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‘The end of an era’: oil price collapse may force Saudis to rein in arms spending

As I already wrote in this thread, KSA has 2 sovereign wealth funds worth an estimated 1 trillion USD. KSA has investments and assets abroad worth trillions of USD.
The Saudi Arabian non-oil economy has been booming in recent years and had impressive growth rates.
KSA is currently undergoing one of the largest industrialization surges anywhere out there as the "made in KSA" gives a small insight into.
KSA's budget for 2020 was the biggest in history when it was announced in December of 2019 and 40% of the budget was non-oil derived (38% to be exact). Not many years ago such a number would be unthinkable. Which proves that things are moving in the right direction despite overall low oil prices in the past 5-6 years.

https://us-sabc.org/saudi-arabias-2020-budget-review/

https://home.kpmg/sa/en/home/insights/2019/12/kingdom-of-saudi-arabia-2020-budget-report.html

Saudi Arabia buys $7.7 billion shares in world’s best known companies
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Updated 19 May 2020
FRANK KANE
May 17, 2020
  • Bargain-hunting wealth fund invests in Boeing, Facebook, Disney, Starbucks and more
DUBAI: Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund has gone bargain hunting during the current economic turmoil, snapping up about $7.7 billion worth of shares in some of the best known companies in the world.

The $320 billion Public Investment Fund bought stakes in global corporate leaders such as Boeing, Facebook, Disney, Marriott and Starbucks. It also invested in two big US banks, Citigroup and Bank of America, and took holdings in oil giants BP, Total and Royal Dutch Shell.

Stock market experts said the buying spree reflected confidence on the part of the PIF that companies badly affected by the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic would recover quickly, and their share prices would rise.

“The PIF seems to have taken a view on prices from a long-term perspective. We must assume they bought when they were down on the assumption they’ll go back up,” Tarek Fadlallah, chief executive of Nomura Asset Management in the Middle East, told Arab News.

Explaining its investment rationale, the PIF described itself as “a patient investor with a long-term horizon. As such, we actively seek strategic opportunities both in Saudi Arabia and globally that have strong potential to generate significant long-term returns while further benefiting the people of Saudi Arabia and driving the country’s economic growth.”

FASTFACTS
  • The buying spree reflects confidence on the part of the PIF that companies badly hit by the pandemic would recover quickly, say experts.
  • US stocks lost about 30 per cent of their value in the crash after the global lockdowns began, but have since recovered about half of that decline.
A declaration to the US stock market regulator showed PIF having positions worth about $10 billion in 24 companies. The biggest, worth just over $2 billion, was an already declared holding in taxi app Uber.

The next biggest was an investment in BP, nearly 34 million shares valued at $827 million, followed by the Boeing stake for $713 million. Facebook and Citigroup stakes were valued at about $521 million each.

The new PIF portfolio has a strong bias toward travel, entertainment and hospitality, with shareholdings in the Marriott hotel chain, the online travel company Booking.com and events promoter Live Nation.

There is also interest in technology with investments in Cisco, Qualcomm and Broadcom, and in pharmaceuticals via a stake in Pfizer.

One notable smaller purchase was in Berkshire Hathaway, the vehicle of legendary investor Warren Buffet, who recently sold big stakes on a pessimistic view of future valuations. One Saudi banker said: “That’s a cheeky way of PIF telling Buffet that they are more optimistic than him.”

US stocks lost about 30 per cent of their value in the crash after the global lockdowns began, but have since recovered about half of that decline after large-scale fiscal intervention by the federal authorities.

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1675796/business-economy


Saudi Arabia's PIF buying spree is vote of confidence in pandemic recovery

FRANK KANE

May 19, 2020
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We should have seen it coming. Yasir Al-Rumayyan, governor of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), told a virtual gathering of investors last month, “You don’t want to waste a crisis. We’re looking into any opportunities.”

Amid the global economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, few took him at his word, but at the end of last week proof of the PIF’s ambitions came in a Form 13F declaration from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the watchdog of the American investment industry.

