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Independence Day
Najam Sethi
TFT Issue: 08 Aug 2014
In the life of every nation-state, Independence Day is celebrated with collective joy and thanksgiving. It is the one day in the life of every country when internal squabbles are buried and the nation rises as one to face the world. Unfortunately, however, this tradition is on the anvil in Pakistan. Imran Khan is trying to turn August 14, 2014, into a day of political division, upheaval and violence. Dr Tahirul Qadri, the Canadian-Pakistani televangelist-cleric, is only marginally less mindful of the sanctity of August 14, having announced that his “revolution” will engulf the political system after August 14 but before August 30.
Both gentlemen are promising nothing less than a “revolution”. The problem is that for Imran Khan a “revolution” only means the replacement of Nawaz Sharif’s regime by Imran Khan’s regime after another round of elections under the constitution while for Dr Qadri it means the replacement of the current constitutional system with an undefined one led by Dr Sahib himself. If this were merely a sign of politics as usual, we would not be worried. But the rhetoric seems ominously like an invitation to a beheading of democracy by the military. That, too, might not be totally unacceptable if the track record of the military in politics could provide a fig leaf of justification. But the three military interventions since independence are primarily responsible for the strategic drift, violent sectarian strife and political turmoil in which Pakistan finds itself today.
It is also unfortunate that Nawaz Sharif, as prime minister, has not been able to display the wisdom and vision expected and is partly responsible for the mess in which we find ourselves. If the military had not been so unnecessarily estranged for a couple of provocative reasons, neither Imran nor Dr Qadri would have dared to stake their political fortunes and adventures on a suitable intervention by it.
No matter. Albeit belated, Mr Sharif is now using his political capital with allies and opposition alike to persuade Imran Khan and Dr Qadri to hold their horses. A national consensus is already evident against any attempt to provoke military intervention. Former president Asif Zardari (PPP), Maulana Fazal ur Rahman (JUI), Asfandyar Wali (ANP), Sirajul Haq (Jamaat i Islami), Altaf Hussain (MQM) and other political luminaries have been roped in to protect the sanctity of August 14. It appears that the government has adopted a carrot and stick policy to deal with the situation. The carrot of detailed scrutiny of a number of electoral constituencies is being offered to Imran Khan and the stick is being brandished before Dr Qadri. Both have unprecedentedly exhorted their militant followers to assault the police if any attempt is made by the government to thwart them. Consequently, the police has filed FIRs and moved in force to surround Dr Qadri’s residence.
Dr Qadri says he will announce his plans on August 10. He is unsure of whether to join Imran Khan – and risk losing the leadership of the “revolutionary” movement to him – or to go it alone and be isolated. Similarly, Imran Khan is aware of the serious fissures in his party and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government over his announced plans. No one wants to resign from the provincial or national parliament and be left stranded. Indeed, the public utterances of party stalwarts signal confusion and disarray. The PTI’s parliamentary spokesmen assure everyone that the PTI abhors violence and will abide by peaceful constitutional norms in making demands while Imran Khan thunders outside parliament about overthrowing the government via street mob power. Deep down, both avengers know that if the military were to intervene because of any anarchy engineered by them, they would not necessarily be its direct beneficiaries.
Most pundits are agreed on one point: the military wants to cut Nawaz Sharif down to size, like it did Asif Zardari, and is principally averse to any direct take-over. It has bluntly signaled its displeasure of certain government policies and is pulling strings to activate disgruntled elements in the opposition and media to help it achieve its objective. It is also now clear that Mr Sharif has finally woken up to the pitfalls of his earlier defiance of the military and may be amenable to a change of course on certain contentious issues.
If this is so, we should see some last minute “adjustments” by all the key players – PMLN government, GHQ and PTI – next week. This could take the form of an “agreement” between the government and PTI over electoral issues and a firm “commitment” to General Raheel Sharif by Nawaz Sharif to stay clear of military-designated areas of policy – which is reflected in a “postponement” of the “tsunami-march revolution”. This may be supplemented by a short stint in the cooler for Dr Qadri and renewed self-exile in Canada because he has unfortunately left no fallback position for himself.
Of course, all these calculations could amount to zero if any of the key players is unreasonably unbending. Then all bets will be off.
