fatman17
PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2007
- Messages
- 32,563
- Reaction score
- 98
- Country
- Location
perception of the west & particularly the US.....
The Threat From Pakistan
Pakistans quest for nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles stems largely from its rivalry with its neighbor India, with whom it has fought wars in 1947, 1965, and 1971. Its other neighbor to the east, China, has for decades supplied Pakistan with missile and nuclear technology for the purpose of offsetting an up-and-coming world power. Pakistan currently possesses between 30 and 70 nuclear warheads, as well as short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. In addition, it is currently developing nuclear-capable Ghauri-3 intermediate-range missiles, which are designed for long-range strikes against civilian and military targets deep inside India.
Nuclear Program
Pakistan is the only Muslim country that possesses nuclear weapons, the motivating factor of which is its rivalry with India. In 1972, President Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto established Pakistans nuclear program, which gathered momentum after Indias 1974 nuclear test, which altered the balance of power in South Asia. Through the late 1970s, Pakistans program acquired uranium enrichment technology and expertise, which benefited from the 1975 arrival of Dr. A. Q. Khan, otherwise known as the father of Pakistans nuclear weapons program.
In 1985, Pakistan obtained weapons-grade uranium production, and by 1986 is believed to have produced enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Pakistan continued advancing its uranium enrichment program through the 1990s, and on May 28, 1998, announced that it had successfully conducted five nuclear tests. Two days later, Pakistan tested an additional nuclear warhead with a reported yield of 12 kT. At present, Pakistan possesses between 30 and 70 nuclear weapons, which it uses to ward off potential nuclear blackmail, provide a second strike capability, stave off Indias conventional military, and maintain political autonomy. Pakistans nuclear program also reflects its determination to defy the West and elevate its status in the Islamic world, most notably in Central Asia.
Despite its uses, Pakistans nuclear program lacks a clearly defined doctrine. In fact, it is likely that Pakistan is intentionally ambiguous about its nuclear policies in order to provide an extra layer of deterrence. However, it must be emphasized that Pakistans warheads and missiles are weapons of warfare, not just political tools. Pakistans conventional military is weak, and therefore the Muslim nation has a large incentive for first use. Possible events that might trigger a nuclear conflict include a loss of territory, a conventional military defeat, economic strangulation, or internal destabilization.
Ballistic Missile Program
To deliver its nuclear warheads, Pakistan possesses a host of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, and is currently developing intermediate-range models. The program exists under the aegis of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission and the Khan Research Laboratories. The overriding theme in Pakistans ballistic missile development is foreign assistance, most notably from China and North Korea. Over the years, China has provided considerable technology and expertise to its ally. Many of Pakistans missile designs and technology have come from Chinese plans, or have been reverse-engineered from Chinese M-11 missiles sold to Pakistan.[1] China has also helped Pakistan build a turnkey ballistic missile production facility at Tarwanah. In addition, North Korea has sold Pakistan a large amount of missile technology, including a small number of No-dong missiles, as was recently acknowledged by former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.[2]
Short-Range Ballistic Missiles
Pakistans short-range arsenal includes the Haft-1, Haft-2, Haft-2A, Haft-3, and Haft-4 missiles. The road-mobile, solid propellant Haft-1 is battlefield short-range ballistic missile (BSRBM). A tactical system with a range of approximately 70 km, it is essentially an unguided artillery rocket used for bombardment. It is capable of carrying a 500 kg conventional warhead across a battlefield or at a general target area. If properly aimed, it can hit within several kilometers of the target area.[3] The Haft-2 (Abdali) is a two-stage version of the Haft-1. Its longer range of 180 km allows it to be used against military targets such as bases or airfields, although its relatively small warhead makes it impractical for deployment against civilian population centers.[4]
The Hatf-2A system represents a substantial divergence away from the Haft-2. It is most likely an imported Chinese M-11 (CSS-7). It has a range of 300 km and can carry a wide range of warheads including nuclear weapons. At present, Haft-2A missiles are deployed throughout the Pakistani-Indian border and are generally hidden in caves or other terrain features that obscure the missile and its mobile launching system from detection.[5] Like the Haft-2A, the Haft-3 (Ghaznavi) is derived from the Chinese M-11. It has a range of 290 km and carries a nuclear or conventional payload. Most effective against large, fixed targets, the Haft-3 easily outdistances most battlefield weapons and is ideal for striking bases, airfields, and cities.[6]
