Russia, loosing it's military grip to occupy long term, still likely to invade Ukraine

[American Eagle]

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Despite the Odds, Putin May Still Invade Ukraine

• By Alexander Golts
• Apr. 22 2014 19:47
• Last edited 19:47

During his annual live call-in show last week, President Vladimir Putin told viewers that he would not send Russian troops into the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. That is a sure sign he is planning an invasion in the near future. After all, Putin also recently said Russia's Army and Federal Security Service are not involved in any way in eastern Ukraine. Nobody takes that claim seriously, especially when a vigilante "people's governor" in Slovyansk appeals to Putin to deploy Russian peacekeeping forces in the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions.

A quick defeat of the weak Ukrainian Army is guaranteed, but Russia's rapid-deployment force is not strong enough to occupy several Ukrainian regions.



Moscow canceled a planned U.S. surveillance flight over Russian territory last week which would have fallen under the Open Skies Treaty. Such flights are the only legal option available now for obtaining objective information about the military situation at the Russian-Ukrainian border. But on Monday, a Open Skies Treaty intelligence flight was conducted over Russian territory, according to a State Department official.

Western sources estimate that anywhere from 20,000 to 50,000 Russian troops have assembled along the Ukrainian border. NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, recently said Russia had concentrated enough forces to march all the way across Ukraine to the self-proclaimed Transdnestr republic in only five days.

With the Ukrainian Army in complete disarray and the authorities in Kiev unable to formulate clear orders for its law enforcement agencies, few factors stand in the way of Putin following his Crimea game plan to invade eastern and southern Ukraine. According to a April 2 article in Vedomosti, a number of Russian forces could be sent to join possible operations in Ukraine. These include units from the Kantemirov 4th Guards Tank Division and the 2nd Guards Motorized Infantry Division from the Moscow region; the 76th Guards Airborne Assault Division from Pskov; the 31st Guards Airborne Assault Brigade from Ulyanovsk; the 106th Guards Airborne Assault Division from Tula; and the 23rd independent Motorized Infantry Brigade from Samara. In all likelihood, this list also includes Special Forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate. These are practically all of Russia's elite units.

Former Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov's military reforms were primarily aimed at ending the concept of a mass-mobilization army that had prevailed in Russia for almost 150 years. Serdyukov rejected the myth that hundreds of thousands of conscripts could quickly and effectively fill the ranks, opting instead to form a dozen battle-ready groups composed of professional soldiers who can deploy within hours of receiving orders. The world witnessed Russia's new rapid deployment capability during its Crimean special operation.

The question is whether Moscow will manage to follow the same scenario in eastern and southern Ukraine. When the Kremlin began creating its rapid-deployment forces, it had no idea it might need them to capture Ukraine. Once international coalition forces withdraw from Afghanistan, radical Islam threatens to spill over into the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Russia shares an even longer border with Kazakhstan than it does with China, and that border exists more on paper than in fact. Russia is hurriedly forming rapid deployment forces to counter this potential threat. They will probably include four divisions and five brigades of airborne troops, four brigades and eight individual regiments of Marines, units of the Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU, three or four elite army formations and support forces for the Air Force and Navy. Defense Ministry plans indicate that those forces will be composed of volunteer soldiers in the coming years. Of the 50,000 contract soldiers the Russian Army recruits annually, it sends a significant number to staff these forces. The Russian Air Force already has up to 20 battalions composed entirely of contract soldiers, and there is every reason to believe that the 30,000 to 40,000 troops assembled near Ukraine's southern and eastern border in February represent the backbone of Russia's future rapid-deployment forces.

Under the current conditions, those forces are adequate for seizing the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. The question is whether it will be possible for Moscow to hold those territories. After all, it was easy enough to sever Crimea from the rest of Ukraine by simply blocking the highway and railway through the narrow Isthmus of Perekop. But it would not be that easy to do in the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions of Ukraine. Russian forces would have to create a full-fledged border where none had ever existed, severing hundreds of roads linking the captured regions with the rest of Ukraine. It would mean setting up checkpoints on all of the major roads to prevent Ukrainian forces from entering the captured territory. That task would need an occupation force of at least 100,000 professional soldiers and officers — more than Russia has.

