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Russo-Pakistan Relations " A Review
NFB - July 23 2007
Abdul Ruff Colachal, India
Though both Russia and Pakistan are nuclear powers, a virtual super power Russias economic, technological, security and diplomatic resources are much greater than Pakistan. However, apparently, one factor seems to be common between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Pakistani counterpart, Perez Musharraf: their thoroughness. Both possess strong will power and consolidated their powers by using their military power. While Putin crushed the Chechens fighting for independence stock and barrel, Musharraf toppled Pakistani prime-minister Sheriff who was apparently trying to dislodge General Musharraf himself. Besides, firmness in combating rampant corruption in these growing economies has earned praises for both Putin and Musharraf.
Whereas Putin has the capacity to slam the USA for its interference in Russia's international affairs, Musharraf, pressed by domestic as well across-the-border compulsions, cannot do so, though he, better than the Indian media, knows the role being played by India in the current turmoil in Pakistan. Both could withstand the pressures exerted by both India and USA to forge a steady, though slow, relationship between the countries. Putin is over-conscious about US concerns about Russia entering what is for decades USAs space, while Islamabad is concerned over New Delhis consistent drive to go closer to Washington in order to reduce US-Pakistan bond.
Pakistan and Russia were in totally opposite camps during the so-called Cold-war. Today, Russia can be seen to be distancing itself from India as much as Europe from USA and, regular quarrels between USA and Pakistan. But Islamabad is ever-ready to negotiate with Washington to off-set the shifting scenario. Not only Pervez Musharraf, but all previous leaders of Pakistan have had tough time dealing with its foreign policy to advance its legitimate national interests against the anti-Pakistan strategies of India. It seems, only Musharraf could make Pakistan a some what strong nation capable of facing challenges from across the border and he could even mend ways with India and Indias friend Russia.
Both Musharraf and Putin keenly allowed friendship and cooperation to take roots between the countries. Musharraf's Moscow visit in 2003 set in motion emerging new relations. Russia's gross domestic product last year crossed US$1 trillion, with the federal government retaining a $75 billion fiscal surplus. In addition, Moscow's stabilization fund and its gold and currency reserves totaling almost $400 billion represent the world's third-largest foreign-exchange holding. Pakistan registered an economic growth rate of 7 percent in the financial year 2006-07, the fourth consecutive year of seven percent growth ) Pakistan's annual exports in 2005 amounted to $15 billion (USD), and crossed $18 billion in 2006 and $20 billion in 2007. Pakistan inked a memorandum of understanding in Moscow bringing the Russian natural gas monopoly Gazprom into a planned project to build a US$3.2 billion gas pipeline from Iran to India. In Russia political parties are funded by the oligarchs against the wishes of Putin, In Pakistan the corrupt politicians have adopted a case of a former chief justice involved in corruption to create anarchical situation in the country testing the patience of the General. Even as economic situation improved considerably in both the countries, more in Russia, the fancy for western democracy has made life a bit difficult in both countries.
But by April 2007 the relations between Islamabad and Kremlin became predictably stable with a first ever visit by Russian prime-minister Mikhail E. Fradkov to Islamabad for three days. Pakistan and Russia pledged to boost economic ties. Fradkov focused on ways of stepping up trade and economic links between Russia and Pakistan, "Our economic interaction is very modest, but has very serious prospects," he said. Bilateral trade stood at $411 million in 2006, up from $278 million a year earlier. Fradkov stated that the volume of trade between the two countries is only 400-500 million dollars, which is very low and needs to be expanded Relations between them. But considering the situation two decades back frozen after Islamabad supported Afghan militants fighting Russian military intervention in Afghanistan in the 1980s, the recent position has been remarkable.
Putin's recent business trip to Middle East has been used by Kremlin to comfort Pakistan as well as Central Asian states about its positive intentions for the Islamic world. Meanwhile, India has successfully used Moscow to pressure Pakistan to concede to Indian project of Iran-India oil pipe line. Besides, Kremlin has also achieved a major foreign policy success by making Pakistan to leave the Chechnya issue to Moscow for resolution and also by retreating from its earlier position on Kashmir.
The political war being waged by the opposition parties in Pakistan for quite some time to oust Musharraf has not stopped him from advancing the legitimate interests of Pakistan by expanding economic and security ties with Russia, keeping intact Pakistans stable US friendship. USA preferred to support the Musharraf regime to Putin's, because Musharraf does not have any hidden agenda as well as India's continuous bullying of Islamabad. With a view to placating both the USA and India, Putin had before voiced his concern about the so-called Islamic fundamentalist terrorism. India supported Moscow's Chechnya position but in return it failed get Moscows endorsement for Indian position on Kashmir.
