RescueRanger
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As the US military footprint shrinks in Afghanistan, there are concerns going on many fronts, whilst there is huge uproar at apparent human rights abuses in the country, the immediate concerns for the average Afghan remains to be food, shelter, medicine and security.
As per reports from the U.S. Dept. of State, The US and it's allies have evacuated 105,000 people from the country. Meanwhile the United Nations claims that 500,000 IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) could be heading for the land borders Afghanistan shares with its neighbours.
Reports are coming in that already between 4,000 to 5,000 people commute between the various land crossings between Afghanistan and Pakistan every day and this number is expected to increase in the coming days and weeks:
Satellite imagery shows large crowds at the border crossing with Pakistan. Dated: 28.8.21
Afghanistan being a land-locked country relies heavily on GLOC (Ground Lines of Communication) for transport for trade, goods, medicine and other necessary items:
There are concerns worldwide for growing humanitarian crises in the country: Most Afghan's rely on agriculture as a source of food and financial security, winter is fast approaching, the country is facing a long drought and as per a recent report published by the WFP , 11 million Afghans are acutely and severely food insecure this is 1 in every 3 Afghan's goes hungry.
Most Afghan's use LPG for cooking and warmth, the price of which has gone from 46.00 Afghani in May 2021 to 100 Afghani 23 August 2021, the price for bottled water is said to be anywhere between 5-10 Afghani (used to be 3 Afghani) and bread is priced between 3-4 Afghani, the average monthly budget for lower-middle class Afghan's is $370 USD, this figure is much lower for those working the blue collar and agriculture sectors.
As the air evacuation corridor has now come to a close with the closure of the processing centre at the Baron Hotel at Hamid Karzai International Hotel, and the withdrawal of all but US forces, EU and UN bodies are advising those left behind and fearing for their safety to head for land borders:
Migration from Afghanistan to Pakistan and vice versa is nothing new, however increased controls must be placed on the border to consider preventing a large influx into Pakistan.
Pakistan is playing a vital role in assisting in getting vital humanitarian supplies into Afghanistan:
Among all this chaos and good will, groups of Coarse. Intimidate. Assassinate and RAW funded "NGOs", "human rights defenders" and "influencers" are looking towards the Panjshir valley as the next theatre in their forever war. This is a threat that should be on the radar of Pakistan and whilst the military capability of the resistance in Panjshir is severely limited, the outlook of future expansionism and overt/covert/LIC action within Pakistan and along the border should not be ignored.
As we have seen recently on the 30.08.2021, the Kabul based regime is not singing from the same hymn sheet as the Quetta and Karachi Shura especially in context of their promises to keep the TTP in check, it should be considered if the regime in Kabul have the will or ability to exercise any influence / control on the threat of TTP and their mentors.
Forces hostile to Pakistan have engaged in a very effective defamation campaign on social media which has gained significant traction under the hashtags: #SanctionPakistan / #Pakistan_terrorist_State this hash tag has been used by not only "egg" accounts and paid trolls but also retweeted and promoted by some very prominent personalities in the west who are openly hostile to the interest of Pakistan:
Analysis of the hash-tag #SanctionPakistan for Monday 30.08.21 shows that 8,187 tweets used the said hash-tag, 1% were original tweets, 99% were re-tweets. unsurprisingly, the top country tweeting and re-tweeting the hash-tag originates from India, in particular one bot account: @imalivedk
Other prominent accounts sharing or posting original tweets with the hash-tag are as follows:
@calxandr (Former Canadian Diplomat) | @HabibKhanT (Afghan Journalist | @KirtiAzaad (Indian Congress)
@DrAmbardar (indian influencer) | @sushantsareen (Indian Analyst) | @AsYouNotWish - Sonam Mahajan - Indian Influencer | @DaudJunbish - Afghan Humanrights Activist | @RoxanaBahar1 - Afghan Academic
@gulalai_momand - Afghan influencer living in the Netherlands | @f_forough (Fereshteh Forough - Afghan Influencer and Educationalist) | @CChristineFair - Academic (Indian Paid Troll) | @AmrullahSaleh2 - Disgraced former Afghan Official | @ryanmauro - NY based Trump backed Islamophobe - director of ClarionGroup (Google them)
These are the accounts I have been tracking for 72 hours to monitor their usage of the hash-tag's and their general pitch/narrative on twitter which has been overtly hostile towards the state and interests of Pakistan.
