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While there are fears that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan may impact the security situation in the Kashmir Valley, there are also apprehensions that this could escalate terror-related violence in the Union Territory.
In South Block, one of the top officers is tuned into a hotly discussed debate on Taliban takeover of Kabul. The worry is palpable in both North and South Blocks, the power centres which control the defence forces and internal security, both now a key focus as the security forces in Jammu and Kashmir are keenly following development in Afghanistan following capture of Kabul by Taliban.
North and South Blocks are parts of the Raisina Hill Complex and flank the Rashtrapati Bhawan on either side. The South Block houses the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and the Ministry of Defence (MoD) while in the North Block, the top offices include the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and the Ministry of Finance (MoF).
There are already indications that things could heat up south of Pir Panjal and key infiltration routes in the Kashmir Valley where even a more stringent vigil has been mounted.
While there are fears that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan may impact the security situation in the Kashmir Valley, there are also apprehensions that this could escalate terror-related violence in the Union Territory. However, the security officials in the field say that there is little chance of Taliban infiltrating into Kashmir as there is robust anti-infiltration grid at Line of Control (LoC).
GOVERNMENT’S ASSESSMENT
The officer following the Taliban development said, “My assessment is that it won’t impact even one per cent in the Kashmir Valley.”
Elaborating his assessment further, the officer said, “The situation is not the same as it was 20 years ago for the Taliban. But Indian Army has also honed its skills. Our personnel are well-trained and well-equipped for the situation."
“There is border fence. It is not that we are not ruling out possibility of handful of Taliban infiltrating. They will be tackled the same way as Pakistani terrorists. But it is not that suddenly 5,000 of them will appear at the borders,” the officer said.
“The aim is to thwart them in their tracks. Earlier, any infiltration would take the Pakistani terrorists two days. Now, it takes them as many as two weeks because bunkers have been strategically placed,” the officer said.
A WORRY
The next big worry is that there could be a weapon upgrade with the Pakistan Army and terrorist groups getting their hands on huge supplies of weapons including stinger missiles captured by the Taliban from the Afghan National Army which surrendered recently.
The officer said, “It is not easy to bring in such heavy weapons without detections. Even in the 1990s, the weapons were carried on ponies. Now, this is near-impossible to bring in such large and heavy equipment with forces manning the LoC and the BSF [Border Security Force] at the IB [international border] without detection.”
“The threat of a terrorist using a stinger or left behind anti-aircraft gun to shoot down a plane is still a faraway possibility. The Taliban fighters have moved on from the AK-47 to American M4 carbines and M16 rifles with their many gadgets attached from expensive optics to laser sights and flashlights,” the officer said.
In another officer’s assessment, Pakistan could manage to lay its hands on some of the 2,000 armoured vehicles, including Humvees, 40 aircraft including the UH-60 Black Hawks, attack helicopters and ScanEagle small drones but a senior officer in the Military Intelligence (MI) said it was too premature to say anything as situation was fluid.
RECENT TERROR-RELATED DEVELOPMENTS
The recent intelligence reports indicate that post-FATF (Financial Action Task Force, an inter-governmental body based in France) review of Pakistan’s handling of terrorism, at least 25 terrorists have managed to successfully infiltrate. There has been reasonable success in their detection and them being neutralised.
The routes could be Poonch-Rajouri or North Kashmir. Both the areas have seen encounters taking place. The field commanders seem confidant of the situation.
After recent spate of encounters in Kashmir Valley, a police officer who recently was awarded gallantry medal told India Today, “Terrorists may be five feet or seven feet, if he enters the territory, he will be killed by the bullet.”
A top officer in Jammu and Kashmir echoed the sentiment saying the worry was much more in New Delhi than in Jammu and Kashmir. There have been instances of target killings of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) workers and political leaders in the Kashmir Valley. The sustained pressure needs to be kept on terror groups.
