maverick1977
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In a couple of weeks we'll have direction. IK likely in power by July or so.
Was talking to a friend last night who works on Wall St and has close connections with the Democratic party establishment and interestingly with Chinese high ups as well in Beijing as well. He felt the establishment here has run out of options and it's pretty much CHECKMATE for the current Pak establishment (that ofcourse includes the PDM circus). And that IK cannot be stopped now. Also the Americans are likely reconciling their strategy to deal with an IK led Pakistan. (Zalmay's recent tweets are reflective of that).
Actually there's a major flaw if you see this entire regime change in the context of establishment vs IK. It's not. In reality it's establishment vs establishment. The establishment has split right down the middle. The 'pragmatists / opportunists' part of the establishment vs the 'nationalists' in the establishment. The first group is mostly a handful of current gens and their serving henchmen vs the bulk of the retirees and the mass of mid to junior level officers. The second group has thrown it's full weight behind IK as THEIR leader after Bajwa's open treachery. This is the first time this has ever happened. There is no previous precedent. Moreover, the vast majority of people stands with the nationalists led by IK. The circumstantial evidence of this ground reality is the CJ's bold stance and successful resistance to overthrow him. Think about it: what makes the CJ so bold as to take on the chief (for all practical purposes)?
After the American inspired regime change the Chinese strategy was STRATEGIC PATIENCE. The Chinese calculation was that the ruling establishment will fall flat on it's face given the American objectives to take Pakistan towards bankruptcy and chaos. And that eventually the Pak ruling establishment will have nowhere to run except Beijing. THAT has just happened after a year's wait! The chief's Chinese visit and now the Chinese FM's remarks are the nails in the coffin of regime change. I feel it's all over for the establishment. It's time for the u-turn! It's big money after that and no money till then! The Chinese FM's current visit is as much a victory lap as is the actual trilateral Afghanistan-centic agenda of the trip.
On the other hand the Saudis are playing along side the Chinese in the wake of the China-led detente with Iran with a new block in the making. Hence not a peep out of NS after his Saudi visit. And no money either from the Saudis till stabilization (which by definition means elections which means an IK sweep and return.)
So HOW would the cookie crumble is the question? Simple. CJ will rule for a Punjab date probabky now by June. May also throw out a no of office holders for contempt through disqualification. IK has already launched the campaign. On the other hand, mil seniors have apparently already turned down any option for emergency or ML in the last CCF. Its reported that the other chiefs (naval, AF, and chairman jc) have gone against the sitting chief apoarently in the discussion on emergency. CJ will call the military in aid of the SC....Hence no more time or options.
The sticking point ofcourse is the mortal fear that is gripping the primary actors of regime change. What hapoens to them after IK's return? This factor can muddy the waters a bit longer but the die is cast and surrender is now inevitable. For the current lot it smacks of Dec 1971 when the water went over the head of the then establishment. The logic of surrender is always rude and cold and it always comes when all options have evaporated. This is the case now.
IK's first term was a partnership with Bajwa as the real boss. IK's 2nd stint will see the rise of the most powerful civilian setup this country has seen since ZAB. However it will have the full backing of the old establishment hands ie the nationalists.
Was talking to a friend last night who works on Wall St and has close connections with the Democratic party establishment and interestingly with Chinese high ups as well in Beijing as well. He felt the establishment here has run out of options and it's pretty much CHECKMATE for the current Pak establishment (that ofcourse includes the PDM circus). And that IK cannot be stopped now. Also the Americans are likely reconciling their strategy to deal with an IK led Pakistan. (Zalmay's recent tweets are reflective of that).
Actually there's a major flaw if you see this entire regime change in the context of establishment vs IK. It's not. In reality it's establishment vs establishment. The establishment has split right down the middle. The 'pragmatists / opportunists' part of the establishment vs the 'nationalists' in the establishment. The first group is mostly a handful of current gens and their serving henchmen vs the bulk of the retirees and the mass of mid to junior level officers. The second group has thrown it's full weight behind IK as THEIR leader after Bajwa's open treachery. This is the first time this has ever happened. There is no previous precedent. Moreover, the vast majority of people stands with the nationalists led by IK. The circumstantial evidence of this ground reality is the CJ's bold stance and successful resistance to overthrow him. Think about it: what makes the CJ so bold as to take on the chief (for all practical purposes)?
After the American inspired regime change the Chinese strategy was STRATEGIC PATIENCE. The Chinese calculation was that the ruling establishment will fall flat on it's face given the American objectives to take Pakistan towards bankruptcy and chaos. And that eventually the Pak ruling establishment will have nowhere to run except Beijing. THAT has just happened after a year's wait! The chief's Chinese visit and now the Chinese FM's remarks are the nails in the coffin of regime change. I feel it's all over for the establishment. It's time for the u-turn! It's big money after that and no money till then! The Chinese FM's current visit is as much a victory lap as is the actual trilateral Afghanistan-centic agenda of the trip.
On the other hand the Saudis are playing along side the Chinese in the wake of the China-led detente with Iran with a new block in the making. Hence not a peep out of NS after his Saudi visit. And no money either from the Saudis till stabilization (which by definition means elections which means an IK sweep and return.)
So HOW would the cookie crumble is the question? Simple. CJ will rule for a Punjab date probabky now by June. May also throw out a no of office holders for contempt through disqualification. IK has already launched the campaign. On the other hand, mil seniors have apparently already turned down any option for emergency or ML in the last CCF. Its reported that the other chiefs (naval, AF, and chairman jc) have gone against the sitting chief apoarently in the discussion on emergency. CJ will call the military in aid of the SC....Hence no more time or options.
The sticking point ofcourse is the mortal fear that is gripping the primary actors of regime change. What hapoens to them after IK's return? This factor can muddy the waters a bit longer but the die is cast and surrender is now inevitable. For the current lot it smacks of Dec 1971 when the water went over the head of the then establishment. The logic of surrender is always rude and cold and it always comes when all options have evaporated. This is the case now.
IK's first term was a partnership with Bajwa as the real boss. IK's 2nd stint will see the rise of the most powerful civilian setup this country has seen since ZAB. However it will have the full backing of the old establishment hands ie the nationalists.
