 5 MT brings total casualties 14 million, how much India's tiny firepower can do to China? Even assuming it get through China's ballistic missile defence? If China gets hurt, for sure all Indian cities will be eliminated at once, anything left cleared by conventional forces. This worst case scenario is of course not what China wants, but it is a calculated risk, when war is the only means to resolve the problem: India's anti-China/Pak populism and its servitude to the west. The region can only gain long term peace and prosperity after this problem is solved.

View attachment 791439

Please don't talk for a sake of it. You know nothing about NW.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

62年的事情就不提了。2001年，在中印中段，无争议区，印军向中国境内推进1公里，占领了东章瀑布，直到现在也没有收回。最近几年印度搞“东进政策”，就是领土扩张野心不死。

另外，你不要忘了。中国已经进入老龄化社会。但印度平均年龄只有27岁，也就是说中国发展后劲乏力。
东章瀑布 百度百科

平均年龄与经济发展无关。非洲多国平均年龄和教育程度都高于印度，但很少有人会说非洲有发展优势。即便中国现在经济止步不前印度也需要30年赶上，而且这是假设印度可以持续发展那么就。

饥寒交迫的文盲再年轻，到底能对经济有多大的贡献？不说贡献，能不能不成为发展的绊脚石都难说。

The only way for India to truly become a superpower is ironically by allowing Chinese investment, learning Chinese technology and economically integrating with China. Every country that has economically integrated with China has become richer.

Give up all pretensions to Pakistan and Bangladesh. Adopt RMB as reserve currency. Put a socialist party in power and imprison Hindu nationalists, exploiters, con artists, liars, religious quacks, etc. Then India can possibly become an actual superpower.

China has a method that is proven to work to transform developing countries into superpowers. India has decided to instead follow the imperial example of UK. But unfortunately for India, UK was a successful imperial conqueror and had revolutionary trch (steam engine), India is... Much less so.

 

[Shotgunner51]

The only way for India to truly become a superpower is ironically by allowing Chinese investment, learning Chinese technology and economically integrating with China. Every country that has economically integrated with China has become richer.

Give up all pretensions to Pakistan and Bangladesh. Adopt RMB as reserve currency. Put a socialist party in power and imprison Hindu nationalists, exploiters, con artists, liars, religious quacks, etc. Then India can possibly become an actual superpower.

True, but it will never turn out that way. Personality determines the future of a person, not rationale.

US like a mob boss, together with his junior associates (rest of the west) they have been ruling the town for decades. Now they see China as another rising mob threatening their lunch, of course they will jump on him, kill him if necessary. Will there be a full-blown gang war? Likely, but the mob boss is still a businessman, it's about the lunch, perhaps deals can be cut with China, after all China is also about business, killing is not the objective. But India is a different personality, he desparately wants recognition from the mob boss, and will doing everything to demonstrate his loyalty including killing China. He will continue to stab China, and stab again, non-stop until he proves himself useful to the mob boss. He is on his self-imposed mission to kill China, it's not business. That's why war with India is inevitable.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSJVsN2bHYvgwz9E4JftXEOPZixtmPgMx6z4Q&usqp=CAU

India ,China, US are like the characters in the story were two cats fight over sharing a bread and the cat comes and help to divide the bread between cats.

We all know China is one of the cats ,how india or US will operate will determine who will be the monkey and who will be the cat.

Its not that simple

USA is former colonial master of China

When Americans Ruled Beijing

USA to China is what UK was to India

All colonial powers attempt to interfere in the affairs of their former colonies

In India's case after 1971 UK has not made any attempts to interfere in subcontinent affairs also the UK lacks those capabilities

In China's case USA continued to toy around with Chinese internal affairs

From gun boat diplomacy
The Taiwan Straits Crises: 1954–55 and 1958

to bombing Chinese embassy
United States bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade

Indian leaders pitied China during to colonial struggles as Chinese anti-colonial leader Sun Yet San was sympathetic to Indian freedom struggle

Current China is run by CCP, which is deranged creation of Soviets and its fate seems to be same as its creator

Current Chinese people are fine being USA's punchbag as its define's their self-worth

Their own founding father wanted to sell 10 million Chinese women to USA
Mao offered 10m women for trade with US

India needs ensure the survival of Chinese civilization from current CCP leadership to post CCP leadership , though we may not be able to save all

Call it the "brown man burden" if you like

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

True, but it will never turn out that way. Personality determines the future of a person, not rationale.

Sometimes making an example of a minor thug is a great way to gain deterrence.

 

[Brainsucker]

62年的事情就不提了。2001年，在中印中段，无争议区，印军向中国境内推进1公里，占领了东章瀑布，直到现在也没有收回。最近几年印度搞“东进政策”，就是领土扩张野心不死。

另外，你不要忘了。中国已经进入老龄化社会。但印度平均年龄只有27岁，也就是说中国发展后劲乏力。
东章瀑布 百度百科

Do you think that IF Chinese Central Government order CPC cadre to have at least 2 children, then nobody will comply? CPC is a huge party. Somebody said that they have at least 100 millions cadre. Old and Young. If they order their young Cadres to married and have at least 2 children, then will they answer the order?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Its not that simple

USA is former colonial master of China

When Americans Ruled Beijing

USA to China is what UK was to India

All colonial powers attempt to interfere in the affairs of their former colonies

In India's case after 1971 UK has not made any attempts to interfere in subcontinent affairs also the UK lacks those capabilities

Try reading your own source. Are you saying occupying a single city for 55 days during a shooting war is the same as... Allowing yourselves to be enslaved for 200+ years through the entirety of your land without firing a shot?

But I understand the frustration. For Chinese, losing a few cities for 2 months is a major humiliation. To Indians this is comparable to 200 years of slavery.

If Indians lost "merely" a city for 55 days to UK they'd have you believe they conquered the UK instead! I mean apparently they've spun the total rout in 1962 into a win, the total humiliation in Galwan into a win... What next?

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Try reading your own source. Are you saying occupying a single city for 55 days during a shooting war is the same as... Allowing yourselves to be enslaved for 200+ years through the entirety of your land without firing a shot?

That was China's story, couple of shots of opium and China was enslaved by Brits

British ruled your kind for several years after most of the world was decolonized

And certainly seemed to have left an impression

 

[El Sidd]

Intervention in India can avoid the inevitable war.

The 2 countries are legally and technically at war. One doesn't recognize legitimacy of governance in disputed areas whereas other host separatist government in exile.

 

[silverox]

I’m not interested in fighting with India. Even if China won, it won’t benefit. We just have tens of millions of ethnic minority grandfathers to support.

 

[Chhatrapati]

That's why I think China-India war will be conventional, with a clear objective to change its anti-Asia regime, and actively anticipate/mitigate any possibilities that someone in India will press the "suicidal" nuke button.

China couldn't cross a narrow sea to invade its breakaway Taiwan. You're bragging about taking on India, coming down mountains and forests. There is no need to press any nuke buttons, conventional war along India China border itself is difficult with steep mountains, unpredictable weather patterns the logistical nightmare that brings with it and tactical disadvantage for an invading force to mount an invasion. If two wars with Pakistan has taught us something about mountain warfare is it's impossibly difficult and any gains you made will be pointless when a cease fire is achieved.