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IN PRINCIPLE
MINHAZ MERCHANT
As this adolescent century unfolds, four competing civilizations will shape it. This new contest of civilizations could determine the balance of power between nations and regions for generations.
The longer you can look back, Winston Churchill said, the farther you can look forward. Though in decline, western civilization will continue to influence global policy and culture. The rise of China will establish a powerful Confucian counter-civilizational force with strong roots in history and a sphere of influence arching from the Pacific to Africa. The third major civilization, again deeply rooted in history, will be driven by Indias growing hard and soft power. Strong demographics, a far-flung diaspora and the worlds third largest economy will impel India to play a global role unmatched since the golden thousand years between the fifth century BC and fifth century AD when the subcontinent produced two prophets (Buddha and Mahavir Jain), two emperor-statesmen (Ashoka and Chandragupta) and two epics (the Ramayana and Mahabharata).
The fourth civilizational strain set to compete for space and salience this century is Islam. Though spiritually tethered to Mecca, Islam has not had a centre of gravity since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1917 and the abolition of the Caliphate by Turkey in 1924. The west is propelled by American and European values, China by its ethnic homogeneity, India by its ancient religions and philosophy. Each has a clear geographical anchor. But Islamic civilization, whose worldwide influence is strong and growing, is as much at home in East Asia (Indonesia and Malaysia) as it is in the Arab Middle East, non-Arab Turkey and Iran, the Central Asian republics (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan), Eastern Europe (Bosnia, Albania), North Africa (Morocco, Libya) and, of course, the Indian subcontinent. Islam transcends nations both a strength and weakness.
How will the four competing civilizations engage each other as the 21st century unravels? Consider first their relative economic power.
According to the IMF, Asia (led by China, Japan and India) will account for 34% of global GDP by 2015. By 2030, Asias GDP will exceed the combined GDP of the United States and Europe. This is not a shift in the balance of global economic power but a restoration of the status quo. Till 1775, China and India accounted for 50% of global economic output. The colonization of Asia and Africa, the Atlantic slave trade and the invasive settlements of the Americas and Australasia wrenched power from east to west. That process is now being reversed by strong economic growth in the east and relative stagnation in the west.
Each of the four civilizations that will shape this century has threads going back millennia. Ancient Greece and Rome are the precursors of the US-led west. Chinese and Indian civilizations date back to 3,500 BC. Islam, of course, is the youngest of the four civilizational strains but, geographically, it too has predecessors in antiquity: Mesopotamia (todays Iraq), Persia and Egypt.
While Christian Europe clashed repeatedly with Islam from the eighth century onwards, the west began its slow ascent in the 13th century. Education was the key. Oxford, Cambridge, the Sorbonne and Heidelberg the great universities of the west were all founded around this time as seats of ecclesiastical learning. Soon, they evolved into centres of science, arts and the classics. The scientific and industrial revolution that followed the Renaissance in Europe enabled the west to lay the foundation for modern nationstates.
India and China, meanwhile, lay dormanttwo ancient and weary civilizations in decay. Each was reshaped by contact with the expansionary west and Islam. But their approach to outsiders was markedly different. Chinas martial dynasties, confident in their middle kingdom self-image of being the centre of the world, treated upstart 17h century British and Dutch emissaries with disdain and remained largely free of western influence (except in coastal Hong Kong). India, fragmented and directionless, was plucked, piece by piece, first by Islam and then by the British Empire. Like a sponge, it absorbed them all and remade them in its own mould.
Where do Russia and Latin America fit in as world power moves from west to east? Latin America will remain in the wests sphere of influence. So will Russia, though competitive pressures over the Caucasus will be a continuing source of intra-Europe friction. Russias sharply declining birth rate and population will weaken it. Most of western Europe too will be impaled by ageing and falling populations.
Throughout history, civilizations have clashed over territory and faith. The 21st century has moderated some of those primal ambitions. But it is in the nature of man to compete for power. The west is weakening, but will remain a global technological and cultural force for much of this century. China and India will be restored to their historical pre-eminence. Islam will have to change from within to compete successfully with other civilizations. It will have to modernize and adapt whether in Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Somalia.
The writer is the chairman of a media group
ToI feed dated 26th Dec 2010.
