Taiwan’s Ex-President: Regards China-Taiwan war: “First war is the same as the final war”

[Faith_Lock]

This is on the news in Taiwan today.

https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200810003837-260407?ctrack=pc_main_hot_p01&chdtv

It is in traditional Chinese. I will provide a brief translation.

The ex-President of Taiwan is called Ma Ying-Jeou. He is pro-unification and is a member of KMT.

It is based on a speech he gave yesterday. In the speech, he said that if a war starts in Taiwan. All Taiwanese military personnel know that the first war is the same as the final war. What that means is that if a war starts, there will be no more Taiwan. China will make sure that the war will finish before USA’s help can arrive. Thus, a good Taiwanese leader shall not talk about how many days Taiwanese military can hold off; but rather how can a good leader avoid the war in the first place.

Note that in the previous thread, I talked about most Taiwanese have no interest in fighting for Taiwan.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/what...ng-to-fight-for-taiwan-and-other-news.679620/

By the way, US Health secretary just call Taiwan’s president “President Xi..” For the record, President Xi is the President of China.

 

[Figaro]

By the way, US Health secretary just call Taiwan’s president “President Xi..” For the record, President Xi is the President of China.

 

[Faith_Lock]

Just want to give a little update on this.

Ex-President Ma Ying-Jeou's speech was absolutely savaged in Taiwan in the last two days. The public opinion in Taiwan was completely against what Ma was trying to say.

I am very surprised that the public opinion in Taiwan had coalesced to the point that in the next three months, it is the best chance (or even the only chance) that Taiwan Independence can occur.

So many of my relatives (who are pro TI) want the war (USA and China) to occur in the next three months. Between Xi Jinping's cowardice (their point of view, not mine) and Donald Trump's idiocy and gambler personality, Taiwan has an once in a lifetime chance to become the fuse to start to a war between the two super powers. Out of which, a new country (Taiwan) will rise like a phoenix.

Feels like I am in a twi-light zone. Can't believe so many Taiwanese are willing to take so much chances.

 

[casual]

How likely is it that Taiwan declare independence in the next 3 months? China will definitely go to war then and US can jump in and get that war it wants.

 

[ToddBing]

How likely is it that Taiwan declare independence in the next 3 months? China will definitely go to war then and US can jump in and get that war it wants.

Zero.
I don't think Tsai is too stupid to be the cannon fodder of Trump.

 

[Brainsucker]

It is stupid to want a war, not because you can't win, but Taiwan will definitely become ruin like cities in Syria. If they lose, Taiwan will become a part of China, but if they win, all business will run away, and Taiwan will left with nothing.

 

[Feng Leng]

The next step up in the escalation ladder is PLAAF crossing Taiwan and live fire exercises off the east coast of Taiwan. Unless forced by Pompeo going to Taipei to establish diplomatic relations, Beijing prefers not to play this card until after the November US elections.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/pla-...-before-us-officials-meeting-with-tsa.680238/

Once the card is played, Taiwan cannot avoid a large scale air and missile attack on its air defenses and possibly political targets too.

 

[Faith_Lock]

It is stupid to want a war, not because you can't win, but Taiwan will definitely become ruin like cities in Syria. If they lose, Taiwan will become a part of China, but if they win, all business will run away, and Taiwan will left with nothing.

I agree, it is absolutely insane. Unfortunately, most of the people I know and the the popular viewpoint in Taiwan is going that way.

 

[Feng Leng]

Ma is getting ready to take the post as provincial secretary general of Taiwan. Good political move

 

[Faith_Lock]

How likely is it that Taiwan declare independence in the next 3 months? China will definitely go to war then and US can jump in and get that war it wants.

I think most Taiwanese are going insane.

Through the conversations in the last two days, it goes like this (at least that is what most TIers hope will happen).


Donald Trump needs a real foreign policy win. His definition of a win is not just winning in substance but also require the public humiliation of his opponent.


4 years ago, he wanted to build that wall and having Mexico to pay for it. Mexican president was strong enough not to suffer the public humiliation and bow to his demand. No other governments, from German to Canada to Iran are willing to suffer the humiliation. And democrats are laughing at him for it. But if he can do that to Xi Jinping, it would really help his election.