THE BACK-GROUND
Russo-Pakistan relations have come through unfavorable circumstances in a phased manner. In a historical perspective, the first significant SovietPakistan aid agreement was signed in March 1961 for the oil exploration in Pakistan. In September 1966, the Soviet Union and Pakistan concluded an agreement for economic and technical cooperation. At the time of Kosygin's visit to Pakistan in April 1968, the Soviets offered to assist in the building of a steel plant near Karachi and an atomic power plant in East Pakistan. Pravda (April 19, 1968) noted that the Soviet Union was giving aid to Pakistan for the construction of 21 large industrial undertakings. Despite a sharp deterioration in their relations following Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan, Soviet economic aid to Pakistan continued
During the 1980s, tensions increased between the Soviet Union and Pakistan because Pakistan supported Afghan fighters against occupation forces from Soviet Union. Afghanistan experience was terrible for Russia. The withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan, the collapse of the former Soviet Union and emergence of 15 sovereign states, six of them Muslim-majority states resulted in significantly improved bilateral relations. But Pakistan's support for and recognition of the Taliban regime in neighboring Afghanistan remained an ongoing source of tension. The Muslim-majority Central Asian nations emerged and began developing their own foreign policy to engage the major nations of the region - Russia, India and China - as well as the US, in building their future. Following attacks in the Sept 11, 2001, Russia as a partner in US led terror war, Moscow softened its stance on Pakistan.
Of course, Russia-Pakistan relations could not have taken off while the India-Pakistan relationship remains stormy. Surely Moscow realizes that the India factor impinges on both sides of the relationship. And Pakistan's objective, as was evident from Musharraf's approach in Moscow, is to see that Russia establishes a "balance" in ties with India and Pakistan. Putin's projection of Russia as an honest broker friendly to both, rather than a country with a tilt toward one side, was a big step forward. Throughout the entirety of these two definitive decades of Cold war, Russia-Pakistan relations remained frozen in a state of inactive hostility. In Russian eyes, Pakistan was just another unruly and unreliable Muslim nation that was not only close to the US and China, but also tended to define itself by its enmity toward Russia's natural ally, India. From the Pakistani viewpoint, Russia was a diminished power committed wholly to friendship with India. Islamabad has always considered Moscow to be completely biased on the India-Pakistan issue and, therefore, not worth courting seriously.
THE MOVE
In Moscow's redrawn scheme of international priorities Russo-Pakistan ties had to be determined by Russia' own priorities in domestic as well as foreign affairs. The new Russian administration under Putin has been busy redefining its role in the merging global order. Foreign policy experts in Moscow observed that sending Vladimirovich to Islamabad virtually on the eve of Putin's visit to New Delhi is a clear signal of Russia's new foreign policy priorities. On assuming office President Putin was invited by Pervez Musharraf had sent invitation to visit Pakistan. The announcement on Sept 28, 2000 of an official visit of Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin to Pakistan in October following his sojourn in New Delhi, had taken diplomatic circles here by surprise. Strong foundations were expected to be laid in Putin's proposed visit in 2000 to Pakistan along with India for an era of mutually beneficial, relations and smooth functioning of ties. Putin had planned the trip as a way to boost Russia's profile in South Asia and East Asia, as well as securing trade and investment ties with both countries.
Moscow policy for Pakistan was re-oriented, with a greater focus on South Asian region.
Russian as well as Indian media reported that Pakistan harbored and trained some of the anti-Russian secessionists from Chechnya and noted Islamic militants from the Freehand Valley in Central Asia. Weakened internally and lacking adequate leverage on Islamabad, Moscow could only blame Pakistan. Putin realized that as a great power, Russia bordering Central Asian countries must provide security to its own geographical territory. Putin promptly took a forward step by establishing ties with Islamabad for several reasons.
However it took a couple of years even for Putin's Russia to get over its former pro-India mindset and reach out to Pakistan. A Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism between Pakistan and Russia was established after a meeting held between presidents of Pakistan and Russia in June 2002. Pakistan appreciated Russian view on terrorism: the war against international terrorism could be won when the root causes of terrorism like poverty, regional conflicts, systematic injustices and problems related to globalization were resolved.
TURNING POINT
The turning point in IslamabadMoscow ties came about in February 2003 by Putin's invitation to General President Pervez Musharraf to visit Moscow which in turn led to a counter-invitation by Pakistan, to make it the first time in Pakistan's history that a Russian head of state would have visited Islamabad. (The first visit by a Pakistani leader for 30 years since Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in the 1970s).Pervez discussed trade and defense ties with President Putin at the Kremlin. Cultural agreement includes a draft on bilateral cultural exchanges in 2003-2006. Pakistan's elation over the Russian visit by General Musharraf has led to the official Pakistani media terming it as "historic"; "path breaking"; "history in the making" and "forward looking". Pakistan organized the first ever solo Pakistan exhibition in St. Petersburg in early September 2004.
Musharrafs Russian visit may be path breaking in Pakistani perceptions, but a "terrible" exercise for India. In relation to Kashmir, India was worried that the Pakistani Presidents visit to Moscow took place in the backdrop of Pakistan's celebrating of the "Kashmir Week" expressing solidarity with Kashmiri people. India is very conscious of the historic baggage that blights radical developments in Pak-Russia relationships. Followed by, the Putin's visit to Islamabad, following Musharraf's historical visit to Moscow 2003 was eagerly awaited only to be shelved by Moscow.
The Pakistan-Russia rapprochement envisaged by presidents Pervez Musharraf and Vladimir Putin at a Moscow summit in February 2003 has not yet been fully implemented. Nevertheless, since the visit of Musharraf to Moscow, relations between the two countries began making progress. Pakistan's relations with Russia did witness a qualitative improvement and there has been a greater understanding of Pakistan's policies at the highest level in Russia. An Inter-governmental Joint Commission was established for accelerating the economic and technical cooperation between the two countries.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Safonov met Pakistan Foreign Secretary Riaz Khokhar in Islamabad in Feb 2004 and emphasized that that the visit of President Pervez Musharraf to Moscow last year was a historic milestone in bilateral relations which are expanding since then and that Pakistan was committed to cooperating with Russia in the campaign against international terrorism, it was officially announced here.
