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3- exiting nuclear deal and hot summer 1397
The third shifting point, American make threat against Iran about economic damages, and in spring of 1397 they operate their threats by exiting nuclear deal.
In my opinion, for understanding new wave of sanctions we must compare that with previous sanctions which happened during Obama time. The main difference is those who decide and implement sanctions and their backgrounds and their purposes. The sanctions are almost same by the way their implementation are different and that come from background of those responsible for this job.
https://www.brookings.edu/experts/richard-nephew/
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/mandelker-iran-sanctions/594412/
with analyzing these two people we can understand sanctions and how they act and react which help us to create more precise scenarios for future which is not our purpose in this topic.
differences:
1- we have man and woman and as we know man and woman see the world differently and make decisions differently, mans most of the time sees issues more deeply and play longer game while woman sees issues more widely and play shorter game, each of these choices have their own advantages and disadvantages and are not better than other one.
2- for the guy Iran sanctions was part of his job and he was chosen b/c he was guy who know how to do his job well; in other hand the lady economic sanctions against Iran is personal war, she came from Jewish family and have strong ties with Zionists in Israel and other parts of the world.
.....
From there come differences in decision making center of sanctions against Iran and way that they implement sanctions against Iran.
In spring of 1397, USA exit Iran nuclear deal and operate it's threats against Iran in sanctions cases and at that time unrest in Iran haven't finished completely yet. At that time John Bolton promise hot summer and surprise for Iran. Also around that time Iran base in T4 was hit, That mean three cards were active at spring and summer of 1397. 1- economic card 2- internal unrest 3- kinetic war against Iranian military personnel
That huge hybrid pressure create atmosphere in USA administration that Iran would collapse soon
I remember people in Iran were preparing for famine in Iran by buying necessary foods and medicines
Unlike Obama Trump decided to play fast and shorter game and put huge pressure on Iran in shorter time to bring Iran to its knees in summer of 1397(2018) but as we know the pressure meet its end in spring 1398(2019) by completely bringing Iran oil sanction waivers to zero and put sanctions on all petrochemical and metal Iran exports. After that day America burned another important card which was threat of more sanctions. b/c there weren't more sanctions to impose on Iran after that time, While Iran from spring of 1397 till spring of 1398 managed to survive under USA harsh economic war and adopt itself to new situation.
till spring of 1398, USA lost two of its cards which were threat of more sanctions and internal unrest, so that was time to play its other cards more precisely and wisely.
4- Iran reactions under nuclear deal, and war threat b/w Iran and USA
In the anniversary of USA exit from Iran nuclear deal Iran announced 60 days mechanism to react against USA pressure on other parties to not do their obligations under deal.
That was big blow on the USA department and hawks b/c remaining Iran nuclear deal members did not recognize Iran announcement as important violation against deal. So USA tried to play one of its left cards more carefully and that was Iran and USA direct war in Persian gulf, at this time we saw tankers were burning and Japan prime minister and other European diplomats in Iran. I remember at that time German foreign minister( Heiko Maas) in Tehran next to Zarif said I here to help Iran from USA upcoming war, and Iran should be good boy and accept our requests. exactly 10 days later Iran shot down USA drone in Persian gulf and USA inability to respond clearly burned another big and important card which was direct war b/w Iran and USA which always as I said foreign ministers and presidents used when they had meeting with Iranian counterparts. After that day we are not hearing from them more about we are here to help Iran from upcoming USA attack!!!!
5- there is more cards left on USA hands and USA can recycle its lost cards by time, however Iran has not lost its cards yet and it can use them.
3- exiting nuclear deal and hot summer 1397
The third shifting point, American make threat against Iran about economic damages, and in spring of 1397 they operate their threats by exiting nuclear deal.
In my opinion, for understanding new wave of sanctions we must compare that with previous sanctions which happened during Obama time. The main difference is those who decide and implement sanctions and their backgrounds and their purposes. The sanctions are almost same by the way their implementation are different and that come from background of those responsible for this job.
https://www.brookings.edu/experts/richard-nephew/
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/mandelker-iran-sanctions/594412/
with analyzing these two people we can understand sanctions and how they act and react which help us to create more precise scenarios for future which is not our purpose in this topic.
differences:
1- we have man and woman and as we know man and woman see the world differently and make decisions differently, mans most of the time sees issues more deeply and play longer game while woman sees issues more widely and play shorter game, each of these choices have their own advantages and disadvantages and are not better than other one.
2- for the guy Iran sanctions was part of his job and he was chosen b/c he was guy who know how to do his job well; in other hand the lady economic sanctions against Iran is personal war, she came from Jewish family and have strong ties with Zionists in Israel and other parts of the world.
.....
From there come differences in decision making center of sanctions against Iran and way that they implement sanctions against Iran.
In spring of 1397, USA exit Iran nuclear deal and operate it's threats against Iran in sanctions cases and at that time unrest in Iran haven't finished completely yet. At that time John Bolton promise hot summer and surprise for Iran. Also around that time Iran base in T4 was hit, That mean three cards were active at spring and summer of 1397. 1- economic card 2- internal unrest 3- kinetic war against Iranian military personnel
That huge hybrid pressure create atmosphere in USA administration that Iran would collapse soon
I remember people in Iran were preparing for famine in Iran by buying necessary foods and medicines
Unlike Obama Trump decided to play fast and shorter game and put huge pressure on Iran in shorter time to bring Iran to its knees in summer of 1397(2018) but as we know the pressure meet its end in spring 1398(2019) by completely bringing Iran oil sanction waivers to zero and put sanctions on all petrochemical and metal Iran exports. After that day America burned another important card which was threat of more sanctions. b/c there weren't more sanctions to impose on Iran after that time, While Iran from spring of 1397 till spring of 1398 managed to survive under USA harsh economic war and adopt itself to new situation.
till spring of 1398, USA lost two of its cards which were threat of more sanctions and internal unrest, so that was time to play its other cards more precisely and wisely.
4- Iran reactions under nuclear deal, and war threat b/w Iran and USA
In the anniversary of USA exit from Iran nuclear deal Iran announced 60 days mechanism to react against USA pressure on other parties to not do their obligations under deal.
That was big blow on the USA department and hawks b/c remaining Iran nuclear deal members did not recognize Iran announcement as important violation against deal. So USA tried to play one of its left cards more carefully and that was Iran and USA direct war in Persian gulf, at this time we saw tankers were burning and Japan prime minister and other European diplomats in Iran. I remember at that time German foreign minister( Heiko Maas) in Tehran next to Zarif said I here to help Iran from USA upcoming war, and Iran should be good boy and accept our requests. exactly 10 days later Iran shot down USA drone in Persian gulf and USA inability to respond clearly burned another big and important card which was direct war b/w Iran and USA which always as I said foreign ministers and presidents used when they had meeting with Iranian counterparts. After that day we are not hearing from them more about we are here to help Iran from upcoming USA attack!!!!
5- there is more cards left on USA hands and USA can recycle its lost cards by time, however Iran has not lost its cards yet and it can use them.
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