pothead
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 18, 2017
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Major elections happening in India before 2019 in 5 states.
CG - Elections finished, BJP comfortably getting a majority in here. There are no surprises, no feel good take away for Cong from CG.
MP - Contrary to all the hype in media, BJP is going to win this easily. They are not going to as good as they did in 2013 but anyone thinking Cong has a chance in hell in MP need to know 2 basic facts.
1. MP has 96 Urban and Semi-Urban seats. In all these 96 seats BJP vote share over Cong is hovering around 10%.
2. Defeating BJP in MP is much more difficult than defeating them in Guj.
Rajasthan - BJP will do better than projected in the media. Will that be enough or will Cong walk away with the state depend on 3 factors.
1. How pissed is RSS at Raje?
2. Will Modi decide to save Raje's becon?
3. Will Cong implode?
There is a lot of grumbling in Rajasthan BJP and all is not well. Raje must go and will most probably go irrespective of the result. Even if she does not go, her wings will be severely clipped.
For Congress, it's like watching a slow suicide. whether they will finish themselves before they finish BJP is the main theme of this election.
TG - KCR started strong, very strong but Cong + TDP really surprised him. This alliance will hurt him very bad in few seats in Hyd.
There is absolutely no doubt KCR is banking on BJP to cut a lot of opposition votes and probably has a tacit understanding as well.
The election is still for KCR to take. not ruling out Cong coming back to power but would be surprised. The joker in the pack is truly the TDP which is making any prediction difficult.
For BJP, they will end up getting a higher vote share but may not really translate into more seats.
Their aim seems to be hurt Cong and make life easy for KCR.
Mizoram - It looks like Cong is having a tough time in this state.
What this means for 2019?
TDP has truly emerged as Joker in the pack. If Cong + TDP wind TG, then the alliance in AP will happen, else, Naidu will truly become a joker.
For BJP losing Rajasthan will be a bad. So, will RSS and Modi play ball to ensure Raje's win?
Losing would mean BJP will have to truly fight it out to win the same number from Rajasthan in 2019 and it won't be easy.
If Cong loses all 5 states, well, nothing will happen.
They are already used to it.
Rahul will go on a nice vacation & the congress chamchas will as usual do thalia of the family.
CG - Elections finished, BJP comfortably getting a majority in here. There are no surprises, no feel good take away for Cong from CG.
MP - Contrary to all the hype in media, BJP is going to win this easily. They are not going to as good as they did in 2013 but anyone thinking Cong has a chance in hell in MP need to know 2 basic facts.
1. MP has 96 Urban and Semi-Urban seats. In all these 96 seats BJP vote share over Cong is hovering around 10%.
2. Defeating BJP in MP is much more difficult than defeating them in Guj.
Rajasthan - BJP will do better than projected in the media. Will that be enough or will Cong walk away with the state depend on 3 factors.
1. How pissed is RSS at Raje?
2. Will Modi decide to save Raje's becon?
3. Will Cong implode?
There is a lot of grumbling in Rajasthan BJP and all is not well. Raje must go and will most probably go irrespective of the result. Even if she does not go, her wings will be severely clipped.
For Congress, it's like watching a slow suicide. whether they will finish themselves before they finish BJP is the main theme of this election.
TG - KCR started strong, very strong but Cong + TDP really surprised him. This alliance will hurt him very bad in few seats in Hyd.
There is absolutely no doubt KCR is banking on BJP to cut a lot of opposition votes and probably has a tacit understanding as well.
The election is still for KCR to take. not ruling out Cong coming back to power but would be surprised. The joker in the pack is truly the TDP which is making any prediction difficult.
For BJP, they will end up getting a higher vote share but may not really translate into more seats.
Their aim seems to be hurt Cong and make life easy for KCR.
Mizoram - It looks like Cong is having a tough time in this state.
What this means for 2019?
TDP has truly emerged as Joker in the pack. If Cong + TDP wind TG, then the alliance in AP will happen, else, Naidu will truly become a joker.
For BJP losing Rajasthan will be a bad. So, will RSS and Modi play ball to ensure Raje's win?
Losing would mean BJP will have to truly fight it out to win the same number from Rajasthan in 2019 and it won't be easy.
If Cong loses all 5 states, well, nothing will happen.
They are already used to it.
Rahul will go on a nice vacation & the congress chamchas will as usual do thalia of the family.
