illusion8
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THE RISE OF INDIA: THE SHIFTING GEOPOLITICS OF ASIA IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
World politics never remains static and as it moves on, new power configurations emerge either replacing the old ones or coexisting with them under some cobbled together working arrangement. The post cold war unipolar world order is now giving way to an era of multilateral global scheme of things where one country can not cast the dye in international arena. Asia is going to be the home to an important locus of this shifting global roller-coaster. There are voices which have termed the twenty-first century as “Asian Century” the way nineteenth century was dubbed as “European Century” and the twentieth century was termed as “American Century.” If Asia is rising to find a role more proportionate to its size as it is the largest continent, the key question is whether this would be a homogenous rise with all the countries complementing one another? The answer to this question is going to shape the twenty-first century Asia.
What Asia is to the world, India is to Asia. It has the second largest population in Asia next to China. After the programme of economic liberalization starting in 1990s India has progressed economically at a good clip. Economic influence translates into political clout and diplomatic influence and India is faring well on all these counts. The rise of India is the talk of the town in the discourse of international politics, but this rise would face tough challenges and obstacles owing to shifting geopolitics of Asia. Power contenders to India in Asia are going to pose a litmus test to country’s ability to steer clear of enmeshed rivalries with countries like China and Pakistan at political and strategic level and breakneck competition with Japan, South Korea and other Asian tigers in economic sphere. It has to be seen as to how do these countries pose a challenge in the way of India rising and how does India respond to these challenges. This tug of war between India and relatively more powerful and bigger countries of Asia would keep the geopolitics of the continent in flux. This power tussle would determine the rise of India and the orientation of the geopolitics of Asia in the present century.
India’s unresolved disputes with Pakistan cast an ominous shadow on country’s future as a regional power but more so as an influential global player. Pakistan can not emulate India in both roles: striving to be a regional hegemon and trying to obtain meaningful global profile, but it can spoil the Indian designs. The case in point is the UN reform where India is seeking a permanent berth at the Security Council. Pakistan has made it a point to oppose India tooth and nail and joined the block of countries termed as Coffee Club which are determined to scuttle any reform proposal which gives India such status. The conflicting interests in Afghanistan has emerged as another flash point between both nations as they are already trying hard to manage the fall-out of Kashmir conflict, Baluchistan issue and the threat of terrorism and militancy. In great part India’s rise would be helped or thwarted by its lingering tension with Pakistan no matter how well it scores on diplomatic front.
India and China are a classic example of clinically separating economics from politics. They too have festering wounds of unsettled border conflict and legacy of a regular conventional war, but over time they have been able to increase commerce and trade ties. The bilateral trade which was only 13 billion dollars in 2005 now stands at around 70 billion dollars which is projected to touch the magic figure of 100 billion dollar by 2015. here both countries stand to gain from each other not only in trade and commerce but the goodwill generated and mutual stakes would enable them to tackle head on their territorial conflict. Discussions are already under way to find some workable and viable solution to the dispute which keeps both countries at tenterhooks, and strong economic bond is going to provide a substructure to improve the ties at strategic and political level.
India is feeling elated and assertive to take the mantle of global player because it is now being backed by the US which is leading the world although its power and influence are being challenged thus gradually diminishing. Interestingly enough India is seen as one of the beneficiaries of the decline of the US as it aims to fill the power vacuum in league with other rising powers. The US sees India as a reliable partner in its regional and global scheme of things. It is here where interests of both countries coalesce as both need each other to go forward in face of shifting regional and global politics. The world stands at a pivot point as on one hand the US is in the state of gradual decline and other countries are moving upward to coexist with the US at best and replace it at worst. Asia is going to play more crucial role in this fluctuating global political matrix as it has few aspirants which want to stamp their presence on the globe after the US’s incapacitation or attenuation. In any case India is going to seek a visible and larger role first in Asia and then it would move a niche up to replicate this role far beyond the continent. India can desire such a regional and global role, but it would be heavily constrained and bitterly contested by the Asian power contenders, so India’s rise at the end of the day would be contingent on geopolitics of Asia which would remain fluid in foreseeable future.
