The great game comes to Bangladesh

[BanglaBhoot]

The visit of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Bangladesh on May 5 could be a great disappointment for many in the country if the agenda reflects the perspective of the article displayed below. Bangladeshis do not want to be part of a US-India axis against any third country in the region. This would mean subjugation of Bangladesh under Indian hegemony which would be utterly intolerable to our freedom loving people -

The great game comes to Bangladesh

May 3, 2012
M K Bhadrakumar, specially for RIR

The two-day weekend visit by Hillary Clinton to Bangladesh underscores an intensification of the United States’ regional policy in South Asia and it cannot but be seen as a related process to the ‘pivot’ to Asia in the American foreign and security policies. Clinton’s visit holds significance across several overlapping templates – US-Bangladesh bilateral ties, India-Bangladesh relations, regional security, energy security and the US’ strategies in South Asia as a whole.

The US state department announcement said that whilst in Dhaka, Clinton proposed to “review robust US-Bangladesh cooperation across the full range of political, economic, and security matters.” The statement gives a deceptive air of ‘routineness’ to the visit. But in actuality, the visit is a rare event – last visit of a US secretary of state was by George Schultz – and indeed Bangladeshi observers are intrigued why such a high-flyer personality like Clinton, who is about to lay down office and apparently contemplating quitting public life altogether, should bother to land in Dhaka in the twilight zone of her distinguished run as America’s top diplomat – and, that too, with hardly any prior notice.

Some imaginative Bangladeshi wits have scratched the bottom of the barrel and come up with the queer thesis that Clinton decided to come to express solidarity with Nobel Laureate Mohammad Yunus who used to head the micro-financing institution known as Grammen Bank and was summarily eased out from that position by the leadership in Dhaka.

In fact, to outside observers, it all but seemed that the US-Bangladeshi ties became a bit too unnecessarily testy when Dhaka chose to ignore the US pressure at the highest level to give an honorable exit to Yunus. Suffice to say, Dhaka wears a somewhat dazed look that Clinton is dropping by, albeit over a weekend.

Bangladesh is by no means smitten with ‘anti-Americanism’ and the elites have a healthy appreciation that a close partnership with the US can potentially unlock the door that leads to the country’s graduation as a middle-income country in a conceivable future. The trade with the US accounts for 40 percent of all of Bangladesh’s exports. And if Washington shows the generosity to do away with the tariff barrier on garments, Bangladesh’s exports will zoom. Market access is all the Dhaka needs, being a competitive performer. Then, of course, Bangladeshi elites know the scale of the US’s influence over the international financial institutions and Dhaka has the brainpower and the absorption capacity to utilize multilateral funding to accelerate its economic development. All that is needed is a helping word or two from Washington with the World Bank or the IMF.

However, it is not entirely correct to say that US has abruptly changed course and set its eyes on Dhaka. A momentum has been building up lately. The first-ever security talks between Bangladesh and the US were held in Dhaka on April 19 focusing on security challenges facing the two countries. The US press readouts on the talks said, “This inaugural Dialogue on Security Issues highlights the robust engagement between the United States and Bangladesh as well as out growing defence relationship.” They added that Washington expected the Security Dialogue to broaden and strengthen bilateral cooperation on a wide range of political-military issues, and enhance cooperation in peacekeeping, joint military exercises and exchanges, counterterrorism, and security cooperation. “The positive and substantial exchanges of the dialogue reflect the breadth, depth, and strength of the bilateral defense relationship, as well as our shared commitment to peace and prosperity in the region.”

The Security Dialogue was not a flash in the pan, either. There has been a steady stream of senior US officials to Dhaka, the last being the Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman in April. Andrew Shapiro, US assistant secretary in the bureau of political-military affairs, who led the American side at the Security Dialogue in Dhaka, later said:

“Indeed, over the past decade, the bilateral defence relationship… has become one of the most robust in South Asia. Bangladesh is a key player in maintaining security in the Bay of Bengal. They are an active partner in regional counterterrorism efforts… Our cooperation with Bangladesh is a prime example of how US security assistance can play a critically important role in our diplomatic engagement.

