A dramatic power shift
The timing of this particular state visit—only the eighth Obama has hosted since the beginning of his presidency—highlights a dramatic and uncertain power shift in the world's most vibrant economic region. Less than two decades ago, Asia was being heralded as a prime example of the benefits of "globalization," a panacea of economic growth and political democratization (albeit secured by the military might of the United States 7th Fleet).
Yet in recent years China's leaders have quietly leveraged the country's burgeoning economic power to project their strategic designs on the region. President Xi Jinping in particular has been unequivocal in his stance that China deserves political and military power concurrent with its new economic might. Lately, the atmosphere has become even more unsettled by the drums of discontent from unpredictable North Korea. According to The Wall Street Journal, Chinese nuclear experts estimate Pyongyang has as many as 20 nuclear warheads, which is twice current U.S. estimates.
Ironically, Abe himself helped set the stage for heightened concern over stability in parts of the Pacific Rim. Beginning with his election two years ago, and since he won a new mandate in December, Japan's prime minister has taken a tough stance against Chinese claims to the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyutai to Chinese) in the East China Sea. He has expressed "remorse" ("hansei") over Japan's actions during the war, but has suggested dialing back on earlier explicit apologies made by his predecessors' administrations.
Earlier this year he angered U.S. and South Koreans alike by ordering his consul general in New York to pressure an American publishing house to excise mention of "comfort women," forced into prostituting themselves during Japan's colonization of Korea. Not that he shouldn't know better than to act the bully over such issues: Abe's grandfather was Japan's first post-U.S. occupation prime minister, and his father, Shintaro Abe, served as foreign minister in the 1980s. Although he may not have been alive for it, Shinzo Abe is all too aware of that ugly piece of Japan's past.
Polishing Japan Inc.'s brand
Although the Obama administration has urged a more delicate approach, Washington's own concern over China's muscle-flexing is obvious. On Monday, Obama and Abe announced a broad new defense framework that for the first time since 1945 specifically allows Japanese forces to defend U.S. interests. On the economic front, Japan followed the United States' lead in declining to become an inaugural member of the China-led Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), an organization some fear is designed to compete directly with World Bank initiatives in the region.
More proactively, American officials have been pushing Japan to loosen its agricultural trade restrictions and join the new Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 21-nation free trade grouping that stretches from Australia to Chile and Vietnam. As Obama told The Wall Street Journal in an interview earlier this week: "If we don't write the rules, China will write the rules out in that region."
Shinzo Abe's vision for 21st century US-Japan relations
