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Russian troops in the final stages of readiness add to concerns for Ukraine
Published 19 seconds ago on
February 4, 2022
KYIV, Ukraine While the Russian military is not yet capable of carrying out a total invasion of Ukraine, part of its army has reached full combat power and appears to be in the final stages of readiness for military action if the Kremlin orders it, according to an assessment by the top command of the Ukrainian army.
A particular concern for Ukrainian officials is the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia captured from Ukraine in 2014. In the past two weeks, Russia has deployed 10,000 additional troops to the region, including infantry and air force; Worst of all, it has placed some commands at the highest level of readiness, according to the military.
Along with recent efforts to strengthen forces near two Kremlin-backed separatist enclaves in Ukraine, the deployment means Russia may soon be fully prepared to launch military action along the about 800 miles from the eastern and southern borders of Ukraine, according to estimates.
The assessment was described in general terms by a senior Ukrainian military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to uncover confidential intelligence findings. It is broadly consistent with newly released satellite images showing a significant military rise in Crimea in recent weeks.
But it is not just the Crimea. Along most of the border with Ukraine, analysts are seeing what they describe as a practical example of a modern army making final preparations for war. They cited the advent of logistical infrastructure such as hospitals and communications units, elements of electronic warfare intended to disrupt enemy communications, the air force and additional troops to manage equipment that had previously been deployed.
What worries me is how methodically they are going through this, said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at RAND Corporation. It’s from the book. You know what will come next and it shows up.
The Kremlin’s ultimate goal remained unclear, the Ukrainian official said, echoing the determination of US officials who say Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has not yet decided whether to attack.
Russia has about 130,000 troops stationed near the border with Ukraine, US and Ukrainian officials say. The Kremlin has repeatedly said it has no plans to attack, and Mr. Putin, while claiming the United States was trying to push Russia into war, was less harsh in his language in a speech this week, leaving the door open. for future diplomacy.
The Ukrainian military’s assessment of Russian capabilities differs from the one the Pentagon gave last week, which said Moscow had deployed enough troops and military equipment to go beyond a limited incursion into border regions only. But that brought Ukraine’s military leadership closer to the US position.
And painted a horrific picture of Russian combat readiness in Crimea, an area that has attracted less attention; for months the whole focus has been on the gathering of Russian troops in the east and, most recently, its movement of forces in Belarus on the northern border of Ukraine.
At the head of tens of thousands of troops already stationed in Crimea, Russia has recently deployed two tactical groups of additional battalions, battle-ready forces of up to 1,000 troops plus tanks, armor and artillery. This includes a group of air troops and another that arrived with 10 trains with equipment and armor, said the senior Ukrainian official.
Ukrainian military officials estimate that additional forces are on the way, including a subdivision of national guard troops, which could be deployed to hold the territory in the event of an invasion.
Moreover, some units deployed in Crimea have been placed on the highest state of military readiness of the Russian army, the official said, including naval forces based near the Kerch Strait, which separates mainland Russia from Crimea, and at the fleet headquarters. Russian Black Sea in Sevastopol. Troops at other locations have been placed at the second highest level of readiness, the official said.
Satellite images released by Maxar, a space technology company, confirm this week a gathering of forces in Crimea. They show the addition of numerous tent camps in areas close to military equipment, an indication that troops had arrived or were on the road.
The senior Ukrainian official said any incursion could start with localized action and that, if successful, could push the Russians to expand the conflict zone. For now, they are doing everything they can to panic us and panic the West, the official said, calling it a real poker game.
KYIV, Ukraine While the Russian military is not yet capable of carrying out a total invasion of Ukraine, part of its army has reached full combat power and appears to be in the final stages of readiness for military action if the Kremlin orders it, according to an assessment by the top command of the Ukrainian army.
A particular concern for Ukrainian officials is the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia captured from Ukraine in 2014. In the past two weeks, Russia has deployed 10,000 additional troops to the region, including infantry and air force; Worst of all, it has placed some commands at the highest level of readiness, according to the military.
Along with recent efforts to strengthen forces near two Kremlin-backed separatist enclaves in Ukraine, the deployment means Russia may soon be fully prepared to launch military action along the about 800 miles from the eastern and southern borders of Ukraine, according to estimates.
