The clock is ticking for USA....

[Hafizzz]

China overtakes Japan as No.2 economy: FX chief
China overtakes Japan as No.2 economy: FX chief - Yahoo! Canada News

China has overtaken Japan to become the world's second-largest economy, the fruit of three decades of rapid growth that has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.

Depending on how fast its exchange rate rises, China is on course to overtake the United States and vault into the No.1 spot sometime around 2025, according to projections by the World Bank, Goldman Sachs and others.

Soon USA will have to move over for China to take over the title "World's largest economy". LOL

 

[somebozo]

Soon USA will have to move over for China to take over the title "World's largest economy". LOL

The disparity between USA and China is more than 50% in economic volume so there is still a long way to go for china unless its economy grows by 100% magically. Secondly chinese economy is largely trade where as american one is highly intellactual and innovate. The dream of China replacing USA is still far feteched but it could play into some strategic leverage soon. Particularly lifting of arms embargo on china.

 

[CardSharp]

The disparity between USA and China is more than 50% in economic volume so there is still a long way to go for china unless its economy grows by 100% magically. Secondly chinese economy is largely trade where as american one is highly intellactual and innovate. The dream of China replacing USA is still far feteched but it could play into some strategic leverage soon. Particularly lifting of arms embargo on china.

Why do you think this?

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

China -- trade

US -- services


by the way, China still has a ways to go --but they have done extremely well. Everything from their comparitive and absolute advantages to their currency regimes (with respect to dollar) and low labour costs (which actually are now on the rise) --all have been in China's favour.

 

[CardSharp]

The disparity between USA and China is more than 50% in economic volume so there is still a long way to go for china unless its economy grows by 100% magically. Secondly chinese economy is largely trade where as american one is highly intellactual and innovate. The dream of China replacing USA is still far feteched but it could play into some strategic leverage soon. Particularly lifting of arms embargo on china.

China -- trade

US -- services


by the way, China still has a ways to go --but they have done extremely well. Everything from their comparitive and absolute advantages to their currency regimes (with respect to dollar) and low labour costs (which actually are now on the rise) --all have been in China's favour.

These are the same easy answers everyone gives who don't care to look closely at the complexities of both economies. I'm sure Chauism can elaborate.

 

[chauism]

The disparity between USA and China is more than 50% in economic volume so there is still a long way to go for china unless its economy grows by 100% magically. Secondly chinese economy is largely trade where as american one is highly intellactual and innovate. The dream of China replacing USA is still far feteched but it could play into some strategic leverage soon. Particularly lifting of arms embargo on china.

China's export only is accounted for less than 25% of its total GDP, and its volume is almost the same as US(1.2 trillion vs 1.07 trillion). Well, export is a big part of its economy, but it is not that big. There are many countries like South Korea and Germany have bigger shares of its GDP depend on export.

 

[Speaker]

What has the title got to do with the news? Will becoming No.2 suddenly make them a third-world country? Or will that stop them from influencing world politics?

 

[Markus]

Where China is today, it has surpassed the combined GDP of top 3 US states. But still a long way to go. Chinese strength lies in its manufacturing ability, its needs to increase its focus on the services sector.

 

[CardSharp]

Where China is today, it has surpassed the combined GDP of top 3 US states. But still a long way to go. Chinese strength lies in its manufacturing ability, its needs to increase its focus on the services sector.

There's no service to be given when there no money to be spent.

Well I don't mean there is NO money but the Yuan is depressed and Chinese people have a savings rate of 40%+. Frugal people we are...

 

[Chinaownseverything]

The disparity between USA and China is more than 50% in economic volume so there is still a long way to go for china unless its economy grows by 100% magically. Secondly chinese economy is largely trade where as american one is highly intellactual and innovate. The dream of China replacing USA is still far feteched but it could play into some strategic leverage soon. Particularly lifting of arms embargo on china.

Who says the Chinese cannot innovate? The chinese are doing things in science that the USA cannot comprehend. China is breaking USA records using methods that USA researchers cannot figure out.

Chinese Researchers Tap Quantum Noise to Generate Randomness at Record Rates | Popular Science

The method is a bit mind-bending, but still more impressive is the output: 300 megabits per second of random data, blowing a 100-megabit record set by American scientists using a different method earlier this month clean out of the water. Which means the U.S. will now have to top the Chinese to stay ahead in the encryption game, setting up a competitive back-and-forth that should make true Cold Warriors wistful for the good old days.

DailyTech - China Teleports Photons 10 Miles, Surpasses U.S./European Record

China Teleports Photons 10 Miles, Surpasses U.S./European Record

Chinese-made one trillion ops per second desktop computer launched - People's Daily Online

China's first desktop supercomputer that can perform over 1 trillion calculations per second, "Yitian," was formally launched on March 2.

The computer, developed by the Inspur Group, is the size of normal desktop computer, with a maximum computing speed of four trillion operations per second, equal to 40 servers or 200 personal computers. Its cost is one-fifth of a traditional high-performance computing system retailing at around 50,000 yuan. Its launch will advance China's scientific research computation's entrance into the "popularization era of computing speeds over one trillion operations per second."

