The Simple Reason Iran’s Economy Stopped Growing

[Homajon]

The Simple Reason Iran’s Economy Stopped Growing — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation

Iran's economy has been stagnant for the past decade. Throughout that period it has been sharply debated whether Iran’s economic misfortunes are caused by sanctions or internal factors.

www.bourseandbazaar.com

 

[_Nabil_]

Very poor analysis, many menbers here can give you a better one.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

I always enjoy Mr salehi's point of view especially his works related to education.

It's clear that sanctions harmed Iran's economy there is no doubt about it.but it forced Iran to enter big boys clubs like oil and gas industries.

Iran exported $15bn petrochemical products last year: Deputy min.

Tehran, IRNA - The Islamic Republic of Iran exported petrochemical products worth 15 billion dollars in the last Iranian calendar year (March 21, 2021 to March 20, 2022), an official said.

en.irna.ir

or

خبرگزاری فارس - رئیس‌جمهور: صنعت نفت ظرفیت زیادی برای توسعه مشاغل دانش‌بنیان دارد

رئیس‌جمهور با تاکید بر ضرورت دانش‌بنیان شدن و افزایش صادرات صنایع نفت، گاز، پالایش و پتروشیمی اظهار داشت: در کنار توسعه کیفی، توسعه کمی صنایع نفت، گاز، پالایش و پتروشیمی می‌تواند به ایجاد اشتغال دانش‌بنیان و ارتقای صادرات منتج شود.

www.farsnews.ir

ایت‌الله رئیسی با بیان اینکه جمهوری اسلامی ایران یکی از کشورهای مهم صادرکننده نفت، گاز و محصولات پتروشیمی در جهان است، تصریح کرد: متخصصان کشورمان در این حوزه حرف‌های زیادی برای گفتن دارند. اینکه ۷۰ درصد تجهیزات صنایع نفت، پتروشیمی و گاز مورد نیاز را متخصصان و شرکت‌های ایرانی در داخل کشور تولید می‌کنند، بسیار مایه خوشحالی و امیدوارکننده است، اما نباید به این نقطه اکتفا شود.

Iran became 70% self sufficient in building needs of oil and gas industries.

Very poor analysis, many members here can give you a better one.

I do agree that in terms of economic gains Iran lost from 2011-2022 but at the same time Iran built needs at home so it's not clear for me if we expand our point of view to 2011-2050 or 2099 how things will change.

 

[Homajon]

Very poor analysis, many menbers here can give you a better one.

This is the authors Website:

About me (Djavad Salehi-Isfahani)

I attended high school in Neishabour, Iran, and in 1967, after two months at Tehran University’s Faculty of Engineering, I left for UK to study economics, using a Central Bank of Iran scholar…

djavadsalehi.com

Write him what is wrong with his article. Make a screenshot of your message and post it in here.
After he answered you, make a screenshot of his answer and post it again in here.

 

[chinasun]

Iran's economy will grow by 3.1% in 2021. The future data will not be less than 3%.

 

[_Nabil_]

I always enjoy Mr salehi's point of view especially his works related to education.

It's clear that sanctions harmed Iran's economy there is no doubt about it.but it forced Iran to enter big boys clubs like oil and gas industries.

Iran exported $15bn petrochemical products last year: Deputy min.

Tehran, IRNA - The Islamic Republic of Iran exported petrochemical products worth 15 billion dollars in the last Iranian calendar year (March 21, 2021 to March 20, 2022), an official said.

en.irna.ir

or

خبرگزاری فارس - رئیس‌جمهور: صنعت نفت ظرفیت زیادی برای توسعه مشاغل دانش‌بنیان دارد

رئیس‌جمهور با تاکید بر ضرورت دانش‌بنیان شدن و افزایش صادرات صنایع نفت، گاز، پالایش و پتروشیمی اظهار داشت: در کنار توسعه کیفی، توسعه کمی صنایع نفت، گاز، پالایش و پتروشیمی می‌تواند به ایجاد اشتغال دانش‌بنیان و ارتقای صادرات منتج شود.

www.farsnews.ir

ایت‌الله رئیسی با بیان اینکه جمهوری اسلامی ایران یکی از کشورهای مهم صادرکننده نفت، گاز و محصولات پتروشیمی در جهان است، تصریح کرد: متخصصان کشورمان در این حوزه حرف‌های زیادی برای گفتن دارند. اینکه ۷۰ درصد تجهیزات صنایع نفت، پتروشیمی و گاز مورد نیاز را متخصصان و شرکت‌های ایرانی در داخل کشور تولید می‌کنند، بسیار مایه خوشحالی و امیدوارکننده است، اما نباید به این نقطه اکتفا شود.

Iran became 70% self sufficient in building needs of oil and gas industries.


I do agree that in terms of economic gains Iran lost from 2011-2022 but at the same time Iran built needs at home so it's not clear for me if we expand our point of view to 2011-2050 or 2099 how things will change.

