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The strategic dialogue
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Ikram Sehgal
In a few days Pakistan and the US will be engaged in a strategic dialogue having far-reaching consequence for the region and its peoples. Pakistans battlefield successes in Swat and South Waziristan changed the dynamics of the geopolitical equation from what it was less than a year ago. US vice-president Joseph Biden was the first as a US senator to recognise the rank injustice done to Pakistan over the years and the need to have a more pragmatic even-handed policy. Once President Obama took office and carried out a thorough review, US decision-makers, including Hillary Clinton, Gen James Jones, Admiral Mike Mullen and Gen Petraeusjoined by the battlefield commander in Afghanistan, Gen Stanley McCrystalare now unanimous in recognising Pakistans crucial role as the centre of gravity to resolve the biggest US headache at present, Afghanistan.
George W Bushs closest advisors, led by Condoleeza Rice, were heavily weighted in favour of India at the expense of Pakistan, and that too without geopolitical logic. Unfortunately, Pakistans military dictators have historically sold Pakistan short at the negotiating table to ensure their own survival, despite the fact that they were always in a position to drive a hard bargain. That selfish failure undercut Pakistans core national interests.
Gen Patraeus put it best the other day, that there must be recognition that each country has to go with its own national interest, and work towards convergence of interests, and narrowing the gaps. The US has its own core national interests, as has Pakistan. With a timeline limited to only up to another two years, fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan to a standstill and then exiting without leaving the vacuum will take some doing.
US abandonment of the region in the 90s resulted in the rise of the Taliban, and subsequently Al-Qaeda. Someone has to full the vacuum, maybe not as a US proxy, as is the common perception, but to ensure common national interests.
Afghanistan is a predator society and it will take decades of peace to change the existing mindset. For centuries Afghans have used their geographical crossroads location to live off the traders who passed through their territory. Necessarily Afghanistan is dependant on Pakistan for nearly everything, whether it comes from or through Pakistan. While everyone and his uncle blames Pakistan for hosting Taliban sanctuaries within its borders, they well know Pakistan has done all within its resources to curb this access but are mostly unable to stop two-way traffic across the Durand Line. We have suffered grievously for it, and continue to do so in more ways than one. At a recent security conference in Brussels there was stony silence when the rather unpalatable subject of the three-million-plus Afghan refugees in Pakistan today for decades was raised, as well as the astonishing fact that not one Afghan government official of note had ever visited them over the years to find out about their fate. (At least 1.6 million of these are in refugee camps, and the rest dispersed in Pakistani cities.) Eloquent about the $1.2 billion Indian aid given over the past decade, the mathematics about $2 per individual per day on food spent on the refugees by Pakistan and that it came to $2 billion per year (or $20 billion on food alone) over the past decade, was lost on the Afghans present (and others).
Indias economic interests in Afghanistan cannot be denied or ignored. Access through the land route through Pakistan must be subject to the Kashmir and water issue being satisfactorily settled. However, Indians cannot rival the interests of Pakistan, which is Afghanistans immediate neighbour. While the strategic depth theory is nonsense, Afghanistans dependence on Pakistans economy and agriculture are overwhelming facts of life to consider in the formulation of any policy to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan.
The Pakistani army has destroyed the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Swat and South Waziristan, and now lately their traditional route of infiltration into Pakistan through Bajaur. This has caused the dismantling of their logistics infrastructure and thecapture of many Taliban leaders, as their network has collapsed and sanctuaries exposed to interdiction. Despite his anti-Pakistan tirade, Pakistan has been supportive of Karzai in the Afghan presidential elections. During his recent visit to Pakistan we saw a born-against Karzaior is he a tremendous actor?
The truth is probably a bit of both. He seemed genuinely interested in a new relationship with Pakistan, but was loath to publicly abandon a long-standing friendship with India. This would be acceptable to Pakistan as long as India does not use Afghanistan as a platform to foment trouble in Balochistan, of which there is no doubt.
