It’s not just about oil or even fish. I clearly outlined that in the my first post. It’s about among many things future growth industries such as renewables, shipping routes etc.
There’s no way that the Scottish nationalists can say give it 13 years or so we will be fine, just how? Like you said with the massive loss of tax revenue they will suffer this will hit investment hard, in a country which already relies on disproportionate government spending to boost growth due to its tiny population.
What about Scotland’s ageing population? Their population is ageing faster than any other U.K. country and they don’t even have a single ‘young city’ in the nation, they are all in England. Here’s just one stat ; Scotland’s population is continuing to age, with a 50% increase in over 60s projected by 2033. Who is going to work and drive growth?
The bottom line is their bluff has been called and it’s dropped them into the pit with no light. The independence movement will breathing its last very soon. Commentators are already contemplating this.
My personal preference is for Scotland to stay in the Union as it makes the UK a more "balanced" country and you never know when England may one day need Scotland's help. Both England, Scotland and Wales
will always be stronger together than as Independent countries.
The oil boom that lasted for 30 years from the 1980s was instrumental in helping the UK go from the "sick man" of Europe to being one of the most dynamic economies on the continent. That was a case of Scotland helping the rest of the UK, just like now Scotland is being assisted by English tax revenues.
What my fear is that the momentum that the SNP has built up for it's narrative is now so strong that Independence will inevitably follow. This is the first time that polls have consistently shown majority support for Independence.