“Bangladesh is also working through a military modernization plan, which includes looking to partners for affordable defense systems... This modernization effort provides an opportunity for us to expand our security cooperation, especially through our Excess Defense Articles program, which makes U.S. equipment that is surplus to our requirements available to our partners… Additionally, we provide assistance to support Bangladesh’s peacekeeping efforts… And through our training initiatives and exchanges we are helping professionalize its national military forces… In short, our security assistance is playing a critically important role for… the national security of the United States.”

US-India axis

One curious feature of the US-Bangladesh exchanges is that almost all US officials are making it a point to come to Dhaka via New Delhi or to make their return journey to Washington via New Delhi. Evidently, it is not a mere matter of logistics. The pattern shows an appreciable degree of strategic coordination taking place between Washington and New Delhi in relation to Bangladesh. It could be even greater than the intensity and transparency of the US-India coordinated strategy toward Myanmar. The ‘robustness’ of the US-Bangladesh relations runs parallel to an unprecedented upward curve in the trajectory of the India-Bangladesh relationship, which has been lackluster in the recent decades.

Quite obviously, the US policies toward Myanmar and Bangladesh are inter-connected and, in turn, they emanate out of Washington’s ‘containment’ strategy toward China. Clinton’s visit to Dhaka follows her recent trip to Myanmar – and from Dhaka she is proceeding to India. The state secretary’s South Asian jaunt is also sandwiched between the meeting of the US-China strategic dialogue forum in Beijing this week and the forthcoming session of the US-India strategic dialogue in Washington next month. Clinton co-chairs both these forums.

Interestingly, there are reports that Washington is seeking a similar strategic dialogue forum also with Bangladesh. It is strongly hinted that during Clinton’s visit to Dhaka, a joint document may be finalized titled ‘Bangladesh-US Partnership Dialogue.’ A senior Bangladeshi foreign ministry official has been quoted as saying, “Both countries feel that there should be a structured umbrella forum under which the two countries will hold regular dialogue on a full range of bilateral issues like political, economic and security issues.”

Of course, the US regional policy gains by showcasing a robust relationship with a moderate Muslim majority country like Bangladesh. But from the US perspective, geopolitics and energy appear to be the compelling themes of Clinton’s visit. Simply put, Bangladesh’s strategic location enhances its importance for the US to try and bring Bangladesh into the ambit of the US-India axis, which has taken shape in the region. (Myanmar and Sri Lanka become two other similar ‘target’ countries for the coordinated US-Indian regional strategy.)

Unsurprisingly, India is content with taking a back seat as a junior partner (given the sensitivities of its small neighbors) and is letting the US take the lead role in advancing their regional strategy. It is, admittedly, an ambitious project, as it is predicated on a dramatic improvement in the climate of mutual trust among the countries of the region – and in their ties vis-à-vis India – and, more important, on their willingness to serve as surrogates in the US’ containment’ strategy toward China. Bangladesh or Sri Lanka, for instance, have dynamic cooperative relationships with China, which are beneficial for them in every way, including as a counterweight to the perceived Indian ‘hegemony’ in the region. Suffice to say, Clinton’s visit to Dhaka augurs the arrival of the great game in the Bay of Bengal, which has otherwise been lurking so far in and around the Malacca Strait.

However, for a superpower, what is geopolitics without business opportunities? To be sure, a stunning new development has been the resolution of the longstanding maritime dispute between Bangladesh and Myanmar following the verdict given by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea on March 14. The tribunal has awarded 111, 000 square kilometers of exclusive economic zone in the Bay of Bengal (roughly the same size as Bangladesh landmass), which gives it the sovereign right over all resources currently available there for exploitation and all resources that may be discovered in the territorial sea around St. Martin’s Island. Interestingly, it was the strong likelihood of newly accessible gas reserves in the Bay of Bengal that motivated Bangladesh and Myanmar to pursue a solution in the international court. There are estimates of various types of mineral deposits in the region as well, including cobalt, manganese, copper, nickel and sulfite.

