South Korea Again Smashes Own Record for World’s Lowest Fertility Rate in 2022

[beijingwalker]

South Korea Again Smashes Own Record for World’s Lowest Fertility Rate in 2022​

Sam Kim
Tue, February 21, 2023 at 10:00 PM EST

(Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s fertility rate, the world’s lowest for years, has fallen again, aggravating the challenges of aging demographics for the economy.

The number of babies expected per woman fell to 0.78 last year, according to data released by the statistics office on Wednesday. At 0.81 in 2021, it was already the lowest among more than 260 nations tracked by the World Bank.


The lack of babies carries long-term risks for the economy by reducing the size of the workforce that underpins its growth and vitality. Welfare spending for an aging population also drains national coffers that could otherwise be utilized to promote businesses, research and other enterprises that are key to prosperity.

A shrinking workforce is a major cause of Korea’s declining potential growth rate. The working-age population peaked at 37.3 million in 2020 and is set to fall by almost half by 2070, according to Statistics Korea.

The number of newborns declined last year to 249,000 from 260,600 a year earlier, the statistics office said. That’s less than 5% of the population. In contrast, about 373,000 people died last year, extending what one policymaker called a “death cross.”

Korea has the world’s fastest-shrinking population among economies with per capita gross domestic product of at least $30,000, according to United Nations projections and World Bank data. By 2100, the number of people is projected to fall by 53% to 24 million. That’s a further deterioration from a 43% decline forecast in 2019.

Korea’s leaders have increased spending to encourage people to have more babies, including President Yoon Suk Yeol’s policy of tripling payments for mothers of newborns.

The government has also adopted a policy of living with an aging population, after seeing its efforts bear little fruit. That includes enhancing living conditions for retirees, accelerating robot adoption and inviting more foreigners into the workforce.

Economists suggest Korea needs to do more to improve gender equality so that women feel less worried about losing their jobs by having children. High education and housing costs are among other factors putting pressure on fertility, data show.

The average age at which a woman has her first child rose to 33 last year while the number of second children fell by 16.8%. By region, the capital Seoul had the lowest fertility rate at 0.59, while Sejong, home to government headquarters, had the highest at 1.12, according to the stats office.

The figures are preliminary and may be revised later this year.

South Korea Again Smashes Own Record for World’s Lowest Fertility Rate in 2022

(Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s fertility rate, the world’s lowest for years, has fallen again, aggravating the challenges of aging demographics for the economy.Most Read from BloombergMcKinsey Plans to Eliminate About 2,000 Jobs in One of Its Biggest Rounds of CutsHow Much Do Investors Say They...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[letsrock]

How is north korea doing with their feritility rate ?

 

[Song Hong]

Shanghai fertility is 0.7 and Beijing is 0.6.

 

[beijingwalker]

Shanghai fertility is 0.7 and Beijing is 0.6.

View attachment 917478

Big cities are always the lowest, but China still have several provinces enjoying very healthy population growth even the country as a whole suffered a drop last year. China is a continental size country and everythng various greatly from province to province.

 

[Song Hong]

Big cities are always the lowest, but China still have several provinces enjoying very healthy population growth even the country as a whole suffered a drop last year. China is a continental size country and everythng various greatly from province to province.

Engineers think deep. The implication is very bad Beijing Shanghai fertility is low. These cities are full of UPeking, Tsinghua, and all other top intellectual elite. These are the best people of China.

They are not allow to breed.

Then the village people breed more.

 

[hamilcar of carthage]

Engineers think deep. The implication is very bad Beijing Shanghai fertility is low. These cities are full of UPeking, Tsinghua, and all other top intellectual elite. These are the best people of China.

They are not allow to breed.

Then the village people breed more.

Everyone has a humble beginning.

 

[kankan326]

Shanghai fertility is 0.7 and Beijing is 0.6.

View attachment 917478

Houses in Shanghai and Beijing are super expensive. Traditionally Chinese parents have to pay at least 50% house cost for every of their sons/daughters

 

[Song Hong]

The "people commune" village in Manchuria live in big house. This is big reason why house price in Hegang collapse.

Since house price tied to M3 monies, GoC will not want to see Beijing house fall, destroying wealth. Else with better planning, Beijing and Shanghai could have lower price house.

 

[Mista]

Society	Total Fertility rate	Population decline began
Japan	1.37	2007
Mainland China	1.16	2022
Taiwan	0.98	2020
Hong Kong	0.77	2020
South Korea	0.78	2021
Singapore	1.12	-

 

[letsrock]

Society	Total Fertility rate	Population decline began
Japan	1.37	2007
Mainland China	1.16	2022
Taiwan	0.98	2020
Hong Kong	0.77	2020
South Korea	0.78	2021
Singapore	1.12	-

I wonder if housing has anything to do with this. Japan has the largest numbe of single homes in east asia.

 

[Foinikas]

South Korea Again Smashes Own Record for World’s Lowest Fertility Rate in 2022​

Sam Kim
Tue, February 21, 2023 at 10:00 PM EST

(Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s fertility rate, the world’s lowest for years, has fallen again, aggravating the challenges of aging demographics for the economy.

The number of babies expected per woman fell to 0.78 last year, according to data released by the statistics office on Wednesday. At 0.81 in 2021, it was already the lowest among more than 260 nations tracked by the World Bank.


The lack of babies carries long-term risks for the economy by reducing the size of the workforce that underpins its growth and vitality. Welfare spending for an aging population also drains national coffers that could otherwise be utilized to promote businesses, research and other enterprises that are key to prosperity.

A shrinking workforce is a major cause of Korea’s declining potential growth rate. The working-age population peaked at 37.3 million in 2020 and is set to fall by almost half by 2070, according to Statistics Korea.

