Regional power rivalry
Monday, September 21, 2009
Talat Masood
Currently, the Obama administration is undertaking a major review of its ****** policy and seeking Congressional approval for a substantial increase in troop strength in Afghanistan to counter the growing power of Taliban. Congress is likely to agree, but after a tough battle as there is growing skepticism about the war in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, Friends of Pakistan meeting is being held in New York this week which is being chaired by President Obama and several heads of state and governments from European, West Asian and Muslim countries including President Sarkozi and Prime Minister Gordon Brown are attending. This demonstrates the worldwide interest in the stability of Pakistan due to its extreme strategic importance. The meeting is to reaffirm their governments commitment to support Pakistan in its efforts at overcoming the huge challenge that it is facing in combating militancy, tiding over economic difficulties and improving governance.
Notwithstanding US and world interest in our security and stability, there is a strong belief that major powers have other goals in the region. After the occupation of Afghanistan, Pentagon has developed close military relations with the Central Asian states and has bases in Kyrgyzstan. Before 9/11, United States was present in only two Muslim countries, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, since then it has spread its tentacles in several Muslim countries. There is a growing perception that US after stabilising Afghanistan could use the cover of security to dominate the hydro-carbon and mineral-rich Central Asia, giving rise to rivalry between major powers.
Obamas regional approach also aims at reshaping the strategic calculus of India, Pakistan and hence the entire South Asian security system. At its core, the strategy aims at Pakistan reorienting its posture towards its western borders.
Russias interest lies in protecting its neighbourhood and is wary of US and NATOs presence in its soft underbelly. Russian and United States interests however converge in combating religiously motivated militancy in Caucasus and Central Asian states. Insurgency in Chechnya and Dagestan could aggravate if Taliban are able to expand their influence. Washington also realises that it needs Russian cooperation in dealing with Afghanistan. During President Obamas recent visit to Moscow, United States and Russia signed an agreement whereby Moscow has allowed over-flights to US aircraft to carry logistic supplies of US and NATO troops to Afghanistan. This provides flexibility to Pentagon as Pakistans land route remains under frequent attack. In this way US dependence and involvement with Russia in the region is on the increase. As pointed out by Henry Kissinger in a recent article that Obama administration is taking a multilateral approach to bring stability to the region. In return Moscow is likely to demand a role in the reconstruction phase of Afghanistan that so far has been denied to it. There is also a renewed interest on the part of Moscow to engage Pakistan and Afghan governments. A four-nation summit of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Russia took place this year under the aegis of Moscow to examine possibilities of cooperation in energy, transport, trade and economic matters.
Beijing supports Washingtons objective in fighting radical Islamic forces. There is great concern in China of the separatist movement in the province of Xingjian and is taking measures to prevent militants or arms from being smuggled across Sino-Pakistan border. Nonetheless, Beijing is apprehensive of US and NATOs long-term objectives and is uncomfortable with their growing and pervasive influence in Pakistan.
China and United States are likely to compete in the region for transit rights, commercial ventures and offshore/inshore energy projects. Chinas energy requirements are growing exponentially with its rising economic power. It is deeply interested in Central Asias rich mineral reserves and oil and gas deposits that could lead to major power rivalry.
India has increased its presence in Afghanistan in a big way with a major investment of over 1.2 billion dollars in infrastructural projects. New Delhi has developed considerable political influence in Afghanistan and has full support of US in increasing its presence. Indian and United States interests converge in fighting Islamic radicalism, containing China and checkmating influence of Iran.
Unless there is marked improvement in Indo-Pak relations New Delhi would continue to support the nationalist insurgency in Balochistan. And would like Pakistan Army to remain engaged in FATA, somewhat similar to what the Americans are wanting, although for different reasons. Indias interest would be hugely compromised with the resurgence of Taliban in Afghanistan. In the long term it will be equally damaging for Pakistan as our Taliban will be motivated and gain strength.
United States uses its presence in Afghanistan to put pressure on Iran. The presence of a large US military presence on Irans eastern flank is a pressure tactic and a reminder that Washington can act militarily if the uranium enrichment programme is perceived to be heading towards a weapons programme. In response Iran has developed its own clientele in the adjoining province of Herat and has developed a close relationship with tribes that are ethnically well disposed. Despite the antagonistic relationship Washington and Tehran see the Taliban as a common enemy.
Saudi Arabia too has vital interests in Pakistan and to a lesser extent in Afghanistan. Riyadh is now a strong partner with US and the western world in the fight against Islamic militants and Al Qaeda remains a common threat.
With Pakistan, Saudi Arabia enjoys a strategic relationship that is mutually beneficial, interdependent and nuanced. Saudis are concerned at the growing influence of Al Qaeda in Pakistan and want to countervail Iranian influence. Interestingly, both Saudis and Pakistanis have an alliance with the US and Washington uses Saudis to influence Pakistan and at times nudges its Arab ally to financially assist Pakistan.
In the past Saudis have been generally dealing with the Taliban through Pakistan but of late have been dealing directly with them as well. Reason for current Saudis involvement is that US and NATO countries trust them and consider the regime as useful interlocutors.
Pakistan should formulate national policies that protect its vital interests in this highly complex and layered interplay of regional and global forces.
The writer is a retired lieutenant-general. Email:
talat@comsats.net.pk
