Russia won’t end Ukraine war without push from China, experts say

beijingwalker · Feb 16, 2023

Russia won’t end Ukraine war without push from China, experts say

By Caitlin Doornbos
February 15, 2023

WASHINGTON – Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to move to end his invasion of Ukraine without a push from Beijing, experts told lawmakers Wednesday – but frayed US-China tensions make the chances of that happening soon remote.

As Putin stares down the anniversary of his stalled attack on Feb. 24, there is “not much indication” he wants to reach a settlement with Kyiv anytime soon, Brookings Center senior fellow Fiona Hill told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“[He] feels that he has a lot of support from the rest of the world, including from China,” added Hill, a former National Security Council official and Trump impeachment witness. “Unfortunately, it may very well take countries like China pushing Russia for there to be any break in Putin’s resolve at this particular moment.”

Without China’s influence to the contrary, Hill said she expects the war to stretch on as “the circumstances on the ground are such that Putin really believes that he can push more manpower there.”

“It would have to be, I think, other countries beyond the United States and its Western allies demonstrating to Putin in some fashion — behind the scenes or more directly — that this war is not in their interest and that they want him to move towards the negotiating table,” Hill went on.

“We need to have a diplomatic initiative. We need to get the rest of the international community behind us in support of pushing Russia back.”

US diplomatic relations with China suffered a setback after it flew a spy balloon into American airspace on Jan. 28, prompting Secretary of State Antony Blinken to postpone a planned trip to Beijing. China claims the balloon was a “civilian airship” and protested President Biden’s Feb. 4 decision to shoot it down off South Carolina’s coast after letting it cross the continental US for a week, taking in sensitive military sites along the way.

Still, China’s desire to win over European partners has softened Beijing’s support for Moscow in recent months, despite holding a “very, very much pro-Russia” position at the outset of the war, according to Bonnie Lin, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ China Power Project.

“What we’re seeing is some shift since last year of China’s position in terms of not clearly, not fully taking Russia’s position politically, as China wants to salvage its relationship with particularly our European colleagues,” Lin told senators.

While Beijing needs to curry favor in Europe to promote its Belt and Road initiative aiming to link the continent and East Asia through trade infrastructure, China has less incentive to appease the US, which has led worldwide efforts to support Ukraine.

But as US-China tensions intensify, Lin said, she fears Europe’s strong alliance with the United States could ultimately backfire and prevent China from turning away from Moscow — which is likely to be one of Beijing’s strongest supporters should war break out between the US and China.

“I worry that as China looks at how strong our position is with our allies and partners, China might feel it needs a stronger partner internationally and doesn’t have too many options,” Lin said. “And Russia is, unfortunately, one of the partners that China is keen to keep.”

Making matters worse, recent reports of Chinese companies increasing trade with Russia – including supplying Wagner Group mercenaries with surveillance equipment – may indicate a growing hesitance in Beijing’s pro-Europe shift, Lin said.

“We also know that China’s trade with Russia increased 34% last year, so as we move forward, I think one thing we need to pay attention to is what might push China more in Russia’s direction,” she said.

The warnings were the latest in a string of expert testimony on the Hill calling for closer, yet firmer diplomacy with China. Last week, Melanie Sisson, foreign policy fellow at the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, criticized the postponement of Blinken’s trip as a missed opportunity to have tough conversations with Chinese leaders.

“We need those high-level contacts,” she told the House Armed Services Committee on Feb. 7. “It would have been an opportunity to discuss crisis management, for example, in addition to being able to press the [Chinese Communist Party] on their other such problematic behaviors worldwide.”

While the White House has said it aired its concerns to China “privately” over the spy balloon, the adversaries’ militaries remain in a communications standoff after a call by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to Chinese Minister of National Defense Wei Fenghe following the balloon shoot-down went unanswered last weekend.