By 2023, China will emerge as one of the world's two superpowers, with its GDP surpassing even that of the United States, reports the Beijing-based China Economic Weekly.
"I make the projection based on the assumption that China's success in reform will be greater than that of any other major country," said Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University and secretary general of the World Peace Forum.
Yan projected that in 2023, China's GDP will reach US$17 trillion based on the current exchange rate. Using a predicted exchange rate of 1:5 against the US dollar, its GDP will exceed US$19 trillion. In 2023, the renminbi's influence will reach more than 50% that of the US dollar, becoming one of the world's three dominant currencies.
Ten years from now, China will have a manned space station, serving at least three aircraft carrier fleets (likely having built five aircraft carriers), having four to five nuclear submarines each with a missile range of 8,000km, and owning fifth-generation fighter aircraft (with J-20 and J-31 stealth fighters), he said.
Some senior diplomats believe China is unlikely to become a superpower in such a short period of time, but many foreign nationals and overseas politicians believe China will soon become a superpower, Yan said.
In the next decade, there is no other country except China that will have compound national power approaching the US, thus forming the two poles of the world — the US and China, Yan said.
Becoming a superpower does not smooth over China's serious domestic challenges. The US government, still a giant in the figures, was forced to close for 17 days this year as the Republican Party forced the country to the brink of a default over opposition to healthcare reforms.
The US surely will try to slow the progress of China, but it cannot stop the shrinking gap between the two countries, Yan said.
Currently, China's foreign relations can be classified into four degrees: first, friendly ties like that with Russia; second, common ties such as that with the Germany, France, India and United Kingdom; third, a new type of great power relationship with the US; and fourth, antagonism, referring to ties with Japan, the scholar said.
The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, last month said that trust between the US and its partners has to be restored following the revelation that American intelligence targeted her cellphone, and insisted that there must be no "spying among friends."
This provides a good lesson for China that in the future it must be extremely cautious in its international relations, or it could quickly become the enemy of the world, Yan said.
Superpower status in sight for China, says scholar｜Politics｜News｜WantChinaTimes.com
"I make the projection based on the assumption that China's success in reform will be greater than that of any other major country," said Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University and secretary general of the World Peace Forum.
Yan projected that in 2023, China's GDP will reach US$17 trillion based on the current exchange rate. Using a predicted exchange rate of 1:5 against the US dollar, its GDP will exceed US$19 trillion. In 2023, the renminbi's influence will reach more than 50% that of the US dollar, becoming one of the world's three dominant currencies.
Ten years from now, China will have a manned space station, serving at least three aircraft carrier fleets (likely having built five aircraft carriers), having four to five nuclear submarines each with a missile range of 8,000km, and owning fifth-generation fighter aircraft (with J-20 and J-31 stealth fighters), he said.
Some senior diplomats believe China is unlikely to become a superpower in such a short period of time, but many foreign nationals and overseas politicians believe China will soon become a superpower, Yan said.
In the next decade, there is no other country except China that will have compound national power approaching the US, thus forming the two poles of the world — the US and China, Yan said.
Becoming a superpower does not smooth over China's serious domestic challenges. The US government, still a giant in the figures, was forced to close for 17 days this year as the Republican Party forced the country to the brink of a default over opposition to healthcare reforms.
The US surely will try to slow the progress of China, but it cannot stop the shrinking gap between the two countries, Yan said.
Currently, China's foreign relations can be classified into four degrees: first, friendly ties like that with Russia; second, common ties such as that with the Germany, France, India and United Kingdom; third, a new type of great power relationship with the US; and fourth, antagonism, referring to ties with Japan, the scholar said.
The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, last month said that trust between the US and its partners has to be restored following the revelation that American intelligence targeted her cellphone, and insisted that there must be no "spying among friends."
This provides a good lesson for China that in the future it must be extremely cautious in its international relations, or it could quickly become the enemy of the world, Yan said.
Superpower status in sight for China, says scholar｜Politics｜News｜WantChinaTimes.com