This is the authors Website:

About me (Djavad Salehi-Isfahani)

I attended high school in Neishabour, Iran, and in 1967, after two months at Tehran University’s Faculty of Engineering, I left for UK to study economics, using a Central Bank of Iran scholar…

djavadsalehi.com

Write him what is wrong with his article. Make a screenshot of your message and post it in here.
After he answered you, make a screenshot of his answer and post it again in here.

The content is poor and the form is amateurish. Looks like a journalist article not an academic one.

Not stating he's right or wrong .

 

[Homajon]

The content is poor and the form is amateurish. Looks like a journalist article not an academic one.

Not stating he's right or wrong .

OK, now contact him, tell him why his content is poor, tell him all the things he is missing, make a screenshot of it, post it here.
After he answered, make a screenshot, post it here.

 

[mohsen]

The content is poor and the form is amateurish. Looks like a journalist article not an academic one.

Not stating he's right or wrong .

Yes, very amateurish.

His article can be wrapped in these two lines:
Why did Iran? In 2016 and 2017—the two years when the JCPOA was briefly in effect—Iran’s GDP increased by 20 percent. Did corruption and mismanagement suddenly cease then?

So by the same logic I can say, why did Iran's GDP growth turned from -6.8 in 2019 to 3.7 in 2020? did sanctions vanish?

 

[Sineva]

I always enjoy Mr salehi's point of view especially his works related to education.

It's clear that sanctions harmed Iran's economy there is no doubt about it.but it forced Iran to enter big boys clubs like oil and gas industries.

Iran exported $15bn petrochemical products last year: Deputy min.

Tehran, IRNA - The Islamic Republic of Iran exported petrochemical products worth 15 billion dollars in the last Iranian calendar year (March 21, 2021 to March 20, 2022), an official said.

en.irna.ir

or

خبرگزاری فارس - رئیس‌جمهور: صنعت نفت ظرفیت زیادی برای توسعه مشاغل دانش‌بنیان دارد

رئیس‌جمهور با تاکید بر ضرورت دانش‌بنیان شدن و افزایش صادرات صنایع نفت، گاز، پالایش و پتروشیمی اظهار داشت: در کنار توسعه کیفی، توسعه کمی صنایع نفت، گاز، پالایش و پتروشیمی می‌تواند به ایجاد اشتغال دانش‌بنیان و ارتقای صادرات منتج شود.

www.farsnews.ir

ایت‌الله رئیسی با بیان اینکه جمهوری اسلامی ایران یکی از کشورهای مهم صادرکننده نفت، گاز و محصولات پتروشیمی در جهان است، تصریح کرد: متخصصان کشورمان در این حوزه حرف‌های زیادی برای گفتن دارند. اینکه ۷۰ درصد تجهیزات صنایع نفت، پتروشیمی و گاز مورد نیاز را متخصصان و شرکت‌های ایرانی در داخل کشور تولید می‌کنند، بسیار مایه خوشحالی و امیدوارکننده است، اما نباید به این نقطه اکتفا شود.

Iran became 70% self sufficient in building needs of oil and gas industries.


I do agree that in terms of economic gains Iran lost from 2011-2022 but at the same time Iran built needs at home so it's not clear for me if we expand our point of view to 2011-2050 or 2099 how things will change.

There was also rouhanis glaring failure to anticipate just this sort of very likely outcome,and to have back-up plans in place to attempt to deal with it,never mind his failure to put in place any iranian verification measures to ensure the west abided by the terms of the deal.His failures to do these things verges on gross incompetence.
Ultimately its now very clear that the jcpoa was never going to deliver economically what iran expected,so the question then becomes: Was the jcpoa worth the price,and is it worth returning to?

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

• Before 2011, 30 percent of Iranians donated their yarane(~35-45$) to the poor.
• After 2022 more than 90 percent of Iran's population want to get their yarane (~ 15$)
• During mid 2010 population growth rate reached 1.3 percent while new generations of Iranians became adult (dahe 60-70-80 ).

 

[TheImmortal]

Iran's economy will grow by 3.1% in 2021. The future data will not be less than 3%.

A bit Irrelevant of a growth rate when inflation is 40%

Imagine I said you make $1000 a year. Your wage is projected to grow 3% next year—$1030. However next year, $1000 is actually worth $600. And you would need the equivalent of $1400 today to be breakeven next year.

Thus did your wage actually go up? No...technically it went down.

 

[Raghfarm007]

GDP growth takes into account inflation.... the problem comes when the inflation figures are understated, and GDP calculations are done with the understated figures.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

.

The Political Economy of Energy Subsidy Reform in Iran ​

@_Nabil_ This may be interesting for you.

 

[TheImmortal]

GDP growth takes into account inflation.... the problem comes when the inflation figures are understated, and GDP calculations are done with the understated figures.

Depends which GDP you are using.

Also Iran’s GDP number is all over the place because some use the government rate of 4,500 toman while others use market rate of 27,000.

Calculating Iran’s GDP right now is very difficult with inflation/multiple exchange rates/etc.

 

[Raghfarm007]

GDP in all countries is total BS.
If any western country Mark to Market their GDPs, they will all be bankrupt.