Rise of Kurdistan and its effects on India and Pakistan?

[Yaduveer]

Iraqi Kurds became defacto state after retreat of iraqi forces from Mosul , Kirkuk area .President of Kurdistan Regional Government Barzani is pushing for referendum for independence.International observers feel that its just matter of time.ISIS is on course of retreat and defeat in cities of Raqqa,Falluja and Mosul.

Some facts
1.Iraqi Kurdistan has the world's 9th largest oil reserve even after leaving Kirkuk area.It would be immence helpful for energy starved India and Pakistan.

2.Kurdistan region is shared by Turkey(14 million kurd),Syria(2million),Iraq and Iran (6 mi each).

3. Kurdistani movement has been largely on liberal and secular lines.

4. Israel is totally supporting KRG gov for independence and it do not care for Turkey Iraq Iran or Syria.Israel buys 75% oil of KRG.

How would India and Pakistan react to rise of Kurdistan as an independent state ?

 

[bsruzm]

You are so ignorant on matter. If you are talking about Barzani and his call for independeence then I'd ask how would Iran react?

 

[Jamwal's]

India has always stand for the sovereignty of Syria and especially Iraq.

This was made clear in a Joint Joint Statement of Modi and Putin when PM visited Russia in 2015.

But Kurds should have an autonomous region in their respective countries.

 

[Dr Shaheryar]

Country within a country. Can any country permit that?

 

[Yaduveer]

India has always stand for the sovereignty of Syria and especially Iraq.

This was made clear in a Joint Statement of Modi and Putin when PM visited Russia in 2015.

But Kurds should have an autonomous region in their respective countries.

My analysis would go as follows :

This Iraq is not old Iraq anymore.
Syria is too small.
Turkey do not matter especially under wanna be leader of Sunni Muslims Erdogan.

Problem for India supporting Kurdistan movement is Kurd region in Iran which is a strategic partner of India.
Secondly India has domestic Kashmir problem.

But economic potential of India Kurd relation is HUGE.

 

[Dr Shaheryar]

Turkey should be supported in the matter of KURD'S. Kashmir is a separate issue do not mix state's conflict with country's own issue.

 

[Yaduveer]

India and Pakistan both opening Consulate general in Kurdish Iraq.
They are preparing for what is inevitable.
http://dfr.gov.krd/a/d.aspx?l=12&a=44267
http://www.rs.iq/iraq_news/view/2880

Thats what am saying... Turkey and we face the same problem of separatist terrorism. I would like both countries to work together to root the problem out.. But their President is saying one thing on our issue and saying the opposite on their issues though its the very same disease affecting both countries... Heck we have never supported Kurds in our history anywhere.. Saddam was our ally too when he was chemical bombing the Kurds..

But if countries don't reciprocate our support then they too don't deserve it... Thats all am saying..

Geopolitics is for future.Past do not matter that much. Look how USA is improving relation with Vietnam.

 

[1971+]

My analysis would go as follows :

This Iraq is not old Iraq anymore.
Syria is too small.
Turkey do not matter especially under wanna be leader of Sunni Muslims Erdogan.

Problem for India supporting Kurdistan movement is Kurd region in Iran which is a strategic partner of India.
Secondly India has domestic Kashmir problem.

But economic potential of India Kurd relation is HUGE.

You will trade with them via ?? Look at the map. Ain't they be land locked like Afghanistan ? Iran won't allow any trade threw it at cost of it's own trade.

 

[Hellfire]

What a ridiculous topic actually!!! The territorial integrity of two major powers will be affected by Kurds declaring themselevs a separate nation - Iran and Turkey. Kurds may end up uniting these two over it!!

There is a slight difference though - the Turks have a bigger stake than Iran as proportional effects are higher. It is only relative difference here.

So, IMO:

1. The Kurds will not be allowed an independent homeland as it will further affect the boundaries as existing in the middle east and the stakes are too high for all concerned within and outside the region.

2. The effect of an improbable Kurdistan will result in neither India nor Pakistan recognising it, as also there shall be no bearing on the Kashmir issue.

3. Recognition by India is likely to severely affect the position of India with respect to Kashmir Valley (alone) and by Pakistan will create problem for it in western sector as the Duran Line is also an unilateral line drawwn dividing the Pashtun people ....

4. The Kashmir issue is going to be shortly a non issue as the sensible and long pending action of Pakistan to close its border with Afghanistan for increasing its own security, is going to see an increase in insurrection along Khyber-Paktunkhwa and Balochistan region along lines of Kurdistan demands ... something which all concerned would like to fuel further. My analysis may be wrong, but the de-stabilization of Pakistani provinces as aforementioned are not far off. Will tag @notorious_eagle for his comments too.