Officials from both the countries reiterate that t he relations are developing "quite successfully" in diplomatic, political, economic and trade fields after the visit and the improvement of bilateral ties is due to leadership of both the countries. Obvious interference from New Delhi some how was blocking any fruitful relationship between the two. It was felt that to promote bilateral economic cooperation, Pakistan should grant Russia Most Favored Nation status or consider mutually lowering tariffs, besides, bilateral economic cooperation, primarily in the fields of heavy industry, oil and gas, aerospace technologies, textile and agriculture. They sought cooperation in steel sector. Pakistan invited Russians to invest in the automobile sector in Pakistan for affordable cars for the common man. Both aimed at the expansion of bilateral ties, problems of conflict resolution in the region, as well as disarmament, particularly in the nuclear sphere.
Pakistan expressed its desire for early expansion in the Pakistan Steel Mill. He also renewed President General Pervez Musharrafs invitation to President Vladimir Putin to visit Pakistan at the earliest. The two sides discussed bilateral ties, Pakistan-India relations, counter-terrorism measures taken by both, the menace of drug trafficking and other issues of regional and international importance were discussed during the meeting, a Foreign Office statement said. In Dec 2004, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak was in Pakistan to attend the second session of the Pakistan-Russian Consultative Group on strategic stability
Meanwhile, collaborative actions in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), grouping organized by China and Russia that also includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, offered Pakistan and Russia to understand each others concerns. Under insistence from Putin, Islamabad's move to join SCO, a regional grouping, dominated by China and Russia further cemented the ties with Moscow. SCO offered Pakistan to join Russia, China and Central Asian States to advance its national interest as well. Russia is shoring up its assets within Afghanistan to ensure smooth conduct of trade and transportation. Mostly Russia desired that Pakistan joins SCO as a full member.
"I think bilateral (Pakistan-Russia) relations are good, we have diplomatic and political understanding between our countries," Musharraf said on 07 June 2006 in an interview with Russian news agency ITAR-TASS Moscow. "There is a mutuality of interest in this region between Russia and Pakistan." Islamabad enjoys influence in Central Asia, a region with which Pakistan has historical and cultural bonds and wants to expand trade, commercial and economic ties with, Pervez insists. By becoming a full member of SCO, Russo-Pakistan ties would further expand and diversify.
In Nov 2006, the visiting Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov wanted to broaden and diversify mutually advantageous cooperation with Pakistan, a country playing a significant role both in the region and in the Islamic world as a whole. They agreed to promptly promote Inter-governmental Commission on Trade, Economic and Scientific Cooperation for early implementation of projects already agreed upon between the two sides. His Pakistani counter-part Kasuri welcomed Russia's strong political and economic interest in Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline project. They discussed the possibility of using Iran as transit corridor between Russia and Pakistan to shorten the time taken for the movement of goods between the two countries. Pakistan could benefit from Russia to equip its Railway with new signal and rolling stock. He pointed out that bilateral trade between the two had more than doubled last year to over $500 million.
Both sides discussed the possibilities of developing rail links with Iran and other areas in the SCO region from Pakistan; rail links to Central Asia from Gwadar and Russia has shown some interest in this area; energy cooperation in detail including cooperation in exploration of oil and gas reserves, mineral, coal, and assistance in hydro-electricity production as well as laying pipeline for gas and other energy resources.
Identifying prospective areas of trade and economic cooperation, Musharraf said Pakistan's large textile, oil and gas sectors could export products to Russia. In defense, he said, Pakistan is interested in purchases from Russia, and added that in this area Russia "should also not have an Indo-centric approach to Pakistan". Pakistan is eager to reinvigorate relations with Russia and expand bilateral relations in all fields particularly defense and communications. The nature of Russian relations with CIS states and its impact on Pakistan is important to observe. Pakistan is interested in strengthening ties with CIS for economic cooperation. Many Russian companies were satisfied with Pakistan government's policies in oil and gas sectors.
Finally, in May 2007 the Russian Prime Minister visited Islamabad to reciprocate the sentiments expressed by Musharraf in terms of opening a new chapter in Pakistan-Russia bilateral relations. He said Pakistan enjoyed an important place in Russia's foreign policy and that Russia deeply appreciated Pakistan's endeavors towards peace, amity and prosperity in the region. Russia is against the weapons of mass destruction and added that Pakistan is also following the same approach. Both signed two agreements, one on promoting cooperation in the fields of culture, arts, archaeology, archives and cinema and the other for increasing cooperation in combating illicit trafficking, abuse of narcotics and psychotropic substances. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Pakistan earlier than Fradkov and held talks with President Pervez Musharraf and his Pakistani counterpart Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri and discussed steps to broaden bilateral ties. While Moscow retains a strategic partnership with India, it is increasingly focusing on relations with Pakistan to check the influence of radical Islam in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Pakistan and Russia are to fight terrorism together and the two countries agreed to activate it for expanding cooperation consultations should be on regular basis.