Russian strategists developed their rapid-deployment force to fulfill missions that U.S. General Colin Powell defined when he was chairman of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff — that is, to achieve a quick military victory and then immediately withdraw. A quick Russian defeat of the weak Ukrainian Army is all but guaranteed, but Russia's rapid-deployment force is not strong enough to occupy several regions of Ukraine.

But none of this proves that Putin will not order Russian troops to cross the border in the coming days. He has brilliantly confounded analysts several times in the last few weeks. That is not because the analysts were somehow incompetent but because they based their analysis of Putin on rational arguments. The problem is that rational arguments seem to have little place in today's Russia.

Alexander Golts is deputy editor of the online newspaper Yezhednevny Zhurnal.

 

[Hasbara Buster]

Nobody with half a brain believes anything western media and politicians say. Western meda is just for caricature and entertainment.

 

[Hakan]

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Despite the Odds, Putin May Still Invade Ukraine

• By Alexander Golts
• Apr. 22 2014 19:47
• Last edited 19:47

During his annual live call-in show last week, President Vladimir Putin told viewers that he would not send Russian troops into the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. That is a sure sign he is planning an invasion in the near future. After all, Putin also recently said Russia's Army and Federal Security Service are not involved in any way in eastern Ukraine. Nobody takes that claim seriously, especially when a vigilante "people's governor" in Slovyansk appeals to Putin to deploy Russian peacekeeping forces in the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions.

A quick defeat of the weak Ukrainian Army is guaranteed, but Russia's rapid-deployment force is not strong enough to occupy several Ukrainian regions.



Moscow canceled a planned U.S. surveillance flight over Russian territory last week which would have fallen under the Open Skies Treaty. Such flights are the only legal option available now for obtaining objective information about the military situation at the Russian-Ukrainian border. But on Monday, a Open Skies Treaty intelligence flight was conducted over Russian territory, according to a State Department official.

Western sources estimate that anywhere from 20,000 to 50,000 Russian troops have assembled along the Ukrainian border. NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, recently said Russia had concentrated enough forces to march all the way across Ukraine to the self-proclaimed Transdnestr republic in only five days.

With the Ukrainian Army in complete disarray and the authorities in Kiev unable to formulate clear orders for its law enforcement agencies, few factors stand in the way of Putin following his Crimea game plan to invade eastern and southern Ukraine. According to a April 2 article in Vedomosti, a number of Russian forces could be sent to join possible operations in Ukraine. These include units from the Kantemirov 4th Guards Tank Division and the 2nd Guards Motorized Infantry Division from the Moscow region; the 76th Guards Airborne Assault Division from Pskov; the 31st Guards Airborne Assault Brigade from Ulyanovsk; the 106th Guards Airborne Assault Division from Tula; and the 23rd independent Motorized Infantry Brigade from Samara. In all likelihood, this list also includes Special Forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate. These are practically all of Russia's elite units.

Former Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov's military reforms were primarily aimed at ending the concept of a mass-mobilization army that had prevailed in Russia for almost 150 years. Serdyukov rejected the myth that hundreds of thousands of conscripts could quickly and effectively fill the ranks, opting instead to form a dozen battle-ready groups composed of professional soldiers who can deploy within hours of receiving orders. The world witnessed Russia's new rapid deployment capability during its Crimean special operation.

The question is whether Moscow will manage to follow the same scenario in eastern and southern Ukraine. When the Kremlin began creating its rapid-deployment forces, it had no idea it might need them to capture Ukraine. Once international coalition forces withdraw from Afghanistan, radical Islam threatens to spill over into the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Russia shares an even longer border with Kazakhstan than it does with China, and that border exists more on paper than in fact. Russia is hurriedly forming rapid deployment forces to counter this potential threat. They will probably include four divisions and five brigades of airborne troops, four brigades and eight individual regiments of Marines, units of the Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU, three or four elite army formations and support forces for the Air Force and Navy. Defense Ministry plans indicate that those forces will be composed of volunteer soldiers in the coming years. Of the 50,000 contract soldiers the Russian Army recruits annually, it sends a significant number to staff these forces. The Russian Air Force already has up to 20 battalions composed entirely of contract soldiers, and there is every reason to believe that the 30,000 to 40,000 troops assembled near Ukraine's southern and eastern border in February represent the backbone of Russia's future rapid-deployment forces.

