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The Shadow Of Radicalism In Central Asia Analysis
Extremist movements have been constantly subject to threat scenarios since 1990s. The roots of this situation often presented as a fear factor by states of the region, Russia and the West date back to old times.
By Gulay Mutlu
The historical development of radicalism in Central Asia being disputable, the rise of Islamic movements after the dissolution of URSS is quite obvious. The activities of several groups including Hizb-ut Tahrir and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in political and social fields prove this increase of influence. This matter also occupies the agenda of international actors especially since the 9/11 attacks. Today the concerns of Russia and the USA are based on the rise of radicalism in the region and the imperilment of international security and stability. Accordingly, the fact that whether or not Central Asia will surrender to radicalism is being subject to intense debates.
A short historical view
Sunni-Hanafism, the traditionally dominant Islamic doctrine in Central Asia, and particularly Sufism has a role that cannot be underestimated in terms of regional history. On the other hand, Salafism, a doctrine that disregards Islamic jurisprudence, also continues its existence in Central Asia and Caucasus, although it did not play a dominant role by this time.
However, it would not be wrong to assert that the destiny of this geography that hosted important Islamic intellectuals throughout history has abruptly changed under Soviet rule. Yet, the gap resulting from the denied access to resources and thus the spreading of false information about Islam led to the distortion of the doctrines during the Soviet period. The deterioration in essential doctrines of the religion became even more pronounced when states could not fill in this gap in accordance with the publics demands. As a result, nationalist movements dominated by Islam took advantage of this gap to become more effective. In the early years these approaches non-disguised in political character aimed at reintroducing the Islamic doctrine. For this reason, the number of schools offering religious education substantially increased in the region. The social and political reflection of this situation was not delayed. The Islamic wing of the opposition began to make itself heard against the authoritarian administrations formed after the fall of socialism. On the other hand, laic discourses constituted the other wing of the opposition.
The problem of authoritarian regimes
The situation in Central Asia can be interpreted as some sort of secret war between authoritarian regimes and dissenting Islamic organisations. The Civil War of Tajikistan that started in 1992 ended in 1997 with the intervention of a coalition also including Islamic forces. This situation has caused concerns in Uzbekistan and the Uzbek regime found the solution in closing all independent opposition parties and Islamic parties in the country. Heavy penalties were imposed on some of the leaders and members of these parties. Others fled the country to continue their activities in Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. In this period, Talibans takeover of power in Afghanistan strengthened the threat perception towards Islamic movements in the region. The Uzbek regimes constant prominence and desire to bring under control the situation throughout the process drove the small scale Islamic groups to come together in order to survive. As a result, the IMU took the stage. Uzbekistan regime pursuing policies aimed at destroying the IMU inside the country dealt a heavy blow to the organization with the support of the United States. The US a war against Al-Qaida after 9/11 has also organized attacks against the members of the IMU located in Afghanistan. The attacks of the US against Afghanistan weakened the IMU in the country, though also paved the way for the Kerimov regime in Uzbekistan to follow policies disregarding human rights.
On the other hand, Hizb-ut Tahrir has obtained the wide support of the public in the region (most particularly in Uzbekistan) after 9/11. Hizb-ut Tahrir came out with the discourse of peaceful jihad and stood against armed conflict. The goal of the IMU was to bring down the regime through armed conflict in order to found an Islamic state, whereas Hizb-ut Tahrir aimed at uniting all Muslims on earth.
In this process, restrictions going beyond the objective of preventing radical movements and reflecting to almost the whole social life disturbed an important part of the society. On the other hand, the threat perception based on radicalism did not remain limited to Uzbekistan. Similar movements worried present administrations in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan and a common agreement intended to struggle against these groups activities was signed between the three countries in question.
A societal approach
As a result of policies followed by authoritarian regimes the public not only endures socio-economic difficulties but also lacks a channel to reflect their situation outside. This situation leads to a political vicious circle in the region. The public, which cannot express its systemic disturbance through democratic channels, turns towards the opposition groups known to be rather Islamic.
However, it is also a reality that no intimacy is built between these groups and the public by this time. Therefore, it is not likely that radical movements will grow and bring the region under their control in this phase. For the same reason, experts of the region do not expect for an Arab Spring style dynamism in Central Asia. For the approach of the Uzbek public towards the IMU or Hizb-ut Tahrir is by no means similar to the support received by the Muslim Brothers.
The importance of democratisation
It is possible to foresee that the regional security and stability will be jeopardized if these kind of radical movements become successful and especially if the USA withdraws from Afghanistan after 2014. In the current conjuncture, the fact that the public does not show interest to the mentioned groups does not mean the threat went or will go away. Due to these concerns, Uzbekistan and nearly all Central Asian countries seek to restrict religious activities in the name of struggle against terrorism. Nevertheless, these practices not only aim at repressing violently radical movements, but also all kinds of opposition movements. The fact that the USA does not raise its voice against the practices of Central Asian administrations can only be explained by its war against Islamic structures. Moreover, the prospect of Talibans access to power after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan not only worries the states in the region, but also the USA and Russia.
Yet, at this point, one should first ask himself how to better handle this issue. In this context, policies clearly separating Muslim masses from radical groups should be followed strictly. Furthermore, it is important to realise that authoritarian practices are provocative, thus complicate the solution of the problem. Within this framework, one should stress that democracy is not the source of the problem but is on the contrary important for the solution.
Finally, although a sudden democratisation movement is not possible, there is a need for steps in order to not delay the democratization process. Radicalism in Central Asia is actually not inevitable but preventable. Thus, the international community should encourage the states in the region to democratise and institutionalise; and focus on the essentials beneath instability and radicalism, which are repressive and undemocratic regimes, instead of radical groups.