- See more at: Independence Day ‹ The Friday Times
A bubble called Pakistan
Barely 14 months after convincingly winning a general election, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government is being asked to resign amid threats of street protests. Cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan and Canada-based Sunni cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri plan separate marches on Islamabad on August 14, Pakistan’s Independence Day. Several politicians and parties known for their close ties to Pakistan’s deep state, the ISI, have announced support for the anti-Sharif protests
Sharif will most likely ride out this first wave of attack. He retains an absolute majority in parliament and, by most accounts, there is no appetite in the country for a military coup. But the protests will weaken Sharif and sap the elected government’s energies, diminishing its effectiveness. That is exactly how the wings of the previous civilian government led by Asif Zardari and Yusuf Raza Gilani were clipped. Then, the judiciary played a critical role in tying up elected leaders in knots though, this time, the judges have yet to get involved.
The military has ruled Pakistan directly for more than half its existence as an independent country. When it can’t govern directly, the military and its intelligence services still want to exert influence, especially over foreign and national security policies. At any given time, there are enough civilian politicians, media personalities or judges willing to do the military’s bidding for this manipulation to persist.
Currently, the military wants Sharif to curb his enthusiasm about normalising ties with India and turn away from Pakistan’s past policy of meddling in Afghanistan’s politics. It also wants an end to the treason trial of former dictator General Pervez Musharraf.
In the Pakistani military’s worldview, coup-making should not result in a trial for treason. The armed forces represent patriotism, even if their errors result in the loss of half the country’s territory, as happened in 1971 with the loss of Bangladesh. Civilians, on the other hand, can be judged traitors merely for advocating a different path forward for the country.
Ironically, the latest effort to destabilise an elected civilian government is taking place at a time when the Pakistan army is ostensibly waging war against jihadi terrorists in North Waziristan. The chief of army staff, General Raheel Sharif, has promised that the war will continue until all terrorist groups are eliminated. Usually, war unites political rivals, but there has been no effort by the military and its civilian political allies, or for that matter by Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), to overcome polarisation.
The current political chaos reminds me of a conversation I had with the then US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Marc Grossman, soon after the covert American operation that resulted in discovering and killing Osama bin Laden in the Pakistani garrison town of Abbottabad.
Grossman, who was in Islamabad at the time of the May 1, 2011 operation, described the atmosphere in the Pakistani capital as “surreal”. He told me that he felt Pakistani officials and the rest of the world seemed to exist in “parallel universes”.
The veteran American diplomat noted that instead of realising the need to be apologetic about the world’s most wanted terrorist being found in their country, Pakistanis angrily protested America’s decision to kill bin Laden on Pakistani soil without informing Pakistani authorities.
As Pakistan’s ambassador to the US at the time, I could not tell Grossman that I agreed with him. But like many Pakistanis who worry about their country’s future, I have often noted my compatriots’ tendency to live in a world all our own.
The rest of the world is clearly concerned about the inadequacy of Pakistan’s efforts in eliminating the jihadis. The spectre of terrorism impacts Pakistan’s economy adversely and makes it difficult for Pakistanis to find jobs or travel abroad. Sri Lanka recently withdrew visa-on-arrival facility from Pakistani citizens, further reducing the number of countries where Pakistanis might travel without a visa.
But these adverse reports barely find mention in Pakistan’s media, which remains preoccupied with the shenanigans of people like Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri. Such is the media noise that Pakistanis are often kept ignorant of how the rest of the world looks at their country and remain confused about considering jihadist terrorism the principal threat to the country’s survival.
Pakistani leaders seem to prefer hyper-nationalist rhetoric and allegations of corruption against their rivals to an honest debate about the country’s loss of direction. Thus, Imran Khan and Qadri are not behaving differently from the way Nawaz Sharif and the lawyers’ movement acted against Zardari in the preceding five years.
Calls for a change of government, even if it is only a few months after its election, serve as a substitute for serious debate about how Pakistan may have lost its direction as a nation. There is virtual denial about real problems like rising extremism, increasing intolerance, widespread violence and the prospect of global isolation.
Denial leads to self-deception. The Pew Global Attitudes Survey recently found that even in Pakistan’s closest ally, China, only 30 per cent of those polled had a positive view of Pakistan. But the poll and its implications were barely discussed in the Pakistani media, which has been focused on the verbal duels between Sharif’s supporters and opponents. Parallel universes indeed!