The number of newborns declined last year to 249,000 from 260,600 a year earlier, the statistics office said. That’s less than 5% of the population. In contrast, about 373,000 people died last year, extending what one policymaker called a “death cross.”

Korea has the world’s fastest-shrinking population among economies with per capita gross domestic product of at least $30,000, according to United Nations projections and World Bank data. By 2100, the number of people is projected to fall by 53% to 24 million. That’s a further deterioration from a 43% decline forecast in 2019.

Korea’s leaders have increased spending to encourage people to have more babies, including President Yoon Suk Yeol’s policy of tripling payments for mothers of newborns.

The government has also adopted a policy of living with an aging population, after seeing its efforts bear little fruit. That includes enhancing living conditions for retirees, accelerating robot adoption and inviting more foreigners into the workforce.

Economists suggest Korea needs to do more to improve gender equality so that women feel less worried about losing their jobs by having children. High education and housing costs are among other factors putting pressure on fertility, data show.

The average age at which a woman has her first child rose to 33 last year while the number of second children fell by 16.8%. By region, the capital Seoul had the lowest fertility rate at 0.59, while Sejong, home to government headquarters, had the highest at 1.12, according to the stats office.

The figures are preliminary and may be revised later this year.

South Korea Again Smashes Own Record for World’s Lowest Fertility Rate in 2022

(Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s fertility rate, the world’s lowest for years, has fallen again, aggravating the challenges of aging demographics for the economy.Most Read from BloombergMcKinsey Plans to Eliminate About 2,000 Jobs in One of Its Biggest Rounds of CutsHow Much Do Investors Say They...

finance.yahoo.com

beijingwalker so happy

 

[That Guy]

I wonder if housing has anything to do with this. Japan has the largest numbe of single homes in east asia.

It's because everything is so expensive. I have a Japanese buddy and from what he told me, even couples who're married are simply choosing not to have kids or at least not more than 1. The cost of raising children has skyrocketed and the government is barely doing anything about it, while demanding Japanese couples have multiple children.

 

[Mista]

It's because everything is so expensive. I have a Japanese buddy and from what he told me, even couples who're married are simply choosing not to have kids or at least not more than 1. The cost of raising children has skyrocketed and the government is barely doing anything about it, while demanding Japanese couples have multiple children.

Cost is really determined more by the wants of the modern society than needs. The government is thus relatively powerless against changing people's lifestyle expectations (freedom of bring childless, work life balance, enrichment classes/holidays for the kids etc).

Results have shown that subsidies have marginal effect on the birth rate. You need to give a very significant subsidy to have a meaningful impact. Then, where does the money come from? It ultimately comes from the people.

 

[That Guy]

Cost is really determined more by the wants of the modern society than needs. The government is thus relatively powerless against changing people's lifestyle expectations (freedom of bring childless, work life balance, enrichment classes/holidays for the kids etc).

Results have shown that subsidies have marginal effect on the birth rate. You need to give a very significant subsidy to have a meaningful impact. Then, where does the money come from? It ultimately comes from the people.

You'd be right in most other aspects, but not being able to meet the basic needs (not wants) of a child is the determining factor here.

From powdered milk, clothes, schooling, to medical care. Raising a child has gotten very expensive over the last 2 to 4 decades, mostly as a result of rising global inflation.

 

[Mista]

From powdered milk, clothes, schooling, to medical care. Raising a child has gotten very expensive over the last 2 to 4 decades, mostly as a result of rising global inflation.

I would say it's more like the inflation of lifestyle expectations.

In SG, most families can afford such basic necessities. In fact, income/education and TFR are negatively correlated here. The higher the income/education, the lesser the number of kids. The higher the income, the higher the lifestyle expectations. So it's not really about affording the basic necessities. A high income family may consider enrichment classes, holidays and smartphone for their 7 year old kid as a necessity. The government is relatively powerless against such inflation of lifestyle expectations because human wants are never ending.

I reckon it's pretty much the same in other East Asian societies and developed countries.

Money won't solve low birth rate problem: Mr Lee

If former prime minister Lee Kuan Yew were in charge of Singapore today, he would introduce a baby bonus equal to two years of the average Singaporean's salary. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

If former prime minister Lee Kuan Yew were in charge of Singapore today, he would introduce a baby bonus equal to two years of the average Singaporean's salary.

This is not to boost the country's abysmal total fertility rate of 1.2. Rather, Mr Lee would do it to "prove that super-sized monetary incentives would only have a marginal effect on fertility rates".

Writing in his new book, One Man's View Of The World, Mr Lee makes clear he would offer this huge baby bonus for at least a year.

The experiment will "prove beyond any doubt that our low birth rates have nothing to do with economic or financial factors, such as high cost of living or lack of government help for parents", he says.

Instead, it is due to transformed lifestyles and mindsets which the Government is relatively powerless against, he argues in the 400-page book that is due to be launched today.

Declining fertility is the biggest threat to Singapore's survival, he says.

But, Mr Lee adds: "I cannot solve the problem, and I have given up. I have given the job to another generation of leaders. Hopefully, they or their successors will eventually find a way out."

He returns to the issue of low fertility often, pointing to it as the reason Japan, a country he once considered "peerless", is now on what he calls a "stroll into mediocrity".

The demographic changes in Singapore and Japan are similar, he notes; the difference lies in the unwillingness of the Japanese to "shade (the) problem with immigrants" like Singapore has done.

It is this intransigence about accepting foreigners and the deeply ingrained idea that the Japanese race must be kept "pure" that makes their continued decline inevitable, he says.

"If I were a young Japanese and I could speak English, I would probably choose to emigrate," he concludes bluntly.