Taiwan will forcefully expel PLA warplanes next time: Tsai Ing-wen

[ziaulislam]

that will escalate very badly , and it wont be good for Taiwan .

china is almost hoping for that.sooner or later it will eat it up

 

[Raphael]

This is Obama's 'red line' fiasco again. Cai is making threats she can't back up. She is learning from the US school of diplomacy: bluff and bluster until your face turns blue, and hope no one calls you out.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Look at you & your assumptions

Not assuming anything it’s just the truth. A few examples of weapon systems being developed/procured over the next 5 years:

- Over 1,000 antiship missiles being procured over the next 5 years

- approximately 40 hypersonic flight tests over next few years with IOC not far behind. A triad of conventional hypersonic strike capabilities are being pursued now

- B-21 bomber

- test of a 1,000 km land launched cruise missile....and 3,000-4,000 km land launched ballistic missile this year with deployment not far behind.

- US Army/Marine procurement of land based antiship missile capability.

- US Army doubling in range it’s artillery and rocket forces. US Army development of the precision strike missile.

-Flight 3 Burke’s

- Improved Virginia’s with Virginia Payload Modules

- Procurement of over a 1,000 fifth generation fighters

- Next generation Frigate

The US military is ramping up its modernization in a huge way over the next 10 years.

 

[war&peace]

Not assuming anything it’s just the truth. A few examples of weapon systems being developed/procured over the next 5 years:

- Over 1,000 antiship missiles being procured over the next 5 years

- approximately 40 hypersonic flight tests over next few years with IOC not far behind. A triad of conventional hypersonic strike capabilities are being pursued now

- B-21 bomber

- test of a 1,000 km land launched cruise missile....and 3,000-4,000 km land launched ballistic missile this year with deployment not far behind.

- US Army/Marine procurement of land based antiship missile capability.

- US Army doubling in range it’s artillery and rocket forces. US Army development of the precision strike missile.

-Flight 3 Burke’s

- Improved Virginia’s with Virginia Payload Modules

- Procurement of over a 1,000 fifth generation fighters

- Next generation Frigate

The US military is ramping up its modernization in a huge way over the next 10 years.

And your assumption is that China will sit idle for the next 5-10 yrs ...

 

[Mav3rick]

I see some valid points in your statement. Yes, every war is different, and it is also possible that US is bluffing in regards to Taiwan. But you never know.

What I have gathered from my studies is that US is really good in 'conventional warfare'. And China's attention will be split between Taiwan and US - does not look good in this context to say the least.

I do not think that China will consider nuclear war with US for another entity even if it is Taiwan. China is a sensible country in this respect.

Please excuse my random jump into the argument, but I was thinking about the situation and possibilities if China decides to take on Taiwan by force. We can conclude that Taiwan cannot resist a hostile takeover regardless of external help or not. Consider the scenarios:

Scenario 1: External help is NOT available to Taiwan, should the Taiwanese Government defend Taiwan against Chinese forces and risk massive destruction to life and property?

Scenario 2: External help IS available to Taiwan, should the Taiwanese Government still defend Taiwan against a determined China at the risk of war within Taiwanese Cities?

When I go through the 2 above, I conclude that it would NOT be in the interest of Taiwan to resist a determined China because 1 way or the other, unification is bound to happen.

Now, coming back to US's ability to wage conventional warfare, ofcourse the US has a supreme appetite for war......on other lands. However, would the US Government have support of the US public to wage war with China over Taiwan? I mean it would be a different thing to go to war with China if the US is attacked but to take on China over Taiwan and endangering US Cities and lives and properties of Americans, would the Government have public support? And would the US still go to war with China knowing fully well that the consequences would not be in favor of the US either? Let us assume that the US is able to impose crippling damages to China but what about damages that the Chinese would inevitably cause to the US Military and US Mainland?

In the end, I guess it is all about the will power and public support. Whereas China has the public support to take over Taiwan, by force if necessary, I am skeptical that the US Government would be able to garner public support to actually mobilize the military and wage war with China, over Taiwan.

 

[gambit]

...if China decides to take on Taiwan by force. We can conclude that Taiwan cannot resist a hostile takeover regardless of external help or not.

Your conclusion is wrong.