Most people in Taiwan believe there will be, within the next month, a reworked phase 1 trade agreement between China and USA where China will be forced to buy more (say $250B) US products (as opposed to the current $200B). That way, Trump can say that the additional $50B is China paying the 1st down payment of the restitution due to China sent the China virus to sicken the American people.


Trump is a bully. When a bully senses a weakling, he will never stop. Within a month after that newly reworked trade agreement, he would want to start another war (be it trade, technology, currency, or others, but not actual hot war involving weapons) to get the 2nd down payment to the restitution due to China’s sin to spread the virus to the world.


This is where Taiwan comes in. Trump needs a reason and a card to play. Taiwan Independence is China’s limit (at least that is what Xi said). But Trump is a bully (if he doesn’t respect you) who will step over the red line to see your reaction (just like what he is doing with the weapon sales and officials visiting Taiwan).


Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-Wen will give Trump a great gift, the changing of Taiwan’s constitution. The mechanism to change Taiwan’s constitution had already started (in Taiwan's congress). At this point, the modification is just on normal daily affairs. But it is very easy to add more modifications since the process had already started. (By the way, most Taiwanese believe that Tsai Ing-Wen start the constitution changing process to give her maximum opportunity to declare TI at the shortest time if the opportunity arise.)


What is most likely to happen is that at the beginning, Taiwan will just taste the water. Taiwan could start by just to remove one mention of China (there are so many mention of China in Taiwan’s constitution) in the constitution and observe what happens.


If China really react and Trump back down, then Taiwan will turn back the modification. But most Taiwanese don’t think this will be the case because so far when Trump pushes, Xi will eventually back down.


If it looks like Xi is backing down or if it looks like none of them are backing down and it might cause a war between China and USA, Taiwan will completely changes the constitution from a Chinese constitution to a true Taiwan independence constitution.


Most Taiwanese know Trump is an isolationist at heart. They know none of Trump and Xi wants a real war. But now both of them are stuck. But Trump is a bully as well as a gambler (considering his 5 bankruptcies) and he has zero respect for Xi, with his election on the line, he will go for it. The rest depends on Xi.

By the way, if Xi does back down. Tsai Ing-Wen is a slick operator. She will give Xi a path forward to save his face (because in this case, Xi will be the best friend to TIers and Tsai will do everything she can to make sure Xi will not be overthrown).

But either way, with or without war, Taiwan Independence will be accomplished within the next three months.


The problem with TIers is that China is growing so fast that if it doesn’t happen in the next three months, it would probably never happen.

 

[Feng Leng]

TI has plenty of time although the best timing is within the next three months.

It can also end in a war of attrition. Taiwan military is attacked with air and missile strikes. China and US refrain from a direct naval battle. Just mining and interdictions of shipping around Taiwan. Taiwan becomes a no-man's land / demilitarized zone between China and the US and completely cut off from the rest of the world by shipping.

 

[Figaro]

The economic and political consequences would be much more severe for China than the military consequences ... that is the primary reason I think China hasn't attacked yet or isn't planning to attack at least in the foreseeable future. Especially considering Taiwan has not declared formal independence, there is even less of a reason to do so.

 

[Feng Leng]

The economic and political consequences would be much more severe for China than the military consequences ... that is the primary reason I think China hasn't attacked yet or isn't planning to attack at least in the foreseeable future. Especially considering Taiwan has not declared formal independence, there is even less of a reason to do so.

No, it's because war will involve casualties and economic dislocation. Beijing prefers to defer the war while it continues the arms build up. But if Beijing is cornered by TI, then there is no other option. Taiwan will be purified by fire.

See what happened to Hong Kong. Beijing would rather prefer Hong Kong be a fully autonomous city and having its own sense of identity and culture. This led to a rebellion so the rebellion had to be smashed even at the cost of Hong Kong turning into "just another mainland city".

 

[casual]

I think most Taiwanese are going insane.

Through the conversations in the last two days, it goes like this (at least that is what most TIers hope will happen).


Donald Trump needs a real foreign policy win. His definition of a win is not just winning in substance but also require the public humiliation of his opponent.