One must forgive Fareed Zakaria for his constant tirade against Pakistan, as an Indian Muslim he has to show himself to be more loyal than the king. His intellectual dishonesty in turning the once-respected Newsweek into an anti-Pakistan propaganda machine is appalling. If that was not enough, a recent article by Selig Harrison on Zardaris courage was nothing but paid advertisement against the Pakistani army. Shuja Nawaz of the Atlantic Council recently gave testimony before the US Foreign Relations Committee that while Pakistani intelligence agencies may have had links decades ago with organisations like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) because of Kashmir, to suggest the existence of a continuing connections is baselesseven ludicrous, given the battlefield casualties Pakistan is suffering. Shujas elder brother, the late Gen Asif Nawaz Janjua, would have been proud of him.
What a wonderful ambassador for Pakistan in the US this outstanding and credible intellectual would make! In contrast, the present incumbent is not worthy of comment. With such people representing Pakistan in a crucial country like the US, what does Pakistan expect in a strategic dialogue? Kayani should have had the good sense and propriety not to meet with Haqqani recently, Mr Haqqani is now going around claiming he got Shuja Pasha the years extension, and has ensured Kayanis as COAS. Hopefully Kayani wont take him along into the Pentagon discussions. God knows what else he is likely to claim!
The US is supporting Pakistan generously. Unfortunately it is not enough, neither economically and certainly not in military aid. In key areas of economy, agriculture, power sector, communications and telecommunications, health, etc we require massive injection of funds. Above all, we need to be brought in from the nuclear cold to overcome our dire energy deficiencies. Vital to US success in Afghanistan, Pakistan is getting only a fraction of what it should get, comparatively others get much more for doing much less. The strategic dialogue should be a joint national security strategy session for a comprehensive review of all relevant factors encompassing mutual interests in geo-politics and economics.
The strategic dialogue is crucial for the regions stability, as well as for peace and prosperity in Pakistan. The armed forces have changed the equation with their magnificent performance on the ground. However, this could not have been possible without the democratic dispensation in Pakistan today, however ugly it is. It is important that the system must stay. The US can stay on top of the game in Afghanistan, and the region, by betting heavily on the proven successful formula, the Pakistan Army and Pakistan.
The writer is a defence and political analyst. Email: isehgal@pathfinder9.com
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Ikram Sehgal
In a few days Pakistan and the US will be engaged in a strategic dialogue having far-reaching consequence for the region and its peoples. Pakistans battlefield successes in Swat and South Waziristan changed the dynamics of the geopolitical equation from what it was less than a year ago. US vice-president Joseph Biden was the first as a US senator to recognise the rank injustice done to Pakistan over the years and the need to have a more pragmatic even-handed policy. Once President Obama took office and carried out a thorough review, US decision-makers, including Hillary Clinton, Gen James Jones, Admiral Mike Mullen and Gen Petraeusjoined by the battlefield commander in Afghanistan, Gen Stanley McCrystalare now unanimous in recognising Pakistans crucial role as the centre of gravity to resolve the biggest US headache at present, Afghanistan.
George W Bushs closest advisors, led by Condoleeza Rice, were heavily weighted in favour of India at the expense of Pakistan, and that too without geopolitical logic. Unfortunately, Pakistans military dictators have historically sold Pakistan short at the negotiating table to ensure their own survival, despite the fact that they were always in a position to drive a hard bargain. That selfish failure undercut Pakistans core national interests.
Gen Patraeus put it best the other day, that there must be recognition that each country has to go with its own national interest, and work towards convergence of interests, and narrowing the gaps. The US has its own core national interests, as has Pakistan. With a timeline limited to only up to another two years, fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan to a standstill and then exiting without leaving the vacuum will take some doing.
US abandonment of the region in the 90s resulted in the rise of the Taliban, and subsequently Al-Qaeda. Someone has to full the vacuum, maybe not as a US proxy, as is the common perception, but to ensure common national interests.