To date, the greatest SUCCESSFUL amphibious assault is D-Day, the invasion of Normandy, France. The Allies sent over one million men against a defending force of about 300,000. In a China vs Taiwan scenario, we would be looking at the same ratio. If Taiwan decide to declare independence, there would be nothing China can do regarding an invasion to subdue Taiwan. That leave standoff bombardment, meaning missiles and also meaning leaving Taiwan an utterly uninhabitable wasteland. I doubt China have the stomach to commit that level of atrocity OVER MONTHS OF BOMBARDMENT just out of national pride. The Chinese members in this forum never served a single day in uniform so simply put -- they do not know what they are talking about.

As for US involvement, looking at the map...

The PLA KNOWS that the least the US have to do is station subs on the eastern side of Taiwan effectively preventing the PLA from even flanking the island, let alone encircle it. If the US decides to station an aircraft carrier on that eastern side, the US will have air supremacy over Taiwanese airspace. China's DF-21D will not matter. China will do NOTHING regarding US mainland. We can resupply Taiwan practically indefinitely on the eastern side of the island. China will go broke building missiles before Taiwan is defeated.

 

[LeGenD]

And your assumption is that China will sit idle for the next 5-10 yrs ...

Of-course not, but China does not have parity with US in military might and operational exposure; not even close.

You can see that Russian defenses completely failed to do anything about American firepower when it was unleashed on Syrian regime - TWICE. And Russia is widely regarded as 2nd greatest military power in the world after US in virtually any assessment.

China is strong and well-equipped enough to defeat India in a war, but US is entirely different ballgame in comparison. This isn't to say that China cannot punish Taiwan in a war but potential outcome strongly rest upon what US is willing to do about this. Assessment of @gambit is very telling - being a veteran he understand these matters on a much deeper level than any member here.

It is possible that US is bluffing about shielding Taiwan from China, and may not intervene in this confrontation. But nobody knows for sure.

China has to bring its defense budget to the level of American, and develop its own technologies in order to achieve true parity with US in the matters of defense at some point in time, but this is very ambitious task in the light of sheer size of Chinese population and its demands. Just saying.

Let us hope that sanity prevails in the end, and China and Taiwan reach a better understanding on the issue. Modern-era wars can ruin the lives of millions of people.

 

[war&peace]

Of-course not, but China does not have parity with US in military might and operational exposure; not even close.

You can see that Russian defenses completely failed to do anything about American firepower when it was unleashed on Syrian regime - TWICE. And Russia is widely regarded as 2nd greatest military power in the world after US in virtually any assessment.

China is strong and well-equipped enough to defeat India in a war, but US is entirely different ballgame in comparison. This isn't to say that China cannot punish Taiwan in a war but potential outcome strongly rest upon what US is willing to do about this. Assessment of @gambit is very telling - being a veteran he understand these matters on a much deeper level than any member here.

It is possible that US is bluffing about shielding Taiwan from China, and may not intervene in this confrontation. But nobody knows for sure.

China has to bring its defense budget to the level of American, and develop its own technologies in order to achieve true parity with US in the matters of defense at some point in time, but this is very ambitious task in the light of sheer size of Chinese population and its demands. Just saying.

Let us hope that sanity prevails in the end, and China and Taiwan reach a better understanding on the issue. Modern-era wars can ruin the lives of millions of people.

Do you really think USA dare attack mainland China?

 

[LeGenD]

Do you really think USA dare attack mainland China?

For Taiwan?

Assuming that US decides to intervene, then US might go after Chinese military targets committed to hurting Taiwan at most but will spare Chinese cities and such - red lines not crossed in this way. But @gambit can tell you better.

Taiwan is an important manufacturing hub for computer-related parts for the entire world - TSMC in particular, so even China would not want to ruin Taiwan.

FYI: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC

 

[war&peace]

For Taiwan?

Assuming that US decides to intervene, then US might go after Chinese military targets committed to hurting Taiwan at most but will spare Chinese cities and such - red lines not crossed in this way. But @gambit can tell you better.

Taiwan is an important manufacturing hub for computer-related parts for the entire world - TSMC in particular, so even China would not want to ruin Taiwan.

FYI: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC

Well, I have to say that you are living in the fool's paradise and you will be up for a very rude awakening..

 

[F-22Raptor]

And your assumption is that China will sit idle for the next 5-10 yrs ...

China will continue to pursue its own capabilities....but the fact remains that the US is undergoing its most extensive modernization effort since the 1980s Reagan era.