The disclosure — required by US authorities of all big investment institutions — showed that the PIF had not wasted any time at all during the crisis. In fact, it had been in hyperactive mode during the first half, when global stock markets had plummeted as economic activity ground to a halt under pandemic lockdowns.

The PIF had spent around $7.7 billion on a shopping spree of US assets, many of them in sectors deemed especially vulnerable to the forecast downturn such as travel, hospitality, and entertainment, as well as in energy and financial services.

The disclosure repays a bit of scrutiny. Note first, that although there are some investment businesses outside the US — Canadian Natural Resources and Suncor Energy of Canada, along with Europe’s Royal Dutch Shell, Total and BP — all are in US-quoted securities, for example American depository receipts (ADRs).

Another point is that the document is a snapshot, rather than a timeline. It does not identify exactly when the PIF bought the shares, only what their value was at the end of March. So, it is not possible to tell precisely what price the Kingdom’s wealth fund paid for the assets.

But it is reasonable to assume most of them were purchased in the first few weeks of March, when US markets fell by around 30 percent before the federal authorities intervened to stabilize financial markets with the first of their “bazooka” interventions.

These had the desired effect as stocks rebounded from the end of March, winning back more than half of their earlier losses. It is entirely possible that the PIF is already in the money on some of the investments.

The PIF picks fall into five broad categories. Bank of America and Citigroup are two leading financial institutions and seen as financial “blue chips” that already have corporate and investment banking relationships with the Kingdom. They are safe long-term bets, but the shares could be vulnerable to any further downturn in financial markets.

The PIF buying spree helps shift its portfolio away from a concentration on Saudi Arabia and its big projects.

Frank Kane

Leisure and travel were hit hard by social distancing measures and air travel restrictions. Marriott International, Booking Holdings and Carnival Cruises obviously face challenges until the new normal of global travel becomes apparent, but could be seen as immediate beneficiaries from a recovery.

The same applies to entertainment — in the form of Disney Corp. and Live Nation — although they could take longer to get back to pre-pandemic levels because of ongoing social distancing and understandable fears about close-proximity events.

The PIF went big in technology, with stakes in Automatic Data Processing, IBM, Qualcomm, and Broadcom. Technology is one of the sectors generally seen as a long-term winner from the health crisis.

Boeing, another big PIF investment, was already suffering because of the 737 Max problems, which have been compounded by increased uncertainty over new aircraft orders. The corporation is well known in the Kingdom through other defense and technology business.

The energy investments, especially in independent oil companies, sparked some skepticism. The purpose of the PIF after all is to diversify the Kingdom’s economy away from oil dependency. But it is a sector Saudi Arabia obviously knows very well and could bring the PIF some influence in future global energy policy, as well as capital upside when oil prices improve.

The small investment in Berkshire Hathaway — the vehicle of Warren Buffet — was seen as a riposte to the legendary investor who has been among the gloomier voices in the crisis. But the PIF could also do worse than backing the “sage of Omaha.”

The PIF buying spree helps shift its portfolio away from a concentration on Saudi Arabia and its big projects. Long-term international investment, in sectors that will make money for the Kingdom and assist its own diversification ambitions, is a core part of the PIF strategy.

But most of all, the $7.7 billion bargain hunt is a big vote of confidence that economic and financial recovery will be rapid and resilient. The coming months will show how good a call that is.

• Frank Kane is an award-winning business journalist based in Dubai. Twitter: @frankkanedubai

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1676721

Surprising turns of events for an supposedly bankrupt, collapsing and starving country as proclaimed on PDF.:D


As for the entire oil price "war" a few months ago.



Take bombastic propaganda articles from Qatari owned media such as the Middle East Monitor that has already been posted on PDF. Articles like this.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200501-mismanagement-is-driving-saudi-arabia-towards-bankruptcy/

The above article suggests that KSA was used and forced. However, that was not true, not even one bit. Here is a quote from that article: "The prospect of losing U.S. military protection made the royal family “bend at the knees” and bow to Trump’s demands, a Middle Eastern diplomat told Reuters."

