Сирия: Су-35 в действии у турецкой границы Syria: Su-35 in action Turkish border
- Thread starter onebyone
- Start date
onebyone
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jul 2, 2014
- Messages
- 7,550
- Reaction score
- -6
- Country
- Location
The Saudis Are Stumbling. They May Take the Middle East with Them.
America’s leading Sunni ally is proving how easily hubris, delusion, and old-fashioned ineptitude can trump even bottomless wealth.
By Conn Hallinan, November 11, 2015.
Share
Print
\(Photo: Marviikad / Flickr Commons)
This article is a joint publication of Foreign Policy In Focus and TheNation.com.
For the past eight decades Saudi Arabia has been careful.
Using its vast oil wealth, it’s quietly spread its ultra-conservative brand of Islam throughout the Muslim world, secretly undermined secular regimes in its region, and prudently kept to the shadows while others did the fighting and dying. It was Saudi money that fueled the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan, underwrote Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Iran, and bankrolled Islamic movements and terrorist groups from the Caucasus to the Hindu Kush.
It wasn’t a modest foreign policy, but it was a discreet one.
Today that circumspect diplomacy is in ruins, and the House of Saud looks more vulnerable than it has since the country was founded in 1926. Unraveling the reasons for the current train wreck is a study in how easily hubris, delusion, and old-fashioned ineptness can trump even bottomless wealth.
Oil Slick
The kingdom’s first stumble was a strategic decision last fall to undermine competitors by scaling up its oil production and thus lowering the global price.
They figured that if the price of a barrel of oil dropped from over $100 to around $80, it would strangle competitors that relied on more expensive sources and new technologies, including the U.S. fracking industry, companies exploring the Arctic, and emergent producers like Brazil. That, in turn, would allow Riyadh to reclaim its shrinking share of the energy market. There was also the added benefit that lower oil prices would damage oil-reliant countries that the Saudis didn’t like — including Russia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Iran.
In one sense it worked. The American fracking industry is scaling back, the exploitation of Canada’s tar sands has slowed, and many Arctic drillers have closed up shop. And indeed, countries like Venezuela, Ecuador, and Russia have taken serious economic hits.
But it may have worked a little too well, particularly with China’s economic slowdown reducing demand and further depressing the price — a result that should have been entirely foreseeable but that the Saudis somehow missed.
The price of oil dropped from $115 a barrel in June 2014 to around $44 today. While it costs less than $10 to produce a barrel of Saudi oil, the Saudis need a price between $95 and $105 to balance their budget. The country’s leaders, who figured that oil wouldn’t fall below $80 a barrel — and then only for a few months — are now burning through their foreign reserves to make up the difference.
While oil prices will likely rise over the next five years, projections are that the price per barrel won’t top $65 for the foreseeable future. Saudi debt is on schedule to rise from 6.7 percent of GDP this year to 17.3 percent next year, and its 2015 budget deficit is $130 billion.
The country is now spending $10 billion a month in foreign exchange reserves to pay the bills and has been forced to borrow money on the international financial market. Recently the International Monetary Fund’s regional director, Masood Ahmed, warned Riyadh that the country would deplete its financial reserves in five years unless it drastically cut its budget.
Buying the Peace (While Funding War)
But the kingdom can’t do that.
When the Arab Spring broke out in 2011, Saudi Arabia headed it off by pumping $130 billion into the economy, raising wages, improving services, and providing jobs for its growing population. Saudi Arabia has one of the youngest populations in the Middle East, many of whom are unemployed and poorly educated. Some 25 percent of the population lives in poverty. Money keeps the lid on, but — even with the heavy-handed repression that characterizes Saudi political life — for how long?
Meanwhile they’re racking up bills with ill-advised foreign interventions. In March, the kingdom intervened in Yemen’s civil conflict, launching an air war, a naval blockade, and partial ground campaign on the pretense that Iran was behind one of the war’s factions — a conclusion not even the Americans agree with.
Again, the Saudis miscalculated, even though one of their major allies, Pakistan, warned them they were headed for trouble. In part, the kingdom’s hubris was fed by the illusion that U.S. support would make it a short war. The Americans are arming the Saudis, supplying them with bombing targets, backing up the naval blockade, and refueling their warplanes in mid-air.
But six months down the line the conflict has turned into a stalemate. The war has killed 5,000 people (including over 500 children), flattened cities, and alienated much of the local population. It’s also generated a horrendous food and medical crisis and created opportunities for the Islamic State and al-Qaeda to seize territory in southern Yemen. Efforts by the UN to investigate the possibility of war crimes were blocked by Saudi Arabia and the U.S.
As the Saudis are finding out, war is a very expensive business — a burden they could meet under normal circumstances, but not when the price of the kingdom’s only commodity, oil, is plummeting.
Nor is Yemen the only war that the Saudis are involved in. Riyadh, along with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, are underwriting many of the groups trying to overthrow Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. When anti-government demonstrations broke out there in 2011, the Saudis — along with the Americans and the Turks — calculated that Assad could be toppled in a few months.
But that was magical thinking. As bad as Assad is, a lot of Syrians — particularly minorities like Shiites, Christians, and Druze — were far more afraid of the Islamists from al-Qaeda and the Islamic State than they were of their own government. So the war has dragged on for four years and has now killed close to 250,000 people.
Once again, the Saudis miscalculated, though in this case they were hardly alone. The Syrian government turned out to be more resilient than it appeared. And Riyadh’s bottom line that Assad had to go just ended up bringing Iran and Russia into the picture, checkmating any direct intervention by the anti-Assad coalition. Any attempt to establish a no-fly zone against Assad will now have to confront the Russian air force — not something that anyone other thancertain U.S. presidential aspirants are eager to do.
The war has also generated a flood of refugees, deeply alarming the European Union, which finally seems to be listening to Moscow’s point about the consequences of overthrowing governments without a plan for who takes over. There’s nothing like millions of refugees headed in your direction to cause some serious re-thinking of strategic goals.
The Saudis goal of isolating Iran, meanwhile, is rapidly collapsing. The P5+1 — the U.S., China, Russia, Great Britain, France, and Germany — successfully completed a nuclear agreement with Tehran, despite every effort by the Saudis and Israel to torpedo it. And at Moscow’s insistence, Washington has reversed its opposition to Iran being included in peace talksaround Syria.
Bills Coming Due
Stymied in Syria, mired down in Yemen, and its finances increasingly fragile, the kingdom also faces internal unrest from its long marginalized Shia minority in the country’s east and south. To top it off, the Islamic State has called for the “liberation” of Mecca from the House of Saudand launched a bombing campaign aimed at the Kingdom’s Shiites.
This fall’s Hajj disaster — a stampede that killed more than 2,100 pilgrims and provoked anger at the Saudi authorities for their foot dragging on investigating it — have added to the royal family’s woes. The Saudis claim just 769 people were killed, a figure that no other country in the world accepts. And there are persistent rumors that the deadly stampede was caused when police blocked off an area in order to allow high-ranking Saudis special access to the holy sites.
Some of these missteps can be laid at the feet of the new king, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, and of a younger, more aggressive generation of Saudis he’s appointed to key positions. But Saudi Arabia’s troubles are also a reflection of a Middle East in transition. Exactly where it’s headed is by no means clear, but change is in the wind.
Iran is breaking out of its isolation. With its large, well-educated population, strong industrial base, and plentiful energy resources, it’s poised to play a major regional, if not international, role. Turkey is in the midst of a political upheaval, and there’s growing opposition among Turks to Ankara’s meddling in the Syrian civil war.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is impaled on its own policies, both foreign and domestic. “The expensive social contract between the Royal family and Saudi citizens will get more difficult, and eventually impossible to sustain if oil prices don’t recover,” Meghan L. O’Sullivan, director of the Geopolitics of Energy project at Harvard, told the New York Times.
However, the House of Saud has little choice but to keep pumping oil to pay for its wars and keep the internal peace. Yet more production drives down prices even further. And once the sanctions come off Iran, the oil glut will become worse.
While it’s still immensely wealthy, there are lots of bills coming due. It’s not clear the kingdom has the capital or the ability to meet them.
Foreign Policy In Focus columnist Conn Hallinan can be read at Dispatches from the Edge and the Middle Empire Series.
The Saudis Are Stumbling. They May Take the Middle East with Them. - FPIF
Neutron Bombing of Yemen May 2015 Confirmed
Breaking: Saudi Arabia moves planes to Turkey, Joint attack on Russian, Syrian and Kurdish forces begins (continually updated)
By Gordon Duff, Senior Editor on February 13, 2016
Confirmed: Russian and Syrian jets are on standby to shoot down any Turkish or Saudi plane that crosses into Syria. Turkey is prepared to close the Bosporus and attack Russian ships in the Mediterranean.
by Gordon Duff, Senior Editor with Jim W. Dean and input from Nahed al Husaini, Damascus, Gene Khrushchev, Moscow, Jeff Smith, Jim Hanke, Voijan Melosivic, Belgrade and others (Dr. Bassam Barakat, Damascus, Henry Kamens, Tbilisi)
(Video of Saudi/Israeli nuclear attack on Yemen)
Turkey has begun continuous shelling of YPG Kurds (pro-American) inside Syria for at least 3 hours; this is seen as a prelude to a ground attack on anti-ISIS forces inside Syria.
___________
Munich “cessation of hostilities” is off to a rocky start
[ Editor’s Note, 2:30 pm ET: VT is back up after being hacked for several hours when one key story was up — the one below on the Saudis moving tactical nukes to Turkey, to be closer to the NW Syrian battleground, and the NATO tripwire for any attack that might be launched on Syria after some staged provocation.
This comes the day after Munich started, with the Turks shelling Azaz, 4 to 5 miles south of the Turkish border — the last town on that supply road to Aleppo.
With this shelling, Turkey is in effect saying they are initiating an “artillery buffer zone”, something most would consider a repudiation of the Munich cessation of hostilities. If the Kurds and Syria can move closer to their own borders, they can mine the roads to slow down any Turkish advance.
We also suspect today’s hacking to have been an eavesdropping event to delay a new story we are working on — how Turkey has purchased swine flu from an employee at the Lugar lab in Georgia, which already has killed 1000 in Ukraine, been released in Russia, and surprise, surprise beginning to show up in the Turkish Kurdish resistance.
A $30-million budgeted American Research lab in Tbilisi that came in at $100 million with a contractor making a lot of money. Are you surprised?
This morning our sources are reporting that Turkey is bringing into the Syrian Kurdish region, via the age old ambulance cover, a part of its biological weapons warfare that it thinks it will be able to deny. But after the big Sarin gas attack in Syria that was tracked back to Turkish involvement, the Lugar lab and other bioweapons undercover labs ringing the Russian Federation have been watched very carefully for the obvious threat that they were.
Silverman paid a price for his reporting
VT readers know that Henry Kamens and our own Jeffrey Silverman have been all over the story for several years now, to the extent that the Lugar lab had to be “cleaned” for a press tour.
