The Ten Hot, New `Emerging' Countries

[Gibbs]

Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, the Philippines and Sri Lanka: strong potential confirmed by a sound business environment
Coface identifies only 10 "new emerging" countries which meet all the criteria. However, these countries are not the same in terms of their business environments - the weaknesses of which can stifle growth. This leads Coface to distinguish two groups in the "new emerging" countries:

• Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, the Philippines and Sri Lanka have a sound business climate (A4 or B), similar to that of the BRIC countries today.

• Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Ethiopiahave very difficult (C) or extremely difficult (D) business environments which could hamper their growth prospects.

Coface identifies 10 emerging countries hot on the heels of the BRICS / News / News & Publications - Coface

COFACE IDENTIFIES 10 EMERGING COUNTRIES HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE BRICS

After 10 years of frenetic growth, the BRICS are slowing down sharply: for 2014, Coface forecasts growth of on average 3.2 points lower than the average growth these countries registered over the previous decade. At the same time, other emerging countries are accelerating their development. Among them, a ‘top 10’ emerges with good production prospects and sufficient financing to support expansion.





In addition to accelerating high growth, financing is needed to boost investment
Despite a consumer trend that remains favourable, the BRICS are experiencing a growth downturn due to an adjustment in supply and a marked slow-down in investment. Local businesses no longer have sufficient production capacity to meet continued strong demand.

To identify the promising countries that the BRICS are now giving way to, Coface identified several criteria, including two that are essential:

• Countries that have high growth which is accelerating, and whose economy is diversified and resilient to growth slowdowns ;
• Countries that have sufficient funding capacity to finance growth (a minimum level of savings needed to avoid excessive recourse to foreign savings), without the risk of creating a credit bubble or which do not yet have equity markets of a comparable size of those in OECD countries.

Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, the Philippines and Sri Lanka: strong potential confirmed by a sound business environment
Coface identifies only 10 "new emerging" countries which meet all the criteria. However, these countries are not the same in terms of their business environments - the weaknesses of which can stifle growth. This leads Coface to distinguish two groups in the "new emerging" countries:

• Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, the Philippines and Sri Lankahave a sound business climate (A4 or B), similar to that of the BRIC countries today.

• Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Ethiopiahave very difficult (C) or extremely difficult (D) business environments which could hamper their growth prospects.

"Naturally, it will be more difficult for the second group of countries, who could take longer to fully realise their growth potential. However, their business environment problems are relative: in 2001, the quality of governance in Brazil, China, India and Russia was comparable to that of Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Ethiopia today,"says Julien Marcilly, Head of country risk at Coface.



Growth of the "new emerging" countries will take a different path than for the BRICS
Some weaknesses compared to the BRICS in the 2000s persist nonetheless. Firstly, the 10 identified "new emerging" countries currently only represent 11% of the world’s population while the BRICS accounted for 43% of the population in 2001. Secondly, their GDP level is only 70% of that of the BRICS in 2001. Finally, the BRICS recorded on average a current account surplus while the “new emerging” countries run a deficit of around 6% of GDP.

"With growth in developed countries being structurally weaker today, the "new emerging" countries may benefit less from trade towards these countries than did the BRICS in the 2000s. Their growth rates will depend more on their domestic markets and on exports to other emerging markets," concludes Julien Marcilly.

Despite a less buoyant environment, the "new emerging" countries have advantages over the BRICS of 2001. Their inflation rates are around 2.8 points lower than those the BRIC countries experienced, and their level of public debt is around 40% of GDP compared to 54% for the BRICS at the time.

 

[BDforever]

Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, the Philippines and Sri Lanka: strong potential confirmed by a sound business environment
Coface identifies only 10 "new emerging" countries which meet all the criteria. However, these countries are not the same in terms of their business environments - the weaknesses of which can stifle growth. This leads Coface to distinguish two groups in the "new emerging" countries:

• Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, the Philippines and Sri Lanka have a sound business climate (A4 or B), similar to that of the BRIC countries today.

• Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Ethiopiahave very difficult (C) or extremely difficult (D) business environments which could hamper their growth prospects.

Coface identifies 10 emerging countries hot on the heels of the BRICS / News / News & Publications - Coface

COFACE IDENTIFIES 10 EMERGING COUNTRIES HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE BRICS

After 10 years of frenetic growth, the BRICS are slowing down sharply: for 2014, Coface forecasts growth of on average 3.2 points lower than the average growth these countries registered over the previous decade. At the same time, other emerging countries are accelerating their development. Among them, a ‘top 10’ emerges with good production prospects and sufficient financing to support expansion.





In addition to accelerating high growth, financing is needed to boost investment
Despite a consumer trend that remains favourable, the BRICS are experiencing a growth downturn due to an adjustment in supply and a marked slow-down in investment. Local businesses no longer have sufficient production capacity to meet continued strong demand.