Going beyond the cyber-sphere for a moment, there are multiple games afoot to cause instability in Afghanistan which will no-doubt lead to increasingly hostile actions both along the border with Pakistan and inside Pakistan itself:
In addition to the above, there are countless ex US SOF who are linking in with Saleh to provide his group with financial support. Mention of a charity known as the Nazarene Foundation engaged in funding "relocation" and support for resistance fighters in Afghanistan.
This is part of a much larger geo-strategic threat to Pakistan and it's regional allies by a vengeful and humiliated west as it withdraws with a bloody nose, it is seeking vindication, for what it sees as a humiliating defeat in Afghanistan, not seen since the likes of Saigon.
Just yesterday the reported for the UK Newspaper the Telegraph broke the news that there are talks to set up a commando unit in the British Army on the lines of the Nepalese Ghurka's:
www.businessinsider.com
As the US withdraw, there are a large number of uncontrolled arms, ammunition and technical equipment which has been left abandoned by DoD contractors and the fleeing Afghan Army. The Pakistani government must consider the risk of a protracted and increasingly complex emerging threat as part of it's regional security and internal security posture.
We have witnessed the capability of the enemy to target Pakistan/China interests in Pakistan. For example near to Khost over 5,500 HE shells were abandoned by the Afghan military contractors as they left, this stockpile of military ammunition, unless secured will undoubtedly be used to target Pakistan/China interests in the region by hostile powers.
Among the arms and ammunition seized by the Taliban included AP rounds, anti-material rifles, solid steel core penetrators and HE shells. We have seen how the TTP and it's affiliated groups have used such small arms and repurposed military explosives and HME's to use against Pakistani armed forces to devastating effect:
Pakistan Punjab Police M113 APC targeted with AP rounds.
Atry Shells repurposed for use in a VBIED in Quetta.
NATO issued plate carrier converted into a PBIED vest.[Islamabad]
Immediate Concern:
Another serious concern for Pakistan at present is that we will be hosting up-to 4,000 foreign staff, and military personnel, all of whom will be residing in Islamabad, the journey from Islamabad Airport to the Diplomatic Enclave, Ramna 5 and Aga Khan road is 1 hour/45 mins, the movements of these personnel presents a target rich, high profile vulnerability. There are bottlenecks which extremist and nefarious elements can use to facilitate a devastating attack which will undoubtedly be designed to further harm Pakistani's internal and external posture and cause embarrassment on the international stage:
Recommendations:
1. Pakistan must immediately build a counter-narrative online, this should be supported by the diaspora and intellectuals of Pakistan to highlight the positive role of Pakistan and expose the hostile and nefarious role of enemy states and non-state actors mentored, funded and cradled by external supporters.
2. Pakistan has supported the WHO and WFP to create a air-bridge in Mazar-i-Sharif as we saw the first PIA flight made it's maiden trip earlier today
3. Pakistan must work with the UNHCR and EU nations to support the processing, re-settlement and relocation of Afghan refugees, there must be a clear and visible timeline along with financial recompense for the hosting of these large number of temporarily stateless people.
4. Pakistan must utilise it's close relationship with the regime in Kabul and it's regional friends such as China, Uzbekistan, Turkey and Tajikistan to ensure that the humanitarian terrain and physical security of GLOC's and ALOC's is maintained and assurances beyond "warm-words" from the Taliban leadership.
5. Pakistan can work to filling the void of highly skilled professionals due to recent human-capital flight from the country in Afghanistan to provide technical support to hydro/power and infrastructure projects in the country.
Ultimately, as the West withdraws and some hawks within the West seek to capitalise on the insecurity and instability in the country to play out their wet-dreams of the "forever war" as an act of the desperate old man, belching on his own hubris. Pakistan must safeguard it's own economic and security interests, as the saying goes "this world is built for hawks, not doves, if you are a dover, you will forever be plucked by the sweeping hawk".
Pakistan was blindsided in 2001, we must not allow this power vacuum and our complacency to repeat history again.