Like its predecessors, the Haft-4 (Shaheen-1) also appears to have been based on Chinese design. It has a range of 750-800 km and is designed to destroy strategic assets with a nuclear or conventional warhead. Although its accuracy is insufficient to destroy a military target, the Haft-4 is easily capable of striking key facilities, such as an airports, oil refineries, shipyards, ports, or factories. If equipped with submunitions, it seems likely that it could be deployed against a military column, though the limited accuracy makes this less practical. The range on the Hatf-4 allows it to reach major targets within India and the mobile launch vehicle gives it a high degree of mobility and flexibility.[7]
Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles
Pakistans medium-range arsenal includes the Haft-5 and Haft-6 missiles. The Haft-5 (Ghauri-1) is believed to be based upon technology derived from the North Korean No-dong 1 and 2, although this is denied by North Korea. It also appears that the Hatf-5 might have been developed in conjunction with Iran, as the Iranian Shahab-3 missile appears extremely similar to the Hatf-5 both in appearance and capabilities. It is reliably reported that all three countries cooperated extensively since 1993. The Haft-5 has a range of between 1,300 and 1,800 km and carries a 760 kg payload. Its main drawback is its limited accuracy, which means that the only truly effective use for the Hatf-5 would be striking civilian areas, most likely with a low yield nuclear weapon. A variant, the Haft-5A (Ghauri-2), is a longer ranged version of the Hatf-5, developed by increasing the length of the motor assembly and using improved propellants.[8]
The Haft-6 (Shaheen-2) is a strategic missile with a reported range of 2,000 km. It is allegedly equipped with multiple nuclear warheads. Unlike the Haft-5, the Haft-5 is capable of striking strategic targets such as airports, manufacturing complexes, military bases, and civilian facilities (power plants, water purification centers, etc.) with a reasonable chance of damaging or destroying the target. Due to the advancing nuclear and missile programs in India, the Hatf-6 will probably be targeted at Indian population centers to deter against an Indian nuclear strike. Equipped with a nuclear warhead, it would be capable of causing widespread damage. The mobility provided from its mobile launch vehicle maximizes the missiles survivability in the event of a war and prevents a successful pre-emptive strike.[9]
Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles
In addition to its short- and medium-range missiles, Pakistan is currently at work on an intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Ghauri-3. Pakistans longest range program, the nuclear-capable Ghauri-3 is believed to have a range of 3,500 km, which would allow it to strike deep within India against civilian and military targets. Based on similarities between the Ghauri and the North Korean No-dong missile, it is believed that the Ghauri-III represents a Pakistani derivative of the two-stage North Korean Taepo-dong 1 missile, which uses the No-dong as a first stage.[10] Sources indicate that Pakistan conducted a successful motor test in September 1999. In June 2004, Pakistan indicated that it would test the Ghauri-3, but according to news reports it instead launched two Haft-5 missiles.[11]
Proliferation
In addition to its nuclear brinksmanship with India, Pakistan engages in dangerous proliferation behavior. First and foremost, Pakistan serves as an intermediary for the larger proliferation of Chinese nuclear and missile technology. In June 2004, for instance, it was revealed that Libya had received the blueprints for a Chinese nuclear warhead via A. Q. Khans Pakistani proliferation network.[12] The previous March, it was reported that Pakistan, along with China, had surpassed North Korea as the chief missile proliferators to rogue Middle Eastern nations such as Iran and Syria.[13] Although Pakistan officially claims to adhere to the general principles of nonproliferation, at present it has not yet signed the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which prohibits countries from trading in ballistic missile technology, especially those missiles with a range of 350 kilometers or greater.[14]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] Duncan Lennox, Janes Strategic Weapons Systems 42 (Surrey: Janes Information Group, January 2005), 47-48, 135, 136, 137-138
[2] Asahi Shimbun, 18 July 2004.
[3] Lennox, 134.
[4] Lennox, 135.
[5] Lennox, 47-48, 135.
[6] Lennox, 136.
[7] Lennox, 137-138.
[8] Lennox, 139-140.
[9] Lennox, 141, 142.
[10] GlobalSecurity.org, Ghauri-III/Abdali, available at Abdali - Pakistan Missile Special Weapons Delivery Systems, accessed on 25 August 2005.
[11] Nawa-i-Waqt, 21 May and 28 May 2004.
[12] Inside the Ring, The Washington Times, 22 July 2004.
[13] East-Asia-Intel, 17 March 2004.