What actually happened?

Key information:


- There are three players, KSA, Russia, and the U.S

- OPEC+ includes OPEC members and others, such as Russia

- Both Russia and the. U.S are not members of OPEC

- Oil demand declined because of COVID-19, and KSA wanted to cut - down production to maintain a reasonable price

- Although they had an agreement (KSA and Russia), Russia refused to cut down its production

- The U.S actually increased its production to take advantage of the situation

- The U.S has always acted independently because they believe that it is a free market and there should never be such agreements

- KSA got a bit mad and said, alright.

- KSA increased its production to bring Russia back to the table

- Oil price went down

-
-
What happened to the free market talking? Well....


- However, On Apr 13, 2020, they (INCLUDING the U.S) reached an agreement to cut down production

The article: A negative story about KSA

Reality: KSA disciplined two amateur players, and DID NOT cut its production down until they reached an agreement.

Emerging economies around the world ranked on their financial strength

May 2nd 2020


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https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/05/02/which-emerging-markets-are-in-most-financial-peril

@The SC @camelguy @ahmadnawaz22 @Foxtrot Alpha
 
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The Saudi Public Investment Fund investments in the American market achieve a wonderful profit of 11.89% as the market value of the investments increased by the Saudi Fund in America
1.3 billion dollars, equivalent to 4.8 billion riyals..



The fund invested $ 9.777 billion during this Corona crisis..
Now the value of its investments is 11.096 billion dollars
A profit of the fund is 11.89% at the moment in his investments in the United States of America
 
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absolutely wrong, situation has changed in few years and Arab leadership has realized this. They are sending their people on scholarships to US / Europe to study and return to their country and start working like everyone else.

From Kuwait, Qatar to Oman, everyone has started nationalization drives urging companies to hire local workforce, I have received pictures of Arabs working as Trailer driver to room cleaners ....so above assumption of yours is false and uncalled for
have you ever lived in the gulf?
I have.

Just about every Arab there has a PHD but again incapable of work.
They are notorious for going to Europe or North America, "having fun" and since they paid full price, getting a degree.

What usually happens is that, depending on how much wasta they have, they get put in charge of a company or ministry. They sit around all day drinking tea making 100,000 USD a year.
meanwhile, the Indian/Phillipino/Pakistani guy under him does all the work and gets paid like $15000 a year (if they are lucky)

I am not Arab bashing, I actually want them to succeed.
But I also live in the real world and know the ground realities.

In my entire time there, I only ever met one local doctor who was actually practicing. He got his training from Canada.
 
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have you ever lived in the gulf?
I have.

Just about every Arab there has a PHD but again incapable of work.
They are notorious for going to Europe or North America, "having fun" and since they paid full price, getting a degree.

What usually happens is that, depending on how much wasta they have, they get put in charge of a company or ministry. They sit around all day drinking tea making 100,000 USD a year.
meanwhile, the Indian/Phillipino/Pakistani guy under him does all the work and gets paid like $15000 a year (if they are lucky)

I am not Arab bashing, I actually want them to succeed.
But I also live in the real world and know the ground realities.

In my entire time there, I only ever met one local doctor who was actually practicing. He got his training from Canada.
I think my comment was clear, I have seen arabs working as room cleaners / sanitizing staff & trailer drivers ...last time i checked these don't pay 100,000$ / year....
I haven't lived in gulf, heck i haven't even travelled outside Pakistan but i know a little here & a little there

You do realize that your post is completely worthless? You have provided zero empirical evidence for your laughable claims. No statistics of any kind collaborate the nonsense of yours.

If I recall you lived in Qatar ages ago, a tiny country with less than 350.000 locals ( :lol: ). That entity (Qatar) is not a real country but a city state. That population size (locals) is a significantly smaller amount of people than found in neighborhoods in Riyadh.
Their situation has nothing to do with KSA and is not representative for any other country than Qatar and even though I dislike Qatar's current regime, they are doing rather well on many fronts and their population has a literacy rate of 100%, they are well-educated and investing a lot in education, science and numerous fields not any different from other GCC states.