Under the agreement, Pakistan and Russia agreed to implement the program of cultural, educational and scientific exchanges during 2007-09. Russia and Pakistan agreed to finalize bilateral investment treaty as well as a treaty on avoiding double taxation for the benefit of investors to invest in each other's country. They discussed energy cooperation in detail including cooperation in exploration of oil and gas reserves, mineral, coal, and assistance in hydro-electricity production as well as laying pipeline for gas and other energy resources. Pakistan and Russia agreed also to promote economic diplomacy and expand cooperation in the war on terrorism and extremism.
SOME OBSERVATIONS
The analysts on emerging Russo-Pakistan ties argue that Russia's South Asia policy has been under-going change in response to the trend of a more proximate strategic partnership between USA and India (Russias major weapon consumer) emerging, and Russia looked for wider markets for the sale of its military equipment, and Russia's invitation motivated by United States prodding to assist Pakistan in getting a dialogue opened with India in view of close relations in the past.
Pakistan's ties with Russia were hampered for want of bold will from both sides. Lucrative military trade between Russia and India prevented Russia from going for any positive relations with Islamabad. The position has changed after Putin became the Chief of the Kremlin in 2000.Putin, who, armed by a balanced foreign policy across the globe and aimed at making Russian Presidency strong by driving Russia into a super power once again, began promoting cooperation between Moscow and Islamabad a major shift in Moscows Asian policy.
In Kremlin's new policy, Pakistan is not one of the focus areas, mainly because as a major non-NATO ally Pakistan is assured of all necessary military support by the US-led NATO and as such it needs no Russian weapons systems that India procures regularly for targeting Pakistan. However, Pakistan and Russia have come to realize that they need each other to maintain stability in the highly volatile region. Moscow sees importance of Pakistan, having close ties with both China and the US, though not a major economic power. Russia seems to trust Pakistan which is also in the middle of the war against terrorism - in fact, Pakistan holds many potentially critical cards in this key battle.
Pakistan's closeness to China is yet another factor that Russia takes seriously. Significantly, China welcomed Musharraf's visit to Moscow and hoped that it would further help peace and development in the region. When asked to comment on the visit, a spokesperson of the Chinese government said that Pakistan and Russia are both friendly neighbors of China.The creation of a new dimension of the regional system of international relations including the Central Asian Republics, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia and China is visibly underway. The fruitful development of bilateral relations between Russia and Pakistan is considered necessary for dealing with regional problems.
The obvious gains of Russia's new foreign policy cannot be denied even in South Asia. Following Sept 11, issues of terrorism brought the Kremlin to forge initial ties with Pakistan. Pragmatism and flexible maneuvering cultivated by Putin has brought much better results than his predecessor Yeltsin's neo-imperial style with its claims to the role of a great power and utter helplessness of its attempts to have at least some influence in the modern world. Pakistans external policies got fair recognition in Moscow, too. Thus, when in Moscow, Musharraf, offered Russia to expand cooperation in various spheres, and also recognized that Chechnya was Russia's internal affair. Recently, Moscow promptly praised the Military operation at Lal Mosque in Islamabad on 12 July, killing several persons.
The Moscow's relationship with Islamabad is yet fully overcome the India-axis. Earlier annoyed by the emerging bond between the two, India "skillfully" used the trade lever to pressure Moscow to retreat, but when failed, it tries to take advantages out of it by way of clinching the long pending Iran-India pipeline via Pakistan. The Indian public opinion is still molded by the media heavily against any dialogue with Pakistan because of Pakistan's so-called "unwarranted proxy war", but it is presumably to pressure Islamabad to cooperate on Iran-India pipeline. Both USA and India watch the progress in Pak-Russian relations impatiently, because if that bond gets strengthened, USA might lose a helpful strategic partner in the region, while India would be put in tight spot, losing its bargaining power with Russia even more.
Impressed by the new cash of India got from privatization-cum-liberalization trend, Russia has managed to retain its one of the most wanted customer for its weapons.New Delhi expects that the ongoing rapprochement could even develop positively to India's advantage, if Russians succeed in converting Pakistan into a responsible actor in South Asia. India, making all efforts to clinch the nuclear deal with USA, seems to be confident that today it is in a unique position where its power potential in the coming decade cannot be dismissed lightly by both Russia and USA, politically and strategically. This signals that in order to further the interests of, both Russia and Pakistan have to plan their future strategy very carefully. Both countries have sought to further narrow the political chasm that separated them since the Cold War days when the former Soviet Union had close ties with India.
From the Cold climate to a warm atmosphere, the Russo-Pakistan ties have come a long way and the gains so far have been remarkable. The present level of Pakistan-Russia relations does not meet the existing favorable opportunities for interaction between the two countries. Moscow and Islamabad are expected to undertake certain vigorous efforts to push mutual cooperation forward. Moscow is fully aware of Islamabad's political and religious compulsions. Both concurred on issues like terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation; and regional cooperation. President Putin or any other future President of Russia has to make a trip to Pakistan to stabilize the current ties. Meanwhile, the bilateral relationship still has to travel a great distance before yielding desired fruits.