 

[sunny001]

Who says the Chinese cannot innovate? The chinese are doing things in science that the USA cannot comprehend. China is breaking USA records using methods that USA researchers cannot figure out.

Chinese Researchers Tap Quantum Noise to Generate Randomness at Record Rates | Popular Science

The method is a bit mind-bending, but still more impressive is the output: 300 megabits per second of random data, blowing a 100-megabit record set by American scientists using a different method earlier this month clean out of the water. Which means the U.S. will now have to top the Chinese to stay ahead in the encryption game, setting up a competitive back-and-forth that should make true Cold Warriors wistful for the good old days.

DailyTech - China Teleports Photons 10 Miles, Surpasses U.S./European Record

China Teleports Photons 10 Miles, Surpasses U.S./European Record

Chinese-made one trillion ops per second desktop computer launched - People's Daily Online

China's first desktop supercomputer that can perform over 1 trillion calculations per second, "Yitian," was formally launched on March 2.

The computer, developed by the Inspur Group, is the size of normal desktop computer, with a maximum computing speed of four trillion operations per second, equal to 40 servers or 200 personal computers. Its cost is one-fifth of a traditional high-performance computing system retailing at around 50,000 yuan. Its launch will advance China's scientific research computation's entrance into the "popularization era of computing speeds over one trillion operations per second."

This is all well and good. I hope China will succeed in everything they set their mind to. But innovation is more than building the best computer. Innovation is difficult to achieve in a communist government or a single party system, but definitely not impossible, anyone can do anything if they set their mind to it. I have read a research paper about this, where they claim Innovation is more natural to democracies, where people can have opposing theories. It's bit difficult in communist countries where everyone are forced to think a certain way.

 

[Chinaownseverything]

Innovation is difficult to achieve in a communist government or a single party system.

Innovation has nothing to do with democracy, The Soviet Union, Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan etc.... all managed to innovate technologies that were superior to their democratic counterparts.

 

[CardSharp]

This is all well and good. I hope China will succeed in everything they set their mind to. But innovation is more than building the best computer. Innovation is difficult to achieve in a communist government or a single party system, but definitely not impossible, anyone can do anything if they set their mind to it. I have read a research paper about this, where they claim Innovation is more natural to democracies, where people can have opposing theories. It's bit difficult in communist countries where everyone are forced to think a certain way.

lol. First, the experiment was about generating random numbers through quantum uncertainty for use in cryptography. Not about building the best computers.

Second, they claim Innovation is more natural to democracies. I suspect this paper (can you post a link? I'd like to read it, thanks) is more a politically motivated opinion piece rather than statistical analysis or a testable hypothesis.

This is the same BS that America says about soldiers "Only free democracies can produce brave soldiers" (there's a whole greek influence there too), but we know this to be wrong. Look at the Janissaries of the Ottomans, the Marmalukes of Egypt, or better yet the Wehrmacht and SS of germany.

These German soldiers weren't from a free or democratic nation and yet they absolutely crushed the Americans and British when all things like air-support, amount of armor were equal. (funnily the only people who were a match for them were red army soldiers from the "unfree" nation of the USSR)

Americans don't like to admit it but the German soldier consistently beat the American soldier on a soldier vs soldier level.


Fighting Power: German and U.S. Army Performance, 1939-1945 by Van Creveld Martin
Fighting Power: German and U.S. Army Performance, 1939-1945: Amazon.ca: Van Creveld Martin L, Martin L. Van Crevald: Books

 

[chauism]

This is all well and good. I hope China will succeed in everything they set their mind to. But innovation is more than building the best computer. Innovation is difficult to achieve in a communist government or a single party system, but definitely not impossible, anyone can do anything if they set their mind to it. I have read a research paper about this, where they claim Innovation is more natural to democracies, where people can have opposing theories. It's bit difficult in communist countries where everyone are forced to think a certain way.

Even in China's authoritarian government, there are fractions among the CCP. There are even many debates and conflicts within the Polibureau itself. No one is forcing anyone to think in certain way. People always hold different ideas, but just some times when people try to act out some of their ideas that will jeapodize the government stability, then there will be trouble.

Authoritarianism does not apply in the fields of academical science and engineering, as there will not be any threats to the legitimacy of the government, so there is not restrain. There is no any evidence that can prove that there is correlation between innovations and the system of government. Remember USSR? They had much rigid authoritarian government system than China has right now, and yet during their regime there were many innovations in many fields from USSR.

 

[whocares]

yep, China is proceeding very ambitiously. I am interested to see where the bottlenecks in GDP output finally emerge and why.

My hunch is that government officials in authoritarian regimes manage to hit some or the other policy blunder economically that makes for lower trend growth than an efficient capitalist setup.

I don't know enough to suggest what kind of things could go wrong, but at the very least industrialization and infrastructure development to average japanese levels looks possible.

The one advantage of China over Japan and USSR in challenging the US is the vast amount of elite talent they can develop (due to the 1.3B ppl). Its possible that they could outstrip US in research breakthroughs. Engaging the US on cutting edge commercial enterpreneurship is less likely due to the economic structure though.