[14] Kyodo News Service, 2 June 2005.
The Threat From Pakistan
Pakistans quest for nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles stems largely from its rivalry with its neighbor India, with whom it has fought wars in 1947, 1965, and 1971. Its other neighbor to the east, China, has for decades supplied Pakistan with missile and nuclear technology for the purpose of offsetting an up-and-coming world power. Pakistan currently possesses between 30 and 70 nuclear warheads, as well as short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. In addition, it is currently developing nuclear-capable Ghauri-3 intermediate-range missiles, which are designed for long-range strikes against civilian and military targets deep inside India.
Nuclear Program
Pakistan is the only Muslim country that possesses nuclear weapons, the motivating factor of which is its rivalry with India. In 1972, President Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto established Pakistans nuclear program, which gathered momentum after Indias 1974 nuclear test, which altered the balance of power in South Asia. Through the late 1970s, Pakistans program acquired uranium enrichment technology and expertise, which benefited from the 1975 arrival of Dr. A. Q. Khan, otherwise known as the father of Pakistans nuclear weapons program.
In 1985, Pakistan obtained weapons-grade uranium production, and by 1986 is believed to have produced enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Pakistan continued advancing its uranium enrichment program through the 1990s, and on May 28, 1998, announced that it had successfully conducted five nuclear tests. Two days later, Pakistan tested an additional nuclear warhead with a reported yield of 12 kT. At present, Pakistan possesses between 30 and 70 nuclear weapons, which it uses to ward off potential nuclear blackmail, provide a second strike capability, stave off Indias conventional military, and maintain political autonomy. Pakistans nuclear program also reflects its determination to defy the West and elevate its status in the Islamic world, most notably in Central Asia.
Despite its uses, Pakistans nuclear program lacks a clearly defined doctrine. In fact, it is likely that Pakistan is intentionally ambiguous about its nuclear policies in order to provide an extra layer of deterrence. However, it must be emphasized that Pakistans warheads and missiles are weapons of warfare, not just political tools. Pakistans conventional military is weak, and therefore the Muslim nation has a large incentive for first use. Possible events that might trigger a nuclear conflict include a loss of territory, a conventional military defeat, economic strangulation, or internal destabilization.
Ballistic Missile Program
To deliver its nuclear warheads, Pakistan possesses a host of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, and is currently developing intermediate-range models. The program exists under the aegis of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission and the Khan Research Laboratories. The overriding theme in Pakistans ballistic missile development is foreign assistance, most notably from China and North Korea. Over the years, China has provided considerable technology and expertise to its ally. Many of Pakistans missile designs and technology have come from Chinese plans, or have been reverse-engineered from Chinese M-11 missiles sold to Pakistan.[1] China has also helped Pakistan build a turnkey ballistic missile production facility at Tarwanah. In addition, North Korea has sold Pakistan a large amount of missile technology, including a small number of No-dong missiles, as was recently acknowledged by former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.[2]
Short-Range Ballistic Missiles
Pakistans short-range arsenal includes the Haft-1, Haft-2, Haft-2A, Haft-3, and Haft-4 missiles. The road-mobile, solid propellant Haft-1 is battlefield short-range ballistic missile (BSRBM). A tactical system with a range of approximately 70 km, it is essentially an unguided artillery rocket used for bombardment. It is capable of carrying a 500 kg conventional warhead across a battlefield or at a general target area. If properly aimed, it can hit within several kilometers of the target area.[3] The Haft-2 (Abdali) is a two-stage version of the Haft-1. Its longer range of 180 km allows it to be used against military targets such as bases or airfields, although its relatively small warhead makes it impractical for deployment against civilian population centers.[4]
The Hatf-2A system represents a substantial divergence away from the Haft-2. It is most likely an imported Chinese M-11 (CSS-7). It has a range of 300 km and can carry a wide range of warheads including nuclear weapons. At present, Haft-2A missiles are deployed throughout the Pakistani-Indian border and are generally hidden in caves or other terrain features that obscure the missile and its mobile launching system from detection.[5] Like the Haft-2A, the Haft-3 (Ghaznavi) is derived from the Chinese M-11. It has a range of 290 km and carries a nuclear or conventional payload. Most effective against large, fixed targets, the Haft-3 easily outdistances most battlefield weapons and is ideal for striking bases, airfields, and cities.[6]
