The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

[Beast]

The other thing the American arms embargo did was force China to develop a robust domestic arms industry. Without the embargo, China would still be very much addicted to foreign weapons, without the ability to even produce artillery shells (like that craphole India). So I'm sure China is thankful to the US in that regard.

In fact, I do not agree with you. Sanction did indeed delay our military modernisation. We could have 2-3 modern high thrust turbofan develop by China if not for the delay instead of one taihang engine. China always seek self sufficient ever since the Sino-Soviet split in the early 1960.

 

[Sanchez]

Another 'Soviet-China' alliance that will defeat the US. I read this back in the '80s.

And please do not even bother to correct me by saying this is Russia...

It at least did a blow to "US-Vietnamese" alliance back in the 1970s.

 

[Keel]

Without the embargo, any "progress" China makes would be as hollow as the "Indigenous content" in any of India's defense projects.

No dont ever compare us with the Indians, Never please

There are 3 points that I can easily back up my claim that China will never heavily rely on imports like Indians even if there is no embargo

1. Our commercial planes in development stage (ARJ 21-700 is reaching final certification) despite they have substantial supports from foreign system suppliers; and the engines are from GE. Absolutely no embargo at all. However, we are still working on our own engine like, the CJ-1000 series
2. Our suppliers' origins are from the USA and NATO. It is not difficult to understand how these people can hold you by the neck if you dont comply with their rules
3. We are more capable than anyone expects

So I reaffiem my statement:
Embargo can slow our progress down;
Without embargo - faster progress.

 

[AgentOrange]

No dont ever compare us with the Indians, Never please

There are 3 points that I can easily back up my claim that China will never heavily rely on imports like Indians even if there is no embargo

1. Our commercial planes in development stage (ARJ 21-700 is reaching final certification) despite they have substantial supports from foreign system suppliers; and the engines are from GE. However, we are still working on our own engine like, the CJ-1000 series
2. Our suppliers' origins are from the USA and NATO. It is not difficult to understand how these people can hold you by the neck if you dont comply with their rules
3. We are more capable than anyone expects

So I reaffiem my statement:
Embargo can slow our progress down;
Without embargo - faster progress.

Well explained. I concede the point to you then bro.

 

[Keel]

Well explained. I concede the point to you then bro.

Thank you bro. Another brilliant mind to meet! My pleasure!

 

[Galad]

It`s just one of the many multi-bilion deals signed between Russia and China in last few years.Glad strategic parthnership between both countries becoming stronger and stronger(thank you sanctions ).There are talks already between India and Russia for possible gas pipeline-probably Altai one will be extended to India at later date if agreement is done deal.True it will take few years at least to build the pipeline at its full length and capacity but it is expecpected for such big projects.Meantime lots of money will be invested,manifacturing sector will have lots of orders,many new jobs will be created- a win-win situation for all counties involved.And generally speaking it is wise move by Russia to look east.West is getting increasingly irrelevant and out of touch with reality with each passing year.

 

[mike2000]

No dont ever compare us with the Indians, Never please

There are 3 points that I can easily back up my claim that China will never heavily rely on imports like Indians even if there is no embargo

1. Our commercial planes in development stage (ARJ 21-700 is reaching final certification) despite they have substantial supports from foreign system suppliers; and the engines are from GE. Absolutely no embargo at all. However, we are still working on our own engine like, the CJ-1000 series
2. Our suppliers' origins are from the USA and NATO. It is not difficult to understand how these people can hold you by the neck if you dont comply with their rules
3. We are more capable than anyone expects

So I reaffiem my statement:
Embargo can slow our progress down;
Without embargo - faster progress.

Maybe, but not entirely true, If say we had allowed you into our Galileo navigation system(in which you wanted to particpate and invested over $200millions invane.lol) which unfortunately our officals refused you access to its critical systems, i dont think you will have went on with your own navigation system to the advanced point in which you are today, same with ISS, if the U.S had allowed you access to ISS, then you wouldnt be building one of your own today.

 

[Keel]

Maybe, but not entirely true, If say we had allowed you into our Galileo navigation system(in which you wanted to particpate and invested over $200millions invane.lol) which unfortunately our officals refused you access to its critical systems, i dont think you will have went on with your own navigation system to the advanced point in which you are today, same with ISS, if the U.S had allowed you access to ISS, then you wouldnt be building one of your own today.

We are strong believers in self-reliance and independence
Even if we were allowed into Galileo, we would still determine to make one on our own
Why should we stick our necks out waiting to be strangled at any time?
Same applies to ISS.

Similar situations can be found in many NATO members who can have access to GPS then why Galilio
A bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush

 

[mike2000]

We are strong believers in self-reliance and independence
Even if we were allowed into Galileo, we would still determine to make one on our own
Why should we stick our necks out waiting to be strangled at any time?
Same applies to ISS.

Similar situations can be found in many NATO members who can have access to GPS then why Galilio
A bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush

Well i disagree with you on this two. i dont think you would have been building yours if we had let you access to ours(which i think we should have done). Anyway we can agree to disagree on this one.

 

[Keel]

Well i disagree with you on this two. i dont think you would have been building yours if we had let you access to ours(which i think we should have done). Anyway we can agree to disagree on this one.

Still I need to disagree by stating our positions again
When we ask the following questions in the light of the absence of our own satellite system for guidance:
1. what will our weapons be when we are invaded?
2. what will our space advancement be when taking a venture to the moon and return back earth?
3. what will our transportation system be for ships, airplane, trucks?
4. are we capable of making one on our own?
5. do we have the money to do that?

So with or without access to Galileo, we are making one on our own FOR SURE particularly when we have to look over our shoulders constantly for possible attacks by wolve packs

 

[Aepsilons]

The US saw how Japan was becoming a dominating economic power, again the Americans devised a plan which would prevent that from happening.