Do you expect one of the richest nations on the planet with barely 350.000 locals/citizens to work manual labour when they can import cheap labour from abroad? Do you think that locals in Monaco or Liechtenstein or Singapore are doing manual labour?:lol: Your ignorance is astounding.

Useless post by every measure.
May be he has lived in gulf long time ago hence not aware of change in policy at gulf states..
 
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have you ever lived in the gulf?
I have.

Just about every Arab there has a PHD but again incapable of work.
They are notorious for going to Europe or North America, "having fun" and since they paid full price, getting a degree.

What usually happens is that, depending on how much wasta they have, they get put in charge of a company or ministry. They sit around all day drinking tea making 100,000 USD a year.
meanwhile, the Indian/Phillipino/Pakistani guy under him does all the work and gets paid like $15000 a year (if they are lucky)

I am not Arab bashing, I actually want them to succeed.
But I also live in the real world and know the ground realities.

In my entire time there, I only ever met one local doctor who was actually practicing. He got his training from Canada.

You do realize that your post is completely worthless? You have provided zero empirical evidence for your laughable claims. No statistics of any kind collaborate the nonsense of yours.

If I recall you lived in Qatar ages ago, a tiny country with less than 350.000 locals ( :lol: ). That entity (Qatar) is not a real country but a city state. That population size (locals) is a significantly smaller amount of people than found in neighborhoods in Riyadh.
Their situation has nothing to do with KSA and is not representative for any other country than Qatar and even though I dislike Qatar's current regime, they are doing rather well on many fronts and their population has a literacy rate of 100%, they are well-educated and investing a lot in education, science and numerous fields not any different from other GCC states.

Do you expect one of the richest nations on the planet with barely 350.000 locals/citizens to work manual labour jobs when they can import cheap labour from abroad? Would you do that yourself in their position or make your family members do it? Do you think that locals in Monaco or Liechtenstein or Singapore are doing manual labour?:lol: Your ignorance is astounding.

I suggest keeping your fictive or non-fictive "personal experiences" in Qatar in threads related to Qatar, not KSA.

Useless post of yours by every measure.

I think my comment was clear, I have seen arabs working as room cleaners / sanitizing staff & trailer drivers ...last time i checked these don't pay 100,000$ / year....
I haven't lived in gulf, heck i haven't even travelled outside Pakistan but i know a little here & a little there


May be he has lived in gulf long time ago hence not aware of change in policy at gulf states..

He has lived in Qatar as per my previous exchanges with him. Everyone can claim everything on the internet. What matters here is that he cannot substantive his empty claims with proofs, official statistics, ground realities etc.
In any case a tiny nation like Qatar with 350.000 locals has no comparison with KSA, a country 186 times larger than Qatar with a 100 times bigger native population. To put it into perspective, KSA's army (SANG included) is almost twice the size of Qatar's native population. A joke to compare.

The Saudi Public Investment Fund investments in the American market achieve a wonderful profit of 11.89% as the market value of the investments increased by the Saudi Fund in America
1.3 billion dollars, equivalent to 4.8 billion riyals..



The fund invested $ 9.777 billion during this Corona crisis..
Now the value of its investments is 11.096 billion dollars
A profit of the fund is 11.89% at the moment in his investments in the United States of America

Great stuff, brother. As expected.
 
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I think my comment was clear, I have seen arabs working as room cleaners / sanitizing staff & trailer drivers ...last time i checked these don't pay 100,000$ / year....
I haven't lived in gulf, heck i haven't even travelled outside Pakistan but i know a little here & a little there


May be he has lived in gulf long time ago hence not aware of change in policy at gulf states..

you need to make a distinction between Arabs and Khalijis.
Khalijis are the oil rich Arabs, and we are specifically talking about them.
You will not find them cleaning any toilets.
 
