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The new generals in charge of China's guns

mosu

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It has become a political parlour game in Beijing to guess whether Hu Jintao will cling to his spot as the CMC chairman for two more years, like his predecessor, Jiang Zemin.

If he does stay on, it could lead to tensions with Mr Xi, and even rivalries within the top ranks.

Those in the know are also eager to find out which generals will nab the open spots on the CMC.

Early signs indicate the CMC's members have already been decided, though the final list of members has yet to be announced.

However, trying to guess what is going on behind the scenes in China's military handover is "like looking into a black box", complains Zhu Feng, deputy director at Peking University's School of International Studies.

No matter who makes the final cut, however, the new generation of CMC members will differ from the previous generation in terms of life and military experience, explains Bo Zhiyue, senior fellow at the National University of Singapore's East Asian Institute.

Unlike their predecessors, the new CMC members did not join the military as revolutionaries, but as professional soldiers.

"Their main goal is military effectiveness as opposed to being concerned with politics and ideology," says Prof Roy.
Vietnam experience

Due to the CMC's retirement age guidelines, all of the incoming members will probably have been born in the 1950s and probably joined the People's Liberation Army in the late 1960s, during China's tumultuous Cultural Revolution.
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China's Communist Party
Communist Party flag in Chengdu

Ruled China since 1949
83m members in 2011
77% of members are men
Farmers make up a third of membership
6.8m members work for the party and state agencies
Funded by government grant and membership dues
Private businessmen allowed to join since 2001
Seven of country's richest men attending congress

Why China matters
How China is ruled

However, the incoming generals were too young to have any direct experience in battle.

Only one probable member of the new CMC - General Zhang Youxia - served as a low-ranking soldier during China's 1979 war with Vietnam.

That lack of time in the trenches could make a big difference in the CMC's outlook.

"Some analysts believe the lack of fighting experience might breed overconfidence, which could leave the PRC more likely to take risky and confrontational actions that force opponents to fight or back down," explains Professor Roy.

Indeed, Bo Zhiyue says the new CMC will need to boost the Chinese military's modernisation drive - transforming it from a 2.3-million soldier standing army to sophisticated naval and air forces commanding advanced hardware, including at least one Chinese-made aircraft carrier, fighter jets and nuclear submarines.

Flashy technology aside, the CMC's generals must also embrace the demands of modern military diplomacy.

Only one of the expected incoming members - General Ma Xiaotian - has significant past experience of dealing with foreign military diplomacy, explains Bo Zhiyue.

All of the others will have to learn how to interact with their foreign counterparts if they hope to keep peace in the region.

"Ultimately, the army is prepared for war," he says. "However, if you can solve your conflicts with neighbours or potential rivals through diplomacy, that's even better."
 

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