-------------------------------------------
Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal is aResearch Scholar,School of International Studies Jawaharlal Nehru University, NewDelhi
http://www.bangladesh-web.com/view....&hidType=EDT&hidRecord=0000000000000000166511
NFB - July 23 2007
Abdul Ruff Colachal, India
Though both Russia and Pakistan are nuclear powers, a virtual super power Russias economic, technological, security and diplomatic resources are much greater than Pakistan. However, apparently, one factor seems to be common between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Pakistani counterpart, Perez Musharraf: their thoroughness. Both possess strong will power and consolidated their powers by using their military power. While Putin crushed the Chechens fighting for independence stock and barrel, Musharraf toppled Pakistani prime-minister Sheriff who was apparently trying to dislodge General Musharraf himself. Besides, firmness in combating rampant corruption in these growing economies has earned praises for both Putin and Musharraf.
Whereas Putin has the capacity to slam the USA for its interference in Russia's international affairs, Musharraf, pressed by domestic as well across-the-border compulsions, cannot do so, though he, better than the Indian media, knows the role being played by India in the current turmoil in Pakistan. Both could withstand the pressures exerted by both India and USA to forge a steady, though slow, relationship between the countries. Putin is over-conscious about US concerns about Russia entering what is for decades USAs space, while Islamabad is concerned over New Delhis consistent drive to go closer to Washington in order to reduce US-Pakistan bond.
Pakistan and Russia were in totally opposite camps during the so-called Cold-war. Today, Russia can be seen to be distancing itself from India as much as Europe from USA and, regular quarrels between USA and Pakistan. But Islamabad is ever-ready to negotiate with Washington to off-set the shifting scenario. Not only Pervez Musharraf, but all previous leaders of Pakistan have had tough time dealing with its foreign policy to advance its legitimate national interests against the anti-Pakistan strategies of India. It seems, only Musharraf could make Pakistan a some what strong nation capable of facing challenges from across the border and he could even mend ways with India and Indias friend Russia.
Both Musharraf and Putin keenly allowed friendship and cooperation to take roots between the countries. Musharraf's Moscow visit in 2003 set in motion emerging new relations. Russia's gross domestic product last year crossed US$1 trillion, with the federal government retaining a $75 billion fiscal surplus. In addition, Moscow's stabilization fund and its gold and currency reserves totaling almost $400 billion represent the world's third-largest foreign-exchange holding. Pakistan registered an economic growth rate of 7 percent in the financial year 2006-07, the fourth consecutive year of seven percent growth ) Pakistan's annual exports in 2005 amounted to $15 billion (USD), and crossed $18 billion in 2006 and $20 billion in 2007. Pakistan inked a memorandum of understanding in Moscow bringing the Russian natural gas monopoly Gazprom into a planned project to build a US$3.2 billion gas pipeline from Iran to India. In Russia political parties are funded by the oligarchs against the wishes of Putin, In Pakistan the corrupt politicians have adopted a case of a former chief justice involved in corruption to create anarchical situation in the country testing the patience of the General. Even as economic situation improved considerably in both the countries, more in Russia, the fancy for western democracy has made life a bit difficult in both countries.
But by April 2007 the relations between Islamabad and Kremlin became predictably stable with a first ever visit by Russian prime-minister Mikhail E. Fradkov to Islamabad for three days. Pakistan and Russia pledged to boost economic ties. Fradkov focused on ways of stepping up trade and economic links between Russia and Pakistan, "Our economic interaction is very modest, but has very serious prospects," he said. Bilateral trade stood at $411 million in 2006, up from $278 million a year earlier. Fradkov stated that the volume of trade between the two countries is only 400-500 million dollars, which is very low and needs to be expanded Relations between them. But considering the situation two decades back frozen after Islamabad supported Afghan militants fighting Russian military intervention in Afghanistan in the 1980s, the recent position has been remarkable.
Putin's recent business trip to Middle East has been used by Kremlin to comfort Pakistan as well as Central Asian states about its positive intentions for the Islamic world. Meanwhile, India has successfully used Moscow to pressure Pakistan to concede to Indian project of Iran-India oil pipe line. Besides, Kremlin has also achieved a major foreign policy success by making Pakistan to leave the Chechnya issue to Moscow for resolution and also by retreating from its earlier position on Kashmir.
The political war being waged by the opposition parties in Pakistan for quite some time to oust Musharraf has not stopped him from advancing the legitimate interests of Pakistan by expanding economic and security ties with Russia, keeping intact Pakistans stable US friendship. USA preferred to support the Musharraf regime to Putin's, because Musharraf does not have any hidden agenda as well as India's continuous bullying of Islamabad. With a view to placating both the USA and India, Putin had before voiced his concern about the so-called Islamic fundamentalist terrorism. India supported Moscow's Chechnya position but in return it failed get Moscows endorsement for Indian position on Kashmir.