Under the current conditions, those forces are adequate for seizing the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. The question is whether it will be possible for Moscow to hold those territories. After all, it was easy enough to sever Crimea from the rest of Ukraine by simply blocking the highway and railway through the narrow Isthmus of Perekop. But it would not be that easy to do in the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions of Ukraine. Russian forces would have to create a full-fledged border where none had ever existed, severing hundreds of roads linking the captured regions with the rest of Ukraine. It would mean setting up checkpoints on all of the major roads to prevent Ukrainian forces from entering the captured territory. That task would need an occupation force of at least 100,000 professional soldiers and officers — more than Russia has.

Russian strategists developed their rapid-deployment force to fulfill missions that U.S. General Colin Powell defined when he was chairman of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff — that is, to achieve a quick military victory and then immediately withdraw. A quick Russian defeat of the weak Ukrainian Army is all but guaranteed, but Russia's rapid-deployment force is not strong enough to occupy several regions of Ukraine.

But none of this proves that Putin will not order Russian troops to cross the border in the coming days. He has brilliantly confounded analysts several times in the last few weeks. That is not because the analysts were somehow incompetent but because they based their analysis of Putin on rational arguments. The problem is that rational arguments seem to have little place in today's Russia.

Alexander Golts is deputy editor of the online newspaper Yezhednevny Zhurnal.

I believe that Russia would use its military to capture parts of Ukraine then use the militias it controls to occupy it. These militias would receive support from the Russian Military. It could be something similar to NATO's strategy in Afghanistan.

 

[Superboy]

IMO Putin is determined to take eastern regions like Donbas, Kharkiv, and southern regions like Odessa, Kherson, where not only pro Russia sentiment is strong, but the people there do not want to be ruled by Kiev. After all is said and done, Ukraine could be left with a territory about as big as Romania, Bulgaria.

 

[American Eagle]

Nobody with half a brain believes anything western media and politicians say. Western meda is just for caricature and entertainment.

There are young folks, some of whom are "wise guys" but most here are seeking knowledge to learn from the school house of the Pakistan Defense Forum, which in my estimation has broadly speaking some of the best educated leaders, officers, and privatge sector business minds in their respective countries.

This said, if you are getting no knowledge, by in part not asking questions instead of making wise cracks, it is your loss.

Maybe your typing and second or third language skills are bettered, as we don't want your participation, however irregular, to totally be a waste for you.

We, too, were young once and as often as not "knew it all" even before the questions were asked. Back then we were "the wise acres" so what you are going through is actually pretty normal. But grow up a little know and really learn by asking logical questions and you can find a way to developing a more open mind. Good luck.

 

[Hasbara Buster]

Doomed US targets China, Russia

US President Barack Obama

By Finian Cunningham


US President Barack Obama kicks off his East Asia tour this week with a threat of military aggression towards China at the same time that vice president Joe Biden was stepping up similar provocations to Russia over the Ukraine crisis.

That is because the so-called American "pivot to Asia" is intimately connected with the crisis in Ukraine and the increasing tensions between Washington and Moscow. Both cases are the result of US imperialist aggression aimed at postponing the collapse of American global hegemony. Although in the laughable way that the Western corporate media invert reality Washington's vice is turned into a virtue.

The Wall Street Journal tells us: "The US [Asian] pivot has repeatedly been thrown off-balance as Washington turned its attention to Syria, Iran, Middle East peace talks and now Ukraine."

This is a version of America being the noble "global policeman". Notice the way the WSJ implies that Washington is a benevolent force in several conflicts around the world, when in reality it is Washington that is actually the very source of conflict in every scenario cited. This is a textbook example of the Western "news media" - more accurately "brainwashing propaganda system" - at work.