To identify the promising countries that the BRICS are now giving way to, Coface identified several criteria, including two that are essential:

• Countries that have high growth which is accelerating, and whose economy is diversified and resilient to growth slowdowns ;
• Countries that have sufficient funding capacity to finance growth (a minimum level of savings needed to avoid excessive recourse to foreign savings), without the risk of creating a credit bubble or which do not yet have equity markets of a comparable size of those in OECD countries.

Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, the Philippines and Sri Lanka: strong potential confirmed by a sound business environment
Coface identifies only 10 "new emerging" countries which meet all the criteria. However, these countries are not the same in terms of their business environments - the weaknesses of which can stifle growth. This leads Coface to distinguish two groups in the "new emerging" countries:

• Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, the Philippines and Sri Lankahave a sound business climate (A4 or B), similar to that of the BRIC countries today.

• Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Ethiopiahave very difficult (C) or extremely difficult (D) business environments which could hamper their growth prospects.

"Naturally, it will be more difficult for the second group of countries, who could take longer to fully realise their growth potential. However, their business environment problems are relative: in 2001, the quality of governance in Brazil, China, India and Russia was comparable to that of Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Ethiopia today,"says Julien Marcilly, Head of country risk at Coface.



Growth of the "new emerging" countries will take a different path than for the BRICS
Some weaknesses compared to the BRICS in the 2000s persist nonetheless. Firstly, the 10 identified "new emerging" countries currently only represent 11% of the world’s population while the BRICS accounted for 43% of the population in 2001. Secondly, their GDP level is only 70% of that of the BRICS in 2001. Finally, the BRICS recorded on average a current account surplus while the “new emerging” countries run a deficit of around 6% of GDP.

"With growth in developed countries being structurally weaker today, the "new emerging" countries may benefit less from trade towards these countries than did the BRICS in the 2000s. Their growth rates will depend more on their domestic markets and on exports to other emerging markets," concludes Julien Marcilly.

Despite a less buoyant environment, the "new emerging" countries have advantages over the BRICS of 2001. Their inflation rates are around 2.8 points lower than those the BRIC countries experienced, and their level of public debt is around 40% of GDP compared to 54% for the BRICS at the time.

I put Sri lanka on top

 

[Gibbs]

Great to see growth prospects of Bangladesh..


BRICS are so last season. Here are 10 other emerging economies to watch | GlobalPost

David Trifunov

March 27, 2014 14:39

BRICS are so last season. Here are 10 other emerging economies to watch
French credit firm Coface put its weight behind Philippines, Peru, Indonesia and Sri Lanka as world's brightest new economies to watch.



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Forget about BRICS, it’s time to starting thinking PPICS.

According to French credit body Coface, the world’s emerging economies are to be found in nations like Peru, Philippines, Indonesia, Colombia and Sri Lanka.

“After 10 years of frenetic growth” the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa “are slowing down sharply,” said a report released by Coface on Tuesday.

The report said average economic growth in BRICS nations this year would be 3.2 percentage points less than the average in the last 10 years.

“At the same time, other emerging countries are accelerating their development,” Coface said.

The 10 nations to watch were chosen because they have good production prospects and the financing to support expansion.

While the PPICS are showing encouraging signs, the other nations cited in the report — Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia — have “very difficult or extremely difficult business environments which could hamper their growth prospects.”

That’s why they’ve been divided into two groups (and the second doesn’t seem to have a catchy nickname yet).

Here’s a closer look at the Coface 10 (with data figures from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund):




COLOMBIA
GDP: $369.6 billion (4.2 percent growth in 2014)

(Guillermo Legaria/AFP)

Colombia is not without its challenges. According to the World Bank, economic growth slowed to four percent in 2012 from 5.9 just a year earlier. Lower commodity prices and domestic farm protests have hampered expectations, but the government “remains committed to fiscal stability.” Unemployment dropped slightly last year to 9.9 percent.

“Colombia has maintained sound macroeconomic performance, weathering well the bouts of global economic and financial stress of recent years,” the IMF observed in a report released earlier in March.



INDONESIA
GDP: $878 billion (6.2 percent growth in 2012)

(Agung Parameswara/AFP)

Despite all the laurels from Coface, others suggest Southeast Asia’s largest economy faces significant challenges in 2014. Controversial mineral export bans, tighter central bank policies, tapering in the United States and a weaker Chinese economy have all affected Indonesia.

While many in Indonesia enjoying new standards of living, millions more are mired in poverty. The World Bank said almost half of all households in Indonesia live dangerously close to the poverty line of $22 per month. With that come health concerns such as infant and maternal mortality and access to sanitation.

Still, gross national income per capita climbed to $3,563 in 2012 from $2,200 a decade earlier. “Over the past decade, Indonesia has established a track record of strong economic performance and resiliency, underpinned by sound macroeconomic management and corporate and banking sector reforms,” the IMF said.