THE BACK-GROUND
Russo-Pakistan relations have come through unfavorable circumstances in a phased manner. In a historical perspective, the first significant SovietPakistan aid agreement was signed in March 1961 for the oil exploration in Pakistan. In September 1966, the Soviet Union and Pakistan concluded an agreement for economic and technical cooperation. At the time of Kosygin's visit to Pakistan in April 1968, the Soviets offered to assist in the building of a steel plant near Karachi and an atomic power plant in East Pakistan. Pravda (April 19, 1968) noted that the Soviet Union was giving aid to Pakistan for the construction of 21 large industrial undertakings. Despite a sharp deterioration in their relations following Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan, Soviet economic aid to Pakistan continued
During the 1980s, tensions increased between the Soviet Union and Pakistan because Pakistan supported Afghan fighters against occupation forces from Soviet Union. Afghanistan experience was terrible for Russia. The withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan, the collapse of the former Soviet Union and emergence of 15 sovereign states, six of them Muslim-majority states resulted in significantly improved bilateral relations. But Pakistan's support for and recognition of the Taliban regime in neighboring Afghanistan remained an ongoing source of tension. The Muslim-majority Central Asian nations emerged and began developing their own foreign policy to engage the major nations of the region - Russia, India and China - as well as the US, in building their future. Following attacks in the Sept 11, 2001, Russia as a partner in US led terror war, Moscow softened its stance on Pakistan.
Of course, Russia-Pakistan relations could not have taken off while the India-Pakistan relationship remains stormy. Surely Moscow realizes that the India factor impinges on both sides of the relationship. And Pakistan's objective, as was evident from Musharraf's approach in Moscow, is to see that Russia establishes a "balance" in ties with India and Pakistan. Putin's projection of Russia as an honest broker friendly to both, rather than a country with a tilt toward one side, was a big step forward. Throughout the entirety of these two definitive decades of Cold war, Russia-Pakistan relations remained frozen in a state of inactive hostility. In Russian eyes, Pakistan was just another unruly and unreliable Muslim nation that was not only close to the US and China, but also tended to define itself by its enmity toward Russia's natural ally, India. From the Pakistani viewpoint, Russia was a diminished power committed wholly to friendship with India. Islamabad has always considered Moscow to be completely biased on the India-Pakistan issue and, therefore, not worth courting seriously.
THE MOVE
In Moscow's redrawn scheme of international priorities Russo-Pakistan ties had to be determined by Russia' own priorities in domestic as well as foreign affairs. The new Russian administration under Putin has been busy redefining its role in the merging global order. Foreign policy experts in Moscow observed that sending Vladimirovich to Islamabad virtually on the eve of Putin's visit to New Delhi is a clear signal of Russia's new foreign policy priorities. On assuming office President Putin was invited by Pervez Musharraf had sent invitation to visit Pakistan. The announcement on Sept 28, 2000 of an official visit of Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin to Pakistan in October following his sojourn in New Delhi, had taken diplomatic circles here by surprise. Strong foundations were expected to be laid in Putin's proposed visit in 2000 to Pakistan along with India for an era of mutually beneficial, relations and smooth functioning of ties. Putin had planned the trip as a way to boost Russia's profile in South Asia and East Asia, as well as securing trade and investment ties with both countries.
Moscow policy for Pakistan was re-oriented, with a greater focus on South Asian region.
Russian as well as Indian media reported that Pakistan harbored and trained some of the anti-Russian secessionists from Chechnya and noted Islamic militants from the Freehand Valley in Central Asia. Weakened internally and lacking adequate leverage on Islamabad, Moscow could only blame Pakistan. Putin realized that as a great power, Russia bordering Central Asian countries must provide security to its own geographical territory. Putin promptly took a forward step by establishing ties with Islamabad for several reasons.
However it took a couple of years even for Putin's Russia to get over its former pro-India mindset and reach out to Pakistan. A Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism between Pakistan and Russia was established after a meeting held between presidents of Pakistan and Russia in June 2002. Pakistan appreciated Russian view on terrorism: the war against international terrorism could be won when the root causes of terrorism like poverty, regional conflicts, systematic injustices and problems related to globalization were resolved.
TURNING POINT
The turning point in IslamabadMoscow ties came about in February 2003 by Putin's invitation to General President Pervez Musharraf to visit Moscow which in turn led to a counter-invitation by Pakistan, to make it the first time in Pakistan's history that a Russian head of state would have visited Islamabad. (The first visit by a Pakistani leader for 30 years since Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in the 1970s).Pervez discussed trade and defense ties with President Putin at the Kremlin. Cultural agreement includes a draft on bilateral cultural exchanges in 2003-2006. Pakistan's elation over the Russian visit by General Musharraf has led to the official Pakistani media terming it as "historic"; "path breaking"; "history in the making" and "forward looking". Pakistan organized the first ever solo Pakistan exhibition in St. Petersburg in early September 2004.
Musharrafs Russian visit may be path breaking in Pakistani perceptions, but a "terrible" exercise for India. In relation to Kashmir, India was worried that the Pakistani Presidents visit to Moscow took place in the backdrop of Pakistan's celebrating of the "Kashmir Week" expressing solidarity with Kashmiri people. India is very conscious of the historic baggage that blights radical developments in Pak-Russia relationships. Followed by, the Putin's visit to Islamabad, following Musharraf's historical visit to Moscow 2003 was eagerly awaited only to be shelved by Moscow.
The Pakistan-Russia rapprochement envisaged by presidents Pervez Musharraf and Vladimir Putin at a Moscow summit in February 2003 has not yet been fully implemented. Nevertheless, since the visit of Musharraf to Moscow, relations between the two countries began making progress. Pakistan's relations with Russia did witness a qualitative improvement and there has been a greater understanding of Pakistan's policies at the highest level in Russia. An Inter-governmental Joint Commission was established for accelerating the economic and technical cooperation between the two countries.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Safonov met Pakistan Foreign Secretary Riaz Khokhar in Islamabad in Feb 2004 and emphasized that that the visit of President Pervez Musharraf to Moscow last year was a historic milestone in bilateral relations which are expanding since then and that Pakistan was committed to cooperating with Russia in the campaign against international terrorism, it was officially announced here.
