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South Asian stability Workshop A Crisis Simulation Exercise

Mujraparty

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The South Asian Stability Workshop was a crisis simulation exercise held 19-22 March in Colombo, Sri Lanka, organized by the Center on Contemporary Conflict at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. The simulation convened retired Indian and Pakistani senior military officers and civilian analysts into two teams based on country of origin (India and Pakistan). Participants were confronted with a simulated geopolitical scenario and crisis triggering event, set in the year 2018. The simulation lasted for three “moves” and was moderated by a Control Group consisting primarily of U.S. experts on south Asian security.

The simulation begins with a terrorist attack at a cricket match in Jaipur in November 2018 that kills the Indian defense minister and hundreds of spectators. Evidence traces the attack to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in Pakistan, and Indian intelligence claims that some elements of the Pakistani government were complicit. Diplomacy fails to defuse tensions the India team subsequently enforces a “Maritime Exclusion Zone” (MEZ) off the Makran coast and begins air, artillery, and special forces strikes against Pakistani infrastructure and military targets along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. Specific targets included brigade headquarters, bridges, and alleged terrorist training camps. The Pakistan team was surprised by the intensity of India’s operations and interpreted them as formal acts of war. This reconfirms how non-state actors such as LeT could trigger a major crisis in South Asia at a moment’s notice.

LINK .

http://www.nps.edu/Academics/Centers/CCC/PASCC/Publications/2013/2013 008 South Asian Stability Workshop.pdf
 

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