PERU
GDP: $203.8 billion (6.3 percent growth in 2012)

(Mario Tama/AFP)

The World Bank deems Peru one of the best performing economies in Latin America, and a partnership between Peru and the World Bank focused on improving equity through social services, infrastructure and competitiveness bodes well for the South American nation. While demand for Peru’s metals in China has lessened, economists still forecasted six percent growth this year.



PHILIPPINES
GDP: $250.2 billion (6.8 percent growth in 2012)

(Jay Directo/AFP)

Rosy projections for the Philippines are a mixed blessing. Recovery from last year’s devastating Typhoon Haiyan is expected to generate 6.5 percent economic growth this year, a slight increase from earlier estimates, the IMF said.

Growth in the Philippines has averaged about five percent in the last decade, according to the World Bank, a vast improvement over the previous decades. In 2010, the Philippines grew by 7.6 percent, the highest in 30 years.



SRI LANKA
GDP: $59.42 billion (6.4 percent growth in 2012)

(Lakruwan Wanniarachchi/AFP)

If there was ever an economic argument for peace, one might look to Sri Lanka. The island nation has gone through drastic change since the end of the brutal civil war in 2009, the World Bank noted. The economy grew about eight percent in 2011, and the resettlement of Sri Lankans who were displaced by the war is mostly complete.

Sri Lanka is now a middle-income country at peace. Its burgeoning tourism industry earned $1.4 billion in 2013, according to the the country's central bank.



BANGLADESH
GDP: $116.4 billion (6.2 percent growth in 2012)

(Munir Uz Zaman/AFP)

Bangladesh’s “impressive track record for growth and development,” the World Bank said, has led to it “aspiring to be a middle-income country by its 50th birthday.” The World Bank has provided more than $15 billion to Bangladesh since it separation from Pakistan in 1972.

Known for being one of the world’s few Muslim democracies and the eighth most populous nation on earth, Bangladesh has been wracked by political violence of late that threatens its tremendous economic and social gains.



ETHIOPIA
GDP: $41.61 billion (8.5 percent growth in 2012)

(Carl De Souza/AFP)

The World Bank said it wants to help “fight poverty and improve living standards in Ethiopia” by “promoting rapid economic growth and improving service delivery.”

It’s all in hopes of Ethiopia reaching middle income status by 2025, a big job since nearly 25 percent of Ethiopia’s 91 million people are unemployed, according to Agence France-Presse.



KENYA
GDP: $40.7 billion (4.6 percent growth in 2012)

(AFP)

By 2030, the Kenyan government “aims to accelerate sustainable growth, reduce inequality, and manage resource scarcity,” according to the World Bank. However, ambitious targets of 10 percent growth appear unlikely.

Recent turbulent events such as the prolonged terrorist attack inside a Kenyan mall, and national elections, had less impact on the economy than feared. The World Bank sees investment in infrastructure and domestic energy production as vital to helping pull more Kenyans out of poverty.



TANZANIA
GDP: $28.24 billion (6.9 percent growth in 2012)

(AFP)

A growing communications industry, steady population growth and strong domestic demand have all combined to fuel Tanzania over the last decade. Slightly lower food prices and better monetary policies are also a welcome development, although food is still more expensive in Tanzania than its neighbors, the World Bank said.



ZAMBIA
GDP: $20.68 billion (7.3 percent growth in 2012)

Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe during a visit to Zambia. (AFP)

Agriculture, construction, manufacturing, transport and finance combined to drive Zambia’s GDP to 7.3 percent in 2012 from 6.8 percent a year earlier, African Development Bank figures show. At the same time, inflation declined to 6.5 percent from 8.7. Still, the poverty rate remained around 60 percent.

 

[BDforever]

Great to see growth prospects of Bangladesh..

we are fked up because of politics, if we had sound political environment then we would grow more. BTW BD current GDP is $140+ billion on new base.

 

[Gibbs]

we are fked up because of politics, if we had sound political environment then we would grow more. BTW BD current GDP is $140+ billion on new base.

I guess the main concern for BD is how to balance external influence on domestic politics, Be it regional hegemonic powers or religious extremism.. The economy will do the needful by it self

 

[Skyline]

PPICS -

 

[Indos]

I hope I can benefit from Indonesian market this year. At the end it is really ALLAH helps and our personal strength and skills that will determine whether we can utilize the market from its fast growth. Some part of the market has already matured and full of big businesses that make start up company get difficulty to grow fast, but the other some is still not really utilized yet. So, high return is related to which market we should enter (+ other factors)

 

[Tshering22]

It is great to see more countries rising and developing, improving the standards of their own citizens. BRICS has moved to the next level of geopolitical and economic cooperation and under the new scenario after Crimean crisis, expect a polar change in the way BRICS stood up for each other.

Our goal is to encourage a multi-polar world where one superpower cannot dictate unreasonable conditions to smaller countries.