Officials from both the countries reiterate that t he relations are developing "quite successfully" in diplomatic, political, economic and trade fields after the visit and the improvement of bilateral ties is due to leadership of both the countries. Obvious interference from New Delhi some how was blocking any fruitful relationship between the two. It was felt that to promote bilateral economic cooperation, Pakistan should grant Russia Most Favored Nation status or consider mutually lowering tariffs, besides, bilateral economic cooperation, primarily in the fields of heavy industry, oil and gas, aerospace technologies, textile and agriculture. They sought cooperation in steel sector. Pakistan invited Russians to invest in the automobile sector in Pakistan for affordable cars for the common man. Both aimed at the expansion of bilateral ties, problems of conflict resolution in the region, as well as disarmament, particularly in the nuclear sphere.
Pakistan expressed its desire for early expansion in the Pakistan Steel Mill. He also renewed President General Pervez Musharrafs invitation to President Vladimir Putin to visit Pakistan at the earliest. The two sides discussed bilateral ties, Pakistan-India relations, counter-terrorism measures taken by both, the menace of drug trafficking and other issues of regional and international importance were discussed during the meeting, a Foreign Office statement said. In Dec 2004, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak was in Pakistan to attend the second session of the Pakistan-Russian Consultative Group on strategic stability
Meanwhile, collaborative actions in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), grouping organized by China and Russia that also includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, offered Pakistan and Russia to understand each others concerns. Under insistence from Putin, Islamabad's move to join SCO, a regional grouping, dominated by China and Russia further cemented the ties with Moscow. SCO offered Pakistan to join Russia, China and Central Asian States to advance its national interest as well. Russia is shoring up its assets within Afghanistan to ensure smooth conduct of trade and transportation. Mostly Russia desired that Pakistan joins SCO as a full member.
"I think bilateral (Pakistan-Russia) relations are good, we have diplomatic and political understanding between our countries," Musharraf said on 07 June 2006 in an interview with Russian news agency ITAR-TASS Moscow. "There is a mutuality of interest in this region between Russia and Pakistan." Islamabad enjoys influence in Central Asia, a region with which Pakistan has historical and cultural bonds and wants to expand trade, commercial and economic ties with, Pervez insists. By becoming a full member of SCO, Russo-Pakistan ties would further expand and diversify.
In Nov 2006, the visiting Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov wanted to broaden and diversify mutually advantageous cooperation with Pakistan, a country playing a significant role both in the region and in the Islamic world as a whole. They agreed to promptly promote Inter-governmental Commission on Trade, Economic and Scientific Cooperation for early implementation of projects already agreed upon between the two sides. His Pakistani counter-part Kasuri welcomed Russia's strong political and economic interest in Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline project. They discussed the possibility of using Iran as transit corridor between Russia and Pakistan to shorten the time taken for the movement of goods between the two countries. Pakistan could benefit from Russia to equip its Railway with new signal and rolling stock. He pointed out that bilateral trade between the two had more than doubled last year to over $500 million.
Both sides discussed the possibilities of developing rail links with Iran and other areas in the SCO region from Pakistan; rail links to Central Asia from Gwadar and Russia has shown some interest in this area; energy cooperation in detail including cooperation in exploration of oil and gas reserves, mineral, coal, and assistance in hydro-electricity production as well as laying pipeline for gas and other energy resources.
Identifying prospective areas of trade and economic cooperation, Musharraf said Pakistan's large textile, oil and gas sectors could export products to Russia. In defense, he said, Pakistan is interested in purchases from Russia, and added that in this area Russia "should also not have an Indo-centric approach to Pakistan". Pakistan is eager to reinvigorate relations with Russia and expand bilateral relations in all fields particularly defense and communications. The nature of Russian relations with CIS states and its impact on Pakistan is important to observe. Pakistan is interested in strengthening ties with CIS for economic cooperation. Many Russian companies were satisfied with Pakistan government's policies in oil and gas sectors.
Finally, in May 2007 the Russian Prime Minister visited Islamabad to reciprocate the sentiments expressed by Musharraf in terms of opening a new chapter in Pakistan-Russia bilateral relations. He said Pakistan enjoyed an important place in Russia's foreign policy and that Russia deeply appreciated Pakistan's endeavors towards peace, amity and prosperity in the region. Russia is against the weapons of mass destruction and added that Pakistan is also following the same approach. Both signed two agreements, one on promoting cooperation in the fields of culture, arts, archaeology, archives and cinema and the other for increasing cooperation in combating illicit trafficking, abuse of narcotics and psychotropic substances. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Pakistan earlier than Fradkov and held talks with President Pervez Musharraf and his Pakistani counterpart Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri and discussed steps to broaden bilateral ties. While Moscow retains a strategic partnership with India, it is increasingly focusing on relations with Pakistan to check the influence of radical Islam in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Pakistan and Russia are to fight terrorism together and the two countries agreed to activate it for expanding cooperation consultations should be on regular basis.