As per reports from the U.S. Dept. of State, The US and it's allies have evacuated 105,000 people from the country. Meanwhile the United Nations claims that 500,000 IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) could be heading for the land borders Afghanistan shares with its neighbours.
Reports are coming in that already between 4,000 to 5,000 people commute between the various land crossings between Afghanistan and Pakistan every day and this number is expected to increase in the coming days and weeks:
Satellite imagery shows large crowds at the border crossing with Pakistan. Dated: 28.8.21
Afghanistan being a land-locked country relies heavily on GLOC (Ground Lines of Communication) for transport for trade, goods, medicine and other necessary items:
There are concerns worldwide for growing humanitarian crises in the country: Most Afghan's rely on agriculture as a source of food and financial security, winter is fast approaching, the country is facing a long drought and as per a recent report published by the WFP , 11 million Afghans are acutely and severely food insecure this is 1 in every 3 Afghan's goes hungry.
Most Afghan's use LPG for cooking and warmth, the price of which has gone from 46.00 Afghani in May 2021 to 100 Afghani 23 August 2021, the price for bottled water is said to be anywhere between 5-10 Afghani (used to be 3 Afghani) and bread is priced between 3-4 Afghani, the average monthly budget for lower-middle class Afghan's is $370 USD, this figure is much lower for those working the blue collar and agriculture sectors.
As the air evacuation corridor has now come to a close with the closure of the processing centre at the Baron Hotel at Hamid Karzai International Hotel, and the withdrawal of all but US forces, EU and UN bodies are advising those left behind and fearing for their safety to head for land borders:
Migration from Afghanistan to Pakistan and vice versa is nothing new, however increased controls must be placed on the border to consider preventing a large influx into Pakistan.
Pakistan is playing a vital role in assisting in getting vital humanitarian supplies into Afghanistan:
Among all this chaos and good will, groups of Coarse. Intimidate. Assassinate and RAW funded "NGOs", "human rights defenders" and "influencers" are looking towards the Panjshir valley as the next theatre in their forever war. This is a threat that should be on the radar of Pakistan and whilst the military capability of the resistance in Panjshir is severely limited, the outlook of future expansionism and overt/covert/LIC action within Pakistan and along the border should not be ignored.
As we have seen recently on the 30.08.2021, the Kabul based regime is not singing from the same hymn sheet as the Quetta and Karachi Shura especially in context of their promises to keep the TTP in check, it should be considered if the regime in Kabul have the will or ability to exercise any influence / control on the threat of TTP and their mentors.
Forces hostile to Pakistan have engaged in a very effective defamation campaign on social media which has gained significant traction under the hashtags: #SanctionPakistan / #Pakistan_terrorist_State this hash tag has been used by not only "egg" accounts and paid trolls but also retweeted and promoted by some very prominent personalities in the west who are openly hostile to the interest of Pakistan:
Analysis of the hash-tag #SanctionPakistan for Monday 30.08.21 shows that 8,187 tweets used the said hash-tag, 1% were original tweets, 99% were re-tweets. unsurprisingly, the top country tweeting and re-tweeting the hash-tag originates from India, in particular one bot account: @imalivedk
Other prominent accounts sharing or posting original tweets with the hash-tag are as follows:
@calxandr (Former Canadian Diplomat) | @HabibKhanT (Afghan Journalist | @KirtiAzaad (Indian Congress)
@DrAmbardar (indian influencer) | @sushantsareen (Indian Analyst) | @AsYouNotWish - Sonam Mahajan - Indian Influencer | @DaudJunbish - Afghan Humanrights Activist | @RoxanaBahar1 - Afghan Academic
@gulalai_momand - Afghan influencer living in the Netherlands | @f_forough (Fereshteh Forough - Afghan Influencer and Educationalist) | @CChristineFair - Academic (Indian Paid Troll) | @AmrullahSaleh2 - Disgraced former Afghan Official | @ryanmauro - NY based Trump backed Islamophobe - director of ClarionGroup (Google them)
These are the accounts I have been tracking for 72 hours to monitor their usage of the hash-tag's and their general pitch/narrative on twitter which has been overtly hostile towards the state and interests of Pakistan.