Moreover, the tribunal’s award also strengthens Bangladesh’s case in its maritime dispute with India on the western side of the Bay of Bengal where India has been insisting on the principle of equidistance instead of equality in demarcating the maritime boundary. (A verdict by the international court is expected in 2014.)

Without doubt, a specific objective of Clinton’s visit is something that that Washington has been pressing for, namely, the conclusion of a Trade and Investment Cooperation Framework Agreement [TICFA]. After some tough negotiations, the document is almost ready for signature. There is compelling reason for Clinton to push for the signing of the TICFA and it could even be the leitmotif of the extraordinary move that Washington made by scheduling a state-secretary level visit to Dhaka at this juncture.

Plainly put, ConocoPhilips is currently exploring gas and oil reserves in two offshore blocks in the Bay of Bengal. With the settlement of Bangladesh’s maritime boundary with Myanmar, the US-based oil company proposes to secure rights for exploring another six blocks in the Bay of Bengal. Clinton is hastening to wrap up the mega energy deal ahead of any Chinese offer even as Bangladesh proposes to ‘re-block’ the Bay of Bengal in terms of the verdict by the international court.

However, it is too early to say that the US-India axis would succeed in blocking China out of the Bay of Bengal. The mystique of the great game is that it is a many-splendored thing. Countries like Bangladesh and Myanmar (or Sri Lanka and Maldives) are also aware of the strategic space that is available to them to safeguard their vital interests in the multi-polar world.

The great game comes to Bangladesh | Russia & India Report

 

[BanglaBhoot]

I had expected an avalanche of comments .......

 

[kalu_miah]

The article makes sense. What we need to do is educate our public about the complexity of the situation. India as usual is trying to fish in muddy water. We need to expose Indian role in Myanmar and its attempt to affect negatively Bangladesh-Myanmar relations. The maritime issue is one example. Another example is the Bangladesh-Myanmar road issue. We need much closer cooperation with Myanmar govt., politicians and people to understand what is going on there. I suspect that it is India that is instigating Myanmar govt. against Bangladesh, with fears of illegal migration, Islamophobia etc. so Myanmar govt. does not take initiative to start construction of this road. China is of course a good balancer for us against the Indian threat in this space. But a better option than China is the following arrangement, in my view:

- strategic alliance with US, Japan, Korea, Vietnam and other ASEAN nations without any role of India in our alliance with these countries
- we have to accept that India will be a close partner with above countries, but it should not have any intermediary role or say in our alliance with these nations
- the above countries involvement will ensure that India will be forced to stop its nefarious activities as it will be embarrassing if found out by its allies

China has few friends in the region. So as a friend and natural ally of China and by being included in this group, we can try to do damage control for China in the region. Ultimately if conflicts can be resolved peacefully in the region, the peace dividend will be better for all of our economies.

I would suggest BNP party members to consider putting these ideas to Khaleda Zia, that Bangladesh would support a ASEAN+ grouping, mainly in a strategic alliance with the US, but not in any strategic alliance with India. Trade and commerce is ok with India, however. Even transit and other issues can be resolved if India deals with us fairly. We can work with them, if they decide to stop interfering with our internal matters.

If the US ultimately decides to make a strategic alliance with India to contain China, that decision will force not just Bangladesh, but Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Cambodia (may be more countries in ASEAN) to stay out of this strategic alliance and may seek a strategic alliance with China instead.