WRONG. The Plaza Accord was not the reason why Japan's economy underperformed during the late 1980s and early 1990s. The housing market bubble had much to do with this. We've debated this time and time again and @LeveragedBuyout and I agreed already that the Plaza Accord had nothing to do with this. You are more than welcome to purvey through the Japan Economy Thread, of course. You can avail of the information there.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

America has dropped the ball on this one.

The three major poles of the last Cold War were America, Russia, and China.

The same will still be true in the future, since all other countries are either in one of the above "camps", or are neutral and trying to stay out of it. So it's basically a triangle, same as before.

Russia is now subordinate to China, and becoming less relevant every day. Its main value is its natural resources, which it must sell to sustain itself, but otherwise, China exceeds Russia in almost every way.

I must agree with @xyxmt that India will become another pole at some point in the future. India has made it clear throughout its history (primarily NAM) that it will not play a supporting role to the US in the same way that Russia will play junior partner to China. Still, India is more likely to agree with the US on issues of the international order than it is with China, given our shared democracy and other colonial heritage.

WRONG. The Plaza Accord was not the reason why Japan's economy underperformed during the late 1980s and early 1990s. The housing market bubble had much to do with this. We've debated this time and time again and @LeveragedBuyout and I agreed already that the Plaza Accord had nothing to do with this. You are more than welcome to purvey through the Japan Economy Thread, of course. You can avail of the information there.

@Nihonjin1051 is correct, this myth of Plaza destroying Japan is so incorrect that it can only be considered yet another conspiracy theory. @terranMarine , please see the following posts:

Chinese Economy News & Updates | Page 282

Chinese Economy News & Updates | Page 282

Chinese Economy News & Updates | Page 283

I might write a single, comprehensive post about this in the future to finally put this myth in the grave, but I'm a bit burned out at the moment, so please make do with the posts above. Thank you.

 

[Aepsilons]

Russia is now subordinate to China, and becoming less relevant every day. Its main value is its natural resources, which it must sell to sustain itself, but otherwise, China exceeds Russia in almost every way.

I must agree with @xyxmt that India will become another pole at some point in the future. India has made it clear throughout its history (primarily NAM) that it will not play a supporting role to the US in the same way that Russia will play junior partner to China. Still, India is more likely to agree with the US on issues of the international order than it is with China, given our shared democracy and other colonial heritage.



@Nihonjin1051 is correct, this myth of Plaza destroying Japan is so incorrect that it can only be considered yet another conspiracy theory. @terranMarine , please see the following posts:

Chinese Economy News & Updates | Page 282

Chinese Economy News & Updates | Page 282

Chinese Economy News & Updates | Page 283

I might write a single, comprehensive post about this in the future to finally put this myth in the grave, but I'm a bit burned out at the moment, so please make do with the posts above. Thank you.

Thanks , Sir, I hope to read your posts soon. I've missed you on the board , hoping you're doing well. Regards as always.

 

[mike2000]

Russia is now subordinate to China, and becoming less relevant every day. Its main value is its natural resources, which it must sell to sustain itself, but otherwise, China exceeds Russia in almost every way.

I must agree with @xyxmt that India will become another pole at some point in the future. India has made it clear throughout its history (primarily NAM) that it will not play a supporting role to the US in the same way that Russia will play junior partner to China. Still, India is more likely to agree with the US on issues of the international order than it is with China, given our shared democracy and other colonial heritage.

I agree with everything you said Leveragedbuyout, except the point i highlighted. Interests/allainces/partnerships have nothing to do with shared democracy, far from it. If not India wouldnt have been close/an ally to the dictatorial Soviet Union and even today still considers authocratic Russia as some india members here claim(naively though) as their 'best friend'.lool If China and India didnt have a border dispute in the first place(though i admit it was something we cause, when we seized part of tibet and incorporated it into India) then they would have been strong allies as well for a long time now, since its mainly the border dispute that keeps them apart and causes distrust. Countries are only after their own interests, not values. Thats how its been in the past and thats how it will keep being in future.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

I agree with everything you said Leveragedbuyout, except the point i highlighted. Interests/allainces/partnerships have nothing to do with shared democracy, far from it. If not India wouldnt have been close/an ally to the dictatorial Soviet Union and even today still considers authocratic Russia as some india members here claim(naively though) as their 'best friend'.lool If China and India didnt have a border dispute in the first place(though i admit it was something we cause, when we seized part of tibet and incorporated it into India) then they would have been strong allies as well for a long time now, since its mainly the border dispute that keeps them apart and causes distrust. Countries are only after their own interests, not values. Thats how its been in the past and thats how it will keep being in future.

Generally speaking, I agree with you, but democracy in a friend or ally is very important to the US. We have autocratic allies. But please consider the opposite side of the equation: if China ever implements democracy, it is possible that we will see yet another realignment in the world, where the US rushes to establish warm relations with China at the expense of other nations. So much has changed in the past 30 years that I would not dismiss this as a possibility.

For now, though, it is India that is the democratic power in the region, and we recognize that quality, and the problems it entails, in our own dysfunctional polity. That's why we can afford to wait for a friendly administration (BJP) to come into office in order to improve ties (our own Democratic Party is just as responsible for poor relations with certain other countries, and its passing would enable improved ties).

In China at the moment, there is no prospect of waiting for the administration to change, because the CCP is always succeeded by the CCP; but even China knows that history moves in unexpected ways, so we should not count on the CCP maintaining a monopoly forever.

And now we've come full-circle. Yes, nations protect their interests, not values. But both interests and values change, and like the turning of the gears of a clock, we might find ourselves in the future interlocked with different partners depending on the configuration of those interests and values.