HongWu
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The Second Indo-Chinese War (2013-2015)
Cause of the War
The Indian military at the time of the Second Indo-Chinese War (starting sometime between 2013 and 2015) was a powerful force dominating South Asia. It was definitely not 1962, when India went to war against China without due preparation. Since 1962, India fought several border skirmishes with Pakistan and eventually split it in the 1971 war. In 1987, Indian troops even faced off against the PLA at Sumdorong Chu Valley and eventually occupied Southern Tibet and turned it into the state of Arunachal Pradesh.
Since the early 2000’s, India’s economic growth has been spectacular, at least on paper. The economic growth created a sizable middle-class and upper-class Indians in the cities while poverty and malnutrition still existed in the countryside. Rampant inflation and other economic dislocation led to discontent from the urban poor. As India grew richer as a whole, Naxalites, Kashmiris and other rebellious factions grew more and more powerful.
As a result, New Delhi was forced to adopt a more and more aggressive foreign policy to keep the country united and distract from domestic problems. New Delhi strategists believed India’s path is to mimic the British Empire and project power as a conqueror. By 2010, India had outclassed Pakistan economically and regarded Pakistan only as source of terrorism, not a conventional war threat. India’s most powerful neighbor was China and New Delhi could not feel strategically secure until an independent Tibet is created as a buffer zone. This motivation was strengthened by India’s desire for redemption for its 1962 defeat and deep-rooted colonial racism against China. India also needed Tibet's water resources because India's rapidly increasing population had outgrown its territory so expansion was required.
Prior to 2000, India was shunned by the West and could only buy second-class, faulty weapons from Russia. After 2000, India started to acquire first-class weapons from Russia like the T-90, Su-30MKI and from Israel like the Phalcon AWACS and Green Pine radar. By 2010, even the US was offering India first-class weapons like the new M777 light howitzer, C-17, C-130 transport and Apache combat helicopter. Between 1995 and 2010, the India military had gone from a large but low quality Soviet-armed force to a more professional force with an eclectic mix of first-class weaponry from both East and West.
Strategic competition between US and China for primacy in East Asia was the reason why arming India became US policy. The US wanted to enlist India to help contain China. However, the US also faced the problem that it needed Pakistan too. This problem dogged the US until it finally reached a solution in 2010 -- it would sell weapons to India to use against China in the Himalayan border regions, but it would discourage India from using them against Pakistan.
The US does not want to see India conquering Pakistan-administered Kashmir, as that might make India too powerful to handle and eventually Indian Navy might even start affecting US naval primacy in the Indian Ocean. The US also does not want to see India continue to improve its nuclear and missile technology so that one day it can build ICBM that can reach New York. But selling artillery, helicopters, transports and fighter jets (like Super Hornet and F-16E/F offered for MMRCA competition) to fight China in a Himalayan war is okay.
Indo-Chinese relations plummeted in 2009 when PM Singh first decided to side with US to contain China and eventually carve out an independent Tibet. Since then, relations have been hostile, cold and confrontational. Sometime between 2013 and 2015, the newest US weapons were delivered to the Indian military. Not long after, the war began.
Deployment of Forces
Since the late 2000’s, India has been raising and deploying more and more elite mountain divisions toward both the Eastern Sector and Western Sector of the disputed boundary with China. India has been supplying them with airstrips in the forward areas like Tawang and Ladakh. Indian doctrine is to strike deep into Tibet with air-launched Brahmos, cut off Chinese defenders from supplies and overrun them. Meanwhile, India will encourage ethnic Tibetans to rebel against Beijing and sabotage PLA supplies.
By the start of the war, China had largely completed its infrastructure construction in Tibet. It has a railroad from Qinghai to Tibet and another one from Chengdu to Lhasa. China built civilian airports and military air bases in Tibet close to the Indian border. Highways tunneled through mountains provide access to the disputed Eastern Sector. Meanwhile, China opened a railroad along the Karakorum Highway through Pakistan-administered Kashmir linking Kashgar, Xinjiang with Islamabad and opened a railroad from Tibet to Kathmandu.
Major Chinese Weapons in the Theater
PLZ-04 artillery
Z-10A combat helicopter
HQ-9 SAM
CJ-10 cruise missile
J-10B air superiority fighter
J-11BS strike fighter
KJ-2000 AWACS
Y-8 EW aircraft
Phase I: The Indian Offensive
Ground forces of the two countries had already been maneuvering and watching each other when the air war began. So, China was prepared when India began its attack on the Qinghai-Tibet railway and the Chengdu-Lhasa railway. The KJ-2000 spotted the incoming squadrons of MKI and MMRCA soon after taking off from forward bases.
MKI was at a serious disadvantage to J-11BS. MKI had late-80’s Soviet avionics compared to J-11BS’s modern suite. MKI was a heavy Russian-manufactured beast while J-11BS was much lighter because of China’s composite materials technology. Also, India could not maintain foreign equipment very well or repair because spare parts usually came from Russia. Indian license-made parts were very poor in quality. As a result, some of the force could not fly and defects affected the entire MKI force. Chinese AA missiles such as PL-10 were also a generation ahead of the R-73 and R-73 on the MKI.
The J-10B also had an advantage over India’s MMCRA. The Eurofighter and Rafale were too expensive for India to buy in any reasonable quantity so India chose another. But none of the other aircraft had an upper hand over the J-10B. The J-10B has stealth features like DSI-intakes and extensive composites. It uses the FWS10A -- a 140 kN engine in the same thrust class as the Russian 117S. J-10B carries an AESA radar, electronic warfare suite and advanced AA missiles. As an air superiority fighter, it is a true equal to the Eurofighter and Rafale.