The writer, director for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute, Washington DC, served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States. He is the author, most recently, of ‘Magnificent Delusions: Pakistan, the United States and an epic history of misunderstanding’
A bubble called Pakistan | The Indian Express | Page 99
Najam Sethi
In the life of every nation-state, Independence Day is celebrated with collective joy and thanksgiving. It is the one day in the life of every country when internal squabbles are buried and the nation rises as one to face the world. Unfortunately, however, this tradition is on the anvil in Pakistan. Imran Khan is trying to turn August 14, 2014, into a day of political division, upheaval and violence. Dr Tahirul Qadri, the Canadian-Pakistani televangelist-cleric, is only marginally less mindful of the sanctity of August 14, having announced that his “revolution” will engulf the political system after August 14 but before August 30.
Both gentlemen are promising nothing less than a “revolution”. The problem is that for Imran Khan a “revolution” only means the replacement of Nawaz Sharif’s regime by Imran Khan’s regime after another round of elections under the constitution while for Dr Qadri it means the replacement of the current constitutional system with an undefined one led by Dr Sahib himself. If this were merely a sign of politics as usual, we would not be worried. But the rhetoric seems ominously like an invitation to a beheading of democracy by the military. That, too, might not be totally unacceptable if the track record of the military in politics could provide a fig leaf of justification. But the three military interventions since independence are primarily responsible for the strategic drift, violent sectarian strife and political turmoil in which Pakistan finds itself today.
It is also unfortunate that Nawaz Sharif, as prime minister, has not been able to display the wisdom and vision expected and is partly responsible for the mess in which we find ourselves. If the military had not been so unnecessarily estranged for a couple of provocative reasons, neither Imran nor Dr Qadri would have dared to stake their political fortunes and adventures on a suitable intervention by it.
No matter. Albeit belated, Mr Sharif is now using his political capital with allies and opposition alike to persuade Imran Khan and Dr Qadri to hold their horses. A national consensus is already evident against any attempt to provoke military intervention. Former president Asif Zardari (PPP), Maulana Fazal ur Rahman (JUI), Asfandyar Wali (ANP), Sirajul Haq (Jamaat i Islami), Altaf Hussain (MQM) and other political luminaries have been roped in to protect the sanctity of August 14. It appears that the government has adopted a carrot and stick policy to deal with the situation. The carrot of detailed scrutiny of a number of electoral constituencies is being offered to Imran Khan and the stick is being brandished before Dr Qadri. Both have unprecedentedly exhorted their militant followers to assault the police if any attempt is made by the government to thwart them. Consequently, the police has filed FIRs and moved in force to surround Dr Qadri’s residence.
Dr Qadri says he will announce his plans on August 10. He is unsure of whether to join Imran Khan – and risk losing the leadership of the “revolutionary” movement to him – or to go it alone and be isolated. Similarly, Imran Khan is aware of the serious fissures in his party and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government over his announced plans. No one wants to resign from the provincial or national parliament and be left stranded. Indeed, the public utterances of party stalwarts signal confusion and disarray. The PTI’s parliamentary spokesmen assure everyone that the PTI abhors violence and will abide by peaceful constitutional norms in making demands while Imran Khan thunders outside parliament about overthrowing the government via street mob power. Deep down, both avengers know that if the military were to intervene because of any anarchy engineered by them, they would not necessarily be its direct beneficiaries.
Most pundits are agreed on one point: the military wants to cut Nawaz Sharif down to size, like it did Asif Zardari, and is principally averse to any direct take-over. It has bluntly signaled its displeasure of certain government policies and is pulling strings to activate disgruntled elements in the opposition and media to help it achieve its objective. It is also now clear that Mr Sharif has finally woken up to the pitfalls of his earlier defiance of the military and may be amenable to a change of course on certain contentious issues.
If this is so, we should see some last minute “adjustments” by all the key players – PMLN government, GHQ and PTI – next week. This could take the form of an “agreement” between the government and PTI over electoral issues and a firm “commitment” to General Raheel Sharif by Nawaz Sharif to stay clear of military-designated areas of policy – which is reflected in a “postponement” of the “tsunami-march revolution”. This may be supplemented by a short stint in the cooler for Dr Qadri and renewed self-exile in Canada because he has unfortunately left no fallback position for himself.
Of course, all these calculations could amount to zero if any of the key players is unreasonably unbending. Then all bets will be off.
