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The differing futures of Pakistan and China. Does Beijing get a bigger pie?
Global Village Space |
Saeed Afridi |
The story of Pakistan, since its very incidental inception, has been one of talking about the imminent realization of its potential and latent, sometime erroneously termed dormant, adeptness. Over the past seven decades this story has managed to accumulate legends, even myths, of its own. Every generation, even decade, has its own lore of a suitably sanitized individual who, had he or she been given the time or space, would have propelled Pakistan into the ranks of the global elite. Assassinating a Utopian certainty, Seoul mimicking five year plans, kings and dictators revering a befuddled socialist megalomaniac’s genius, a sanctimonious iron-will crumbling a superpower, world’s left idolizing a feudal Athena, a benevolent autocrat’s enlightened Tiresias vision and prosperity through the transaction venality of an aspirant Sheikh. Seven decades of Pakistan’s political myth making summarized in less than fifty words.
Every myth, however fabricated, is a reflection of the vicarious aspirations of some segment of Pakistan’s population. Every fallacy has its adherents, defenders and, worst still, aspirants.
That is not to say that none of these seven individuals had the opportunity, inclination or even the unadulterated desire to develop Pakistan into whatever they considered a great country or at least a rude imitation of whatever promised land they had sold, preached or propagandised to their voluntary or corralled cults. All seven decades presented these apotheosised individuals a critical juncture to come face to face with destiny; every one of them failed and did so miserably. From their Pacific-Patch of broken dreams rose only their myths. Every myth, however fabricated, is a reflection of the vicarious aspirations of some segment of Pakistan’s population. Every fallacy has its adherents, defenders and, worst still, aspirants.
Read more: Naval sailors attacked in Baluchistan: another attempt to slow down CPEC?
Why is any of this relevant to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)? In time, this decade will most certainly be referred to as the decade of CPEC; the eighth myth is being fashioned as I write. Allow me the opportunity to de-mythologise the future CPEC and present the inevitable conclusion.
Pakistan : the second fiddle
NDRC began studies which eventually identified the need to develop six (6) distinct corridors for resource access and economic development to fuel China’s future growth. Gwadar-Kashghar is just one (1) corridor out of six (6); the southern link of what eventually became the Silk Road Economic Belt.
First let’s state at the outset that CPEC will be established, it will prosper and will in decades to come become the economic Indus that leads to the confluence of Western and Central Asian regions, eventually connecting them to South Asia too. That said, before the rejoicing begins in Islamabad and Lahore, let’s also state categorically that despite CPEC’s enduring success, Pakistan will remain a minor economic serf, over shadowed, if not engulfed, by its three neighbouring economic and industrial giants. Why will CPEC provide two such contrasting and opposing futures? The answer to that and the summary of the entire history of CPEC is a story of two government institutions. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in China and Planning Commission in Pakistan; the tale of two commissions.
Read more: CPEC will not stir up Indo-Pak Trouble, says China
While drafting the 11th Five Year Plan NDRC’s task force had concluded that China’s rapid double digit growth would falter primarily due to China’s Achilles’ Heel; uninterrupted, sustainable and economically viable access to primary energy and mineral resources. Nothing represents this more than the oft quoted Malacca Dilemma. Resource consumption, the mainstay of China’s growth till then, had to be reformed nationally into resource conservation and then sustainable resource utilisation. Coastal resource access for China’s relatively under developed Central and Western regions was economically unviable and the ‘opening up’ of these regions required land based resource access beyond indigenous resource. NDRC began studies which eventually identified the need to develop six (6) distinct corridors for resource access and economic development to fuel China’s future growth. Gwadar-Kashghar is just one (1) corridor out of six (6); the southern link of what eventually became the Silk Road Economic Belt.
The year 2013 is crucial to the understanding of why Pakistan and China will reap very different returns from CPEC. 2013 saw a change of guard in both China and Pakistan and paths of both commissions also diverged.
As part of the 11th Five Year Plan NDRC proposed the expansion of the West-East pipeline complex and China revamped its Central Asian multilateral organisation, CAREC. In 2005, China and Pakistan’s “Trade & Energy Corridor” entered into the vocabulary at NDRC in China and Planning Commission in Pakistan. Thus, the tango between NDRC & Planning Commission began. By the time China’s 12th Five Year Plan saw daylight Planning Commission’s existing ‘National Trade Corridor Improvement Program’ (NTCIP) had been incorporated into CAREC corridors with an aim to complete by 2018. From 2008 till 2012 Pakistan and China “Trade & Energy Corridor” formed part of a comprehensive NDRC study which was shared with the Pakistan government in early 2013 for approval. So far, so very institutional; so far.
Read full article:
The differing futures of Pakistan and China. Does Beijing get a bigger pie?