We need to work with other China friendly countries in ASEAN to find out their positions and act collectively on this issue. So far the China friendly countries I see are Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Cambodia. There are two factors that affect Chinese support in the region. One is the presence of economically and financially influential diaspora ethnic Chinese or majority Chinese in case of Singapore, the second factor is Islam and Muslims who tend to side with the Chinese, because China has dealt with the Muslim world in a more even handed manner and does not seem to be easily swayed by Zionist or Indian Hindutva (Hindu Nationalist) campaign of Islamophobia.

As a potential member of a future ASEAN+ group, Bangladesh may become an important part of the Muslim bloc of about 400 million population in this mainly Buddhist+Muslim grouping of 1 billion people. So Buddhist-Muslim relations is very important for about a billion strong population of this region. Indian Brahmanists have been running a stealth campaign against Buddhism for 2000 years to wipe out Buddhism in India, by essentially co-opting Buddhist practices within syncretic Baishnava or Sikh practices. But the end result is that Buddhism was replaced with caste Hinduism all over India. The absence of Brahmins in South East Asia has allowed many of them to remain Buddhists. The spread of Muslim rule and Islam was of course another factor that affected Buddhism, but many former Buddhists accepted Islam to escape the pernicious clutch of Varna Hinduism. So Buddhists and Muslims will need to find a way to celebrate our common past and make sure that we do not fall victim to Brahmanist influence again, the center of which of course is India.

Since communism is on the wane in China, we need to support a return of Buddhism there and ensure freedom of religion for aspiring Christians, although for Historical Continuity, I would always recommend for people to retain their original faith or belief system, which happens to be a mixture of Buddhism,Taoism and Confucianism also known as Neo-confucianism.

I think Chinese behavior will change in the future, it will not remain as aggressive as it is now and will become much more rational in their approach. For India to grow up and become rational it will take generations, mainly because of its own majority belief system and their hostility to other belief systems. So eventually I can see a great East Asian economy comprising of China and ASEAN+ and it will be better for Bangladesh to be an integral part of this economy and play a constructive role to resolve conflicts peacefully using our creativity and friendship with other nations of the region.

Eventually, if we work for the unity of Humanity in our corner of the world, we will be able to reduce the negative influence from Brahmin supremacists who want to divide and rule and keep us and others (like Sri Lanka and Maldives) down as their underlings and slaves.

 

[PlanetSoldier]

My assumption was same. US and india are now friends, so india will not come on lime light , it's USA who'll deal everything for US-indo axis interest. india knows well that mass BD ppl have sentiment against them. If USA does the same thing, BD has very little scope to escape because of economic dependency on US but the purpose of the axis will be served as well.

 

[GR!FF!N]

My assumption was same. US and india are now friends, so india will not come on lime light , it's USA who'll deal everything for US-indo axis interest. india knows well that mass BD ppl have sentiment against them. If USA does the same thing, BD has very little scope to escape because of economic dependency on US but the purpose of the axis will be served as well.

so you are trying to say,India is exporting Bangladesh handling business to USA????pure noobness...
and mass BD people doesn't have sentiment against India..see,even your government is co-operating with India,and i can asuure you,they are not some puppet government set-up by RAW.

 

[zip]

As they say babies are always active ..
Conspiracy syrup will do fine

 

[kalu_miah]

My assumption was same. US and india are now friends, so india will not come on lime light , it's USA who'll deal everything for US-indo axis interest. india knows well that mass BD ppl have sentiment against them. If USA does the same thing, BD has very little scope to escape because of economic dependency on US but the purpose of the axis will be served as well.

USA choosing India as its strategic partner to contain China will be a negative development in the region.

USA is a declining power. It had extremely stupid foreign policy in the last few decades. I would not be surprised to see them making another mistake. Blame the Zionists in the 1% elite and the policy making circles for this and the incompetence of others who cannot stop these fools, who are shooting at their own foot. If USA/West goes down and become second world countries, where will the Jewish people go next, India?

If USA makes this mistake, we will have to see if Japan can lead the ASEAN+ bloc and make it a viable power without taking sides with China or USA.