Several of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) operatives from Pakistan infiltrated months before the Afghanistan situation. The intelligence agencies anticipate that the terror-related violence may increase in months to come, when the Union Territory prepares for its first assembly election since its newly acquired status.
SITUATION FLUID, VIGIL STRICT
While the situation is brewing in Afghanistan, the possibility of Taliban infiltrating could be very minimal, said another top officer. Not all agencies seem to concur with the assessment though. One officer from security grid said with so many fighters at hand, there was a possibility that at least few thousands could be spared for Kashmir. That would spell trouble.
However, the key assessment is that there may not be any imminent repercussion though preparations are underway to brace for the worst. The field officers feel the impact could be on a different level and local militants could be emboldened carrying sensational attacks on security forces.
There are already indications that things could heat up south of Pir Panjal and key infiltration routes in the Kashmir Valley where even a more stringent vigil has been mounted.
The security apparatus has been reviewed. The worry is to pin down militancy to take out its head in Kashmir and escalate after the victory of Taliban in Afghanistan. There are about 80 new terror recruits.
OTHER TERROR OUTFITS EMBOLDENED
Several factions of people who have been alienated from the recent developments in Jammu and Kashmir including the historical abrogation of Article 370 seem to be almost joyous in anticipation of Taliban fighters marching towards Kashmir Valley, said an officer in North Block who did not wish to be quoted.
The officer further said that it was an open secret that there had been ties among the terror groups such as Jaish and Lashkar with al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
In the Pulwama chargesheet of the deadliest terror attack of February 2019, in which 40 CRPF soldiers lost their lives, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) mentioned that the main accused Umar Farooq trained at the Sangin camp in the Helmand province of Afghanistan.
A LINK
The NIA says close to 1,000 Pakistani terrorists are trained at these al-Qaeda and Taliban camps. Incidentally, Helmand has a history of being among first provinces to come back under control of the Taliban after Nato operation.
Three years before the attack, Umar Farooq was training in terror camp in May-June 2016 in Helmand and subsequently in September 2016. Also, a well-known fact that slain terrorist Umar Farooq was the son of Ibrahim Athar, one of the five terrorists who had hijacked the Indian Airlines IC 814 in December 1999 and top JeM terrorist liaisoning with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
The Pakistan Army which has been indulging in proxy war had sent in the Afghan fighters into the Kashmir Valley where few were killed and rest apprehended and returned to their country after their sentence was over. Sources have said that the Afghan terrorists are completely radicalised and would not surrender in encounters.
WHAT DEFENCE STAFF CHIEF SAID?
Speaking at an event, “The India-US Partnership: Securing the 21st Century”, in Delhi, Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat said, “We were concerned about how terrorist activity from Afghanistan could overflow into India and so to that extent our contingency planning had been ongoing and we are prepared for that.”
“Timeline has surprised us because we were anticipating this to happen, may be, a couple of months down the line. But it is pretty much the same — same Taliban that was there 20 years ago,” General Bipin Rawat said at the event organised by think-tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF).
THE SECURITY REVIEW
On Monday as Union Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla carried out review, the Taliban issue as a security concern came up prominently for discussion. While the officers were told to avoid giving a press statement on the issue, as the Indian government is yet to take a stand on developments in Afghanistan.
The situation along the borders also figured prominently in the meeting especially in the wake of Taliban taking over the control of Afghanistan. The security situation was reviewed with additional bunkers and equipment to block any infiltration.
Security agencies sound confident for the challenges posed by the Taliban and Pakistan militant outfits supported by the Taliban. However, the worry seems palpable. The Centre has stressed for security forces to maintain very high alert on both Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB) to meet with any threat, a source told India Today.
The measures to counter increasing drone droppings along the borders were also discussed. In some of the border areas, anti-drone equipment have been installed while in other areas this will be done shortly.