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you need to make a distinction between Arabs and Khalijis.
Khalijis are the oil rich Arabs, and we are specifically talking about them.
You will not find them cleaning any toilets.
Yes, am talking about 'Khalijis' too, the Oil rich arabs you are referring to
 
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You do realize that your post is completely worthless? You have provided zero empirical evidence for your laughable claims. No statistics of any kind collaborate the nonsense of yours.

If I recall you lived in Qatar ages ago, a tiny country with less than 350.000 locals ( :lol: ). That entity (Qatar) is not a real country but a city state. That population size (locals) is a significantly smaller amount of people than found in neighborhoods in Riyadh.
Their situation has nothing to do with KSA and is not representative for any other country than Qatar and even though I dislike Qatar's current regime, they are doing rather well on many fronts and their population has a literacy rate of 100%, they are well-educated and investing a lot in education, science and numerous fields not any different from other GCC states.

Do you expect one of the richest nations on the planet with barely 350.000 locals/citizens to work manual labour jobs when they can import cheap labour from abroad? Would you do that yourself in their position or make your family members do it? Do you think that locals in Monaco or Liechtenstein or Singapore are doing manual labour?:lol: Your ignorance is astounding.

I suggest keeping your fictive or non-fictive "personal experiences" in Qatar in threads related to Qatar, not KSA.

Useless post of yours by every measure.



He has lived in Qatar as per my previous exchanges with him. Everyone can claim everything on the internet. What matters here is that he cannot substantive his empty claims with proofs, official statistics, ground realities etc.
In any case a tiny nation like Qatar with 350.000 locals has no connection with KSA, a country 186 times larger than Qatar with a 100 times bigger native population.

man, you are really butt hurt.
Must have touched nerve.

KSA is actually in a worse situation then Qatar.
Heck, Qatar has gas which is still valuable.
KSA has oil which they are literally paying people to take away.

And you want "empirical" evidence of laziness?

LOL
I don't think anyone give you that,
what we can give you is the number of tech companies that innovate: 0
Leading software producers: 0
major exports outside of oil and dates: 0
etc etc

Education in Khaliji lands is just the paper.
Like I said, in my entire time there only met local doctor yet every local seems to have a PHD.

Yes, am talking about 'Khalijis' too, the Oil rich arabs you are referring to
Can you share where you saw them as cleaners and what not?

The most I ever saw in my years there ware Bahraini people and Omani people working as taxi drivers and cashiers. Because both those places are not as rich as the rest. All the other gulf countries... it's not even conceivable.
 
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man, you are really butt hurt.
Must have touched nerve.

KSA is actually in a worse situation then Qatar.
Heck, Qatar has gas which is still valuable.
KSA has oil which they are literally paying people to take away.

And you want "empirical" evidence of laziness?

LOL
I don't think anyone give you that,
what we can give you is the number of tech companies that innovate: 0
Leading software producers: 0
major exports outside of oil and dates: 0
etc etc

Education in Khaliji lands is just the paper.
Like I said, in my entire time there only met local doctor yet every local seems to have a PHD.

I could care less about what some anonymous anti-Arab on a Pakistani forum is writing of baseless unsubstantiated drivel, I just don't like witnessing nonsense and people talking about topics that they have no clue about acting like "they know it all".

See my post 61 and make that nonsense claim of "KSA being in a worse position than Qatar". You are literally a joke.

More useless claims that show your ignorance.

@Foxtrot Alpha is this a new low for the standards on PDF or what is going on? It is the same drivel with this guy each time.

you need to make a distinction between Arabs and Khalijis.
Khalijis are the oil rich Arabs, and we are specifically talking about them.
You will not find them cleaning any toilets.

Why are you obsessed with cleaning toilets? Did you work in that field in Qatar or what is going on? No locals in Qatar work as toilet cleaners (LOL) because they are educated and wealthy people and don't need to.

