Strategic Geopolitics and Bangladesh

Black_cats · Feb 19, 2022

Strategic Geopolitics and Bangladesh

Published
19 hours ago
on
February 18, 2022
By
Dr.M. Munzurul Haque

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/02/18/strategic-geopolitics-and-bangladesh/#
Authors: Dr. M. Munzurul Haque and Md Tareq Hasan

In recent times, South Asian geopolitics has become the focus of renewed interest from the world’s superpowers. The superpowers have started competing to establish strategic relations with various Asian countries in order to dominate and protect their geopolitical interests. India and China, two nuclear-armed countries in Asia, are working on various schemes and plans to maintain geopolitical control and dominance in South Asia. Superpower America, on the other hand, has focused on developing an Indo-Pacific economic framework and QUAD in the Indo-Pacific region in order to counter China’s growing economic rise and military dominance.

The United States has called on India to increase military cooperation with China, Vietnam, the Philippines, and the Pacific, as well as Japan, Australia, and South Asia in the South China Sea. During the epidemic, we saw the vaccine diplomacy of the superpowers. The United States, India, and China have donated millions of doses of the COVID-19 vaccine to South Asian countries.

China has already emerged as a major player in South Asian geopolitics. China, however, is not a South Asian country like India, but China’s interest in South Asian geopolitics is growing. They want to rein in India’s hegemony in South Asia. To this end, China has been making efforts for several years, and in almost all the countries of South Asia, China is participating in the development of countries through economic assistance and investment. Using its economic power, China has been able to build warm relations with almost all countries in South Asia. They plan to build an emergency vaccine platform in South Asia with Myanmar, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka to address the crisis.

Moreover, a lot of Chinese investment and various project activities are being carried out in these countries for the development of infrastructure. Due to the precarious situation in India, no country has been able to supply vaccines to any country. As a result, India lags far behind China in vaccine diplomacy and economic diplomacy. Thus, the duality of China and India in establishing their prestige in the geopolitical context of South Asia is now giving birth to a new polarization in world politics. Both countries consider each other adversaries, which is increasingly complicating the geopolitics of South Asia.

The idea of QUAD was first mooted by a committee formed in the wake of the 2004 earthquake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean region. Although Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe formally proposed the QUAD in 2007, the dialogue has been ineffective for nearly a decade. The United States resumed QUAD talks with its three allies in Asia in 2017, much to the chagrin of Xi Jinping, who launched the Belt Road Initiative after China came to power in 2013. In addition to the Sino-Indian conflict, the QUAD alliance has become another important factor in the geopolitics of South Asia.

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is referred to as “QUAD” for short. The main objective of the QUAD, comprising the United States, Japan, Australia, and India, is to make the Indo-Pacific region more effective in the international arena by building areas of cooperation among member states, including sovereignty, independence, security, free trade, and navigation. According to international relations analysts, China’s concern about the QUAD is due to the recent efforts of the United States to expand the QUAD. China fears that the United States could pressure Bangladesh to join the QUAD through India. If Bangladesh joins the QUAD in the face of that pressure, it could be a big headache for China. Concerns have already been raised by the Chinese ambassador. In this case, Bangladesh has faced a diplomatic challenge.

The seven states of Assam, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya, Arunachal, and Nagaland in the northeastern part of India are called the Seven Sisters. As these seven states are surrounded by the lands of other states, they maintain communication with the mainland of India through a 60-km long and 21–40 km wide narrow path called the Chicken Neck Corridor. Communication through this route is time-consuming and expensive. The Chicken Neck Corridor is also known as the Siliguri Corridor. It is located in the northern part of the Indian state of West Bengal. Bangladesh is at one end of the corridor, with Nepal and Bhutan at the other end, and Sikkim in India. India is interested in establishing road, rail, and waterway transit through these seven states through Bangladesh. Researchers are of the opinion that the existing transit charges used by India are insufficient considering the economic interests of Bangladesh when compared to the cost of maintenance and use of infrastructure in Bangladesh using seaports, roads, railways, and waterways through transit.