Like its predecessors, the Haft-4 (Shaheen-1) also appears to have been based on Chinese design. It has a range of 750-800 km and is designed to destroy strategic assets with a nuclear or conventional warhead. Although its accuracy is insufficient to destroy a military target, the Haft-4 is easily capable of striking key facilities, such as an airports, oil refineries, shipyards, ports, or factories. If equipped with submunitions, it seems likely that it could be deployed against a military column, though the limited accuracy makes this less practical. The range on the Hatf-4 allows it to reach major targets within India and the mobile launch vehicle gives it a high degree of mobility and flexibility.[7]
Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles
Pakistans medium-range arsenal includes the Haft-5 and Haft-6 missiles. The Haft-5 (Ghauri-1) is believed to be based upon technology derived from the North Korean No-dong 1 and 2, although this is denied by North Korea. It also appears that the Hatf-5 might have been developed in conjunction with Iran, as the Iranian Shahab-3 missile appears extremely similar to the Hatf-5 both in appearance and capabilities. It is reliably reported that all three countries cooperated extensively since 1993. The Haft-5 has a range of between 1,300 and 1,800 km and carries a 760 kg payload. Its main drawback is its limited accuracy, which means that the only truly effective use for the Hatf-5 would be striking civilian areas, most likely with a low yield nuclear weapon. A variant, the Haft-5A (Ghauri-2), is a longer ranged version of the Hatf-5, developed by increasing the length of the motor assembly and using improved propellants.[8]
The Haft-6 (Shaheen-2) is a strategic missile with a reported range of 2,000 km. It is allegedly equipped with multiple nuclear warheads. Unlike the Haft-5, the Haft-5 is capable of striking strategic targets such as airports, manufacturing complexes, military bases, and civilian facilities (power plants, water purification centers, etc.) with a reasonable chance of damaging or destroying the target. Due to the advancing nuclear and missile programs in India, the Hatf-6 will probably be targeted at Indian population centers to deter against an Indian nuclear strike. Equipped with a nuclear warhead, it would be capable of causing widespread damage. The mobility provided from its mobile launch vehicle maximizes the missiles survivability in the event of a war and prevents a successful pre-emptive strike.[9]
Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles
In addition to its short- and medium-range missiles, Pakistan is currently at work on an intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Ghauri-3. Pakistans longest range program, the nuclear-capable Ghauri-3 is believed to have a range of 3,500 km, which would allow it to strike deep within India against civilian and military targets. Based on similarities between the Ghauri and the North Korean No-dong missile, it is believed that the Ghauri-III represents a Pakistani derivative of the two-stage North Korean Taepo-dong 1 missile, which uses the No-dong as a first stage.[10] Sources indicate that Pakistan conducted a successful motor test in September 1999. In June 2004, Pakistan indicated that it would test the Ghauri-3, but according to news reports it instead launched two Haft-5 missiles.[11]
Proliferation
In addition to its nuclear brinksmanship with India, Pakistan engages in dangerous proliferation behavior. First and foremost, Pakistan serves as an intermediary for the larger proliferation of Chinese nuclear and missile technology. In June 2004, for instance, it was revealed that Libya had received the blueprints for a Chinese nuclear warhead via A. Q. Khans Pakistani proliferation network.[12] The previous March, it was reported that Pakistan, along with China, had surpassed North Korea as the chief missile proliferators to rogue Middle Eastern nations such as Iran and Syria.[13] Although Pakistan officially claims to adhere to the general principles of nonproliferation, at present it has not yet signed the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which prohibits countries from trading in ballistic missile technology, especially those missiles with a range of 350 kilometers or greater.[14]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] Duncan Lennox, Janes Strategic Weapons Systems 42 (Surrey: Janes Information Group, January 2005), 47-48, 135, 136, 137-138
[2] Asahi Shimbun, 18 July 2004.
[3] Lennox, 134.
[4] Lennox, 135.
[5] Lennox, 47-48, 135.
[6] Lennox, 136.
[7] Lennox, 137-138.
[8] Lennox, 139-140.
[9] Lennox, 141, 142.
[10] GlobalSecurity.org, Ghauri-III/Abdali, available at Abdali - Pakistan Missile Special Weapons Delivery Systems, accessed on 25 August 2005.
[11] Nawa-i-Waqt, 21 May and 28 May 2004.
[12] Inside the Ring, The Washington Times, 22 July 2004.
[13] East-Asia-Intel, 17 March 2004.
[14] Kyodo News Service, 2 June 2005.