The Shadow Of Radicalism In Central Asia - Analysis Eurasia Review
Extremist movements have been constantly subject to threat scenarios since 1990s. The roots of this situation often presented as a fear factor by states of the region, Russia and the West date back to old times.
By Gulay Mutlu
The historical development of radicalism in Central Asia being disputable, the rise of Islamic movements after the dissolution of URSS is quite obvious. The activities of several groups including Hizb-ut Tahrir and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in political and social fields prove this increase of influence. This matter also occupies the agenda of international actors especially since the 9/11 attacks. Today the concerns of Russia and the USA are based on the rise of radicalism in the region and the imperilment of international security and stability. Accordingly, the fact that whether or not Central Asia will surrender to radicalism is being subject to intense debates.
A short historical view
Sunni-Hanafism, the traditionally dominant Islamic doctrine in Central Asia, and particularly Sufism has a role that cannot be underestimated in terms of regional history. On the other hand, Salafism, a doctrine that disregards Islamic jurisprudence, also continues its existence in Central Asia and Caucasus, although it did not play a dominant role by this time.
However, it would not be wrong to assert that the destiny of this geography that hosted important Islamic intellectuals throughout history has abruptly changed under Soviet rule. Yet, the gap resulting from the denied access to resources and thus the spreading of false information about Islam led to the distortion of the doctrines during the Soviet period. The deterioration in essential doctrines of the religion became even more pronounced when states could not fill in this gap in accordance with the publics demands. As a result, nationalist movements dominated by Islam took advantage of this gap to become more effective. In the early years these approaches non-disguised in political character aimed at reintroducing the Islamic doctrine. For this reason, the number of schools offering religious education substantially increased in the region. The social and political reflection of this situation was not delayed. The Islamic wing of the opposition began to make itself heard against the authoritarian administrations formed after the fall of socialism. On the other hand, laic discourses constituted the other wing of the opposition.
The problem of authoritarian regimes
The situation in Central Asia can be interpreted as some sort of secret war between authoritarian regimes and dissenting Islamic organisations. The Civil War of Tajikistan that started in 1992 ended in 1997 with the intervention of a coalition also including Islamic forces. This situation has caused concerns in Uzbekistan and the Uzbek regime found the solution in closing all independent opposition parties and Islamic parties in the country. Heavy penalties were imposed on some of the leaders and members of these parties. Others fled the country to continue their activities in Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. In this period, Talibans takeover of power in Afghanistan strengthened the threat perception towards Islamic movements in the region. The Uzbek regimes constant prominence and desire to bring under control the situation throughout the process drove the small scale Islamic groups to come together in order to survive. As a result, the IMU took the stage. Uzbekistan regime pursuing policies aimed at destroying the IMU inside the country dealt a heavy blow to the organization with the support of the United States. The US a war against Al-Qaida after 9/11 has also organized attacks against the members of the IMU located in Afghanistan. The attacks of the US against Afghanistan weakened the IMU in the country, though also paved the way for the Kerimov regime in Uzbekistan to follow policies disregarding human rights.
On the other hand, Hizb-ut Tahrir has obtained the wide support of the public in the region (most particularly in Uzbekistan) after 9/11. Hizb-ut Tahrir came out with the discourse of peaceful jihad and stood against armed conflict. The goal of the IMU was to bring down the regime through armed conflict in order to found an Islamic state, whereas Hizb-ut Tahrir aimed at uniting all Muslims on earth.
In this process, restrictions going beyond the objective of preventing radical movements and reflecting to almost the whole social life disturbed an important part of the society. On the other hand, the threat perception based on radicalism did not remain limited to Uzbekistan. Similar movements worried present administrations in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan and a common agreement intended to struggle against these groups activities was signed between the three countries in question.
A societal approach
As a result of policies followed by authoritarian regimes the public not only endures socio-economic difficulties but also lacks a channel to reflect their situation outside. This situation leads to a political vicious circle in the region. The public, which cannot express its systemic disturbance through democratic channels, turns towards the opposition groups known to be rather Islamic.
However, it is also a reality that no intimacy is built between these groups and the public by this time. Therefore, it is not likely that radical movements will grow and bring the region under their control in this phase. For the same reason, experts of the region do not expect for an Arab Spring style dynamism in Central Asia. For the approach of the Uzbek public towards the IMU or Hizb-ut Tahrir is by no means similar to the support received by the Muslim Brothers.
The importance of democratisation
It is possible to foresee that the regional security and stability will be jeopardized if these kind of radical movements become successful and especially if the USA withdraws from Afghanistan after 2014. In the current conjuncture, the fact that the public does not show interest to the mentioned groups does not mean the threat went or will go away. Due to these concerns, Uzbekistan and nearly all Central Asian countries seek to restrict religious activities in the name of struggle against terrorism. Nevertheless, these practices not only aim at repressing violently radical movements, but also all kinds of opposition movements. The fact that the USA does not raise its voice against the practices of Central Asian administrations can only be explained by its war against Islamic structures. Moreover, the prospect of Talibans access to power after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan not only worries the states in the region, but also the USA and Russia.
Yet, at this point, one should first ask himself how to better handle this issue. In this context, policies clearly separating Muslim masses from radical groups should be followed strictly. Furthermore, it is important to realise that authoritarian practices are provocative, thus complicate the solution of the problem. Within this framework, one should stress that democracy is not the source of the problem but is on the contrary important for the solution.
Finally, although a sudden democratisation movement is not possible, there is a need for steps in order to not delay the democratization process. Radicalism in Central Asia is actually not inevitable but preventable. Thus, the international community should encourage the states in the region to democratise and institutionalise; and focus on the essentials beneath instability and radicalism, which are repressive and undemocratic regimes, instead of radical groups.
The Shadow Of Radicalism In Central Asia - Analysis Eurasia Review