 

[phancong]

Of-course not, but China does not have parity with US in military might and operational exposure; not even close.

You can see that Russian defenses completely failed to do anything about American firepower when it was unleashed on Syrian regime - TWICE. And Russia is widely regarded as 2nd greatest military power in the world after US in virtually any assessment.

China is strong and well-equipped enough to defeat India in a war, but US is entirely different ballgame in comparison. This isn't to say that China cannot punish Taiwan in a war but potential outcome strongly rest upon what US is willing to do about this. Assessment of @gambit is very telling - being a veteran he understand these matters on a much deeper level than any member here.

It is possible that US is bluffing about shielding Taiwan from China, and may not intervene in this confrontation. But nobody knows for sure.

China has to bring its defense budget to the level of American, and develop its own technologies in order to achieve true parity with US in the matters of defense at some point in time, but this is very ambitious task in the light of sheer size of Chinese population and its demands. Just saying.

Let us hope that sanity prevails in the end, and China and Taiwan reach a better understanding on the issue. Modern-era wars can ruin the lives of millions of people.

US decide to attack mainland China will turn into world war 3. I don't think US foolish will attack mainland over Taiwan.

 

[gambit]

US decide to attack mainland China will turn into world war 3. I don't think US foolish will attack mainland over Taiwan.

Neither will China attack CONUS just because the US comes to Taiwan's defense.

But look at it this way...

China view Taiwan as China proper, so if the US comes to Taiwan's defense, China can view that as an attack on China itself and retaliate on CONUS. But how can China do that? Other than nuclear -- nothing. The PLA cannot even mount a D-Day level amphibious assault on Taiwan, let alone send troops over to the other side of the world.

Assuming the US is committed to Taiwan's defense, all the US have to do is control the eastern SEA half of the island and Taiwanese defense will sink enough of the PLAN ships that it will make any landing impossible, let alone land and progress. The US do not have to land a single ordnance on Taiwan or mainland China.

Out of ten ballistic missiles launched against Taiwan? We just have to intercept half and Taiwanese defense will survive. That also mean no possible PLAAF presence over Taiwan. All the US have to do is present SAM threats and let Taiwanese fighters do the job of keeping the PLAAF out.

On the water, if the PLAN cannot encircle Taiwan, the PLAN is useless. PLAN subs cannot challenge US subs and PLAN leadership knows it. The shape of the island is significant because its elongated length create additional distance for any ship, surface or sub, to travel, and if the PLAN and the PLAAF cannot attack the eastern half of the island, Taiwanese defense will survive.

So to date, the best solution for China is utter nuclear annihilation of Taiwan. Only clueless keyboard warriors will approve of that.

 

[phancong]

Neither will China attack CONUS just because the US comes to Taiwan's defense.

But look at it this way...

China view Taiwan as China proper, so if the US comes to Taiwan's defense, China can view that as an attack on China itself and retaliate on CONUS. But how can China do that? Other than nuclear -- nothing. The PLA cannot even mount a D-Day level amphibious assault on Taiwan, let alone send troops over to the other side of the world.

Assuming the US is committed to Taiwan's defense, all the US have to do is control the eastern SEA half of the island and Taiwanese defense will sink enough of the PLAN ships that it will make any landing impossible, let alone land and progress. The US do not have to land a single ordnance on Taiwan or mainland China.

Out of ten ballistic missiles launched against Taiwan? We just have to intercept half and Taiwanese defense will survive. That also mean no possible PLAAF presence over Taiwan. All the US have to do is present SAM threats and let Taiwanese fighters do the job of keeping the PLAAF out.

On the water, if the PLAN cannot encircle Taiwan, the PLAN is useless. PLAN subs cannot challenge US subs and PLAN leadership knows it. The shape of the island is significant because its elongated length create additional distance for any ship, surface or sub, to travel, and if the PLAN and the PLAAF cannot attack the eastern half of the island, Taiwanese defense will survive.

So to date, the best solution for China is utter nuclear annihilation of Taiwan. Only clueless keyboard warriors will approve of that.

The war hadn't start yet, no need for you to tell me the what will and should happen. I'm not here to read your fiction short war story.

 

[gambit]

The war hadn't start yet, no need for you to tell me the what will and should happen. I'm not here to read your fiction short war story.

Buddy, what you posts in this forum are the real fiction. Mine just happens to be more believable.