We do not know how much US and NATO cooperation there may be, if any, on this. Erdogan was busting a guy this week for denouncing the US for working with the Syrian Kurds, a touché to Erdogan for not really fighting ISIL, but using that as a cover to run his war on the Kurds.
Turkey and the Saudis see the jihadis being rolled up in Syria in a couple of months, so they are holding little territory to bargain with at the future peace talks, if there ever are any.
We have a touch and go situation in the success of the Syrian-Russian anti-terrorism campaign. The US coalition, the Arab League, all those that supported the overthrow of Syria have a lot of egg on their face, as support for Assad and the Syrian army is going up every day — not the kind of situation in which the regime change crowd want to negotiate. You just can’t make this stuff up… Jim W. Dean ]
____________
Tactical nukes will be used in any major preemptive strike to assure retaliation ability is destroyed on day one
– First published … February 13, 2016 –
Our sources confirm that Saudi Arabia has delivered tactical nuclear weapons to Turkey. Turkey already has 84 nuclear weapons at Incirlik Air Base under NATO control. We have confirmed that both Saudi Arabia and Turkey have American planes, both F 15 and F 16 modified for nuclear attack by Israel. America has removed all nuclear attack planes from Turkey under orders of President Obama.
We have confirmed that Turkey has a contingency plan to seize the NATO nuclear arsenal at Incirlik with the help of Saudi Special Forces, who have been trained in Israel to defeat US nuclear weapon security measures.
We have a confirmation that Saudi Arabia is moving planes to the American nuclear base in Turkey. This week US planes bombed civilians in Aleppo from this same base. Word from Saudi Arabia and Russia is that they expect a full scale Turkish invasion in response to Kurdish YPG consolidation, with American help, of new positions which would block Turkey’s access to its ISIS partners in Syria.
Both high level Russian and Syrian sources contacted this morning have confirmed that a much broader war is imminent.
Turkey has officially announced that they are ready to move into Syria against the US backed YPG who they deem as a terrorist group. Turkey has yet to attack ISIS and is only fighting Kurds with the exception of the Erbil regional group in Iraq. There is conclusive evidence that both Erbil and Ankara are fully behind ISIS.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said. “They (Saudi military) came, did a reconnaissance of the base. At the moment it is not clear how many planes will come.”
Turkey supplies ISIS in Iraq through the Duhok road aided by the Erbil regime, who have turned against both Baghdad and other Kurdish forces.
America’s leading Sunni ally is proving how easily hubris, delusion, and old-fashioned ineptitude can trump even bottomless wealth.
By Conn Hallinan, November 11, 2015.
Share
Print
\(Photo: Marviikad / Flickr Commons)
This article is a joint publication of Foreign Policy In Focus and TheNation.com.
For the past eight decades Saudi Arabia has been careful.
Using its vast oil wealth, it’s quietly spread its ultra-conservative brand of Islam throughout the Muslim world, secretly undermined secular regimes in its region, and prudently kept to the shadows while others did the fighting and dying. It was Saudi money that fueled the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan, underwrote Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Iran, and bankrolled Islamic movements and terrorist groups from the Caucasus to the Hindu Kush.
It wasn’t a modest foreign policy, but it was a discreet one.
Today that circumspect diplomacy is in ruins, and the House of Saud looks more vulnerable than it has since the country was founded in 1926. Unraveling the reasons for the current train wreck is a study in how easily hubris, delusion, and old-fashioned ineptness can trump even bottomless wealth.
Oil Slick
The kingdom’s first stumble was a strategic decision last fall to undermine competitors by scaling up its oil production and thus lowering the global price.
They figured that if the price of a barrel of oil dropped from over $100 to around $80, it would strangle competitors that relied on more expensive sources and new technologies, including the U.S. fracking industry, companies exploring the Arctic, and emergent producers like Brazil. That, in turn, would allow Riyadh to reclaim its shrinking share of the energy market. There was also the added benefit that lower oil prices would damage oil-reliant countries that the Saudis didn’t like — including Russia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Iran.
In one sense it worked. The American fracking industry is scaling back, the exploitation of Canada’s tar sands has slowed, and many Arctic drillers have closed up shop. And indeed, countries like Venezuela, Ecuador, and Russia have taken serious economic hits.
But it may have worked a little too well, particularly with China’s economic slowdown reducing demand and further depressing the price — a result that should have been entirely foreseeable but that the Saudis somehow missed.
The price of oil dropped from $115 a barrel in June 2014 to around $44 today. While it costs less than $10 to produce a barrel of Saudi oil, the Saudis need a price between $95 and $105 to balance their budget. The country’s leaders, who figured that oil wouldn’t fall below $80 a barrel — and then only for a few months — are now burning through their foreign reserves to make up the difference.
While oil prices will likely rise over the next five years, projections are that the price per barrel won’t top $65 for the foreseeable future. Saudi debt is on schedule to rise from 6.7 percent of GDP this year to 17.3 percent next year, and its 2015 budget deficit is $130 billion.
The country is now spending $10 billion a month in foreign exchange reserves to pay the bills and has been forced to borrow money on the international financial market. Recently the International Monetary Fund’s regional director, Masood Ahmed, warned Riyadh that the country would deplete its financial reserves in five years unless it drastically cut its budget.
Buying the Peace (While Funding War)
But the kingdom can’t do that.
When the Arab Spring broke out in 2011, Saudi Arabia headed it off by pumping $130 billion into the economy, raising wages, improving services, and providing jobs for its growing population. Saudi Arabia has one of the youngest populations in the Middle East, many of whom are unemployed and poorly educated. Some 25 percent of the population lives in poverty. Money keeps the lid on, but — even with the heavy-handed repression that characterizes Saudi political life — for how long?
Meanwhile they’re racking up bills with ill-advised foreign interventions. In March, the kingdom intervened in Yemen’s civil conflict, launching an air war, a naval blockade, and partial ground campaign on the pretense that Iran was behind one of the war’s factions — a conclusion not even the Americans agree with.
Again, the Saudis miscalculated, even though one of their major allies, Pakistan, warned them they were headed for trouble. In part, the kingdom’s hubris was fed by the illusion that U.S. support would make it a short war. The Americans are arming the Saudis, supplying them with bombing targets, backing up the naval blockade, and refueling their warplanes in mid-air.
But six months down the line the conflict has turned into a stalemate. The war has killed 5,000 people (including over 500 children), flattened cities, and alienated much of the local population. It’s also generated a horrendous food and medical crisis and created opportunities for the Islamic State and al-Qaeda to seize territory in southern Yemen. Efforts by the UN to investigate the possibility of war crimes were blocked by Saudi Arabia and the U.S.
As the Saudis are finding out, war is a very expensive business — a burden they could meet under normal circumstances, but not when the price of the kingdom’s only commodity, oil, is plummeting.
Nor is Yemen the only war that the Saudis are involved in. Riyadh, along with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, are underwriting many of the groups trying to overthrow Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. When anti-government demonstrations broke out there in 2011, the Saudis — along with the Americans and the Turks — calculated that Assad could be toppled in a few months.
But that was magical thinking. As bad as Assad is, a lot of Syrians — particularly minorities like Shiites, Christians, and Druze — were far more afraid of the Islamists from al-Qaeda and the Islamic State than they were of their own government. So the war has dragged on for four years and has now killed close to 250,000 people.
Once again, the Saudis miscalculated, though in this case they were hardly alone. The Syrian government turned out to be more resilient than it appeared. And Riyadh’s bottom line that Assad had to go just ended up bringing Iran and Russia into the picture, checkmating any direct intervention by the anti-Assad coalition. Any attempt to establish a no-fly zone against Assad will now have to confront the Russian air force — not something that anyone other thancertain U.S. presidential aspirants are eager to do.
The war has also generated a flood of refugees, deeply alarming the European Union, which finally seems to be listening to Moscow’s point about the consequences of overthrowing governments without a plan for who takes over. There’s nothing like millions of refugees headed in your direction to cause some serious re-thinking of strategic goals.
The Saudis goal of isolating Iran, meanwhile, is rapidly collapsing. The P5+1 — the U.S., China, Russia, Great Britain, France, and Germany — successfully completed a nuclear agreement with Tehran, despite every effort by the Saudis and Israel to torpedo it. And at Moscow’s insistence, Washington has reversed its opposition to Iran being included in peace talksaround Syria.
Bills Coming Due
Stymied in Syria, mired down in Yemen, and its finances increasingly fragile, the kingdom also faces internal unrest from its long marginalized Shia minority in the country’s east and south. To top it off, the Islamic State has called for the “liberation” of Mecca from the House of Saudand launched a bombing campaign aimed at the Kingdom’s Shiites.
This fall’s Hajj disaster — a stampede that killed more than 2,100 pilgrims and provoked anger at the Saudi authorities for their foot dragging on investigating it — have added to the royal family’s woes. The Saudis claim just 769 people were killed, a figure that no other country in the world accepts. And there are persistent rumors that the deadly stampede was caused when police blocked off an area in order to allow high-ranking Saudis special access to the holy sites.
Some of these missteps can be laid at the feet of the new king, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, and of a younger, more aggressive generation of Saudis he’s appointed to key positions. But Saudi Arabia’s troubles are also a reflection of a Middle East in transition. Exactly where it’s headed is by no means clear, but change is in the wind.
Iran is breaking out of its isolation. With its large, well-educated population, strong industrial base, and plentiful energy resources, it’s poised to play a major regional, if not international, role. Turkey is in the midst of a political upheaval, and there’s growing opposition among Turks to Ankara’s meddling in the Syrian civil war.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is impaled on its own policies, both foreign and domestic. “The expensive social contract between the Royal family and Saudi citizens will get more difficult, and eventually impossible to sustain if oil prices don’t recover,” Meghan L. O’Sullivan, director of the Geopolitics of Energy project at Harvard, told the New York Times.
However, the House of Saud has little choice but to keep pumping oil to pay for its wars and keep the internal peace. Yet more production drives down prices even further. And once the sanctions come off Iran, the oil glut will become worse.
While it’s still immensely wealthy, there are lots of bills coming due. It’s not clear the kingdom has the capital or the ability to meet them.
Foreign Policy In Focus columnist Conn Hallinan can be read at Dispatches from the Edge and the Middle Empire Series.
The Saudis Are Stumbling. They May Take the Middle East with Them. - FPIF
Neutron Bombing of Yemen May 2015 Confirmed
Breaking: Saudi Arabia moves planes to Turkey, Joint attack on Russian, Syrian and Kurdish forces begins (continually updated)
By Gordon Duff, Senior Editor on February 13, 2016
Confirmed: Russian and Syrian jets are on standby to shoot down any Turkish or Saudi plane that crosses into Syria. Turkey is prepared to close the Bosporus and attack Russian ships in the Mediterranean.
by Gordon Duff, Senior Editor with Jim W. Dean and input from Nahed al Husaini, Damascus, Gene Khrushchev, Moscow, Jeff Smith, Jim Hanke, Voijan Melosivic, Belgrade and others (Dr. Bassam Barakat, Damascus, Henry Kamens, Tbilisi)
(Video of Saudi/Israeli nuclear attack on Yemen)
Turkey has begun continuous shelling of YPG Kurds (pro-American) inside Syria for at least 3 hours; this is seen as a prelude to a ground attack on anti-ISIS forces inside Syria.