Afghanistan is a predator society and it will take decades of peace to change the existing mindset. For centuries Afghans have used their geographical crossroads location to live off the traders who passed through their territory. Necessarily Afghanistan is dependant on Pakistan for nearly everything, whether it comes from or through Pakistan. While everyone and his uncle blames Pakistan for hosting Taliban sanctuaries within its borders, they well know Pakistan has done all within its resources to curb this access but are mostly unable to stop two-way traffic across the Durand Line. We have suffered grievously for it, and continue to do so in more ways than one. At a recent security conference in Brussels there was stony silence when the rather unpalatable subject of the three-million-plus Afghan refugees in Pakistan today for decades was raised, as well as the astonishing fact that not one Afghan government official of note had ever visited them over the years to find out about their fate. (At least 1.6 million of these are in refugee camps, and the rest dispersed in Pakistani cities.) Eloquent about the $1.2 billion Indian aid given over the past decade, the mathematics about $2 per individual per day on food spent on the refugees by Pakistan and that it came to $2 billion per year (or $20 billion on food alone) over the past decade, was lost on the Afghans present (and others).
Indias economic interests in Afghanistan cannot be denied or ignored. Access through the land route through Pakistan must be subject to the Kashmir and water issue being satisfactorily settled. However, Indians cannot rival the interests of Pakistan, which is Afghanistans immediate neighbour. While the strategic depth theory is nonsense, Afghanistans dependence on Pakistans economy and agriculture are overwhelming facts of life to consider in the formulation of any policy to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan.
The Pakistani army has destroyed the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Swat and South Waziristan, and now lately their traditional route of infiltration into Pakistan through Bajaur. This has caused the dismantling of their logistics infrastructure and thecapture of many Taliban leaders, as their network has collapsed and sanctuaries exposed to interdiction. Despite his anti-Pakistan tirade, Pakistan has been supportive of Karzai in the Afghan presidential elections. During his recent visit to Pakistan we saw a born-against Karzaior is he a tremendous actor?
The truth is probably a bit of both. He seemed genuinely interested in a new relationship with Pakistan, but was loath to publicly abandon a long-standing friendship with India. This would be acceptable to Pakistan as long as India does not use Afghanistan as a platform to foment trouble in Balochistan, of which there is no doubt.
One must forgive Fareed Zakaria for his constant tirade against Pakistan, as an Indian Muslim he has to show himself to be more loyal than the king. His intellectual dishonesty in turning the once-respected Newsweek into an anti-Pakistan propaganda machine is appalling. If that was not enough, a recent article by Selig Harrison on Zardaris courage was nothing but paid advertisement against the Pakistani army. Shuja Nawaz of the Atlantic Council recently gave testimony before the US Foreign Relations Committee that while Pakistani intelligence agencies may have had links decades ago with organisations like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) because of Kashmir, to suggest the existence of a continuing connections is baselesseven ludicrous, given the battlefield casualties Pakistan is suffering. Shujas elder brother, the late Gen Asif Nawaz Janjua, would have been proud of him.
What a wonderful ambassador for Pakistan in the US this outstanding and credible intellectual would make! In contrast, the present incumbent is not worthy of comment. With such people representing Pakistan in a crucial country like the US, what does Pakistan expect in a strategic dialogue? Kayani should have had the good sense and propriety not to meet with Haqqani recently, Mr Haqqani is now going around claiming he got Shuja Pasha the years extension, and has ensured Kayanis as COAS. Hopefully Kayani wont take him along into the Pentagon discussions. God knows what else he is likely to claim!
The US is supporting Pakistan generously. Unfortunately it is not enough, neither economically and certainly not in military aid. In key areas of economy, agriculture, power sector, communications and telecommunications, health, etc we require massive injection of funds. Above all, we need to be brought in from the nuclear cold to overcome our dire energy deficiencies. Vital to US success in Afghanistan, Pakistan is getting only a fraction of what it should get, comparatively others get much more for doing much less. The strategic dialogue should be a joint national security strategy session for a comprehensive review of all relevant factors encompassing mutual interests in geo-politics and economics.
The strategic dialogue is crucial for the regions stability, as well as for peace and prosperity in Pakistan. The armed forces have changed the equation with their magnificent performance on the ground. However, this could not have been possible without the democratic dispensation in Pakistan today, however ugly it is. It is important that the system must stay. The US can stay on top of the game in Afghanistan, and the region, by betting heavily on the proven successful formula, the Pakistan Army and Pakistan.
The writer is a defence and political analyst. Email: isehgal@pathfinder9.com