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

You are so ignorant on matter. If you are talking about Barzani and his call for independeence then I'd ask how would Iran react?

Bro, is it true that US is also arming kurdish terrorists? I hope, Pakistan is collaborating with you guys on these terrorists and any other anti Turkish organization.

We take Turkish interests/concerns very seriously over here.

 

[Yaduveer]

You will trade with them via ?? Look at the map. Ain't they be land locked like Afghanistan ? Iran won't allow any trade threw it at cost of it's own trade.

Go through them.
http://rudaw.net/english/business/10032016
http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Iran-And-Turkey-Court-The-KRG-For-Oil.html

 

[Mucahit]

They may get a state in lraq but that's really it.

They don't have a large population in Syria and many places they invaded in Syria are inhabited by Arabs & Turkmens...

lran and Turkey isn't even a question.

Now i don't have much knowledge about the kurds in lran but in Turkey it's pretty much impossible since millions of kurds live in Western parts of Turkey with Turks, it's very mixed and not separated like other countries.

Bro, is it true that US is also arming kurdish terrorists? I hope, Pakistan is collaborating with you guys on these terrorists and any other anti Turkish organization.

We take Turkish interests/concerns very seriously over here.

i don't think it was deliberately, they probably got the weapons from either Peshmerga or ypg terrorists.

 

[notorious_eagle]

What a ridiculous topic actually!!! The territorial integrity of two major powers will be affected by Kurds declaring themselevs a separate nation - Iran and Turkey. Kurds may end up uniting these two over it!!

There is a slight difference though - the Turks have a bigger stake than Iran as proportional effects are higher. It is only relative difference here.

So, IMO:

1. The Kurds will not be allowed an independent homeland as it will further affect the boundaries as existing in the middle east and the stakes are too high for all concerned within and outside the region.

2. The effect of an improbable Kurdistan will result in neither India nor Pakistan recognising it, as also there shall be no bearing on the Kashmir issue.

3. Recognition by India is likely to severely affect the position of India with respect to Kashmir Valley (alone) and by Pakistan will create problem for it in western sector as the Duran Line is also an unilateral line drawwn dividing the Pashtun people ....

4. The Kashmir issue is going to be shortly a non issue as the sensible and long pending action of Pakistan to close its border with Afghanistan for increasing its own security, is going to see an increase in insurrection along Khyber-Paktunkhwa and Balochistan region along lines of Kurdistan demands ... something which all concerned would like to fuel further. My analysis may be wrong, but the de-stabilization of Pakistani provinces as aforementioned are not far off. Will tag @notorious_eagle for his comments too.

Very eloquently put

I don't believe there is going to be an independent Kurdistan anytime soon. The major powers operating in the Midlde East have rejected the notion of an independent Kurdistan outright. Kurds themselves are divided on this issue and are lacking the unity required to bring forth a united front. Let's face it, without the approval of the Big 5, there is no Kurdistan.

As far as Pakistan/India are concerned, Pakistan has very little stake and say in this matter. India on the other hand is still a miniscule in this conflict, and is wisely staying out. If history is something to go by with, India has been a solid supporter of Baghdad and will oppose any changes to the territorial integrity of Iraq.

 

[Faravahar]

Just because the kurds have some land now in war torn Iraq and Syria it does not mean a "kurdistan" is coming. The first thing you need to know about a "Kurdistan" is that it will not last long. It will be a land locked nation whom the surrounding states will despise and will suffocate it.

Futhermore, there is big variation between Kurds in different states. Even the PJAK terrorist group in Iran never asked for independence, but rather claimed they want "more rights" for Iranian kurds. Don't forget kurds are an Iranic people, but that does not mean Iran will allow kurds to get independence in Turkey, Syria and Iraq. That wont happen.

 

[livingdead]

Very eloquently put

I don't believe there is going to be an independent Kurdistan anytime soon. The major powers operating in the Midlde East have rejected the notion of an independent Kurdistan outright. Kurds themselves are divided on this issue and are lacking the unity required to bring forth a united front. Let's face it, without the approval of the Big 5, there is no Kurdistan.

As far as Pakistan/India are concerned, Pakistan has very little stake and say in this matter. India on the other hand is still a miniscule in this conflict, and is wisely staying out. If history is something to go by with, India has been a solid supporter of Baghdad and will oppose any changes to the territorial integrity of Iraq.

India supported Saddam's regime.. not the subsequent one.. I think India should keep the option open and send feelers to kurds that we will recognize them when time comes. I doubt iraqis realistically think they will rule that area again.