Under the agreement, Pakistan and Russia agreed to implement the program of cultural, educational and scientific exchanges during 2007-09. Russia and Pakistan agreed to finalize bilateral investment treaty as well as a treaty on avoiding double taxation for the benefit of investors to invest in each other's country. They discussed energy cooperation in detail including cooperation in exploration of oil and gas reserves, mineral, coal, and assistance in hydro-electricity production as well as laying pipeline for gas and other energy resources. Pakistan and Russia agreed also to promote economic diplomacy and expand cooperation in the war on terrorism and extremism.
SOME OBSERVATIONS
The analysts on emerging Russo-Pakistan ties argue that Russia's South Asia policy has been under-going change in response to the trend of a more proximate strategic partnership between USA and India (Russias major weapon consumer) emerging, and Russia looked for wider markets for the sale of its military equipment, and Russia's invitation motivated by United States prodding to assist Pakistan in getting a dialogue opened with India in view of close relations in the past.
Pakistan's ties with Russia were hampered for want of bold will from both sides. Lucrative military trade between Russia and India prevented Russia from going for any positive relations with Islamabad. The position has changed after Putin became the Chief of the Kremlin in 2000.Putin, who, armed by a balanced foreign policy across the globe and aimed at making Russian Presidency strong by driving Russia into a super power once again, began promoting cooperation between Moscow and Islamabad a major shift in Moscows Asian policy.
In Kremlin's new policy, Pakistan is not one of the focus areas, mainly because as a major non-NATO ally Pakistan is assured of all necessary military support by the US-led NATO and as such it needs no Russian weapons systems that India procures regularly for targeting Pakistan. However, Pakistan and Russia have come to realize that they need each other to maintain stability in the highly volatile region. Moscow sees importance of Pakistan, having close ties with both China and the US, though not a major economic power. Russia seems to trust Pakistan which is also in the middle of the war against terrorism - in fact, Pakistan holds many potentially critical cards in this key battle.
Pakistan's closeness to China is yet another factor that Russia takes seriously. Significantly, China welcomed Musharraf's visit to Moscow and hoped that it would further help peace and development in the region. When asked to comment on the visit, a spokesperson of the Chinese government said that Pakistan and Russia are both friendly neighbors of China.The creation of a new dimension of the regional system of international relations including the Central Asian Republics, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia and China is visibly underway. The fruitful development of bilateral relations between Russia and Pakistan is considered necessary for dealing with regional problems.
The obvious gains of Russia's new foreign policy cannot be denied even in South Asia. Following Sept 11, issues of terrorism brought the Kremlin to forge initial ties with Pakistan. Pragmatism and flexible maneuvering cultivated by Putin has brought much better results than his predecessor Yeltsin's neo-imperial style with its claims to the role of a great power and utter helplessness of its attempts to have at least some influence in the modern world. Pakistans external policies got fair recognition in Moscow, too. Thus, when in Moscow, Musharraf, offered Russia to expand cooperation in various spheres, and also recognized that Chechnya was Russia's internal affair. Recently, Moscow promptly praised the Military operation at Lal Mosque in Islamabad on 12 July, killing several persons.
The Moscow's relationship with Islamabad is yet fully overcome the India-axis. Earlier annoyed by the emerging bond between the two, India "skillfully" used the trade lever to pressure Moscow to retreat, but when failed, it tries to take advantages out of it by way of clinching the long pending Iran-India pipeline via Pakistan. The Indian public opinion is still molded by the media heavily against any dialogue with Pakistan because of Pakistan's so-called "unwarranted proxy war", but it is presumably to pressure Islamabad to cooperate on Iran-India pipeline. Both USA and India watch the progress in Pak-Russian relations impatiently, because if that bond gets strengthened, USA might lose a helpful strategic partner in the region, while India would be put in tight spot, losing its bargaining power with Russia even more.
Impressed by the new cash of India got from privatization-cum-liberalization trend, Russia has managed to retain its one of the most wanted customer for its weapons.New Delhi expects that the ongoing rapprochement could even develop positively to India's advantage, if Russians succeed in converting Pakistan into a responsible actor in South Asia. India, making all efforts to clinch the nuclear deal with USA, seems to be confident that today it is in a unique position where its power potential in the coming decade cannot be dismissed lightly by both Russia and USA, politically and strategically. This signals that in order to further the interests of, both Russia and Pakistan have to plan their future strategy very carefully. Both countries have sought to further narrow the political chasm that separated them since the Cold War days when the former Soviet Union had close ties with India.
From the Cold climate to a warm atmosphere, the Russo-Pakistan ties have come a long way and the gains so far have been remarkable. The present level of Pakistan-Russia relations does not meet the existing favorable opportunities for interaction between the two countries. Moscow and Islamabad are expected to undertake certain vigorous efforts to push mutual cooperation forward. Moscow is fully aware of Islamabad's political and religious compulsions. Both concurred on issues like terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation; and regional cooperation. President Putin or any other future President of Russia has to make a trip to Pakistan to stabilize the current ties. Meanwhile, the bilateral relationship still has to travel a great distance before yielding desired fruits.
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Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal is aResearch Scholar,School of International Studies Jawaharlal Nehru University, NewDelhi
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