___________
Munich “cessation of hostilities” is off to a rocky start
[ Editor’s Note, 2:30 pm ET: VT is back up after being hacked for several hours when one key story was up — the one below on the Saudis moving tactical nukes to Turkey, to be closer to the NW Syrian battleground, and the NATO tripwire for any attack that might be launched on Syria after some staged provocation.
This comes the day after Munich started, with the Turks shelling Azaz, 4 to 5 miles south of the Turkish border — the last town on that supply road to Aleppo.
With this shelling, Turkey is in effect saying they are initiating an “artillery buffer zone”, something most would consider a repudiation of the Munich cessation of hostilities. If the Kurds and Syria can move closer to their own borders, they can mine the roads to slow down any Turkish advance.
We also suspect today’s hacking to have been an eavesdropping event to delay a new story we are working on — how Turkey has purchased swine flu from an employee at the Lugar lab in Georgia, which already has killed 1000 in Ukraine, been released in Russia, and surprise, surprise beginning to show up in the Turkish Kurdish resistance.
A $30-million budgeted American Research lab in Tbilisi that came in at $100 million with a contractor making a lot of money. Are you surprised?
This morning our sources are reporting that Turkey is bringing into the Syrian Kurdish region, via the age old ambulance cover, a part of its biological weapons warfare that it thinks it will be able to deny. But after the big Sarin gas attack in Syria that was tracked back to Turkish involvement, the Lugar lab and other bioweapons undercover labs ringing the Russian Federation have been watched very carefully for the obvious threat that they were.
Silverman paid a price for his reporting
VT readers know that Henry Kamens and our own Jeffrey Silverman have been all over the story for several years now, to the extent that the Lugar lab had to be “cleaned” for a press tour.
We do not know how much US and NATO cooperation there may be, if any, on this. Erdogan was busting a guy this week for denouncing the US for working with the Syrian Kurds, a touché to Erdogan for not really fighting ISIL, but using that as a cover to run his war on the Kurds.
Turkey and the Saudis see the jihadis being rolled up in Syria in a couple of months, so they are holding little territory to bargain with at the future peace talks, if there ever are any.
We have a touch and go situation in the success of the Syrian-Russian anti-terrorism campaign. The US coalition, the Arab League, all those that supported the overthrow of Syria have a lot of egg on their face, as support for Assad and the Syrian army is going up every day — not the kind of situation in which the regime change crowd want to negotiate. You just can’t make this stuff up… Jim W. Dean ]
____________
Tactical nukes will be used in any major preemptive strike to assure retaliation ability is destroyed on day one
– First published … February 13, 2016 –
Our sources confirm that Saudi Arabia has delivered tactical nuclear weapons to Turkey. Turkey already has 84 nuclear weapons at Incirlik Air Base under NATO control. We have confirmed that both Saudi Arabia and Turkey have American planes, both F 15 and F 16 modified for nuclear attack by Israel. America has removed all nuclear attack planes from Turkey under orders of President Obama.
We have confirmed that Turkey has a contingency plan to seize the NATO nuclear arsenal at Incirlik with the help of Saudi Special Forces, who have been trained in Israel to defeat US nuclear weapon security measures.
We have a confirmation that Saudi Arabia is moving planes to the American nuclear base in Turkey. This week US planes bombed civilians in Aleppo from this same base. Word from Saudi Arabia and Russia is that they expect a full scale Turkish invasion in response to Kurdish YPG consolidation, with American help, of new positions which would block Turkey’s access to its ISIS partners in Syria.
Both high level Russian and Syrian sources contacted this morning have confirmed that a much broader war is imminent.
Turkey has officially announced that they are ready to move into Syria against the US backed YPG who they deem as a terrorist group. Turkey has yet to attack ISIS and is only fighting Kurds with the exception of the Erbil regional group in Iraq. There is conclusive evidence that both Erbil and Ankara are fully behind ISIS.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said. “They (Saudi military) came, did a reconnaissance of the base. At the moment it is not clear how many planes will come.”
Turkey supplies ISIS in Iraq through the Duhok road aided by the Erbil regime, who have turned against both Baghdad and other Kurdish forces.
onebyone
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jul 2, 2014
- Messages
- 7,550
- Reaction score
- -6
- Country
- Location
__________
… from Southfront:
Amid Turkish preparations for a military intervention in Syria, main stream media and think tanks prefer to provide political speculations and local rumors instead of facts and analysis. SouthFront: Analysis & Intelligence stands on another ground and provides an exclusive paper studying the Turkish military grouping which will be likely used in this operation.
We also recommend that you view an exclusive video ‘Foreign Policy Diary – Turkey’s military intervention to Syria‘,which covers the possible results of this act of aggression.
____________
Written by Brian Kalman exclusively for SouthFront: Analysis & Intelligence. Brian Kalman is a management professional in the marine transportation industry. He was an officer in the US Navy for eleven years. He currently resides and works in the Caribbean.
Recent public comments by the Turkish government have hinted at a possible invasion into Syrian territory to “stabilize” the situation and secure Turkey’s national security. Significant clashes between Turkish army and security forces with elements of the YPG and PKK, which have exacted a costly toll on the Kurdish civilian population have been raging in southern Turkey and northern Syria in recent months. Russian satellite surveillance and human intelligence employed by both Russian and Syria in the region have confirmed the build-up of troops and material on the border.
It is reasonable to believe that Turkey is preparing to salvage its failed policy of supporting Islamic fundamentalist mercenaries and terrorist groups in Syria by invading and establishing a safe area for these groups along its southern border with Syria, while at the same time dealing a crushing blow to the Kurdish forces that have been successful in fighting them. Turkey is not only trying to topple the Assad government in Syrian, but is also trying to liquidate the Kurdish threat both in Iraq and Syria, as well as within its own borders.
Turkey’s membership in NATO complicates its plans of invasion. Unless Turkey is itself attacked, the NATO alliance is not obligated to defend the nation. Turkey will have to engineer a provocation that frames it as the target of an aggression either by Kurdish forces from beyond its borders or by Syrian or Russian forces combating its terrorist allies in Syria. Such a false flag provocation in not outside of the realm of possibility. When a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24, claims that the bomber had strayed into Turkish airspace for a number of minutes and ignored radio warnings from the Turkish aircraft were proven to be patently false.
A year earlier in 2014, an audio recording of Turkish officials, including the head of the Security Service (MIT), Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Foreign Minister and the Undersecretary to the Foreign Minister discussing staging an attack on the Tomb of Suleiman Shah (a sovereign piece of Turkish territory) in Syria and using it as a pretext to intervene in Syria were leaked anonymously on YouTube.
The Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan responded by banning YouTube in Turkey, in affect giving support to the recordings authenticity. Now that the Syrian government has the upper hand militarily, gaining back territory and destroying, surrounding or pushing back various Turkish-backed terrorist forces, Turkey may be ready to engineer a new excuse to invade.
It is most likely that elements of the Turkish Second Army are positioned along the southern border with Syria, and will form the nucleus of any invasion force. The 2nd Army is responsible for defending Southwestern Turkey. Its headquarters is based in Malatya, with approximately 100,000 troops under its command. The army is comprised of three corps, the 4th, 6thand 7th which are composed of the following units:
It is surmised that most of the 2nd Army has been committed to a possible invasion or a limited offensive operation against the forces of the YPG all along the border. The map below shows the position of these units:
Photographic evidence shows that the mechanized and armored forces being used in the internal operations against the Kurds within Turkey and Syria and also the incursion into northern Iraq, are composed of relatively modern tanks and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs).
Reports have recently been made public that over 1,000 pieces of military equipment, likely consisting of MBTs, IFVs, self-propelled and towed artillery and their prime movers, as well as trucks and light vehicles have been massing in staging areas just north of the border. Turkish military spokesmen have stressed that they have positioned approximately 30 percent of the Turkish land forces along the border with Syria.
The troops belonging to these units are highly trained and motivated. They have been engaged in fighting in the border regions for many years and know the territory well. They have also been engaged in fighting the irregular forces of the PKK in urban areas for decades. The forces assembled are equipped with modern, effective combat arms and equipment that has been proven in battle.
From video and photographic evidence, Turkey has deployed at least the following types of equipment:
MBTs:
A modernized M-60T (Sabra Mk. II) on maneuvers.
… from Southfront:
Amid Turkish preparations for a military intervention in Syria, main stream media and think tanks prefer to provide political speculations and local rumors instead of facts and analysis. SouthFront: Analysis & Intelligence stands on another ground and provides an exclusive paper studying the Turkish military grouping which will be likely used in this operation.
We also recommend that you view an exclusive video ‘Foreign Policy Diary – Turkey’s military intervention to Syria‘,which covers the possible results of this act of aggression.
____________
Written by Brian Kalman exclusively for SouthFront: Analysis & Intelligence. Brian Kalman is a management professional in the marine transportation industry. He was an officer in the US Navy for eleven years. He currently resides and works in the Caribbean.
Recent public comments by the Turkish government have hinted at a possible invasion into Syrian territory to “stabilize” the situation and secure Turkey’s national security. Significant clashes between Turkish army and security forces with elements of the YPG and PKK, which have exacted a costly toll on the Kurdish civilian population have been raging in southern Turkey and northern Syria in recent months. Russian satellite surveillance and human intelligence employed by both Russian and Syria in the region have confirmed the build-up of troops and material on the border.
It is reasonable to believe that Turkey is preparing to salvage its failed policy of supporting Islamic fundamentalist mercenaries and terrorist groups in Syria by invading and establishing a safe area for these groups along its southern border with Syria, while at the same time dealing a crushing blow to the Kurdish forces that have been successful in fighting them. Turkey is not only trying to topple the Assad government in Syrian, but is also trying to liquidate the Kurdish threat both in Iraq and Syria, as well as within its own borders.
Turkey’s membership in NATO complicates its plans of invasion. Unless Turkey is itself attacked, the NATO alliance is not obligated to defend the nation. Turkey will have to engineer a provocation that frames it as the target of an aggression either by Kurdish forces from beyond its borders or by Syrian or Russian forces combating its terrorist allies in Syria. Such a false flag provocation in not outside of the realm of possibility. When a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24, claims that the bomber had strayed into Turkish airspace for a number of minutes and ignored radio warnings from the Turkish aircraft were proven to be patently false.
A year earlier in 2014, an audio recording of Turkish officials, including the head of the Security Service (MIT), Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Foreign Minister and the Undersecretary to the Foreign Minister discussing staging an attack on the Tomb of Suleiman Shah (a sovereign piece of Turkish territory) in Syria and using it as a pretext to intervene in Syria were leaked anonymously on YouTube.
The Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan responded by banning YouTube in Turkey, in affect giving support to the recordings authenticity. Now that the Syrian government has the upper hand militarily, gaining back territory and destroying, surrounding or pushing back various Turkish-backed terrorist forces, Turkey may be ready to engineer a new excuse to invade.
It is most likely that elements of the Turkish Second Army are positioned along the southern border with Syria, and will form the nucleus of any invasion force. The 2nd Army is responsible for defending Southwestern Turkey. Its headquarters is based in Malatya, with approximately 100,000 troops under its command. The army is comprised of three corps, the 4th, 6thand 7th which are composed of the following units:
- 3rd Tactical Infantry Division
- 28th Mechanized Infantry Brigade
- 58th Artillery Brigade
- 1st Commando Brigade
- 2nd Commando Brigade
- 5th Armored Brigade
- 39th Mechanized Infantry Brigade
- 106th Artillery Regiment
- 34th Border Brigade
- 16th Mechanized Brigade (Diyarbakır)
- 20th Armored Brigade
- 70th Mechanized Infantry Brigade
- 172nd Armored Brigade
- 2nd Motorized Infantry Brigade
- 6th Motorized Infantry Brigade
- 3rd Commando Brigade
- 107th Artillery Regiment
It is surmised that most of the 2nd Army has been committed to a possible invasion or a limited offensive operation against the forces of the YPG all along the border. The map below shows the position of these units:
Photographic evidence shows that the mechanized and armored forces being used in the internal operations against the Kurds within Turkey and Syria and also the incursion into northern Iraq, are composed of relatively modern tanks and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs).
Reports have recently been made public that over 1,000 pieces of military equipment, likely consisting of MBTs, IFVs, self-propelled and towed artillery and their prime movers, as well as trucks and light vehicles have been massing in staging areas just north of the border. Turkish military spokesmen have stressed that they have positioned approximately 30 percent of the Turkish land forces along the border with Syria.
The troops belonging to these units are highly trained and motivated. They have been engaged in fighting in the border regions for many years and know the territory well. They have also been engaged in fighting the irregular forces of the PKK in urban areas for decades. The forces assembled are equipped with modern, effective combat arms and equipment that has been proven in battle.
From video and photographic evidence, Turkey has deployed at least the following types of equipment:
MBTs:
- M-60T (Turkish version of the Israeli Sabra Mk.II).Turkey has 170 M-60-Ts in service. This modernized and up-gunner version of the M-60, is an Israeli design. It boasts better armor protection than the M-60A3, as well as a more powerful 120mm main gun and better fire-control and imaging systems.
A modernized M-60T (Sabra Mk. II) on maneuvers.
onebyone
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jul 2, 2014
- Messages
- 7,550
- Reaction score
- -6
- Country
- Location
- M-60 ATT and A3. Turkey has 762 of these U.S. designed tanks in service. This is a sound tank design, but is not on par with later generation MBTs. Armored units, possibly of the 5th, 20th or 172nd Armored Brigades utilizing large numbers of these tanks have been seen deploying to the southern border in the previous weeks. They were used during incursions into Syria and Iraq in earlier operations to combat Kurdish forces in both nations.
M-60 ATT/A3s deployed in northern Iraq in 2015, most likely of the 172nd Armored Brigade.
- Leopard 2A4. Turkey has 354 of these highly capable German manufactured tanks. It does not appear that these MBTs are in use by any of the armored units currently deployed in operations against the Kurds in the south of the country, nor incursions into Syria or Iraq. It is most likely that these more capable MBTs are with units tasked with guarding Turkey’s border with Russia and the Caucasus, where they would have to fight against a much more capable adversary, utilizing more modern and capable MBTS and Anti-Tank (AT) weapons.
- FNSS ACV-15. Based on the Turkish Army’s experience with the U.S. M113, the ACV-15 is an indigenous design that has many variants including APCs, Mortar Carriers, Ambulances, and ARVs. The IFV is equipped with a 25mm cannon.
A recent photograph of a mechanized unit equipped with ACV-15s assembled in the Turkish town of Suruc, approximately 100 miles north of the Syrian city and stronghold of ISIS, Raqqa.
MRAPs:
- Kirpi (Hedgehog). Turkey acquired MRAPs after the U.S. invasion of Iraq exhibited the weakness of most light vehicles when confronted with IEDs and urban ambush. Turkey has between 200 and 600 MRAPs of this indigenous design.
Turkish Army Kirpi MRAP on duty somewhere in southern Turkey.
- Approximately 1200 of these small MRAPs exist in the Turkish Land Forces inventory. These are small utility vehicles much like the Russian Tiger or U.S. HUMMV; however they have increased survivability against mines and IEDs, as they were purpose built to deal with these threats. They are widely used by all Turkish land forces, including border and internal security forces.
Cobras being utilized by a Turkish Army Border Brigade in southern Turkey.
Self- Propelled Artillery:
- T-155 Firtina self-propelled howitzer. The T-155 was the product of a joint venture with South Korea to develop a more modern self-propelled howitzer. The South Korean variant is known as the K9. The Turkish Firtina makes use of the chassis and 155mm/L52 gun of the South Korean K-9, but uses an indigenous turret design, and navigation, communications and fire-control systems. There are at least 280 units in service with the Turkish Army.
T-155 self-propelled howitzers on the firing line.
- M-52T self-propelled howitzer. A major modernization program was conducted in the 1990s to modernize a weapons system that was developed in the 1950s by the United States. The vehicle was up-gunned from a 105mm howitzer to a German produced 155mm L39 gun. Turret design was modernized and electronics systems were brought up to modern standards including communications and fire-control. There are at least 360 units in service.
M-52Ts being moved into forward positions via prime movers in recent weeks. This is faster, more efficient and aids in overall maintenance when moving military hardware over long distances.
Air-Defense Artillery:
- Atilgan and Zipkin short range AA missile system. These pedestal mounted air defense systems (PMAD) have been mounted on various vehicles, including the ubiquitous ACV-15 and M-113. They can fire Igla or Stinger short range anti-aircraft missiles. They are deployed with mechanized and armored units to give them their own short range defense against both low flying fixed wing and rotary wing attack aircraft.
This Atilgan unit appears to be based on an M-113 chassis. It is forward deployed with a tank platoon equipped with M-60 ATT/A3s. This picture was taken in 2015 in northern Iraq.
onebyone
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jul 2, 2014
- Messages
- 7,550
- Reaction score
- -6
- Country
- Location
The most obvious strategic aim of a Turkish invasion into Syrian territory would be to secure a sizable “safe zone” for Turkish-backed insurgents and terrorist forces in northern Syria. Not only would this salvage the Turkish proxies for future use, possibly in guerilla style attacks and acts of terrorism against Syria, but would more importantly drive a wedge between the Kurdish YPG forces in Northwestern Syria (north of Idlib Province) and those located in the Northeastern Syria (east of Jarabulus).
Zone of the expected Turkish military invasion
The Turkish government is determined to make sure that the YPG does not gain control of the Kurdish dominated regions in an unbroken area all along the border. The YPG has recently been successful in attacks against Turkish-backed terrorists in small offensives in this “wedge” between YPG areas of control. These offensives have been backed by Russian air operations and with airdrops of weapons and ammunition in recent weeks.
It is most likely the prospect of greater territorial gains by the Kurds that the Turkish Army will be deployed to prevent. How the Turkish military command plans to carry out such an operation successfully, and how the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russia will respond will determine the course of the conflict and undoubtedly the odds of a wider war.
An initial observation of the forward deployment of Turkish Army units along the border with Syria gives hints as to their tactical employment in a possible invasion. Two armored brigades and two mechanized brigades are positioned just north of the border, adjacent to the area that is currently controlled by various terrorist groups and militias under the umbrella of support of the Turkish regime, and that lies in between the YPG dominated areas.
Their axis of advance would cover, approximately the area between Azaz and Jarabulus, and would probably not extend beyond the depth of 20 to 25 miles (30 to 40 km).
Two armored and two mechanized brigades, representing approximately 15,000 to 20,000 men would be able to mount a fast assault. These units are highly mobile, flexible, and self-sufficient and pack a great deal of offensive power. They would most likely be aided by elements of at least one commando brigade. They could cover the 20-25 mile distance quickly and consolidate the area rapidly, and would be maintaining short lines of communication and supply.
Fixed wing and rotary wing attack aircraft would be assigned to provide air cover to the ground operation. The initial assault would most certainly be followed up by the advance of infantry and border patrol units to establish and provide internal security for the long haul.
Click to see the full-size map
The unknown variable for the Turkish military planners is the reaction of the Russian forces deployed within Syria, at the request of the only legitimate government of that country. Will the Russian air forces deployed in Syria react to thwart the incursion of a hostile force that aims to directly undermine the sovereignty of Syria?
Will Russian air defense forces based at Khmeimim airbase or naval vessels positioned offshore fire upon Turkish aircraft that violate the sovereign airspace of Syria engaged in providing air cover for Turkish ground forces, and that could possibly threaten the Russian position in Latakia? There are a number of unknown variables that present immense uncertainties in the Turkish strategic calculus when planning such an undertaking.
The recent Russian snap drills by forces in the Southern Military District, which included the participation of airborne and air transport units, was a clear message to Turkey that Russia was prepared to defend her borders and her national interests in Syria. This is only the latest in a series of clear messages by the Russian leadership that it will not tolerate a Turkish sabotage of its campaign in Syria to restore order and to stabilize the situation in the country.
The question remains, does the Erdogan regime believe that the potential benefits of setting up a de-facto safe haven for its proxies in Syria outweigh the potential of direct military conflict with Russia?
The determination of the Erdogan regime to undermine the sovereignty of Syria by supporting, both logistically, materially and monetarily various factions of Islamic fundamentalist mercenaries and terrorist groups, has only harmed the security of Turkey and strengthened the position of their long time enemy the Kurds.
The past five years have enriched the bank accounts of the Erdogan family and their cronies through the illegal oil trade, human trafficking of refuges, and the smuggling of arms; however, the Turkish people have suffered from a bloody crack-down on the Kurdish minority in the south of the country, terrorist bombings, an assault on civil rights, press censorship and the erosion of Turkish-Russian relations to a level not seen since the darkest days of the Cold War.
This policy of intervention in the affairs of both Syria and Iraq, the support of a multitude of Islamic terrorist groups, and the undermining of neighboring countries to the benefit of a ruling elite in Turkey has been disastrous. It may turn out in the end that Turkey itself has been the most negatively affected by Erdogan’s misguided policies.
NATO and Europe as a whole have been undermined, and it remains to be seen how much longer even they will tolerate the situation. Is NATO ready to be dragged into a war with Russia as a result of Turkey’s aggressive and misguided foreign policy? A pretext for invasion that casts Turkey as the victim will have to be engineered by the Erdogan regime prior to any incursion south in order to maintain NATO support.
By bringing to light, in embarrassing detail, the Erdogan regime’s illegal activities in direct support of internationally recognized terrorist groups and the illegal plunder of the oil resources of Syria and Iraq and the establishment and operation of the logistics network that facilitates the sale of the oil at great profit to the Erdogan family itself, Russia has laid the truth bear to the world.
