nightcrawler
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DefenceDog: Russia and China: The pivot of Central Asia
Abstracts:
*] In the early and mid-90's Central Asia was virtually excluded from the scope of Russian priorities. Moscow has also distanced itself from the then "the Afghan problem, feeding the illusory hopes of becoming" an integral part of the West.
*] At the same time, Moscow is trying to conduct a strategic dialogue with Washington on Central Asian issues. Most likely, this approach will lead to the fact that Russia and the region as a whole will be forced to follow in the footsteps of the West, who has his eye on the development prospects of Eurasia.
*] Rich mineral resources in the region sooner or later will be subject to even more acute than it is today, competition stronger powers and economic blocs. And not the fact that Russia can win this competition.
*] Russia has clearly underestimated the strategic importance of Central Asia. This is largely due to the weakness of intelligence and expertise, as well as rooted in the Russian views on the Central Asian region as a certain "economic burden", to take that "on balance" is inappropriate.
*] Future relations between Russia and Central Asia depends largely on Moscow. Within the former Soviet Union, only Russia, given the scale of its economic and geopolitical potential, capable of taking on the role of locomotive of an integrated economic development and guaranteeing the security of Central Asian countries (as well as other post-Soviet states).Securing the Russian Federation on the territory and long-term stability of the region are possible, provided that in the XXI century, Russia will play a key role in this round, including scientific and technical progress, that is the role she has played since the second half of the XIX century until the death of the Soviet Union.
*] Further strengthening of the economic presence of China in Central Asia will likely continue to walk due to an increase in the supply of finished products, building design and investment operations, primarily in the commodity sectors, for the laying of pipelines and transport projects (for the export of minerals), and as the appropriate financial, political and military-technical support of these efforts. That is why today it is extremely difficult to predict, what will the growth of China's presence in the region
*] Moreover, the growing Chinese and the recovering Russian economy in the future will be even more desperate need for resources, primarily in the energy and non-ferrous metals, which is particularly rich Central Asia. In this regard, we can not exclude the possibility of rivalry between Moscow and Beijing for influence in this geopolitical space. The result could be jeopardized regional stability, which in turn will also negatively affect the security of both Russia and China.
*] China will have to build a purely selfish scheme of relations with Russia, and Central Asia, guided only by their own interests. This seems quite natural, since China is unlikely to take into account certain "strategic and long-term interests" of Russia and Central Asian republics, if they do not think about them
*] Choice in Russia is actually not, if she really wants to keep within its previous borders, to stay integrity and stability of the state, to find stability and sustained long-term development, including in its relations with the West.
writer http://vpk-news.ru/authors/1230
Abstracts:
*] In the early and mid-90's Central Asia was virtually excluded from the scope of Russian priorities. Moscow has also distanced itself from the then "the Afghan problem, feeding the illusory hopes of becoming" an integral part of the West.
*] At the same time, Moscow is trying to conduct a strategic dialogue with Washington on Central Asian issues. Most likely, this approach will lead to the fact that Russia and the region as a whole will be forced to follow in the footsteps of the West, who has his eye on the development prospects of Eurasia.
*] Rich mineral resources in the region sooner or later will be subject to even more acute than it is today, competition stronger powers and economic blocs. And not the fact that Russia can win this competition.
*] Russia has clearly underestimated the strategic importance of Central Asia. This is largely due to the weakness of intelligence and expertise, as well as rooted in the Russian views on the Central Asian region as a certain "economic burden", to take that "on balance" is inappropriate.
*] Future relations between Russia and Central Asia depends largely on Moscow. Within the former Soviet Union, only Russia, given the scale of its economic and geopolitical potential, capable of taking on the role of locomotive of an integrated economic development and guaranteeing the security of Central Asian countries (as well as other post-Soviet states).Securing the Russian Federation on the territory and long-term stability of the region are possible, provided that in the XXI century, Russia will play a key role in this round, including scientific and technical progress, that is the role she has played since the second half of the XIX century until the death of the Soviet Union.
*] Further strengthening of the economic presence of China in Central Asia will likely continue to walk due to an increase in the supply of finished products, building design and investment operations, primarily in the commodity sectors, for the laying of pipelines and transport projects (for the export of minerals), and as the appropriate financial, political and military-technical support of these efforts. That is why today it is extremely difficult to predict, what will the growth of China's presence in the region
*] Moreover, the growing Chinese and the recovering Russian economy in the future will be even more desperate need for resources, primarily in the energy and non-ferrous metals, which is particularly rich Central Asia. In this regard, we can not exclude the possibility of rivalry between Moscow and Beijing for influence in this geopolitical space. The result could be jeopardized regional stability, which in turn will also negatively affect the security of both Russia and China.
*] China will have to build a purely selfish scheme of relations with Russia, and Central Asia, guided only by their own interests. This seems quite natural, since China is unlikely to take into account certain "strategic and long-term interests" of Russia and Central Asian republics, if they do not think about them
*] Choice in Russia is actually not, if she really wants to keep within its previous borders, to stay integrity and stability of the state, to find stability and sustained long-term development, including in its relations with the West.
writer http://vpk-news.ru/authors/1230
