The Afghan endgame promises to be an intriguing affair. Anyone following the events of the War on Terror closely knows that the War on Terror is just a pretext for much greater things in the region. In the Afghan endgame, Afghanistan will be sharply divided along ethnic lines: North Afghanistan will be dominated by non-Pashtun elements, whereas the South will be dominated by Pashtun elements. A deal will be brokered where the Taliban will (be allowed to) administer the regions in the South, & will be asked not to interfere in the administration of the non-Pashtun elements in the North. That is if the US plans for the Afghan endgame go according to plan, & the Taliban is convinced to join the negotiating table... As of now, the Taliban are not interested in peace talks, & the only one that is interested is the US.
The US & NATO Forces have all but given up tackling the situation in Southern Afghanistan, & have focused on their efforts to get rid of insurgent elements in North Afghanistan trying to overthrow the present regime. The aim of this activity is to leave as little obstacles in North Afghanistan for the current regime as possible. The Haqqani network, who are accused of being ISI proxies will not be tolerated, as they present an imminent threat to the Karzai regime in North & Central Afghanistan, hence an imminent threat to the US interests in the post 2014 scenario. Unfortunately for the US, the Haqqani network will still maintain considerable control in North & Central Afghanistan post 2014 in the Afghan endgame.
What are the future prospects of Afghanistan 2014? Afghanistan will be the ultimate prize for many countries in the region, because of its strategic location, & the 'opportunities' its location provides; along with its untapped resources (to a lesser degree), & the potential contracting options for companies.
India hit the jackpot when it won the iron ore project South West of Kabul. While Indian engineers successfully managed to create a road in Nimroz connecting it to Iran, Nimroz is a stronghold of the Taliban, which could turn into a huge problem for India. The poor infrastructure from Bamiyan to Nimroz is another big problem, along with the security concerns in that region as well. India has collaborated its efforts by working to develop the Chabahar Port in Iran. The Chabahar Port serves the purpose of linking Afghanistan/Central Asia with India, as well as giving India access to Iran's oil reserves. But the Chabahar Port itself is operating at a very low capacity (2.5 MPTA), & is located in the Sistan-Balochistan area of Iran, which is rife with insurgency & terrorism violence. India is also planning on building an underwater pipeline to Iran, utilizing the resources from the Straits of Hormuz & Iran's gas reserves, although there isn't much development on that front.
In terms of the competing IP-I/C & TAPI pipelines, the IP line has been complete on the Iranian side, whereas the pipeline is under construction on the Pakistani side. It is expected to be constructed by 2013 & operational by 2014. The TAPI pipeline taps the resources of the Caspian Sea, passes through Turkmenistan, through North & Southern Afghanistan into Balochistan, Pakistan & onwards into India. While Turkmenistan is free from terrorism, the Taliban in the South & the other insurgents in Northern Afghanistan will have to be convinced in the Afghan end game to let the pipelines pass into Balochistan. And in Balochistan, Pakistan will have to contain the Baloch insurgency. All in all, it is a project destined to fail. If the Baloch insurgency in Pakistan is able to be contained, & there isn't too much problem from the insurgents in Sistan Balochistan in Iran, the IP pipeline will be successful. But with Iran's increasing isolation on the world stage, both the IP pipeline & the Chabahar port can become risky investments for Pakistan & India respectively.
Afghanistan is eventually, the ultimate prize for both the US & China; for China to expand its footprint in Central Asia, & for the US to contain China from doing that. The oil & other untapped natural resources in Afghanistan are only a small part of the great game, the biggest advantage Afghanistan has is its strategic location, & the 'options & opportunities' it presents for countries.
Pakistan is an important part of all of this as well. Like Afghanistan, while Pakistan's untapped natural resources are important for potential contracting businesses, it is only a small part of the great game. Pakistan is an important piece of the puzzle to the endgame in Afghanistan, & can help China get access to Central Asia & the Middle East, as well as the energy corridor of the Straits of Hormuz. The KKH & the Gwadar Port are important initiatives for achieving these goals. While the Gwadar Port is operational, & is connected to Karachi & Port Qasim through the Makran Coastal Highway; it is not connected to the KKH, hampered by poor road infrastructure through Balochistan & a low level insurgency. If Pakistan is able to control the insurgency, & is able to create adequate road infrastructure in Balochistan, connecting the Gwadar Port to the KKH, this would result in the increase of China's footprint in the region.
