'The twitch in my eye'
My left eye is twitching once again as I hear of US President Barack Obamas visit to India in November 2010. Sources say that the visit will focus on enhancement of the Indo-US relationship in areas of defence and economy, including acquisition of C 17 and F 35 aircraft, that would be a major US facilitated step towards setting up India as the South Asian Watchdog. As the clock to this high profile event winds down, I wait with bated breath for New Delhi to generate another terror incident, put the blame squarely on Pakistan and present it as another piece of irrefutable evidence to the US team. Resultantly, Pakistans credibility as a coalition ally takes another severe beating and India moves a step closer to achieving its long sought aim of becoming the power that calls the shots in South Asia.
To Indias neighbours this scenario is nightmarish. Perhaps, Pakistan is the only South Asian state that can withstand Indian coercion and that too because it has a credible deterrence in place. It is this deterrence that irks our traditional adversary the most. To undo Pakistan, India must first neutralize our nuclear military capability and it is here that the Indo-US convergence of interest manifests itself.
Indias hegemonic mania is there for everyone to see in the cases of Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal and any attempt to establish India in a regional watchdog status will be like setting the wolf to guard a flock of sheep. Only Pakistan stands in the way of this grand design and that puts us squarely in the line of fire.
The question is whether all this will happen in accordance with what appears to be an Indo-US game plan. The answer lies squarely in the lap of our time-tested ally and friend, the Peoples Republic of China. The Chinese have in the past decade grown into a potent global power lending credence to the theory that unipolarity is unnatural and the world has to become bi- or multipolar to achieve a balance. The Chinese consider domination of the Indian Ocean vital for their power projection and economic interests. In Pakistan, they see a friend which can provide that access. The Chinese also consider themselves to be the leaders in the Asia-Pacific region and would resent any attempts to alter this position. Hence, neither Mr Obama nor Mr Manmohan Singh will find it easy or savoury to make India the policeman of South Asia.
Perhaps, the White House is looking at India as a counterbalance and containment tool against China. This would be a naïve and disastrous move as the Indians cannot be trusted to remain loyal to US interests in the long term.
Then there is the question as to how would Pakistan react to US intentions viz India? A joint Indo-US threat would offer a straight and clear option for Pakistan to enter into long-term security pacts with the Chinese. The impact such a move will have on the war against terror and US interests in the region will be nothing less than disastrous for the latter. The situation would also create what can best be described as a security crescent around India creating its own implications in terms of Indian threat perception.
If the US claims of it being a champion of peace are, true then Mr Obama should strive through all means possible to force the Indians towards resolution of all major disputes that have led to acrimony between the two nuclear-tipped rivals. The most critical of these disputes is the long festering Kashmir Issue that has been the cause of three wars between India and Pakistan. If the US President can accomplish this, he will go down in history as a champion of world peace. If, on the other hand, he continues to sponsor what can best be called Indian gangsterism, he will be remembered as someone who squandered the opportunity of a lifetime to continue his league with the devil.
On our side, Pakistani policymakers need to understand that convergence of interest with India will not deter USA from a pronounced tilt towards Pakistans eastern neighbour even at the risk of a destabilised and volatile South Asian region. It is with this cognizance that we should formulate our strategic thinking and national policies that project national pride, unity and courage to stand up against what is wrong. Perhaps, we should begin looking at a new relationship with the Chinese, before it is too late.
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