Despite Bangladesh’s good relations with China and India, they have always sided with Myanmar on the Rohingya issue. As a result, hopes for a solution to the Rohingya problem have been dashed. Moreover, due to strategic interests, China and India have come to side with Myanmar. In December 2021, China gifted a Ming class submarine to Myanmar, but Bangladesh had to buy two submarines of the same quality from China at a cost of 213 million. On the other hand, India, on the other hand, has recently donated an old Russian-made Kilo-class submarine to the Myanmar Navy. On the occasion, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Anurag Srivastava told a news conference on October 15, “The transfer of this submarine is in line with India’s ‘Sagar’ vision for the security and growth of the region.” “India’s commitment to the capacity and self-reliance of neighboring countries is helpful. India is appeasing Myanmar by handing over this military equipment. The Indian media says Myanmar has been given a submarine to stop China.

Bangladesh’s military experts believe that the transfer of the submarine will not affect Sino-Myanmar and Indo-Myanmar strategic relations, but it will affect Bangladesh. So far, Bangladesh has maintained a “balancing game” between China and India, but it is difficult and risky to keep this balance, because failure to maintain balance can create animosity with any one country. Therefore, the success of Bangladesh’s foreign policy will depend on how efficiently Bangladesh can walk on the “rope” of this balance. Due to its proximity to China, an independent and up-to-date foreign policy can make Bangladesh an important country. By making proper use of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh can become a hub of the Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor and contribute to communication between South Asia, Central Asia, Southeast Asia and China.

Most of the ongoing projects in Bangladesh are funded by the Chinese. Naturally, it is increasing its dependence on China. We have to be careful and tactful so that Bangladesh does not fall into the trap of Chinese debt like Sri Lanka. The United States relies heavily on India for its own interests in the Asian region. India is also a partner in the QUAD Alliance, and that is a risk for Bangladesh. It has also brought geostrategic advantages. The recent US pressure on Bangladesh on human rights and RAB is aimed at preventing Bangladesh from taking the lead on that path. With that, there are various elements in Sino-US relations and geopolitical calculations in the region. In this situation, Bangladesh has to say “friendship with everyone, not enmity with anyone.” Bangladesh is also having to deal with the regional and sub-regional situation with the Rohingyas.

For geopolitical reasons, Myanmar is a very important neighbor to China. Similarly, India needs to be closer to Myanmar in curbing separatist insurgencies in Manipur, Assam, and Nagaland in northeastern India, including reducing Chinese influence in Myanmar. This makes the equation more complicated. It is difficult to separate from China if trade and the economy are to be maintained. ASEAN as an alliance will weaken, and the SAARC regional alliance in South Asia is virtually non-existent due to the Indo-Pakistani conflict. The recent confrontation between Russia and NATO over the Russia-Ukraine issue, the war situation, and China’s plans to occupy Taiwan will increase the arms race around the world, leading to increased military spending. It will undermine the impact of poverty alleviation and the impact of climate change and disrupt regional peace.

In order to succeed in geopolitics and foreign policy, building friendly relations with all countries as well as increasing military capabilities will strengthen Bangladesh’s geopolitical position. In this case, we have to follow the path carefully because the policy of balanced neutrality will play an important and significant role in the geopolitics of Bangladesh. Moreover, good relations with neighboring countries will strengthen Bangladesh’s geopolitical position. It should be noted here that the interests of Bangladesh should be given top priority in balancing relations with China and India, as well as in establishing high diplomatic relations with the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union. And only then will we be able to deal with any future crisis and the country will be free from the clutches of complex geopolitics. Besides, strategic geopolitics is essential to keep the country free from pressure in any crisis and changing situation. Above all, not enmity but friendship with all countries will be the key to success in the country’s geopolitics. Therefore, let us try to uphold the interests of the country by increasing our diplomatic relations and scope of work with each country, as well as gaining the military capability of the country by relying on this diplomatic philosophy.