All in all, the Afghan endgame promises to be a very intriguing affair.
The US & NATO Forces have all but given up tackling the situation in Southern Afghanistan, & have focused on their efforts to get rid of insurgent elements in North Afghanistan trying to overthrow the present regime. The aim of this activity is to leave as little obstacles in North Afghanistan for the current regime as possible. The Haqqani network, who are accused of being ISI proxies will not be tolerated, as they present an imminent threat to the Karzai regime in North & Central Afghanistan, hence an imminent threat to the US interests in the post 2014 scenario. Unfortunately for the US, the Haqqani network will still maintain considerable control in North & Central Afghanistan post 2014 in the Afghan endgame.
What are the future prospects of Afghanistan 2014? Afghanistan will be the ultimate prize for many countries in the region, because of its strategic location, & the 'opportunities' its location provides; along with its untapped resources (to a lesser degree), & the potential contracting options for companies.
India hit the jackpot when it won the iron ore project South West of Kabul. While Indian engineers successfully managed to create a road in Nimroz connecting it to Iran, Nimroz is a stronghold of the Taliban, which could turn into a huge problem for India. The poor infrastructure from Bamiyan to Nimroz is another big problem, along with the security concerns in that region as well. India has collaborated its efforts by working to develop the Chabahar Port in Iran. The Chabahar Port serves the purpose of linking Afghanistan/Central Asia with India, as well as giving India access to Iran's oil reserves. But the Chabahar Port itself is operating at a very low capacity (2.5 MPTA), & is located in the Sistan-Balochistan area of Iran, which is rife with insurgency & terrorism violence. India is also planning on building an underwater pipeline to Iran, utilizing the resources from the Straits of Hormuz & Iran's gas reserves, although there isn't much development on that front.
In terms of the competing IP-I/C & TAPI pipelines, the IP line has been complete on the Iranian side, whereas the pipeline is under construction on the Pakistani side. It is expected to be constructed by 2013 & operational by 2014. The TAPI pipeline taps the resources of the Caspian Sea, passes through Turkmenistan, through North & Southern Afghanistan into Balochistan, Pakistan & onwards into India. While Turkmenistan is free from terrorism, the Taliban in the South & the other insurgents in Northern Afghanistan will have to be convinced in the Afghan end game to let the pipelines pass into Balochistan. And in Balochistan, Pakistan will have to contain the Baloch insurgency. All in all, it is a project destined to fail. If the Baloch insurgency in Pakistan is able to be contained, & there isn't too much problem from the insurgents in Sistan Balochistan in Iran, the IP pipeline will be successful. But with Iran's increasing isolation on the world stage, both the IP pipeline & the Chabahar port can become risky investments for Pakistan & India respectively.
Afghanistan is eventually, the ultimate prize for both the US & China; for China to expand its footprint in Central Asia, & for the US to contain China from doing that. The oil & other untapped natural resources in Afghanistan are only a small part of the great game, the biggest advantage Afghanistan has is its strategic location, & the 'options & opportunities' it presents for countries.
Pakistan is an important part of all of this as well. Like Afghanistan, while Pakistan's untapped natural resources are important for potential contracting businesses, it is only a small part of the great game. Pakistan is an important piece of the puzzle to the endgame in Afghanistan, & can help China get access to Central Asia & the Middle East, as well as the energy corridor of the Straits of Hormuz. The KKH & the Gwadar Port are important initiatives for achieving these goals. While the Gwadar Port is operational, & is connected to Karachi & Port Qasim through the Makran Coastal Highway; it is not connected to the KKH, hampered by poor road infrastructure through Balochistan & a low level insurgency. If Pakistan is able to control the insurgency, & is able to create adequate road infrastructure in Balochistan, connecting the Gwadar Port to the KKH, this would result in the increase of China's footprint in the region.
All in all, the Afghan endgame promises to be a very intriguing affair.