In so doing, they have also allowed Erdogan a way to back off the stage, so to speak, and abandon his misguided aspirations in Syria. Continued support by NATO and the United States in light of the ugly realities of Turkey’s actions in the conflict, will only undermine both parties’ legitimacy in the eyes of the international community.
Turkey most definitely has the military power in place to successfully carry out a limited invasion to establish a terrorist safe zone and to prohibit the consolidation of the entire northern border under the control of the Kurds; however the costs if this invasion is contested by Russia and Syria nullify any potential benefits. In short, further efforts to salvage a disastrous foreign policy on the part of the Erdogan regime through force of arms will only hasten their political isolation and destruction.
The Turkish people deserve better, and as political opposition continues to grow in the government and on the street, a disastrous invasion just may push the current regime out of power. This would be a positive development; however, the very real possibility of a Turkish incursion developing into a wider war would prove disastrous to the entire world.
From RT.com:
Turkish military shells Kurdish targets in northern Syria – Kurds to RT
Turkey’s army has shelled targets near the city of Azaz in northwestern Syria, Kurdish sources on the ground tell RT.
The Turkish shelling of Kurdish positions has continued for more than three hours almost uninterruptedly, a Kurdish source told RT, adding that the Turkish forces are using mortars and missiles and firing from the Turkish border not far from the city of Azaz in the Aleppo Governorate.
The source also said that that there were casualties, but the exact number is unknown. The Turkish forces fired shells at the villages of Malikiya and Tannab, a source told RT, citing a statement by the Jaysh al-Thuwwar group. A source in the Turkish government confirmed to Reuters that the Turkish military had shelled Kurdish militia targets near Azaz on Saturday.
“The Turkish Armed Forces fired shells at PYD positions in the Azaz area,” the source said, referring to the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), which Ankara views as a terrorist group.
A Kurdish official confirmed to Reuters that the shelling had targeted the Menagh air base located south of Azaz. According to the official, the base had been captured by the Jaysh al-Thuwwar rebel group, which is an ally of PYD and a member of the Syria Democratic Forces alliance.
Syrian Kurds are actively engaged in the fight against the Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) terrorist group and have been recently described as “some of the most successful” forces fighting IS jihadists in Syria by US State Department spokesman John Kirby, AFP reports.
Earlier, the US also called the PYD an “important partner” in the fight against Islamic State, adding that US support of the Kurdish fighters “will continue.”
Saudi Arabia is to deploy military jets and personnel to Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base in the south of the country, Ankara said. The base is already used by the US Air Force for their sorties in Syria.
The deployment is part of the US-led effort to defeat the Islamic State terrorist group, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.
“At every coalition meeting, we have always emphasized the need for an extensive result-oriented strategy in the fight against the Daesh terrorist group,” he said, referring to IS by an Arabic-language abbreviation.
Cavusoglu spoke to the Yeni Şafak newspaper after addressing a security conference in Munich, Germany, where the Syrian crisis was one of the top issues on the agenda.
“If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch a ground operation,” he added, fueling concerns that a foreign troop invasion may soon further complicate the already turbulent situation in the war-torn country.
Russian PM warns US, Saudis against starting ‘permanent war’ with ground intervention in Syria
Earlier, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE voiced their readiness to contribute troops for a ground operation in Syria on the condition that the US would lead the intervention. Damascus and its key regional ally, Iran, warned that such a foreign force would face strong resistance.
The US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have shared goals in Syria, as all three want the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad to be toppled by rebel forces. On other issues they differ. For example, the US supports Kurdish forces in Syria who scored significant military victories against IS, but Turkey considers them terrorists and is targeting them with airstrikes.
Russia, which supports the government of Bashar Assad, seeing it as the only regional force capable of defeating IS on the ground, has warned against a ground intervention, which, Moscow believes, would only serve to prolong the war in Syria.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev called on his Western counterparts “not to threaten a ground operation” in Syria, stressing that Moscow is doing its utmost to pave the way for a lasting peace in the war-torn country.
Russia and other leading world powers have brought Damascus and a number of rebel groups to negotiations and leveraged them into agreeing to a ceasefire. The agreement, however, remains shaky, as neither side trusts the other, and the unity of the rebel delegation remains questionable. The terrorist groups IS and Al Nusra Front are not part of the talks.
Russian PM warns US, Saudis against starting ‘permanent war’ with ground intervention in Syria
Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev told German media that sending foreign troops into Syria could unleash “yet another war on Earth.” The warning follows increasingly aggressive statements made by Saudi Arabia and Turkey amid Bashar Assad’s gains in Aleppo.
“All sides must be compelled to sit at the negotiating table, instead of unleashing yet another war on Earth,” Medvedev told Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper. “Any kinds of land operations, as a rule, lead to a permanent war. Look at what’s happened in Afghanistan and a number of other countries. I am not even going to bring up poor Libya.”
The PM was commenting on recent statements from Saudi Arabia claiming that it was ready to send ground troops to Syria, should Washington lead the way.
“The Americans and our Arab partners must think well: do they want a permanent war? Do they think they can really quickly win it? It is impossible, especially in the Arab world. Everyone is fighting against everyone there,” Medvedev added. The interview was published on the eve of the International Syria Support Group meeting in Munich, where the cessation of hostilities in Syria became a top item on the agenda.
Meanwhile, the situation in Syria has been heating up, as Syrian government troops have been making advances in the northern city of Aleppo, half of which is considered to be under the control of anti-government rebel groups. The same region has also been inundated with terrorist groups, such as Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), Ahrar al-Sham, and Al-Nusra Front, which are all being targeted by Russian as well as US-led air campaigns.
At the same time, the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have recaptured a former military airbase from jihadists near the Turkish-Syrian border, reportedly with the support of Russian air strikes. The base is located near the rebel-held town of Azaz in Aleppo province.
Turkey, meanwhile, continues to insist that the Kurdish militia fighting IS are terrorists just as the Kurdish rebels fighting inside Turkey. Ankara, which has been criticized for bombing Kurds inside Syria instead of helping to fight IS, has recently fallen out with Washington over America’s support for the Kurdish YPG.
On the Syrian battlefield, Turkey openly supports anti-Assad rebel groups. The latest statement by Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu, who pledged to return a “historical debt” to Turkey’s “Aleppo brothers,”gave new rise to speculations over a looming Turkish ground invasion of Syria.
The situation has prompted fears of a possible military clash between world powers backing different sides of the Syrian conflict, with hopes that the Munich talks could de-escalate the deadlock. While some Western leaders have openly called upon Russia to stop supporting Assad with airstrikes, the communique that was agreed upon after five long hours of discussions does not directly mention any downsizing of strikes. Instead, it calls for a“nationwide cessation of hostilities” over the period of one week, although it exempts terrorist groups from the potential ceasefire.
In the latest alarming episode, Russian and American militaries traded accusations over the bombing of civilian infrastructure in Aleppo. Russia’s Defense Ministry said two US Air Force A-10 warplanes had destroyed nine facilities in the city, with the Americans shifting the blame onto Russia’s air campaign afterwards.
Russian jets, however, had not targeted any civilian areas and were operating 20 kilometers away, according to the ministry. The spat started on Wednesday with the US alleging the destruction of “two main hospitals in Aleppo by Russian and regime attacks.”
From February 4 to 11, the Russian Air Force performed over 500 sorties, eliminating nearly 1,900 terrorist facilities in the Syrian provinces of Aleppo, Latakia, Hama, Deir ez-Zor, Daraa, Homs, Al-Hasakah and Raqqa, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the US is seeking to boost the anti-Islamic State coalition it is heading in Iraq and Syria by officially drawing in NATO as a member, AFP reported. While some NATO member states are already active members of the coalition, the military alliance’s chief, Jens Stoltenberg, said their increased role could bring “significant development” and “unique capabilities” which include “building partner capacity, training ground forces and providing stabilization support.”
US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter has been lobbying for greater participation by NATO in the war on Islamic State, giving a dramatic Thursday speech on “a new stage in the coalition campaign to defeat ISIL” and adding the countries would then be able “look back after victory and remember who participated in the fight.”
The alliance, however, has already found itself in one uneasy situation related to the conflict, when it had to back Turkey’s downing of a Russian Su-24 bomber that was striking militant positions in Syria. While Ankara rushed to seek NATO’s support following the aggressive and clearly avoidable move, and the bloc delivered this support on an official level, reports cited sources taking part in a NATO emergency meeting at the time as expressing discontent with the rash unilateral move by the Turks.
Turkey has since stopped its sorties into Syria in what some attribute to the dispatch of the Russian S-400 air defense systems there, but also due to the pressure by Ankara‘s NATO allies to follow the bloc’s more cautious rules of engagement.
Breaking: Saudi Arabia moves planes to Turkey, Joint attack on Russian, Syrian and Kurdish forces begins (continually updated) | Veterans Today
Saudi Arabia’s obsession with removing Assad may prove self-destructive
BY SALMAN RAFI on FEBRUARY 16, 2016 in ASIA TIMES NEWS & FEATURES, MIDDLE EAST
Contrary to the recent overtures regarding ‘ceasefire’ in Syria, the war is escalating and expanding to such an extent that a number of regional and extra-regional states might soon find themselves on the horns of dilemma in making a choice between joining ‘the East’ or the West.’
Saudi Arabia and Turkey are indulging in military provocations in Syria for extended Western military support
While the recent Munich talks seemed to shed a ray of hope for truce, the ‘understanding’ reached there lacked an enforcement mechanism. The hollowness of the talks was evident when John Kerry said, “What we have here are words on paper, and what we need to see in the next few days are actions on the ground.”
The actions on the ground, particularly during the past two days or so, have only reaffirmed that the Syrian war is not going to end any time sooner; on the contrary, it seems to be engulfing the region.
Saudi Arabia and Turkey are planning to send ground troops (Saudi Arabia has already sent its fighter jets to Turkey) to Syria to supposedly fight the Islamic State (IS). This is only a smoke screen created by the House of Saud.
While the Munich talks and the ‘understanding’ reached there were highlighted by media, what went largely unnoticed was Saudi Arabia’s obsession with Assad’s presence in Syria and its re-affirmation to ‘send him off the scene’ once and for all. Last Friday, the country’s foreign minister said Saudi Arabia’s goal was to remove Assad, confidently stating “we will achieve it.”
Speaking at a security conference in Munich, Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir called Assad the “single most effective magnet for extremists and terrorists in the region,” asserting that he must be removed from office if stability is to be restored in the region.
“That’s our objective and we will achieve it,” he said. “Unless and until there is a change in Syria, Daesh will not be defeated in Syria.”
It is interesting to note how the House of Saud is equating the necessity of defeating Syria’s ‘legitimate leadership’ with the defeat of IS. However, if we closely look at the war-context against which the decision for a ground invasion has been taken, the agenda of Saudi Arabia and Turkey becomes clear: apart from removing Assad from power, they want to protect “opposition groups” such as IS.