The assessment was described in general terms by a senior Ukrainian military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to uncover confidential intelligence findings. It is broadly consistent with newly released satellite images showing a significant military rise in Crimea in recent weeks.
But it is not just the Crimea. Along most of the border with Ukraine, analysts are seeing what they describe as a practical example of a modern army making final preparations for war. They cited the advent of logistical infrastructure such as hospitals and communications units, elements of electronic warfare intended to disrupt enemy communications, the air force and additional troops to manage equipment that had previously been deployed.
What worries me is how methodically they are going through this, said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at RAND Corporation. It’s from the book. You know what will come next and it shows up.
The Kremlin’s ultimate goal remained unclear, the Ukrainian official said, echoing the determination of US officials who say Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has not yet decided whether to attack.
Russia has about 130,000 troops stationed near the border with Ukraine, US and Ukrainian officials say. The Kremlin has repeatedly said it has no plans to attack, and Mr. Putin, while claiming the United States was trying to push Russia into war, was less harsh in his language in a speech this week, leaving the door open. for future diplomacy.
The Ukrainian military’s assessment of Russian capabilities differs from the one the Pentagon gave last week, which said Moscow had deployed enough troops and military equipment to go beyond a limited incursion into border regions only. But that brought Ukraine’s military leadership closer to the US position.
And painted a horrific picture of Russian combat readiness in Crimea, an area that has attracted less attention; for months the whole focus has been on the gathering of Russian troops in the east and, most recently, its movement of forces in Belarus on the northern border of Ukraine.
At the head of tens of thousands of troops already stationed in Crimea, Russia has recently deployed two tactical groups of additional battalions, battle-ready forces of up to 1,000 troops plus tanks, armor and artillery. This includes a group of air troops and another that arrived with 10 trains with equipment and armor, said the senior Ukrainian official.
Ukrainian military officials estimate that additional forces are on the way, including a subdivision of national guard troops, which could be deployed to hold the territory in the event of an invasion.
Moreover, some units deployed in Crimea have been placed on the highest state of military readiness of the Russian army, the official said, including naval forces based near the Kerch Strait, which separates mainland Russia from Crimea, and at the fleet headquarters. Russian Black Sea in Sevastopol. Troops at other locations have been placed at the second highest level of readiness, the official said.
Satellite images released by Maxar, a space technology company, confirm this week a gathering of forces in Crimea. They show the addition of numerous tent camps in areas close to military equipment, an indication that troops had arrived or were on the road.
The senior Ukrainian official said any incursion could start with localized action and that, if successful, could push the Russians to expand the conflict zone. For now, they are doing everything they can to panic us and panic the West, the official said, calling it a real poker game.
Updated
May 3, 2022, 2:31 pm ET
Crimean troops have been augmented by Russian naval forces stationed in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, a small strategic water body on which Ukrainian and Russian forces have clashed continuously in recent years. Last April, Russia sent its Caspian fleet into the waters around Ukraine for training and left behind several large landing craft.
Ukrainian officials are now monitoring the movements of six Russian landing craft capable of deploying tanks and thousands of troops that Russia has sent from its Baltic and Northern Fleets for training in the Mediterranean at any sign that they may continue in the Black Sea.
It is a large group of attacks, said Ihor Kabanenko, a retired Ukrainian Navy admiral. We do not have sufficient capacity at sea to adequately respond to such a Russian deployment.
Beyond Crimea, military analysts say it may be just weeks before the crescent of troops stationed along Ukraine’s northern, eastern and southern borders is ready for action.
So far, such forces may have looked extremely large, but they lacked the supply lines and other logistical infrastructure needed to fight.
Satellite imagery showing row after row of tanks appearing regularly in newspapers is likely to be intended to send a message and force a conversation, said General Philip M. Breedlove, a former NATO commander-in-chief. .
You have seen photos of the trucks lined up, said General Breedlove. He is not in a tactical or attacking formation. This is a lineup for shows.
Russian troops in the final stages of readiness add to concerns for Ukraine
KYIV, Ukraine While the Russian military is not yet capable of carrying out a total invasion of Ukraine, part of its army has reached full combat power and appears to be in the final stages of readiness for military action if the Kremlin orders it, according to an assessment by the top command...
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