A senior officer in Indian Army said, “Situation is fluid. It may be too early to make assessment. For now it is wait and watch.”
www.indiatoday.in
In South Block, one of the top officers is tuned into a hotly discussed debate on Taliban takeover of Kabul. The worry is palpable in both North and South Blocks, the power centres which control the defence forces and internal security, both now a key focus as the security forces in Jammu and Kashmir are keenly following development in Afghanistan following capture of Kabul by Taliban.
North and South Blocks are parts of the Raisina Hill Complex and flank the Rashtrapati Bhawan on either side. The South Block houses the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and the Ministry of Defence (MoD) while in the North Block, the top offices include the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and the Ministry of Finance (MoF).
There are already indications that things could heat up south of Pir Panjal and key infiltration routes in the Kashmir Valley where even a more stringent vigil has been mounted.
While there are fears that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan may impact the security situation in the Kashmir Valley, there are also apprehensions that this could escalate terror-related violence in the Union Territory. However, the security officials in the field say that there is little chance of Taliban infiltrating into Kashmir as there is robust anti-infiltration grid at Line of Control (LoC).
GOVERNMENT’S ASSESSMENT
The officer following the Taliban development said, “My assessment is that it won’t impact even one per cent in the Kashmir Valley.”
Elaborating his assessment further, the officer said, “The situation is not the same as it was 20 years ago for the Taliban. But Indian Army has also honed its skills. Our personnel are well-trained and well-equipped for the situation."
“There is border fence. It is not that we are not ruling out possibility of handful of Taliban infiltrating. They will be tackled the same way as Pakistani terrorists. But it is not that suddenly 5,000 of them will appear at the borders,” the officer said.
“The aim is to thwart them in their tracks. Earlier, any infiltration would take the Pakistani terrorists two days. Now, it takes them as many as two weeks because bunkers have been strategically placed,” the officer said.
A WORRY
The next big worry is that there could be a weapon upgrade with the Pakistan Army and terrorist groups getting their hands on huge supplies of weapons including stinger missiles captured by the Taliban from the Afghan National Army which surrendered recently.
The officer said, “It is not easy to bring in such heavy weapons without detections. Even in the 1990s, the weapons were carried on ponies. Now, this is near-impossible to bring in such large and heavy equipment with forces manning the LoC and the BSF [Border Security Force] at the IB [international border] without detection.”
“The threat of a terrorist using a stinger or left behind anti-aircraft gun to shoot down a plane is still a faraway possibility. The Taliban fighters have moved on from the AK-47 to American M4 carbines and M16 rifles with their many gadgets attached from expensive optics to laser sights and flashlights,” the officer said.
In another officer’s assessment, Pakistan could manage to lay its hands on some of the 2,000 armoured vehicles, including Humvees, 40 aircraft including the UH-60 Black Hawks, attack helicopters and ScanEagle small drones but a senior officer in the Military Intelligence (MI) said it was too premature to say anything as situation was fluid.
RECENT TERROR-RELATED DEVELOPMENTS
The recent intelligence reports indicate that post-FATF (Financial Action Task Force, an inter-governmental body based in France) review of Pakistan’s handling of terrorism, at least 25 terrorists have managed to successfully infiltrate. There has been reasonable success in their detection and them being neutralised.
The routes could be Poonch-Rajouri or North Kashmir. Both the areas have seen encounters taking place. The field commanders seem confidant of the situation.
After recent spate of encounters in Kashmir Valley, a police officer who recently was awarded gallantry medal told India Today, “Terrorists may be five feet or seven feet, if he enters the territory, he will be killed by the bullet.”
A top officer in Jammu and Kashmir echoed the sentiment saying the worry was much more in New Delhi than in Jammu and Kashmir. There have been instances of target killings of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) workers and political leaders in the Kashmir Valley. The sustained pressure needs to be kept on terror groups.
Several of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) operatives from Pakistan infiltrated months before the Afghanistan situation. The intelligence agencies anticipate that the terror-related violence may increase in months to come, when the Union Territory prepares for its first assembly election since its newly acquired status.