THE RISE OF INDIA: THE SHIFTING GEOPOLITICS OF ASIA IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
World politics never remains static and as it moves on, new power configurations emerge either replacing the old ones or coexisting with them under some cobbled together working arrangement. The post cold war unipolar world order is now giving way to an era of multilateral global scheme of things where one country can not cast the dye in international arena. Asia is going to be the home to an important locus of this shifting global roller-coaster. There are voices which have termed the twenty-first century as “Asian Century” the way nineteenth century was dubbed as “European Century” and the twentieth century was termed as “American Century.” If Asia is rising to find a role more proportionate to its size as it is the largest continent, the key question is whether this would be a homogenous rise with all the countries complementing one another? The answer to this question is going to shape the twenty-first century Asia.
What Asia is to the world, India is to Asia. It has the second largest population in Asia next to China. After the programme of economic liberalization starting in 1990s India has progressed economically at a good clip. Economic influence translates into political clout and diplomatic influence and India is faring well on all these counts. The rise of India is the talk of the town in the discourse of international politics, but this rise would face tough challenges and obstacles owing to shifting geopolitics of Asia. Power contenders to India in Asia are going to pose a litmus test to country’s ability to steer clear of enmeshed rivalries with countries like China and Pakistan at political and strategic level and breakneck competition with Japan, South Korea and other Asian tigers in economic sphere. It has to be seen as to how do these countries pose a challenge in the way of India rising and how does India respond to these challenges. This tug of war between India and relatively more powerful and bigger countries of Asia would keep the geopolitics of the continent in flux. This power tussle would determine the rise of India and the orientation of the geopolitics of Asia in the present century.
India’s unresolved disputes with Pakistan cast an ominous shadow on country’s future as a regional power but more so as an influential global player. Pakistan can not emulate India in both roles: striving to be a regional hegemon and trying to obtain meaningful global profile, but it can spoil the Indian designs. The case in point is the UN reform where India is seeking a permanent berth at the Security Council. Pakistan has made it a point to oppose India tooth and nail and joined the block of countries termed as Coffee Club which are determined to scuttle any reform proposal which gives India such status. The conflicting interests in Afghanistan has emerged as another flash point between both nations as they are already trying hard to manage the fall-out of Kashmir conflict, Baluchistan issue and the threat of terrorism and militancy. In great part India’s rise would be helped or thwarted by its lingering tension with Pakistan no matter how well it scores on diplomatic front.
India and China are a classic example of clinically separating economics from politics. They too have festering wounds of unsettled border conflict and legacy of a regular conventional war, but over time they have been able to increase commerce and trade ties. The bilateral trade which was only 13 billion dollars in 2005 now stands at around 70 billion dollars which is projected to touch the magic figure of 100 billion dollar by 2015. here both countries stand to gain from each other not only in trade and commerce but the goodwill generated and mutual stakes would enable them to tackle head on their territorial conflict. Discussions are already under way to find some workable and viable solution to the dispute which keeps both countries at tenterhooks, and strong economic bond is going to provide a substructure to improve the ties at strategic and political level.
India is feeling elated and assertive to take the mantle of global player because it is now being backed by the US which is leading the world although its power and influence are being challenged thus gradually diminishing. Interestingly enough India is seen as one of the beneficiaries of the decline of the US as it aims to fill the power vacuum in league with other rising powers. The US sees India as a reliable partner in its regional and global scheme of things. It is here where interests of both countries coalesce as both need each other to go forward in face of shifting regional and global politics. The world stands at a pivot point as on one hand the US is in the state of gradual decline and other countries are moving upward to coexist with the US at best and replace it at worst. Asia is going to play more crucial role in this fluctuating global political matrix as it has few aspirants which want to stamp their presence on the globe after the US’s incapacitation or attenuation. In any case India is going to seek a visible and larger role first in Asia and then it would move a niche up to replicate this role far beyond the continent. India can desire such a regional and global role, but it would be heavily constrained and bitterly contested by the Asian power contenders, so India’s rise at the end of the day would be contingent on geopolitics of Asia which would remain fluid in foreseeable future.
THE RISE OF INDIA: THE SHIFTING GEOPOLITICS OF ASIA IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