The battle for control of Aleppo seems to have set in motion developments of far reaching consequences. If the Syrian Army backed by Russia’s air support retakes Aleppo, they will be able to cut off potential supply routes coming from certain ‘neighbouring countries.’ They can then effectively corner ‘opposition forces’ which currently have more territory under their control than the Syria government.
This is a scenario that the House of Saud and the ‘House of Erdogan’ are trying to avoid through their military provocations. It is an open secret that the so-called ‘Arab coalition’ does not have enough military power to face the combined forces of Syria, Iran and Russia. While the ‘Arab coalition’ has certainly failed in Yemen (where they did not have to face Russia directly), they hardly stand any chance whatsoever to fight and win the battle in Syria.
The reason for such provocations is to get an extended Western military support which is coming. As part of the military exercises code named ‘Shamal Storm,’ the UK is reportedly going to deploy 1,600 soldiers and 300 vehicles to Jordan to carry out drills similar to preparations for the invasion of Iraq.
Russia and Syria have been claiming the presence of supply routes coming from Jordan. The deployment of British forces in Jordan may indicate the possibility of Syrian war expanding to other countries. Although the Daily Telegraph quotes British sources denying any link between the deployment of forces in Jordan and the fight against IS, it is self-evident that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are trying to draw the West deep into the conflict to accomplish what they cannot achieve on their own.
In the meantime, Washington has only been making promises. For example, it announced plans to send EA-18 Growler warplanes with “advanced electronics-jamming capabilities” to an air base in Turkey to try to counter Russia’s S-400 systems deployed in Syria while Turkish authorities have been desperately trying to tackle the situation on the ground.
Turkish long-range artillery units have been shelling mountainous areas in Latakia. In Aleppo, it is pulling its forces together to create a sort of armored fist to overwhelm opposing forces. It has also been redeploying its heavy units from the border with Greece to the border areas with Syria. This way, a certain momentum of military deployment and mobilization has been developed.
The ‘Arab coalition’, particularly Saudi Arabia, wants to carry this momentum into other ‘target territories’ like Yemen where Saudis have largely failed to reverse the Houthis. Saudi’s intervention in Yemen has created a very explosive situation in its own eastern parts where a general Shia uprising in alliance with the Yemeni Houthis may break out.
Faced with the prospect of ‘chickens coming home to roost’, the House of Saud is, therefore, going from one length to another to revamp its extremely weak position. For them, winning the war in Syria is not important merely in terms of defeating the arch rival, Iran, it is equally important for ensuring the Saudi monarchy’s own political survival.
While the US, so far, seems to be treading a cautious path to avoid an extended military engagement in the region, the question is what will prevent the ‘Arab coalition’ and Turkey from deliberate military provocations?
If a direct military clash between Syrian and Turkish forces or between Syrian forces and ‘Arab Coalition’ is to occur, will Russia and the US decide to sit on the sidelines as mere spectators? What is, however, clear is that the Mid-Eastern players are preparing a recipe of yet another disaster which might destroy them too.
Salman Rafi Sheikh is a freelance journalist and research analyst of international relations and Pakistan affairs. His area of interest is South and West Asian politics, the foreign policies of major powers, and Pakistani politics. He can be reached at salmansheikh.ss11.sr@gmail.com
(Copyright 2016 Asia Times Holdings Limited, a duly registered Hong Kong company. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Saudi Arabia’s obsession with removing Assad may prove self-destructive – Asia Times
A stark message to Turkey’s Erdogan
The Iranian news agency FARS, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), has featured a report giving the big picture of the dramatic developments lately in the northern Syrian regions bordering Turkey. This is the first graphic account of the fighting that is going on in that region, giving a candid view of the alignment of forces – Turkey and the extremist groups aligned with it on one side desperately preserving their strongholds in Aleppo province against the concerted attacks by the Syrian government forces and the Syrian Kurd militia.
The account makes it clear that Russian air attacks on the extremist groups have been a decisive factor in the fighting. The Russian jets pound the extremists relentlessly and the ground attacks take advantage of it. Second, Turkey, on the other hand, has far from given up. It is still sending reinforcements of fresh fighters and supplies. (This is also borne out by other media reports.) The cross-border artillery fire aims at pinning down the Kurdish forces.
According to the FARS report, there are growing signs that a Turkish military incursion into Syria could be on the cards, but this seems a far-fetched scenario, especially as Turkey’s internal security situation is worsening.
It all seemed that the defining moment could be any Kurdish move to capture the town of Azaz right on the Turkish border, which, according to the Russian media, is a key transit point in the supply routes from Turkey to the extremist strongholds in Syria. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmed Davutoglu had openly said, “We will not let Azaz fall”. But that was three days ago.
Meanwhile, the emergent crisis in the internal security situation will remind the Turkish leadership that when the house is on fire, military adventures abroad are best avoided. Indeed, the massive car bomb attack on Wednesday in the heart of Ankara city where the Prime Ministry, Parliament and the General Staff Headquarters are located, can prove a turning point. It was an attack on a convoy of buses ferrying military personnel and the casualty figures have already touched 28 killed.
In an earlier era, the Turkish military would have cornered the civilian leadership and held it accountable over such a grave security breach. President Recep Erdogan’s early commentsseem to point finger at the Kurdish militants, who, he said, acted as the “pawns” of outside forces. (But then, Turkey routinely alleges that the Syrian government has cut a Faustian deal with the Kurds.)
Interestingly, though, Russian Foreign Ministry has issued an exceptionally strong statementcondemning the terrorist strike in Ankara. The harsh wording (“barbaric crime”) and the emphasis on the “necessity of uniting all countries in fighting international terrorism” would suggest that in Moscow’s estimation, some extremist groups in Syria and Iraq could be responsible.
However, the ‘breaking news’ on a second pin-pointed terrorist strike earlier today at another Turkish military convoy, this time in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir (which is a hotbed of Kurdish nationalism as well as the base camp of the extremist fighters in Syria), underscores that Erdogan is being badly cornered. Evidently, someone is setting his house on fire, which would in all likelihood bog him down in the effort to douse the fire. The two terrorist strikes in the past 24 hours taken together are a stark reminder to Erdogan that Turkey simply lacks the capacity to fight two wars at the same time.
So, in the ultimate analysis, what can Erdogan do in Syria? Certainly, Turkish military will not make an incursion into Syria on its own without an ‘exit strategy’. Saudi Arabia’s or UAE’s participation will be small comfort. Turkey will hope for a full-fledged Western intervention as such in which Turkey plays a pivotal role. Turkey’s best hope will be that the NATO directly intervenes.
On the other hand, Turkey feels exasperated that the US refuses to regard the Syrian Kurd militia as ‘terrorists’. In the White House readout of a phone conversation between PM Davutoglu and US vice-president Joe Biden, the American side pointedly used the expression “Syrian Kurdish forces”, which couldn’t have been accidental.
Posted in Uncategorized.
Tagged with Kurdish problem, Syrian conflict.
No comments »
By M K Bhadrakumar – February 18, 2016
A stark message to Turkey’s Erdogan – Indian Punchline
Zone of the expected Turkish military invasion
The Turkish government is determined to make sure that the YPG does not gain control of the Kurdish dominated regions in an unbroken area all along the border. The YPG has recently been successful in attacks against Turkish-backed terrorists in small offensives in this “wedge” between YPG areas of control. These offensives have been backed by Russian air operations and with airdrops of weapons and ammunition in recent weeks.
It is most likely the prospect of greater territorial gains by the Kurds that the Turkish Army will be deployed to prevent. How the Turkish military command plans to carry out such an operation successfully, and how the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russia will respond will determine the course of the conflict and undoubtedly the odds of a wider war.
An initial observation of the forward deployment of Turkish Army units along the border with Syria gives hints as to their tactical employment in a possible invasion. Two armored brigades and two mechanized brigades are positioned just north of the border, adjacent to the area that is currently controlled by various terrorist groups and militias under the umbrella of support of the Turkish regime, and that lies in between the YPG dominated areas.
Their axis of advance would cover, approximately the area between Azaz and Jarabulus, and would probably not extend beyond the depth of 20 to 25 miles (30 to 40 km).
Two armored and two mechanized brigades, representing approximately 15,000 to 20,000 men would be able to mount a fast assault. These units are highly mobile, flexible, and self-sufficient and pack a great deal of offensive power. They would most likely be aided by elements of at least one commando brigade. They could cover the 20-25 mile distance quickly and consolidate the area rapidly, and would be maintaining short lines of communication and supply.
Fixed wing and rotary wing attack aircraft would be assigned to provide air cover to the ground operation. The initial assault would most certainly be followed up by the advance of infantry and border patrol units to establish and provide internal security for the long haul.
Click to see the full-size map
The unknown variable for the Turkish military planners is the reaction of the Russian forces deployed within Syria, at the request of the only legitimate government of that country. Will the Russian air forces deployed in Syria react to thwart the incursion of a hostile force that aims to directly undermine the sovereignty of Syria?
Will Russian air defense forces based at Khmeimim airbase or naval vessels positioned offshore fire upon Turkish aircraft that violate the sovereign airspace of Syria engaged in providing air cover for Turkish ground forces, and that could possibly threaten the Russian position in Latakia? There are a number of unknown variables that present immense uncertainties in the Turkish strategic calculus when planning such an undertaking.
The recent Russian snap drills by forces in the Southern Military District, which included the participation of airborne and air transport units, was a clear message to Turkey that Russia was prepared to defend her borders and her national interests in Syria. This is only the latest in a series of clear messages by the Russian leadership that it will not tolerate a Turkish sabotage of its campaign in Syria to restore order and to stabilize the situation in the country.
The question remains, does the Erdogan regime believe that the potential benefits of setting up a de-facto safe haven for its proxies in Syria outweigh the potential of direct military conflict with Russia?
The determination of the Erdogan regime to undermine the sovereignty of Syria by supporting, both logistically, materially and monetarily various factions of Islamic fundamentalist mercenaries and terrorist groups, has only harmed the security of Turkey and strengthened the position of their long time enemy the Kurds.
The past five years have enriched the bank accounts of the Erdogan family and their cronies through the illegal oil trade, human trafficking of refuges, and the smuggling of arms; however, the Turkish people have suffered from a bloody crack-down on the Kurdish minority in the south of the country, terrorist bombings, an assault on civil rights, press censorship and the erosion of Turkish-Russian relations to a level not seen since the darkest days of the Cold War.
This policy of intervention in the affairs of both Syria and Iraq, the support of a multitude of Islamic terrorist groups, and the undermining of neighboring countries to the benefit of a ruling elite in Turkey has been disastrous. It may turn out in the end that Turkey itself has been the most negatively affected by Erdogan’s misguided policies.
NATO and Europe as a whole have been undermined, and it remains to be seen how much longer even they will tolerate the situation. Is NATO ready to be dragged into a war with Russia as a result of Turkey’s aggressive and misguided foreign policy? A pretext for invasion that casts Turkey as the victim will have to be engineered by the Erdogan regime prior to any incursion south in order to maintain NATO support.