Global Village Space |
Saeed Afridi |
The story of Pakistan, since its very incidental inception, has been one of talking about the imminent realization of its potential and latent, sometime erroneously termed dormant, adeptness. Over the past seven decades this story has managed to accumulate legends, even myths, of its own. Every generation, even decade, has its own lore of a suitably sanitized individual who, had he or she been given the time or space, would have propelled Pakistan into the ranks of the global elite. Assassinating a Utopian certainty, Seoul mimicking five year plans, kings and dictators revering a befuddled socialist megalomaniac’s genius, a sanctimonious iron-will crumbling a superpower, world’s left idolizing a feudal Athena, a benevolent autocrat’s enlightened Tiresias vision and prosperity through the transaction venality of an aspirant Sheikh. Seven decades of Pakistan’s political myth making summarized in less than fifty words.
Every myth, however fabricated, is a reflection of the vicarious aspirations of some segment of Pakistan’s population. Every fallacy has its adherents, defenders and, worst still, aspirants.
That is not to say that none of these seven individuals had the opportunity, inclination or even the unadulterated desire to develop Pakistan into whatever they considered a great country or at least a rude imitation of whatever promised land they had sold, preached or propagandised to their voluntary or corralled cults. All seven decades presented these apotheosised individuals a critical juncture to come face to face with destiny; every one of them failed and did so miserably. From their Pacific-Patch of broken dreams rose only their myths. Every myth, however fabricated, is a reflection of the vicarious aspirations of some segment of Pakistan’s population. Every fallacy has its adherents, defenders and, worst still, aspirants.
Read more: Naval sailors attacked in Baluchistan: another attempt to slow down CPEC?
Why is any of this relevant to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)? In time, this decade will most certainly be referred to as the decade of CPEC; the eighth myth is being fashioned as I write. Allow me the opportunity to de-mythologise the future CPEC and present the inevitable conclusion.
Pakistan : the second fiddle
NDRC began studies which eventually identified the need to develop six (6) distinct corridors for resource access and economic development to fuel China’s future growth. Gwadar-Kashghar is just one (1) corridor out of six (6); the southern link of what eventually became the Silk Road Economic Belt.
First let’s state at the outset that CPEC will be established, it will prosper and will in decades to come become the economic Indus that leads to the confluence of Western and Central Asian regions, eventually connecting them to South Asia too. That said, before the rejoicing begins in Islamabad and Lahore, let’s also state categorically that despite CPEC’s enduring success, Pakistan will remain a minor economic serf, over shadowed, if not engulfed, by its three neighbouring economic and industrial giants. Why will CPEC provide two such contrasting and opposing futures? The answer to that and the summary of the entire history of CPEC is a story of two government institutions. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in China and Planning Commission in Pakistan; the tale of two commissions.
Read more: CPEC will not stir up Indo-Pak Trouble, says China
While drafting the 11th Five Year Plan NDRC’s task force had concluded that China’s rapid double digit growth would falter primarily due to China’s Achilles’ Heel; uninterrupted, sustainable and economically viable access to primary energy and mineral resources. Nothing represents this more than the oft quoted Malacca Dilemma. Resource consumption, the mainstay of China’s growth till then, had to be reformed nationally into resource conservation and then sustainable resource utilisation. Coastal resource access for China’s relatively under developed Central and Western regions was economically unviable and the ‘opening up’ of these regions required land based resource access beyond indigenous resource. NDRC began studies which eventually identified the need to develop six (6) distinct corridors for resource access and economic development to fuel China’s future growth. Gwadar-Kashghar is just one (1) corridor out of six (6); the southern link of what eventually became the Silk Road Economic Belt.
The year 2013 is crucial to the understanding of why Pakistan and China will reap very different returns from CPEC. 2013 saw a change of guard in both China and Pakistan and paths of both commissions also diverged.
As part of the 11th Five Year Plan NDRC proposed the expansion of the West-East pipeline complex and China revamped its Central Asian multilateral organisation, CAREC. In 2005, China and Pakistan’s “Trade & Energy Corridor” entered into the vocabulary at NDRC in China and Planning Commission in Pakistan. Thus, the tango between NDRC & Planning Commission began. By the time China’s 12th Five Year Plan saw daylight Planning Commission’s existing ‘National Trade Corridor Improvement Program’ (NTCIP) had been incorporated into CAREC corridors with an aim to complete by 2018. From 2008 till 2012 Pakistan and China “Trade & Energy Corridor” formed part of a comprehensive NDRC study which was shared with the Pakistan government in early 2013 for approval. So far, so very institutional; so far.
Read full article:
The differing futures of Pakistan and China. Does Beijing get a bigger pie?