Going beyond the cyber-sphere for a moment, there are multiple games afoot to cause instability in Afghanistan which will no-doubt lead to increasingly hostile actions both along the border with Pakistan and inside Pakistan itself:
In addition to the above, there are countless ex US SOF who are linking in with Saleh to provide his group with financial support. Mention of a charity known as the Nazarene Foundation engaged in funding "relocation" and support for resistance fighters in Afghanistan.
This is part of a much larger geo-strategic threat to Pakistan and it's regional allies by a vengeful and humiliated west as it withdraws with a bloody nose, it is seeking vindication, for what it sees as a humiliating defeat in Afghanistan, not seen since the likes of Saigon.
Just yesterday the reported for the UK Newspaper the Telegraph broke the news that there are talks to set up a commando unit in the British Army on the lines of the Nepalese Ghurka's:
The UK is considering incorporating Afghan special forces evacuated from Kabul into the British army
The Afghan special forces were trained by UK troops and are "very good by international standards," a former military head said.
www.businessinsider.com
As the US withdraw, there are a large number of uncontrolled arms, ammunition and technical equipment which has been left abandoned by DoD contractors and the fleeing Afghan Army. The Pakistani government must consider the risk of a protracted and increasingly complex emerging threat as part of it's regional security and internal security posture.
We have witnessed the capability of the enemy to target Pakistan/China interests in Pakistan. For example near to Khost over 5,500 HE shells were abandoned by the Afghan military contractors as they left, this stockpile of military ammunition, unless secured will undoubtedly be used to target Pakistan/China interests in the region by hostile powers.
Among the arms and ammunition seized by the Taliban included AP rounds, anti-material rifles, solid steel core penetrators and HE shells. We have seen how the TTP and it's affiliated groups have used such small arms and repurposed military explosives and HME's to use against Pakistani armed forces to devastating effect:
Pakistan Punjab Police M113 APC targeted with AP rounds.
Atry Shells repurposed for use in a VBIED in Quetta.
NATO issued plate carrier converted into a PBIED vest.[Islamabad]
Immediate Concern:
Another serious concern for Pakistan at present is that we will be hosting up-to 4,000 foreign staff, and military personnel, all of whom will be residing in Islamabad, the journey from Islamabad Airport to the Diplomatic Enclave, Ramna 5 and Aga Khan road is 1 hour/45 mins, the movements of these personnel presents a target rich, high profile vulnerability. There are bottlenecks which extremist and nefarious elements can use to facilitate a devastating attack which will undoubtedly be designed to further harm Pakistani's internal and external posture and cause embarrassment on the international stage:
Recommendations:
1. Pakistan must immediately build a counter-narrative online, this should be supported by the diaspora and intellectuals of Pakistan to highlight the positive role of Pakistan and expose the hostile and nefarious role of enemy states and non-state actors mentored, funded and cradled by external supporters.
2. Pakistan has supported the WHO and WFP to create a air-bridge in Mazar-i-Sharif as we saw the first PIA flight made it's maiden trip earlier today
3. Pakistan must work with the UNHCR and EU nations to support the processing, re-settlement and relocation of Afghan refugees, there must be a clear and visible timeline along with financial recompense for the hosting of these large number of temporarily stateless people.
4. Pakistan must utilise it's close relationship with the regime in Kabul and it's regional friends such as China, Uzbekistan, Turkey and Tajikistan to ensure that the humanitarian terrain and physical security of GLOC's and ALOC's is maintained and assurances beyond "warm-words" from the Taliban leadership.
5. Pakistan can work to filling the void of highly skilled professionals due to recent human-capital flight from the country in Afghanistan to provide technical support to hydro/power and infrastructure projects in the country.
Ultimately, as the West withdraws and some hawks within the West seek to capitalise on the insecurity and instability in the country to play out their wet-dreams of the "forever war" as an act of the desperate old man, belching on his own hubris. Pakistan must safeguard it's own economic and security interests, as the saying goes "this world is built for hawks, not doves, if you are a dover, you will forever be plucked by the sweeping hawk".
Pakistan was blindsided in 2001, we must not allow this power vacuum and our complacency to repeat history again.