By bringing to light, in embarrassing detail, the Erdogan regime’s illegal activities in direct support of internationally recognized terrorist groups and the illegal plunder of the oil resources of Syria and Iraq and the establishment and operation of the logistics network that facilitates the sale of the oil at great profit to the Erdogan family itself, Russia has laid the truth bear to the world.
In so doing, they have also allowed Erdogan a way to back off the stage, so to speak, and abandon his misguided aspirations in Syria. Continued support by NATO and the United States in light of the ugly realities of Turkey’s actions in the conflict, will only undermine both parties’ legitimacy in the eyes of the international community.
Turkey most definitely has the military power in place to successfully carry out a limited invasion to establish a terrorist safe zone and to prohibit the consolidation of the entire northern border under the control of the Kurds; however the costs if this invasion is contested by Russia and Syria nullify any potential benefits. In short, further efforts to salvage a disastrous foreign policy on the part of the Erdogan regime through force of arms will only hasten their political isolation and destruction.
The Turkish people deserve better, and as political opposition continues to grow in the government and on the street, a disastrous invasion just may push the current regime out of power. This would be a positive development; however, the very real possibility of a Turkish incursion developing into a wider war would prove disastrous to the entire world.
From RT.com:
Turkish military shells Kurdish targets in northern Syria – Kurds to RT
Turkey’s army has shelled targets near the city of Azaz in northwestern Syria, Kurdish sources on the ground tell RT.
The Turkish shelling of Kurdish positions has continued for more than three hours almost uninterruptedly, a Kurdish source told RT, adding that the Turkish forces are using mortars and missiles and firing from the Turkish border not far from the city of Azaz in the Aleppo Governorate.
The source also said that that there were casualties, but the exact number is unknown. The Turkish forces fired shells at the villages of Malikiya and Tannab, a source told RT, citing a statement by the Jaysh al-Thuwwar group. A source in the Turkish government confirmed to Reuters that the Turkish military had shelled Kurdish militia targets near Azaz on Saturday.
“The Turkish Armed Forces fired shells at PYD positions in the Azaz area,” the source said, referring to the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), which Ankara views as a terrorist group.
A Kurdish official confirmed to Reuters that the shelling had targeted the Menagh air base located south of Azaz. According to the official, the base had been captured by the Jaysh al-Thuwwar rebel group, which is an ally of PYD and a member of the Syria Democratic Forces alliance.
Syrian Kurds are actively engaged in the fight against the Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) terrorist group and have been recently described as “some of the most successful” forces fighting IS jihadists in Syria by US State Department spokesman John Kirby, AFP reports.
Earlier, the US also called the PYD an “important partner” in the fight against Islamic State, adding that US support of the Kurdish fighters “will continue.”
Saudi Arabia is to deploy military jets and personnel to Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base in the south of the country, Ankara said. The base is already used by the US Air Force for their sorties in Syria.
The deployment is part of the US-led effort to defeat the Islamic State terrorist group, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.
“At every coalition meeting, we have always emphasized the need for an extensive result-oriented strategy in the fight against the Daesh terrorist group,” he said, referring to IS by an Arabic-language abbreviation.
Cavusoglu spoke to the Yeni Şafak newspaper after addressing a security conference in Munich, Germany, where the Syrian crisis was one of the top issues on the agenda.
“If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch a ground operation,” he added, fueling concerns that a foreign troop invasion may soon further complicate the already turbulent situation in the war-torn country.
Russian PM warns US, Saudis against starting ‘permanent war’ with ground intervention in Syria
Earlier, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE voiced their readiness to contribute troops for a ground operation in Syria on the condition that the US would lead the intervention. Damascus and its key regional ally, Iran, warned that such a foreign force would face strong resistance.
The US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have shared goals in Syria, as all three want the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad to be toppled by rebel forces. On other issues they differ. For example, the US supports Kurdish forces in Syria who scored significant military victories against IS, but Turkey considers them terrorists and is targeting them with airstrikes.
Russia, which supports the government of Bashar Assad, seeing it as the only regional force capable of defeating IS on the ground, has warned against a ground intervention, which, Moscow believes, would only serve to prolong the war in Syria.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev called on his Western counterparts “not to threaten a ground operation” in Syria, stressing that Moscow is doing its utmost to pave the way for a lasting peace in the war-torn country.
Russia and other leading world powers have brought Damascus and a number of rebel groups to negotiations and leveraged them into agreeing to a ceasefire. The agreement, however, remains shaky, as neither side trusts the other, and the unity of the rebel delegation remains questionable. The terrorist groups IS and Al Nusra Front are not part of the talks.
Russian PM warns US, Saudis against starting ‘permanent war’ with ground intervention in Syria
Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev told German media that sending foreign troops into Syria could unleash “yet another war on Earth.” The warning follows increasingly aggressive statements made by Saudi Arabia and Turkey amid Bashar Assad’s gains in Aleppo.
“All sides must be compelled to sit at the negotiating table, instead of unleashing yet another war on Earth,” Medvedev told Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper. “Any kinds of land operations, as a rule, lead to a permanent war. Look at what’s happened in Afghanistan and a number of other countries. I am not even going to bring up poor Libya.”
The PM was commenting on recent statements from Saudi Arabia claiming that it was ready to send ground troops to Syria, should Washington lead the way.
“The Americans and our Arab partners must think well: do they want a permanent war? Do they think they can really quickly win it? It is impossible, especially in the Arab world. Everyone is fighting against everyone there,” Medvedev added. The interview was published on the eve of the International Syria Support Group meeting in Munich, where the cessation of hostilities in Syria became a top item on the agenda.
Meanwhile, the situation in Syria has been heating up, as Syrian government troops have been making advances in the northern city of Aleppo, half of which is considered to be under the control of anti-government rebel groups. The same region has also been inundated with terrorist groups, such as Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), Ahrar al-Sham, and Al-Nusra Front, which are all being targeted by Russian as well as US-led air campaigns.
At the same time, the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have recaptured a former military airbase from jihadists near the Turkish-Syrian border, reportedly with the support of Russian air strikes. The base is located near the rebel-held town of Azaz in Aleppo province.
Turkey, meanwhile, continues to insist that the Kurdish militia fighting IS are terrorists just as the Kurdish rebels fighting inside Turkey. Ankara, which has been criticized for bombing Kurds inside Syria instead of helping to fight IS, has recently fallen out with Washington over America’s support for the Kurdish YPG.
On the Syrian battlefield, Turkey openly supports anti-Assad rebel groups. The latest statement by Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu, who pledged to return a “historical debt” to Turkey’s “Aleppo brothers,”gave new rise to speculations over a looming Turkish ground invasion of Syria.
The situation has prompted fears of a possible military clash between world powers backing different sides of the Syrian conflict, with hopes that the Munich talks could de-escalate the deadlock. While some Western leaders have openly called upon Russia to stop supporting Assad with airstrikes, the communique that was agreed upon after five long hours of discussions does not directly mention any downsizing of strikes. Instead, it calls for a“nationwide cessation of hostilities” over the period of one week, although it exempts terrorist groups from the potential ceasefire.
In the latest alarming episode, Russian and American militaries traded accusations over the bombing of civilian infrastructure in Aleppo. Russia’s Defense Ministry said two US Air Force A-10 warplanes had destroyed nine facilities in the city, with the Americans shifting the blame onto Russia’s air campaign afterwards.
Russian jets, however, had not targeted any civilian areas and were operating 20 kilometers away, according to the ministry. The spat started on Wednesday with the US alleging the destruction of “two main hospitals in Aleppo by Russian and regime attacks.”
From February 4 to 11, the Russian Air Force performed over 500 sorties, eliminating nearly 1,900 terrorist facilities in the Syrian provinces of Aleppo, Latakia, Hama, Deir ez-Zor, Daraa, Homs, Al-Hasakah and Raqqa, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the US is seeking to boost the anti-Islamic State coalition it is heading in Iraq and Syria by officially drawing in NATO as a member, AFP reported. While some NATO member states are already active members of the coalition, the military alliance’s chief, Jens Stoltenberg, said their increased role could bring “significant development” and “unique capabilities” which include “building partner capacity, training ground forces and providing stabilization support.”
US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter has been lobbying for greater participation by NATO in the war on Islamic State, giving a dramatic Thursday speech on “a new stage in the coalition campaign to defeat ISIL” and adding the countries would then be able “look back after victory and remember who participated in the fight.”
The alliance, however, has already found itself in one uneasy situation related to the conflict, when it had to back Turkey’s downing of a Russian Su-24 bomber that was striking militant positions in Syria. While Ankara rushed to seek NATO’s support following the aggressive and clearly avoidable move, and the bloc delivered this support on an official level, reports cited sources taking part in a NATO emergency meeting at the time as expressing discontent with the rash unilateral move by the Turks.
Turkey has since stopped its sorties into Syria in what some attribute to the dispatch of the Russian S-400 air defense systems there, but also due to the pressure by Ankara‘s NATO allies to follow the bloc’s more cautious rules of engagement.
Breaking: Saudi Arabia moves planes to Turkey, Joint attack on Russian, Syrian and Kurdish forces begins (continually updated) | Veterans Today
Saudi Arabia’s obsession with removing Assad may prove self-destructive
BY SALMAN RAFI on FEBRUARY 16, 2016 in ASIA TIMES NEWS & FEATURES, MIDDLE EAST
Contrary to the recent overtures regarding ‘ceasefire’ in Syria, the war is escalating and expanding to such an extent that a number of regional and extra-regional states might soon find themselves on the horns of dilemma in making a choice between joining ‘the East’ or the West.’
Saudi Arabia and Turkey are indulging in military provocations in Syria for extended Western military support
While the recent Munich talks seemed to shed a ray of hope for truce, the ‘understanding’ reached there lacked an enforcement mechanism. The hollowness of the talks was evident when John Kerry said, “What we have here are words on paper, and what we need to see in the next few days are actions on the ground.”
The actions on the ground, particularly during the past two days or so, have only reaffirmed that the Syrian war is not going to end any time sooner; on the contrary, it seems to be engulfing the region.
Saudi Arabia and Turkey are planning to send ground troops (Saudi Arabia has already sent its fighter jets to Turkey) to Syria to supposedly fight the Islamic State (IS). This is only a smoke screen created by the House of Saud.
While the Munich talks and the ‘understanding’ reached there were highlighted by media, what went largely unnoticed was Saudi Arabia’s obsession with Assad’s presence in Syria and its re-affirmation to ‘send him off the scene’ once and for all. Last Friday, the country’s foreign minister said Saudi Arabia’s goal was to remove Assad, confidently stating “we will achieve it.”
Speaking at a security conference in Munich, Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir called Assad the “single most effective magnet for extremists and terrorists in the region,” asserting that he must be removed from office if stability is to be restored in the region.
“That’s our objective and we will achieve it,” he said. “Unless and until there is a change in Syria, Daesh will not be defeated in Syria.”