SITUATION FLUID, VIGIL STRICT
While the situation is brewing in Afghanistan, the possibility of Taliban infiltrating could be very minimal, said another top officer. Not all agencies seem to concur with the assessment though. One officer from security grid said with so many fighters at hand, there was a possibility that at least few thousands could be spared for Kashmir. That would spell trouble.
However, the key assessment is that there may not be any imminent repercussion though preparations are underway to brace for the worst. The field officers feel the impact could be on a different level and local militants could be emboldened carrying sensational attacks on security forces.
There are already indications that things could heat up south of Pir Panjal and key infiltration routes in the Kashmir Valley where even a more stringent vigil has been mounted.
The security apparatus has been reviewed. The worry is to pin down militancy to take out its head in Kashmir and escalate after the victory of Taliban in Afghanistan. There are about 80 new terror recruits.
OTHER TERROR OUTFITS EMBOLDENED
Several factions of people who have been alienated from the recent developments in Jammu and Kashmir including the historical abrogation of Article 370 seem to be almost joyous in anticipation of Taliban fighters marching towards Kashmir Valley, said an officer in North Block who did not wish to be quoted.
The officer further said that it was an open secret that there had been ties among the terror groups such as Jaish and Lashkar with al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
In the Pulwama chargesheet of the deadliest terror attack of February 2019, in which 40 CRPF soldiers lost their lives, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) mentioned that the main accused Umar Farooq trained at the Sangin camp in the Helmand province of Afghanistan.
A LINK
The NIA says close to 1,000 Pakistani terrorists are trained at these al-Qaeda and Taliban camps. Incidentally, Helmand has a history of being among first provinces to come back under control of the Taliban after Nato operation.
Three years before the attack, Umar Farooq was training in terror camp in May-June 2016 in Helmand and subsequently in September 2016. Also, a well-known fact that slain terrorist Umar Farooq was the son of Ibrahim Athar, one of the five terrorists who had hijacked the Indian Airlines IC 814 in December 1999 and top JeM terrorist liaisoning with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
The Pakistan Army which has been indulging in proxy war had sent in the Afghan fighters into the Kashmir Valley where few were killed and rest apprehended and returned to their country after their sentence was over. Sources have said that the Afghan terrorists are completely radicalised and would not surrender in encounters.
WHAT DEFENCE STAFF CHIEF SAID?
Speaking at an event, “The India-US Partnership: Securing the 21st Century”, in Delhi, Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat said, “We were concerned about how terrorist activity from Afghanistan could overflow into India and so to that extent our contingency planning had been ongoing and we are prepared for that.”
“Timeline has surprised us because we were anticipating this to happen, may be, a couple of months down the line. But it is pretty much the same — same Taliban that was there 20 years ago,” General Bipin Rawat said at the event organised by think-tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF).
THE SECURITY REVIEW
On Monday as Union Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla carried out review, the Taliban issue as a security concern came up prominently for discussion. While the officers were told to avoid giving a press statement on the issue, as the Indian government is yet to take a stand on developments in Afghanistan.
The situation along the borders also figured prominently in the meeting especially in the wake of Taliban taking over the control of Afghanistan. The security situation was reviewed with additional bunkers and equipment to block any infiltration.
Security agencies sound confident for the challenges posed by the Taliban and Pakistan militant outfits supported by the Taliban. However, the worry seems palpable. The Centre has stressed for security forces to maintain very high alert on both Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB) to meet with any threat, a source told India Today.
The measures to counter increasing drone droppings along the borders were also discussed. In some of the border areas, anti-drone equipment have been installed while in other areas this will be done shortly.
A senior officer in Indian Army said, “Situation is fluid. It may be too early to make assessment. For now it is wait and watch.”
Taliban in Afghanistan: Will there be fallout in Kashmir? Security forces are in tizzy
While there are fears that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan may impact the security situation in the Kashmir Valley, there are also apprehensions that this could escalate terror-related violence in the Union Territory.