In similarly wealthy countries (Western European ones), locals don't work as toilet cleaners either. Cheap labour/foreigners do that sort of jobs as well. And once again, Qatar is home to 350.000 locals, smaller than neighborhoods in Riyadh. It is a city state. Only completely ignorant people like you would compare Qatar with KSA.

I am done as I am wasting my time here.

@Slav Defence kindly take a look at this nonsense.
 
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We also need to get rid of shaming people for being cleaners, vital functions to society as compared to some of the unimportant 'high status' roles where people don't do shit.

Although we know very well, especially in Africa/ME/Asia how important a man's status is. It won't stop the shaming.
 
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I could care less about what some anonymous anti-Arab on a Pakistani forum is writing of baseless unsubstantiated drivel, I just don't like witnessing nonsense and people talking about topics that they have no clue about acting like "they know it all".

See my post 61 and make that nonsense claim of "KSA being in a worse position than Qatar". You are literally a joke.

More useless claims that show your ignorance.

@Foxtrot Alpha is this a new low for the standards on PDF or what is going on? It is the same drivel with this guy each time.



Why are you obsessed with cleaning toilets? Did you work in that field in Qatar or what is going on? No locals in Qatar work as toilet cleaners (LOL) because they are educated and wealthy people and don't need to.

In similarly wealthy countries (Western European ones), locals don't work as toilet cleaners either. Cheap labour/foreigners do that sort of jobs as well.

Couldn't.
I could't care less.
As in, I am incapable of caring less.
I could less means you care enough to be able to care less
Yay for education :toast_sign:

also, yay for personal insults.
You as shown above, you don't seem to understand that the topic of toilet cleaning was broached by mr. Foxtrot.
but when you "could care less," attention to details is not your strong point.
 
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Can you share where you saw them as cleaners and what not?

The most I ever saw in my years there ware Bahraini people and Omani people working as taxi drivers and cashiers. Because both those places are not as rich as the rest. All the other gulf countries... it's not even conceivable.
Since you have accepted that there are Khaleejis working in manual labor, this throws your argument of Oil rich arabs sitting on their butt, all day long doing nothing, out of the window.

'Khaleejis' are working from Bankers to retail staff.....i think masonary & manual labor is the only sector where they havn't started working in yet....if 'Khaleejis' are sitting all day long doing nothing, then who is running their hospitals?
Nursing staff will allow patients to die, since they are 'sitting on their butt' doing nothing??
 
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Since you have accepted that there are Khaleejis working in manual labor, this throws your argument of Oil rich arabs sitting on their butt, all day long doing nothing, out of the window.

'Khaleejis' are working from Bankers to retail staff.....i think masonary & manual labor is the only sector where they havn't started working in yet....if 'Khaleejis' are sitting all day long doing nothing, then who is running their hospitals?
Nursing staff will allow patients to die, since they are 'sitting on their butt' doing nothing??

Sense is not going to work with this guy, I am afraid. I am speaking from personal experience. No matter what you write or say, he will stick to his nonsense (unsubstantiated) no matter how absurd it is.
 
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Since you have accepted that there are Khaleejis working in manual labor, this throws your argument of Oil rich arabs sitting on their butt, all day long doing nothing, out of the window.

'Khaleejis' are working from Bankers to retail staff.....i think masonary & manual labor is the only sector where they havn't started working in yet....if 'Khaleejis' are sitting all day long doing nothing, then who is running their hospitals?
Nursing staff will allow patients to die, since they are 'sitting on their butt' doing nothing??

so your logic is
in 2 out of the 6 Khalki counties, it is not uncommon to see locals working as taxi drivers, that means There are no Khalijis in any country who are ever sitting on their butts?
Man... that is some strong logic there.
I would not even make a statement like that for the west.
But you do you.

I can't compete with your "logic" with my first hand experience of years of living there.
you must be more right then me because.... well feelings I guess.

PS. That must also means that No Pakistani has ever been lazy on their job since so many Pakistanis work in manual Labor.
Super Power Pakistan indeed.
 
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