It is interesting to note how the House of Saud is equating the necessity of defeating Syria’s ‘legitimate leadership’ with the defeat of IS. However, if we closely look at the war-context against which the decision for a ground invasion has been taken, the agenda of Saudi Arabia and Turkey becomes clear: apart from removing Assad from power, they want to protect “opposition groups” such as IS.
The battle for control of Aleppo seems to have set in motion developments of far reaching consequences. If the Syrian Army backed by Russia’s air support retakes Aleppo, they will be able to cut off potential supply routes coming from certain ‘neighbouring countries.’ They can then effectively corner ‘opposition forces’ which currently have more territory under their control than the Syria government.
This is a scenario that the House of Saud and the ‘House of Erdogan’ are trying to avoid through their military provocations. It is an open secret that the so-called ‘Arab coalition’ does not have enough military power to face the combined forces of Syria, Iran and Russia. While the ‘Arab coalition’ has certainly failed in Yemen (where they did not have to face Russia directly), they hardly stand any chance whatsoever to fight and win the battle in Syria.
The reason for such provocations is to get an extended Western military support which is coming. As part of the military exercises code named ‘Shamal Storm,’ the UK is reportedly going to deploy 1,600 soldiers and 300 vehicles to Jordan to carry out drills similar to preparations for the invasion of Iraq.
Russia and Syria have been claiming the presence of supply routes coming from Jordan. The deployment of British forces in Jordan may indicate the possibility of Syrian war expanding to other countries. Although the Daily Telegraph quotes British sources denying any link between the deployment of forces in Jordan and the fight against IS, it is self-evident that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are trying to draw the West deep into the conflict to accomplish what they cannot achieve on their own.
In the meantime, Washington has only been making promises. For example, it announced plans to send EA-18 Growler warplanes with “advanced electronics-jamming capabilities” to an air base in Turkey to try to counter Russia’s S-400 systems deployed in Syria while Turkish authorities have been desperately trying to tackle the situation on the ground.
Turkish long-range artillery units have been shelling mountainous areas in Latakia. In Aleppo, it is pulling its forces together to create a sort of armored fist to overwhelm opposing forces. It has also been redeploying its heavy units from the border with Greece to the border areas with Syria. This way, a certain momentum of military deployment and mobilization has been developed.
The ‘Arab coalition’, particularly Saudi Arabia, wants to carry this momentum into other ‘target territories’ like Yemen where Saudis have largely failed to reverse the Houthis. Saudi’s intervention in Yemen has created a very explosive situation in its own eastern parts where a general Shia uprising in alliance with the Yemeni Houthis may break out.
Faced with the prospect of ‘chickens coming home to roost’, the House of Saud is, therefore, going from one length to another to revamp its extremely weak position. For them, winning the war in Syria is not important merely in terms of defeating the arch rival, Iran, it is equally important for ensuring the Saudi monarchy’s own political survival.
While the US, so far, seems to be treading a cautious path to avoid an extended military engagement in the region, the question is what will prevent the ‘Arab coalition’ and Turkey from deliberate military provocations?
If a direct military clash between Syrian and Turkish forces or between Syrian forces and ‘Arab Coalition’ is to occur, will Russia and the US decide to sit on the sidelines as mere spectators? What is, however, clear is that the Mid-Eastern players are preparing a recipe of yet another disaster which might destroy them too.
Salman Rafi Sheikh is a freelance journalist and research analyst of international relations and Pakistan affairs. His area of interest is South and West Asian politics, the foreign policies of major powers, and Pakistani politics. He can be reached at salmansheikh.ss11.sr@gmail.com
(Copyright 2016 Asia Times Holdings Limited, a duly registered Hong Kong company. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Saudi Arabia’s obsession with removing Assad may prove self-destructive – Asia Times
A stark message to Turkey’s Erdogan
The Iranian news agency FARS, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), has featured a report giving the big picture of the dramatic developments lately in the northern Syrian regions bordering Turkey. This is the first graphic account of the fighting that is going on in that region, giving a candid view of the alignment of forces – Turkey and the extremist groups aligned with it on one side desperately preserving their strongholds in Aleppo province against the concerted attacks by the Syrian government forces and the Syrian Kurd militia.
The account makes it clear that Russian air attacks on the extremist groups have been a decisive factor in the fighting. The Russian jets pound the extremists relentlessly and the ground attacks take advantage of it. Second, Turkey, on the other hand, has far from given up. It is still sending reinforcements of fresh fighters and supplies. (This is also borne out by other media reports.) The cross-border artillery fire aims at pinning down the Kurdish forces.
According to the FARS report, there are growing signs that a Turkish military incursion into Syria could be on the cards, but this seems a far-fetched scenario, especially as Turkey’s internal security situation is worsening.
It all seemed that the defining moment could be any Kurdish move to capture the town of Azaz right on the Turkish border, which, according to the Russian media, is a key transit point in the supply routes from Turkey to the extremist strongholds in Syria. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmed Davutoglu had openly said, “We will not let Azaz fall”. But that was three days ago.
Meanwhile, the emergent crisis in the internal security situation will remind the Turkish leadership that when the house is on fire, military adventures abroad are best avoided. Indeed, the massive car bomb attack on Wednesday in the heart of Ankara city where the Prime Ministry, Parliament and the General Staff Headquarters are located, can prove a turning point. It was an attack on a convoy of buses ferrying military personnel and the casualty figures have already touched 28 killed.
In an earlier era, the Turkish military would have cornered the civilian leadership and held it accountable over such a grave security breach. President Recep Erdogan’s early commentsseem to point finger at the Kurdish militants, who, he said, acted as the “pawns” of outside forces. (But then, Turkey routinely alleges that the Syrian government has cut a Faustian deal with the Kurds.)
Interestingly, though, Russian Foreign Ministry has issued an exceptionally strong statementcondemning the terrorist strike in Ankara. The harsh wording (“barbaric crime”) and the emphasis on the “necessity of uniting all countries in fighting international terrorism” would suggest that in Moscow’s estimation, some extremist groups in Syria and Iraq could be responsible.
However, the ‘breaking news’ on a second pin-pointed terrorist strike earlier today at another Turkish military convoy, this time in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir (which is a hotbed of Kurdish nationalism as well as the base camp of the extremist fighters in Syria), underscores that Erdogan is being badly cornered. Evidently, someone is setting his house on fire, which would in all likelihood bog him down in the effort to douse the fire. The two terrorist strikes in the past 24 hours taken together are a stark reminder to Erdogan that Turkey simply lacks the capacity to fight two wars at the same time.
So, in the ultimate analysis, what can Erdogan do in Syria? Certainly, Turkish military will not make an incursion into Syria on its own without an ‘exit strategy’. Saudi Arabia’s or UAE’s participation will be small comfort. Turkey will hope for a full-fledged Western intervention as such in which Turkey plays a pivotal role. Turkey’s best hope will be that the NATO directly intervenes.
On the other hand, Turkey feels exasperated that the US refuses to regard the Syrian Kurd militia as ‘terrorists’. In the White House readout of a phone conversation between PM Davutoglu and US vice-president Joe Biden, the American side pointedly used the expression “Syrian Kurdish forces”, which couldn’t have been accidental.
Posted in Uncategorized.
Tagged with Kurdish problem, Syrian conflict.
No comments »
By M K Bhadrakumar – February 18, 2016
A stark message to Turkey’s Erdogan – Indian Punchline
Dragon Emperor
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Oct 25, 2010
- Messages
- 276
- Reaction score
- 0
Q
Russia and SAA won't allow a so-called safe-zone and will eliminate all armed invaders.
That Guy
PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
- Joined
- Mar 29, 2013
- Messages
- 14,553
- Reaction score
- 52
- Country
- Location
Russia won't start a war with Turkey or KSA, and SAA has no actual say in the matter.
It will happen, with tacit approval from the world.
T-72M1
BANNED
- Joined
- Jan 4, 2016
- Messages
- 1,795
- Reaction score
- -17
- Country
- Location
A Saudi and Turkish enforced "safe zone" inside Syria for jihadis to operate without fear of being bombed by the Russian and Syrian air forces ? I don't think so.
If they invade the sovereign territory of Syria, it will be them starting a war with Russia, not the other way around.
and you probably mean tacit approval from the sunni arab world, right ?
That Guy
PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
- Joined
- Mar 29, 2013
- Messages
- 14,553
- Reaction score
- 52
- Country
- Location
Like I said, Russia wont start a war with Turkey or KSA, so the safe zone would be relatively well off.
The official reason for the safe zone is to halt the flow of refugees, which means that Turkey would gain support from the EU and approval from the US. Though, with the US, it would be gaining approval to also recruit members for groups loyal to Ankara.
The safe zone would be protected by Turkish forces, so there is no chance of Russia bombing the area. The SAA doesn't have the capability to attack Turkish forces. It's aircrafts would be shot out of the sky, by Turkish f-16, before it could carry out a raid.
T-72M1
BANNED
- Joined
- Jan 4, 2016
- Messages
- 1,795
- Reaction score
- -17
- Country
- Location
I'd call it an invasion if they enter sovereign Syrian territory and start shooting Syrian, and god forbid, Russian air force planes out of the sky to help their jihadi proxies.
A "safe zone" to halt the migration makes no sense when virtually all of the migrants are leaving from already established refugee camps in Jordan and Turkey.
If Turkey wants a safe zone, they'll have to make one inside their own borders, if they invade and engage Syrian government forces, I expect Russia/SAA to respond with force to the aggressor/invaders. Like it or not, the government of Bashar Assad is still the UN recognized legitimate ruling authority.
That Guy
PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
- Joined
- Mar 29, 2013
- Messages
- 14,553
- Reaction score
- 52
- Country
- Location
Not only are your expectations unrealistic, your opinion is flawed. You can call this whatever you want, wont change anything.
mustafa erkan
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Dec 26, 2015
- Messages
- 633
- Reaction score
- 2
- Country
- Location
Why suddenly Russians and Assad except a ceasefire?They were winning(atleast they are saying like that).They want to stop Turkey but they cant.We will create a security zone for Syrians and will secure them from Russians and Assad boms.
We will keep refugees in their landsand will neutralize YPG and PKK .
Free Syrian Army which we support is not Daesh and they are not Jihadis.They are freedom fihters of Syria fighting against Russia Assad,Daesh and Ypg.Yes they are fighting with all of them which shows they are not terorists like Russians urged them.
We will keep refugees in their landsand will neutralize YPG and PKK .
Free Syrian Army which we support is not Daesh and they are not Jihadis.They are freedom fihters of Syria fighting against Russia Assad,Daesh and Ypg.Yes they are fighting with all of them which shows they are not terorists like Russians urged them.
T-72M1
BANNED
- Joined
- Jan 4, 2016
- Messages
- 1,795
- Reaction score
- -17
- Country
- Location
In the absence of a UN resolution or US/NATO backing, I think the chances of a Saudi-Turkish military intervention in Syria is next to nil.
Similar threads