China had the numbers advantage. Where India buys, China makes indigenously at a fraction of the price. For China, a J-10B costs only ~$30 million, far less than what India would pay for a Mig-35! Where India can only induct 25 or 50 aircraft per year, Chinese war factories can crank out more than 100 per year. Just in the theater alone, China had more than 300 4th generation fighters (J-10B and J-11BS) to India’s 200 or so flyable MKI and MMRCA.
Finally, PLAAF could engage in information-centric warfare. J-10B and J-11BS work together with HQ-9 SAM and KJ-2000 as force-multiplier. Indian weapons from Russia, US, France, UK, Israel, etc. simply cannot work as an integrated system. As a result, the pride of the Indian Air Force was lost in the first few days. However, they did inflict substantial losses on the PLAAF at a ratio of 4:1 (in favor of China). China lost ~1/6 of the fighters it brought to the theater.
The remaining IAF was a handful of poorly maintained, half-flyable Mirage, Mig-29 and Mig-21. Those were quickly destroyed on the ground by J-11BS with precision-guided munitions, as were forward Indian air strips and logistics depots.
Phase II: Mountain Warfare
With total control of the skies, China proceeded to attack Indian army bases. The handful of Indian S-300 batteries was destroyed using SEAD tactics and the Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft. It was made easier by the fact that China itself operates these systems. The handful of Green Pine radars was destroyed using terrain-hugging CJ-10 cruise missiles. The indigenous Akash did not perform very well and could not stop PLAAF from dropping precision-guided munitions over all Indian army bases in forward areas.
Without fighter support or supplies, the elite Indian mountain divisions could only mount a brave but desperate offensive. Z-10A grossly outnumbered the Apache that India purchased. Again, this is because China makes indigenously at a fraction of the price. The highly-advanced Z-10A is equivalent to the Eurocopter Tiger but has less firepower and less armor than the heavier Apache.
The Chinese also have the advantage of bringing SPAAG, CIWS and short-range SAM on the highways to defend against Apache and Mi-35. Indian-controlled side had no highways. Chinese infantry carry advanced QW-2 manpads (equivalent to Stinger) against helicopters. LCH never made it to the fight because India could not successfully turn the European-made Dhruv into a combat helicopter.
Indian army had the excellent M777 light howitzer, and this weapon definitely caused damage to PLA. But the Indians faced the disadvantage that they could not "shoot-and-scoot" like the PLZ-04 since M777 was towed and there was no highway. As a result, India's M777 attrited very fast. Yet India could not crank out replacements because it is purchased not indigenously made.
PLA's biggest advantage is that it could bring up far more numbers using railways. When the Indians began their attack, they thought they enjoyed a 3:1 advantage in numbers. But they did not expect that China had quietly brought up rapid-reaction forces from Lanzhou military region, Chengdu military region and Guangzhou military region. In the end, Indian army was outnumbered 5:1!
Despite being outnumbered and outgunned, Indian army fought bravely and inflicted 2:1 (in favor of China) casualties on PLA. The high quality of the Apache and M777 was a factor. Nonetheless, PLA commanded the upper hand. Waves of PLZ-04 artillery fire rained down on the Indian mountain divisions wherever they were, killing / wounding many of them. PLA infantry supported by Z-10A followed up and tore into Indian positions. The few that survived the vicious assault ran away and eventually froze to death. PLA suffered ~1/10 casualties.
Phase III: Chinese Counter-Offensive
Having destroyed the IAF and destroyed the mountain divisions in both Eastern and Western Sectors, China went on the offense to incapacitate India from any future military adventures.
PLA advanced into the “chicken-neck” area and overran Indian defenses, cutting off the entire northeast. PLA moved through Myanmar and attacked Indian army positions near the border. India demanded that Bangladesh let Indian army transit through to save the northeast, but Bangladesh refused, knowing that it would gain from an independent Republic of Assam, for example better water rights.
In the Western Sector, PLA attacked the Indian army on Siachen Glacier from both the Chinese side and the Pakistan side in a pincher maneuver. Finally, PLA moved into Jammu and Kashmir to roll back the remaining Indian army. Overjoyed at their liberation, Kashmiris rose up and set fire to GoI buildings in Srinagar. The pro-India faction in Kashmir fled the angry mob.
Within two weeks from the beginning of the war, Kashmir was totally lost and the Indian army in Assam was cut off from the rest of India. Then, China fired hundreds terrain-hugging CJ-10 cruise missile at power plants and electricity grids. Suddenly, all the major cities in India are without electricity and running water.
As India entered darkness, rebellion and communal violence broke out all over the country. Naxalites and Assam separatists launched direct assaults on pro-India police and paramilitary forces. Local governments and entire states declare independence from New Delhi. Some generals in the Indian Army tried to restore GoI authority by force but instead the whole country simply sank into civil war.
Important Lessons from the Second Indo-Chinese War
(1) China should not underestimate India. Yes, its indigenous weapons are not a cause for concern, but the weapons India imported in the 2008-2015 time frame is first-class! Sure they will be lesser in quantity and not as well integrated as indigenous Chinese weapons but they are nothing to scoff at.
(2) It is precisely because India has upgraded from second-class weapons to first-class weapons since 2008 that India has started styling itself a "superpower." India is fundamentally an expansionist state and quite dangerous.
(3) China is already reacting to India's hostile policy. Chinese defense minister recently said "Chinese military must be self-reliant." This is reminding India that its arms purchases will not help it defeat China and assert itself as the Asian superpower.
(4) The Second Indo-Chinese War will be decided by fighter aircraft, artillery and combat helicopters. This is why the US is selling these specific items to India! The weapons offered by the US are comparable to the best that China can field indigenously (J-10B, PLZ-04 and Z-10A), making China's industrial advantage over India not decisive.
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