The US is inflaming insecurity in Asia between China and its neighbors; it is Washington that is the chief sponsor of the covert terrorist war in Syria; Iran continues to be subjected to criminal US-led sanctions on the basis of trumped-up nuclear claims; the Middle East "peace process" in Palestine is deadlocked because the US supports the genocidal Israeli regime; and on Ukraine it was Washington's illegal coup d'état in Kiev that has pushed that country to the brink of civil war and may even ignite a global war with Russia.

When Obama touched down in Japan this week at the start of his tour of four Asian countries, including South Korea, Philippines and Malaysia, it was tellingly significant that upon his arrival in Tokyo a keynote remark was that America backs Japan in its territorial dispute with China. Obama said that military support is part of the so-called "defense pact" with between the US and Japan.

How the Americans can claim to be "defending" a country that it dropped atomic bombs on defies any intelligent reasoning. That's the power of brainwashing.

Nevertheless, Obama's blatant meddling in the dispute between China and Japan was obviously a calculated provocation that will lead to more regional tensions, which in turn gives Washington further pretext to maintain tens of thousands of its troops, missiles, warplanes and warships there.

What Washington is saying to China is: your territorial claims against Japan are null and void and if you attempt to use military force in support of your grievances then the US reserves the right to launch a "defensive" war.

Never mind that the long running row between Tokyo and Beijing over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is very arguably in favor of China's claims. The islands are proximate to China's southeast coast and hundreds of kilometers away from Japan. Japan continues to occupy the islands stemming from its imperialist war of aggression against China nearly seven decades ago. Also earlier this month saw the first expansion of Japanese military installations in Okinawa in more than 40 years, which signals an end to Japan's postwar pacification vows.

Considering the appalling destruction that Japan wrought on China and other Asian neighbors during its imperialist expansion, within living memory, any such moves by Tokyo are bound to cause grave alarm. Yet, Washington barges in with hobnail boots to trample all over China's sensitivities. What's more, Washington and the supine Western media invert reality again by portraying China as behaving provocatively in the region.

America's Asian pivot, which Obama launched back in 2011, is all about stoking military aggression with China under the guise of offering defense to neighboring countries - in the same way that a gangster boss sets up a protection racket.

The real purpose is to stymie China's strategic economic importance and to thwart the inexorable shift in the global economy away from Washington's hegemony. That shift spells doom for the bankrupt US dollar and its hollowed-out capitalist system.

While the conceited Western media make out that Obama is touring Asia at "an unfortunate" time of "crisis management" over Ukraine, the reality is that the two issues are deeply connected.

As former World Bank economist Peter Koenig points out it is Russia and China that are the key players in shaping the new Eurasian axis of the global economy. A significant portent of the future was given last month, when on a state visit to Germany Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled plans to re-open the famous Silk Road - one of the world's oldest and most strategic trade routes.

Says Koenig: "China will re-open the old Silk Road as a new trading route linking Germany, Russia and China, allowing to connect and develop new markets along the road, especially in Central Asia, where this new project will bring economic and political stability."

That development will also be good news for Iran, a preview of which was the major oil deal reported earlier this month between Moscow and Tehran - much to the ire of Washington.

The tectonic movement in the global economy towards a Eurasian axis has been under way for several years and is integrated with the emergence of the so-called BRICS nations, which also include India and Brazil. This paradigm shift is also integrated with these nations extricating themselves from using the American dollar as international reserve currency.

As Koenig notes Russia dropped "a bombshell" this month when it announced that it was going to conduct all its future international trade in the Russian ruble or in other national currencies. That decision by Moscow - which the Western media avoided to report - was prompted by Washington's provocative sanctions towards Russia over the Ukraine crisis. Russia's dropping of the dollar will hasten the dynamic against the US currency.

This why China and Russia are now being targeted - almost in desperation by Washington. Their rise portends the fall of America's bankrupt empire.

While Western media launder hackneyed propaganda about Washington's selfless role as global policeman, the real story is one of a dying American hegemonic thug trying to postpone its demise - by striking out at both China and Russia even if that means igniting a catastrophic global war.

PressTV - Doomed US targets China, Russia​