Tesla China sets sights on Shanghai Megafactory construction next

[beijingwalker]

Tesla China sets sights on Shanghai Megafactory construction next​

ByMaria Merano
Posted on September 4, 2023
Tesla China plans to start the construction of the Megafactory in Shanghai soon, according to President Allan Wang at the International Trade in Services Fair.

The Shanghai Megafactory’s construction is scheduled to start by the end of the third quarter. Since it is already September, Tesla China may start building the local Megafactory over the next few weeks.

“We expect to start building the Megafactory for energy storage products in the near future, and the products will mainly be used for export,” President Wang said.

The Tesla Megafactory in Shanghai’s Lingang area will likely export the company’s Megapack storage batteries to the same locations where it exports Giga Shanghai’s electric vehicles. The U.S.-based company aims to start production at the Shanghai Megafactory by Q2 2024. Tesla’s estimated initial production capacity for the China-based Megapack factory is 10,000 units per year or about 40GWh.

On April 9, 2023, Tesla signed an agreement with Shanghai’s Lingang special area administration to build the Megafactory. A few weeks later, on April 20, 2023, Tesla revealed that its Energy sector’s battery storage deployments increased by 360% year-over-year to 3.9 GWh. The company credited its Megafactory in Lathrop, California, for the significant spike in deployments.

“Energy storage deployments increased by 360% YoY in Q1 to 3.9 GWh, the highest level of deployments we have achieved due to the ongoing Megafactory ramp. The ramp of our 40 GWh Megapack factory in Lathrop, California has been successful, with still more room to reach full capacity,” wrote Tesla in its Q1 2023 Update Letter. “This Megapack factory will be the first of many. We recently announced our second 40 GWh Megafactory, this time in Shanghai, with construction starting later this year.”

Tesla China sets sights on Shanghai Megafactory construction next

Tesla China plans to start the construction of the Megafactory in Shanghai soon, according to President Allan Wang.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Tesla Megapacks Should Generate $400 Billion per Year in 2030 and $1 Trillion per year in 2040 | NextBigFuture.com

China is expected to add 95 to 120 gigawatts (GW) of solar power in 2023. China added 87 GW of new solar power into operation in 2022 making the total

www.nextbigfuture.com

Tesla Megapacks Should Generate $400 Billion per Year in 2030 and $1 Trillion per year in 2040​

China is expected to add 95 to 120 gigawatts (GW) of solar power in 2023. China added 87 GW of new solar power into operation in 2022 making the total installed capacity to 392.6 GW at the end of 2022. China probably already added 30-40 GW in 2023 to bring its total installed solar to 420 GW and 520 GW at the end of 2023. The world installed 268 GW of new solar capacity in 2022, with annual installations expected to hit 315-350 GW in 2023.

Global installed solar generation capacity reached about 1.1 TW in 2022. Total global wind power capacity is up to 837 GW at the end of 2022 with 78 GW added in 2022. This is one fifteenth of Tesla projection of a final total of 30 TW of solar and wind. There should be about 6-8 TW of solar and wind by 2030 and 16-18 TW of solar and wind by 2040.

We are adding solar at about half of where Tesla expects the world to plateau at adding 610 GW/year of solar and 402 GW/year of wind.

Tesla projects the world will need 2.3 TWh per year of megapack fixed storage or 60 Lathrop-sized megapack factories. The world needs about 6 Megapack fixed storage factories to supply the conversion of the global electrical grid. We will need these six Megapack for grid factories by 2028-2032.

As the electric truck and car market (cybertruck and Semi get up to full scale) get up scale there will be a need for another 30 or so Megapack factories. We are at 10% of that final level of annual EVs currently and will get to 20-40% of annual EVs in the next 3-6 years. This will mean the Vehicle driven demand for Megapacks will scale to 10-15 Lathrop Megapack factories over the next 3-6 years. This will mean adding 2-3 Tesla Megapack factories each year starting in 2025 through 2040.

Tesla and its competitors will need to have 30 Megapack equivalent factories by around 2030-2032. If Tesla makes 20 of those Megapack factories it will cost $8 billion in Capex for initial construction and Tesla would be making about $400-500 billion per year in revenue from those factories around 2030. This will scale to $1 trillion per year by 2040. The additional Megapacks in the 2030s will be for the home, commercial building and planes and ships markets. Tesla could have a relatively captive market for Megapacks used for truck megacharging if Tesla dominates with Semi and Cybertruck as I predict. Cybertruck are mostly a North American market product and Tesla has 60-70% market share. It is more difficult to make competitive heavy electric truck technology than it is to make adequate electric cars. The 20-30% advantage in range and efficiency that Tesla has in passenger vehicles will translate to a 30-50% advantage for large trucks.

Tesla Lathrop megapack factories cost about $400 million each and produce about $20-25 billion each year in revenue.

 

[beijingwalker]

This is why Tesla's future is in China

The future of Tesla is in China

China is one of the top markets for EVs in the world.

www.theverge.com