If we see no possibility of above ASEAN+, then we will have no choice but to go for the SCO based Sino-Russian-Muslim alliance including Eurasion Union, China, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt etc.

so you are trying to say,India is exporting Bangladesh handling business to USA????pure noobness...
and mass BD people doesn't have sentiment against India..see,even your government is co-operating with India,and i can asuure you,they are not some puppet government set-up by RAW.

Indian teaching Bangladeshi's about Bangladesh. Classic delusional Indian.

 

[GR!FF!N]

Indian teaching Bangladeshi's about Bangladesh. Classic delusional Indian.

your post shows who is delusional.India is hiring a "Superpower" to deal with a country smaller than one of our state and whose 3 side is covered by India..so,tell me buddy..who is delusional. or may i have to send you a mirror..

 

[MilSpec]

USA choosing India as its strategic partner to contain China will be a negative development in the region.

Doesn't matter what USA wants, India has and will always put Indian interests first. Indo china relations will remain the same, they will remain India's largest trading partners irrespective of what other idiots wish for.

USA is a declining power. It had extremely stupid foreign policy in the last few decades. I would not be surprised to see them making another mistake.

Declining power? With that firepower, they will continue to call the shots

If USA makes this mistake, we will have to see if Japan can lead the ASEAN+ bloc and make it a viable power without taking sides with China or USA.

Newsflash, Japan is a strategic ally of USA and has a extensive strategic and economic ties with India.

If we see no possibility of above ASEAN+, then we will have no choice but to go for the SCO based Sino-Russian-Muslim alliance including Eurasion Union, China, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt etc.

This group is supposed to counter the hypothetical Indo-US hegemonious creature, right?
lets see what potpourri you have come up with,China (Biggest economic ties with both US and India) Iran (India close ally),Pakistan (US close ally and partner state) Russia (India's biggest supporter including in SCO/UNSC/UN), Mynamar/Malaysia/Indonesia (Again which shares good relations with India and US)

Shogun er shrape jodi goru morto.

Maybe geo-strategists should get informed about international relations (and common sense) before building imaginary power blocs for world war 3, theek to?

 

[illusion8]

What is this false bogey that you guys keep carrying about India??? Ok lets go by your assumptions - India is influencing your government by your pretense,But its turning out to be good for you - your economy is doing great, you are being given free trade in India, EU, the US, the US(the super power) is looking at you to play a vital role in the bay of Bengal.

India is still hosting millions of your pole vaulters, India is transiting goods thru' BD in return you will earn millions of dollars, Bhutan and Burma are looking to trade with you and are looking to have goods transit thru' BD.

The only if I say so - bad Indian influence is u will become more secular and won't be looking at a seat in the radical Islamic society. Which believe me is not so good for BD's health, what with not having Islamic states surrounding you for your protection and in turn being surrounded by a secular democratic country India. So chin up and welcome to the new and free world and be adaptive. Your people will be more thankful for the better life in store for them in the future.

 

[kalu_miah]

As usual delusional Indian Hindutva brigade getting hyper without any logic. The world does not revolve around India.

 

[illusion8]

As usual delusional Indians getting hyper without any logic. The world does not revolve around India.

Yeah we know that, but your delusions are always about India.

 

[GR!FF!N]

As usual delusional Indian Hindutva brigade getting hyper without any logic. The world does not revolve around India.

but you delusional post always bring india from nowhere(india centric i may say)..

 

[kalu_miah]

I could care less about India, but Indian dirty hand was found in the East Bengal cookie jar and it still remains there. Till we cut it off and feed it do the dogs, it will remain our national preoccupation, not just my personal.

 

[MilSpec]

I could care less about India, but Indian dirty hand was found in the East Bengal cookie jar and it still remains there. Till we cut it off and feed it do the dogs, it will remain our national preoccupation, not just my personal.

East bengal? you mean bangladesh.... people like you make other bangladeshi look bad, its unfortunate. All your cockamamie world order powerblocs are nothing but utter garbage.