4 years ago, he wanted to build that wall and having Mexico to pay for it. Mexican president was strong enough not to suffer the public humiliation and bow to his demand. No other governments, from German to Canada to Iran are willing to suffer the humiliation. And democrats are laughing at him for it. But if he can do that to Xi Jinping, it would really help his election.


Most people in Taiwan believe there will be, within the next month, a reworked phase 1 trade agreement between China and USA where China will be forced to buy more (say $250B) US products (as opposed to the current $200B). That way, Trump can say that the additional $50B is China paying the 1st down payment of the restitution due to China sent the China virus to sicken the American people.


Trump is a bully. When a bully senses a weakling, he will never stop. Within a month after that newly reworked trade agreement, he would want to start another war (be it trade, technology, currency, or others, but not actual hot war involving weapons) to get the 2nd down payment to the restitution due to China’s sin to spread the virus to the world.


This is where Taiwan comes in. Trump needs a reason and a card to play. Taiwan Independence is China’s limit (at least that is what Xi said). But Trump is a bully (if he doesn’t respect you) who will step over the red line to see your reaction (just like what he is doing with the weapon sales and officials visiting Taiwan).


Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-Wen will give Trump a great gift, the changing of Taiwan’s constitution. The mechanism to change Taiwan’s constitution had already started (in Taiwan's congress). At this point, the modification is just on normal daily affairs. But it is very easy to add more modifications since the process had already started. (By the way, most Taiwanese believe that Tsai Ing-Wen start the constitution changing process to give her maximum opportunity to declare TI at the shortest time if the opportunity arise.)


What is most likely to happen is that at the beginning, Taiwan will just taste the water. Taiwan could start by just to remove one mention of China (there are so many mention of China in Taiwan’s constitution) in the constitution and observe what happens.


If China really react and Trump back down, then Taiwan will turn back the modification. But most Taiwanese don’t think this will be the case because so far when Trump pushes, Xi will eventually back down.


If it looks like Xi is backing down or if it looks like none of them are backing down and it might cause a war between China and USA, Taiwan will completely changes the constitution from a Chinese constitution to a true Taiwan independence constitution.


Most Taiwanese know Trump is an isolationist at heart. They know none of Trump and Xi wants a real war. But now both of them are stuck. But Trump is a bully as well as a gambler (considering his 5 bankruptcies) and he has zero respect for Xi, with his election on the line, he will go for it. The rest depends on Xi.

By the way, if Xi does back down. Tsai Ing-Wen is a slick operator. She will give Xi a path forward to save his face (because in this case, Xi will be the best friend to TIers and Tsai will do everything she can to make sure Xi will not be overthrown).

But either way, with or without war, Taiwan Independence will be accomplished within the next three months.


The problem with TIers is that China is growing so fast that if it doesn’t happen in the next three months, it would probably never happen.

China has been consistent in her message that if Taiwan declares independence, war will follow. I don't think Xi will or even can back down. Sovereignty proceeds all other concerns for cccp and if that means a couple hundred thousand dead troops and Taiwan flattened, then so be it. China used to fear American forces in the Pacific but that's no longer the case. China's military development has been laser focused on area denial against the USA in the past two decades and it has a bunch of new tools now. How well those tools work remains to been seen tho. Anyways, Tsai should not risk it.

 

[Faith_Lock]

First of all, just to make sure people know that I think it is of stupidity to the maximum degree that Taiwanese want Taiwan Independence even if they have the chance.


In 2018, most TIers were completely demoralized. Some of my relatives are even contemplating start to work in China to get ready for the eventual unification. But the trade war in the last 2 years had completely changed their perception. And it is not just the trade war with USA, it is also that China allows Hongkongers to brutalize Chinese in Hong Kong for a whole year, it allows Tsi Ing-Wen’s provocation for 5 years, it allows Australia’s provocation for 2 years.


By the way, for pretty much vast majority of Taiwanese I know, either pro-unification or pro-independence, all of them think Xi is a coward. (I not saying I feel the same way.)


On the other hand, you have Donald Trump, who is an idiot, a bully and a gambler. But he is also a bully who had force Xi to sign an unequal treaty.


The whole point is TIers think Donald Trump has the perfect personality to be manipulated.


Most of TIers I know think this has to be heaven’s will to have those two leaders (Trump and Xi) with those distinct type of personality be the leader of USA and China at this time.