Rise of the east in a new clash of civilizations
MINHAZ MERCHANT
As this adolescent century unfolds, four competing civilizations will shape it. This new contest of civilizations could determine the balance of power between nations and regions for generations.
The longer you can look back, Winston Churchill said, the farther you can look forward. Though in decline, western civilization will continue to influence global policy and culture. The rise of China will establish a powerful Confucian counter-civilizational force with strong roots in history and a sphere of influence arching from the Pacific to Africa. The third major civilization, again deeply rooted in history, will be driven by Indias growing hard and soft power. Strong demographics, a far-flung diaspora and the worlds third largest economy will impel India to play a global role unmatched since the golden thousand years between the fifth century BC and fifth century AD when the subcontinent produced two prophets (Buddha and Mahavir Jain), two emperor-statesmen (Ashoka and Chandragupta) and two epics (the Ramayana and Mahabharata).
The fourth civilizational strain set to compete for space and salience this century is Islam. Though spiritually tethered to Mecca, Islam has not had a centre of gravity since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1917 and the abolition of the Caliphate by Turkey in 1924. The west is propelled by American and European values, China by its ethnic homogeneity, India by its ancient religions and philosophy. Each has a clear geographical anchor. But Islamic civilization, whose worldwide influence is strong and growing, is as much at home in East Asia (Indonesia and Malaysia) as it is in the Arab Middle East, non-Arab Turkey and Iran, the Central Asian republics (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan), Eastern Europe (Bosnia, Albania), North Africa (Morocco, Libya) and, of course, the Indian subcontinent. Islam transcends nations both a strength and weakness.
How will the four competing civilizations engage each other as the 21st century unravels? Consider first their relative economic power.
According to the IMF, Asia (led by China, Japan and India) will account for 34% of global GDP by 2015. By 2030, Asias GDP will exceed the combined GDP of the United States and Europe. This is not a shift in the balance of global economic power but a restoration of the status quo. Till 1775, China and India accounted for 50% of global economic output. The colonization of Asia and Africa, the Atlantic slave trade and the invasive settlements of the Americas and Australasia wrenched power from east to west. That process is now being reversed by strong economic growth in the east and relative stagnation in the west.
Each of the four civilizations that will shape this century has threads going back millennia. Ancient Greece and Rome are the precursors of the US-led west. Chinese and Indian civilizations date back to 3,500 BC. Islam, of course, is the youngest of the four civilizational strains but, geographically, it too has predecessors in antiquity: Mesopotamia (todays Iraq), Persia and Egypt.
While Christian Europe clashed repeatedly with Islam from the eighth century onwards, the west began its slow ascent in the 13th century. Education was the key. Oxford, Cambridge, the Sorbonne and Heidelberg the great universities of the west were all founded around this time as seats of ecclesiastical learning. Soon, they evolved into centres of science, arts and the classics. The scientific and industrial revolution that followed the Renaissance in Europe enabled the west to lay the foundation for modern nationstates.
India and China, meanwhile, lay dormanttwo ancient and weary civilizations in decay. Each was reshaped by contact with the expansionary west and Islam. But their approach to outsiders was markedly different. Chinas martial dynasties, confident in their middle kingdom self-image of being the centre of the world, treated upstart 17h century British and Dutch emissaries with disdain and remained largely free of western influence (except in coastal Hong Kong). India, fragmented and directionless, was plucked, piece by piece, first by Islam and then by the British Empire. Like a sponge, it absorbed them all and remade them in its own mould.
Where do Russia and Latin America fit in as world power moves from west to east? Latin America will remain in the wests sphere of influence. So will Russia, though competitive pressures over the Caucasus will be a continuing source of intra-Europe friction. Russias sharply declining birth rate and population will weaken it. Most of western Europe too will be impaled by ageing and falling populations.
Throughout history, civilizations have clashed over territory and faith. The 21st century has moderated some of those primal ambitions. But it is in the nature of man to compete for power. The west is weakening, but will remain a global technological and cultural force for much of this century. China and India will be restored to their historical pre-eminence. Islam will have to change from within to compete successfully with other civilizations. It will have to modernize and adapt whether in Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Somalia.
As a young nation but an ancient civilization, India stands out for its diversity and democracy, the two markers that will determine which civilizational strand emerges strongest in an era of contesting but collaborative global values.
The writer is the chairman of a media group
ToI feed dated 26th Dec 2010.