- See more at: Independence Day ‹ The Friday Times
A bubble called Pakistan
Barely 14 months after convincingly winning a general election, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government is being asked to resign amid threats of street protests. Cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan and Canada-based Sunni cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri plan separate marches on Islamabad on August 14, Pakistan’s Independence Day. Several politicians and parties known for their close ties to Pakistan’s deep state, the ISI, have announced support for the anti-Sharif protests
Sharif will most likely ride out this first wave of attack. He retains an absolute majority in parliament and, by most accounts, there is no appetite in the country for a military coup. But the protests will weaken Sharif and sap the elected government’s energies, diminishing its effectiveness. That is exactly how the wings of the previous civilian government led by Asif Zardari and Yusuf Raza Gilani were clipped. Then, the judiciary played a critical role in tying up elected leaders in knots though, this time, the judges have yet to get involved.
The military has ruled Pakistan directly for more than half its existence as an independent country. When it can’t govern directly, the military and its intelligence services still want to exert influence, especially over foreign and national security policies. At any given time, there are enough civilian politicians, media personalities or judges willing to do the military’s bidding for this manipulation to persist.
Currently, the military wants Sharif to curb his enthusiasm about normalising ties with India and turn away from Pakistan’s past policy of meddling in Afghanistan’s politics. It also wants an end to the treason trial of former dictator General Pervez Musharraf.
In the Pakistani military’s worldview, coup-making should not result in a trial for treason. The armed forces represent patriotism, even if their errors result in the loss of half the country’s territory, as happened in 1971 with the loss of Bangladesh. Civilians, on the other hand, can be judged traitors merely for advocating a different path forward for the country.
Ironically, the latest effort to destabilise an elected civilian government is taking place at a time when the Pakistan army is ostensibly waging war against jihadi terrorists in North Waziristan. The chief of army staff, General Raheel Sharif, has promised that the war will continue until all terrorist groups are eliminated. Usually, war unites political rivals, but there has been no effort by the military and its civilian political allies, or for that matter by Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), to overcome polarisation.
The current political chaos reminds me of a conversation I had with the then US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Marc Grossman, soon after the covert American operation that resulted in discovering and killing Osama bin Laden in the Pakistani garrison town of Abbottabad.
Grossman, who was in Islamabad at the time of the May 1, 2011 operation, described the atmosphere in the Pakistani capital as “surreal”. He told me that he felt Pakistani officials and the rest of the world seemed to exist in “parallel universes”.
The veteran American diplomat noted that instead of realising the need to be apologetic about the world’s most wanted terrorist being found in their country, Pakistanis angrily protested America’s decision to kill bin Laden on Pakistani soil without informing Pakistani authorities.
As Pakistan’s ambassador to the US at the time, I could not tell Grossman that I agreed with him. But like many Pakistanis who worry about their country’s future, I have often noted my compatriots’ tendency to live in a world all our own.
The rest of the world is clearly concerned about the inadequacy of Pakistan’s efforts in eliminating the jihadis. The spectre of terrorism impacts Pakistan’s economy adversely and makes it difficult for Pakistanis to find jobs or travel abroad. Sri Lanka recently withdrew visa-on-arrival facility from Pakistani citizens, further reducing the number of countries where Pakistanis might travel without a visa.
But these adverse reports barely find mention in Pakistan’s media, which remains preoccupied with the shenanigans of people like Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri. Such is the media noise that Pakistanis are often kept ignorant of how the rest of the world looks at their country and remain confused about considering jihadist terrorism the principal threat to the country’s survival.
Pakistani leaders seem to prefer hyper-nationalist rhetoric and allegations of corruption against their rivals to an honest debate about the country’s loss of direction. Thus, Imran Khan and Qadri are not behaving differently from the way Nawaz Sharif and the lawyers’ movement acted against Zardari in the preceding five years.
Calls for a change of government, even if it is only a few months after its election, serve as a substitute for serious debate about how Pakistan may have lost its direction as a nation. There is virtual denial about real problems like rising extremism, increasing intolerance, widespread violence and the prospect of global isolation.
Denial leads to self-deception. The Pew Global Attitudes Survey recently found that even in Pakistan’s closest ally, China, only 30 per cent of those polled had a positive view of Pakistan. But the poll and its implications were barely discussed in the Pakistani media, which has been focused on the verbal duels between Sharif’s supporters and opponents. Parallel universes indeed!
The writer, director for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute, Washington DC, served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States. He is the author, most recently, of ‘Magnificent Delusions: Pakistan, the United States and an epic history of misunderstanding’
A bubble called Pakistan | The Indian Express | Page 99
